UFC on ESPN 14 ~ Fight Island

[mrpickem]

Huge card, but only a couple good fights. Still there is potential to bank!

Here's the card with a few early leans...

 

[mrpickem]

First 2 fights are big chalk vs newcomers that should win. I'm gonna parlay to 2 big favs risking 3u. I will bet the first fight to take advantage of reduced juice, then roll proceeds into the 2nd fight, so technically I guess it's 2 plays...but whatever.

​	First fight...​
	2402 Nathaniel Wood -405 vs John Castaneda 3/.74

 

[Andy]

Gl on your plays

 

[mrpickem]

​	2nd leg next​
	2302 Ramazan Emeev -435 vs Niklas Stolze 3.74/.86

 

[mrpickem]

2 boring decision wins, but it pays

​	[2-0 +1.6]​
	2211 Kianzad wins by 3 round decision +110 vs Not Kianzad by 3 round decision 1.8/1.98

 

[mrpickem]

​
	2101 Raphael Pessoa +230 vs Tanner Boser 1/2.3

Lean toward Boser but betting Pessoa +230. Both guys can turn your lights out and they are more evenly matched than the odds suggest imo. Common opponent is Cyril Gane, who submitted Pessoa very quickly and gave Boser a comprehensive points loss (although Tanner looked spry early).

 

[mrpickem]

​	[3-1 +2.58]​
	2001 Mike Grundy +160 vs Movsar Evloev 1.5/2.4 2001 Mike Grundy/Movsar Evloev Over 2½ -260 2.6/1

Love this matchup, two skilled fighters with only a single loss between them. It's a 50/50 fight so I'm taking Grundy +160 and also taking over 2.5 rounds.

 

[mrpickem]

​	[4-2 +2.08]​
	1909 Aspinall wins inside distance -130 vs Not Aspinall inside distance .91/.7 1936 Fight won’t start round 3 -145 vs Collier / Aspinall starts round 3 1.16/.8

 

[mrpickem]

all favs so far, dont see it changing herebut odds too high
[6-2 +3.58]
1802 Nicolas Dalby -290 vs Jesse Ronson
1.74/.60

 

[mrpickem]

​	[6-3 +1.84]​
	1701 Jai Herbert* -120 vs Francisco Trinaldo 3/2.5

 

[mrpickem]

​	[6-4 -1.16]​
	1601 Rhys McKee +775 vs Khamzat Chimaev .6/4.65

 

[mrpickem]

​	[6-5 -1.76]​
	1501 Peter Sobotta +112 vs Alex Oliveira 2.45/2.74

 

[mrpickem]

​	[6-6 -4.21​
	1405 Craig wins inside distance +110 vs Not Craig inside distance 2.2/2.42 1401 Paul Craig/Gadzhimurad Antigulov Under 1½ -137 1.37/1

​

 

[mrpickem]

​	[8-6 -0.79]​
	1307 Esparza wins by 3 round decision +210 vs Not Esparza by 3 round decision 1/2.1

 

[mrpickem]

​	[9-6 +1.31]​
	1205 Werdum wins inside distance +370 vs Not Werdum inside distance .5/1.85 1201 Fabricio Werdum/Alexander Gustafsson Under 2½ -108 1.08/1.00

Gus is absolutely not a lock, he is shot and washed up. Don't be surprised when he gets tripped in the clinch and gets arm barred. Stay away from anything big.

 

[pb278817]

Well you nailed that one

 

[mogo]

Tell me how the next one ends!

 

[mrpickem]

Nothing on next one, slight lean over. Was going Rob in main but close to 50/50 fight and odds are better for Till. Someone will sleep in the main.

​	[11-6 +4.16]​
	1005 Till wins inside distance* +275 vs Not Till inside distance 1/2.75 1001 Darren Till/Robert Whittaker* Under 4½ -112 3.36/3

​

 

[mrpickem]

Win lose or draw Nog is a warrior. The OG

 

[HUNT]

Win lose or draw Nog is a warrior. The OG

SHOGUN in his prime was something else...his bombs were shaking the seats.

NOG always stays in it...warrior.

 

[mrpickem]

[11-8 -0.2u]

Well damn, that was a shitty ending to finish basically even on the night.