UFC on ESPN 16 - Fight Island - Dubai

[mrpickem]

Decent ESPN card tonight, looking to rebound after poor performance last week on 253.

Let's Fukn Go!!



Randoms thoughts...

• McGhee -130 ...Carlos Condit is too easy to take down. He's L5, with 3 by sub. McGee has lost 2 straight (one a split decision) and may be fighting for his job! I believe he will utilize superior jujitsu and likely win with a sub...or at worse dominate ground control and cruise to easy decision. Probably the strongest play tonight.
• GDR -137 ...GDR has lost 2 since 2011, each to Amanda Nunes who is generally considered the women's GOAT. GDR will be bigger in this fight. probably by around 10 lbs when they enter the cage. Pena will attempt to to get the fight to the floor, but I don't see her having much success with that as GDR has SOLID takedown defense. Pena will need to strike with GDR to win, and that's not likely at all. GDR is a seasoned kickboxer and very high level mma striker.
• De Castro -200 / under 1.5 -103 plus various props ...De Castro has serious power. Of his 6 wins, 5 are from knockouts. He's coming off a loss to Greg Hardy who also has insane power. De Castro looked timid vs Hardy, but Felipe is not nearly as athletic as Hardy. De Castro is a fine counter puncher and will punish Felipe. Felipe is also coming off an L, but to Sergey Spivak and via decision. I think De Castro can get the KO early, possibly within the first 1-2 rounds. His overhand right is oddly disguised for a heavyweight fighter. De Castro by KO , under 1.5, ITD and a few other props I will mix in.
• Phillips ITD -150 ... Kyler Phillips - Late stoppage, likely 3rd round. Else has a real chance to finish this fight in round 1. As a last-minute replacement with a hard weight cut he has to gas quickly which dictates Phillips being the big favorite and likely winning late ;~/
• Frey +115 ...Loma is the better striker here but I the size difference may be too much. I think any kickboxing advantage that Loma has over Frey will be mitigated if Frey decides to press Loma against the cage or take her down. I was already leaning Frey, but the weigh ins and faceoffs confirmed it. Loma straight up looks pudgy at 115 while Frey looked ripped. I think Frey can turn this into an MMA fight, and I definitely favor her grappling and size advantage in this matchup. However, if Loma can make this a kickboxing match, her quicker and more accurate striking may be too much for Frey. Still I will back the dog here.

I think Holly has seen too many wars and although she generally win in these situations and only loses at the highest level I believe her time is up and Aldana will get her hand raised in the main

My recent record(s)

• 9/26 - UFC 253 [8-14 -10.05u]
• 9/19 - ESPN+ 36 [11-9-1 +8.35u
• 9/12 - ESPN+ 35 [11-9 +25.8u]
• 9/05 - ESPN+ 34 [9-4 +9.72u]
• 8/28 - ESPN+33 [10-4 +7.83u]
• 8/22 - ESPN 15 [11-4 +9.15u]
• 8/15 - UFC 252 [12-9 +6.07u]
• 8/08 - ESPN+ 32 [10-12 -7.6u]
• 8/01 - ESPN+ 31 [8-9-1 -1.41u]
• 7/18 - ESPN+ 30 [10-6 +12.85u]
• 7/15 - ESPN 14 [8-12 +1.06u]
• 7/11 - UFC 251 [5-10 -10.93u]

Total for last 12 cards: [113-102 +50.84u]

 

[mrpickem]

​	Fight #1​
	2001 Jessin Ayari* -110 vs Luigi Vendramini 2/1.82 2001 Jessin Ayari/Luigi Vendramini* Over 2½ -132 1.32/1

 

[mrpickem]

​	[0-2 -3.32]​
	1902 Casey Kenney* -345 vs Heili Alateng 4.14/1.2

Didn't get out the gate well, really like next one but odds too high to really pound it.

Yes / no...would you?

 

[mrpickem]

​	[1-2 -2.12]​
	1840 Lookboonmee (scorecards = no action)* -165 vs Yu Frey (scorecards = no action) if fight goes to scorecards all wagers are no action 2.31/1.4 1802 Loma Lookboonmee* -127 vs Jinh Yu Frey 1.65/1.3

First win of the night, lets celebrate. Decided to flip to Loma in next.

 

[mrpickem]

​	[2-2-1 -0.82]​
	1733 Williams wins by TKO/KO* +255 vs Any other result .8/2.04

Not really feeling this next one, so just a token play

 

[mrpickem]

​	[2-3-1 -1.62]​
	1601 Joshua Culibao* +355 vs Charles Jourdain .88/3.12

.

 

[mrpickem]

We are almost ready to roll as the best action is in the final 6 bouts coming after this one....

 

[mrpickem]

[2-3-2 -1.62]
1501 Court McGee* -135 vs Carlos Condit
4.86/3.6

 

[mrpickem]

[2-4-2 -6.48]
1409 Todorovic wins inside distance* +130 vs Not Todorovic inside distance
1/1.3
1442 Todorovic points handicap* -3½ -225 vs Townsend points handicap
any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter, see sportsbook rules for grading details
4.5/2

 

[mrpickem]

[4-4-2 -3.18]
1309 Phillips wins inside distance* -170 vs Not Phillips inside distance
4.42/2.6
1302 Kyler Phillips* -355 vs Cameron Else
3.55/1

 

[mrpickem]

Finally went positive, but now I'm heading out so here's the rest of the card. Good luck men.

:cheers6:

[6-4-2 +0.42]

1239 De Randamie (scorecards = no action)* -225 vs Pena (scorecards = no action)
if fight goes to scorecards all wagers are no action
11.25/5
1241 De Randamie points handicap* -3½ +155 vs Pena points handicap
any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter, see sportsbook rules for grading details
1/1.55
1201 Germaine de Randamie* -150 vs Julianna Pena
4.5/3
1102 Yorgan De Castro* -210 vs Carlos Felipe
5.25/2.5
1101 Carlos Felipe/Yorgan De Castro* Under 1½ +102
1/1.02
1109 De Castro wins inside distance* -105 vs Not De Castro inside distance
1.89/1.8
1001 Irene Aldana* +112 vs Holly Holm
2/2.24
1

 

[albundy2127]

What a trash performance by De Castro. Fat ass cost me my parlay.

 

[mrpickem]

Yep DeCastro was out of shape and no heart.

GDR saved my night but still losing night(very small)

Last Night: [9-8-2 -0.17u]