UFC Fight Night 80 Play (Thursday, 12/10)

[Grind_4_Mine]

Michael Chiesa -125 & -130 (big)

Lotta respect for Jim Miller (#14 lightweight) and the way he handles himself in and out of the octagon, but he's long in the tooth for the fight game at 32 (lot of mileage) and has won just five of his last 10 bouts since 2011. Miller won by split decision in his last fight over 36-yr-old Danny Castillo back in late July '15, breaking a two-fight losing streak (one of those was Cerrone). Worth noting Miller took the fight on short notice to fill in for Khabilov due to visa issues. Chiesa caught a bad break in the Lauzon fight back in Sept '14 after some great back-and-forth exchanges opened up a nasty cut over his eye for a doctor stoppage, but bounced back with an impressive UD win over the formidable Mitch Clarke last time out in early April '15. Chiesa, at 27, is a fighter entering the prime of his career who I feel is about to go on a major upswing in 2016 and eventually crack the top 15 lightweight rankings.

Being a former wrestler with black belts in BJJ and TKD, Miller is one of the more well-rounded lightweights in the division with a ton of octagon experience. Despite having won by submission 13 times, he's an underrated southpaw striker with a powerful punch and heavy leg kicks. All that said, I love Chiesa's size and strength advantage over Miller. You basically have one of the biggest lightweights in the division vs one of the smallest, and I fully expect Chiesa to bully Miller in the clinch with lots of elbows and knees on his way to a grinding win by decision. Miller is going to have a hard time getting Chiesa to the ground, and even if he does, it will be tough for him to land a submission. Chiesa also showed off an iron chin in the Lauzon fight which should come in handy up against a tricky southpaw. I've watched Chiesa come up through TUF as a long, wiry talented grappler with shaky striking ability who loved to take the back for a rear naked... but he's gotten a lot stronger physically and has come such long way with his striking (although a bit unorthodox) while earning his purple belt in BJJ. The kid is one of the hungriest fighters out there imo, and this is his chance to get the ball rolling again in such a deep division. The only way I see him losing this fight is if he loses his head and gets into wild stand-up exchanges as he did with Lauzon which led to the doctor stoppage. I'd also recommend Chiesa by decision (probably around +200 or so but haven't checked), fwiw.

GL

 

[Schrute]

Gonna ride along...great writeup Grind

 

[Dollaz]

My thoughts are pretty much equal.

The guys Miller beats he typically outclasses on the ground. I was suprised that he handled Lauzon so easily in the first 2 rounds, but that was 3 years ago. I do think Miller is on the downslope of his career. I would be shocked if Miller caught him on the feet, Cheisa should be able to dictate the action on the feet. He can keep it at range, but if it gets in the clinch, Cheisa is surprisingly comfortable in the clinch (for a taller/lanky fighter)

I have a ton of respect for Cheisa. probably more than he deserves to be honest. But, I don't think he gets knocked out and I think he's comfortable enough on the ground to be able to compete. I don't see Miller taking him down and staying on top of him.

I think the realistic chance for Miller to win is to pick him apart on the feet, but lets be real; when has Miller ever done that vs. capable fighters?

Best of luck Grind.

 

[Dollaz]

Nice grind!

 

[Schrute]

Thanks for the winner Grind

 

[scarf31]

Great call, Grind...followed along and made a few dead presidents as well. That write-up was solid and pretty spot on...:shake:

 

[cogenman]

Good call grind. Followed you for a little. Thanks man. :cheers3:

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

Thanks fellas, glad to to hear it. Certainly didn't expect Chiesa to submit Miller, but not surprised at all it was by way of rear naked choke as that is his sig sub. Chiesa used his dominance in the clinch to get those early take-downs in the first and the second, but going for them so early in each round made me nervous as hell as I expected Chiesa to score some points by battering him with a cple mins of short elbows and knees in the clinch first. Miller caught Chiesa with a short elbow from the bottom in rd2 which opened up a cut that had me thinking deja vu back to the Lauzon fight, but this is Vegas, where they rarely have doc stoppages. In that first round Miller reversed position and got Chiesa's back for a body lock which won him the round and in the second almost knee barred him before Chiesa was able to roll out of it and stunned him with a punch to the temple. Chiesa is definitely balls to the wall and active in his fights, which can sometimes blow up in his face, but will continue to ride him out on his way to top 5 of the division.