UFC on ABC 5 ~ Jacksonville

[mrpickem]

Nice early afternoon card on network TV today in Jville.



Had a decent week last week:

 

[mrpickem]

Early Prelims:

• Brundage is the more experienced fighter and has all the tools needed to get the win. If he plays his game and gets Dumas on the ground...he can control the fight, dominate the scorecards and maybe even find a sub. Dumas will have a good chance if he can make it a slugfest. His accuracy could be the difference and his chin isn't as far gone.
• Emmers is the more polished boxer and should have a good chance to grind out a decision win with his technical striking advantage. Emmers has face wrestlers in the past and still has never been taken down. Jenkins will definitely be looking for a takedown and the result(s) will prove a huge decider in who win. I'll back Emmers to keep it standing and prove to polished for Jenkins.
• Peek / Mariscal will both get after it early on with Peek only seeing round 2 once in his last 5 and twice in his 8-fight career. Big difference will be whether "Machine Gun" can withstand Peek's early onslaught and absorb some of his power without getting finished. I personally think Peek gets him out of there early.
• Zhumagulov is known to slow down later in fights and has cut weight 3 times in two months and twice in the last seven days. If Van can avoid being held down, I'll back the younger more explosive fighter to get the biggest win of his career.

Brendan Porker :doggie:

 

[mrpickem]

My early action...

UFC on ABC 5​

• 3/2.07 Cody Brundage -145
• 1/1.75 Cody Brundage by Submission +175
• 3/1.47 JAMALL EMMERS -204
• 3/1.71 JENKINS vs EMMERS o2½ -175
• 2/2.00 TREVOR PEEK KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +100
• 1.50/3 TREVOR PEEK IN ROUND 1 +200
• 2.22/4 Joshua Van +180

 

[mrpickem]

Prelims on ESPN

• 3/3.15 GILLIAN ROBERTSON +105
• 3/2.50 MATEUSZ REBECKI -120
• 5/2.20 RANDY BROWN -227
• 3/4.65 Philip Rowe +155

 

[mrpickem]

Main Card:​

• Brendan Allen (21-5) vs Bruno Silva (23-8)...Silva's very dangerous with big power if he can land something big, but Allen has been on a tear over his last 4 and so long as he remains patient he should eventually find himself in great position as Silva;s cardio is very questionable.
• David Onama (10-2) vs Gabriel Santos (10-1)...Onama may have a chance as long as they're upright, but Santos will want to tak ethe fight down and Onama's TDD is mediocre at best. Santos' hands are decent as well, so he may be patient for awhile, which make me like the over as well.
• Austin Lane (12-3) vs Justin Tafa (6-3)...That fat tub of goo that is Justin Tafa has surprised me on several occasions, bothwith uncanny slow motion but well-timed power shots as well as his crazy durability. Tafa has added a heavy calf kick to his arsenal and when followed with his overhand bomb, I envision a bad night for Lane in his UFC debut.

 

[mrpickem]

Main Card Action:

[4-6 -3.09u] with Rowe still pending.

• 3/1.36 BRENDAN ALLEN -220
• 2/1.90 BRENDAN ALLEN KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -105
• 3/1.43 GABRIEL SANTOS -210
• 3/4.05 Santos vs Onama o2½ 135
• 3/1.58 JUSTIN TAFA -190

 

[mrpickem]

WOW, WHAT A KO
UFC on ABC 5
3/2.07 Cody Brundage -145
1/1.75 Cody Brundage by Submission +175
3/1.47 JAMALL EMMERS -204
3/1.71 JENKINS vs EMMERS o2½ -175
2/2.00 TREVOR PEEK KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +100
1.50/3 TREVOR PEEK IN ROUND 1 +200
2.22/4 Joshua Van +180
3/3.15 GILLIAN ROBERTSON +105
3/2.50 MATEUSZ REBECKI -120
5/2.20 RANDY BROWN -227
3/4.65 Philip Rowe +155
3/1.36 BRENDAN ALLEN -220
2/1.90 BRENDAN ALLEN KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -105
3/1.43 GABRIEL SANTOS -210
3/4.05 Santos vs Onama o2½ 135
3/1.58 JUSTIN TAFA -190
[6-9 -8.83u]

Co-Main Event:​

• Amanda Ribas (11-3) vs Maycee Barber (12-2) ...At first, I looked at these odds and scratched my head, but if you think about it, Ribas is the perfect foil for Barber. She has great TDD (86%) and should be able to dictate where the action takes place. Also, I do think Amanda has evolved her game a lot more over the last 1-2 years. I still thing the line is a little high but definitely see Ribas getting it done.

• 6/3.16 AMANDA RIBAS -190
• 3/1.64 BARBER vs RIBAS o2½ -183

 

[mrpickem]

Wow Amanda got fucked up there. Crazy good fight for 125lb chicks. THE FINISH

Love Ilia next, but there's really no way to play it at these odds so I'm going to throw a hook on Emmett, he's durable and hits very hard. Topuria has never faced this level or a main event so no telling how he responds. Dogs barking last 2.

Main Event:​

• 2/3.74 JOSH EMMETT vs ILIA TOPURIA o2½ +187
• 2/5.68 JOSH EMMETT +284