UFC Fight Night ~ Back in Vegas 5/30

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Not a lot of great fights but T-Wood/Burns should carry the show!

UFC on ESPN 9 - Welterweight 5 rounds - UFC APEX - Las Vegas, Nevada - ESPN

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Live dogs...Carlyle, Abreu, Ivanov

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Random notes...

Hill vs Abreu -125 on Hill. Taller by 4 inches, longer reach by 5 inches. People are all over Abreu so you know that usually means fade. Here's 3 reasons.
  1. Likely to be the next big thing and easy tail him at this price... such great value for the better striker
  2. He will push the pace against a weaker gas tank in Abreu and probably takes take over after Rnd1
  3. His ground game isn’t the worst and really only needs to be weary of the left hook
Spike Carly Love the plus money on spike. Dude is a kick ass ginger who I think can knockout us some $. May be some over-hype here but I'll chance it at plus money.

Burns vs Woolley ..Everyone likes a side here, but I think under 4.5 rounds is the better play. Tyrone has something to prove and will push hard, Burns never backs up so someone is getting knock the fuck out!!!

Ivanov is a slow boring ass fighter! I think this will frustrate Sakai in the fight. Plus Ivanov has the fucking crimson chin on him & could eat punches all day. We all know with HW one shot will do it, so I like Ivanov's chances for landing a big hook and cashing in the weakest co-main in recent memory.

May be playing Schevchenko. Her sister & her trained for Katlyn in her sisters last title defense so it’s as if Anontiona has trained for this fight twice & her sister definitely gave her pointers on what to watch in this one. I think Antonioa wins this especially if it goes to the judges I can just see them wanting the bigger name.

I do this for fun but obviously want to turn a profit. I'll be back at fight time with fight by fight picks and hope to build off nice +10.5u performance 2 weeks ago.
 
First play​
1502 Antonina Shevchenko* -130 vs Katlyn Chookagian
any venue has action
3.12/2.4

Shev is the more physical, she'll have an advantage in the clinch and in power. I think she will throw more & land the more impactful blows. Grabbing it now at -130 as I could see this moving to 40 or 50.

considering...Brok Weaver +305/Under 2.5 +155. Not really a Weaver fan but he may well be live in this fight and +305 seems very generous for what could be an all-out brawl. Roberts has looked good, but against lesser competition. Very likely this fight ends in a finish given the circumstances so also strong lean to the under.

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Fight #1​
2001 Vince Morales -102 vs Chris Gutierrez
1.7/1.67


wow, over half the fights have shown reverse line movement, guess the pro's and joe's are not on the same sides. first fight shows lightest difference but several later are quite significantat this point

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[0-2 -2.5u]​
  1. 1801 Brandon Royval +135 vs Tim Elliott
    .6/.81
  2. 1801 Brandon Royval/Tim Elliott Under 2½ +112
    3/3.36
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[3-2 +4.27u]​
1601 Gabriel Green* +275 vs Daniel Rodriguez
.6/1.65
Not really liking this one but not laying -315 so token play

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[3-3 +3.67u]
from earlier...​
1502 Antonina Shevchenko -130 vs Katlyn Chookagian
any venue has action
3.12/2.4
and adding....
Katlyn Chookagian VS Antonina Shevchenko
Over 2½ -400
5/1.25

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[5-4 +4u]​
1301 Brok Weaver* +320 vs Roosevelt Roberts
1/3.2
Not real big on Broc but gotta take the juice

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[4-6 -3.5u]
  1. 1002 Tyron Woodley* -165 vs Gilbert Burns
    2.31/1.4
  2. 1001 Gilbert Burns/Tyron Woodley* Under 4½ -172
    15.45/8.98
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