I've been up and down the past few months at betting mma. Luckily hitting a few huge dogs or parlays have kept me barely treading water. I did sit down and really cap this card so I hope that equals a profitable card.
Jarrod Sanders -150
Sterling/Linekar +106
Gadelha/White -110
Story/Barboza -120
Duke +110
Tibeau/Salas +200
Gadelha/Lahdemaki u2.5 +150
White/Martins under 1.5 +110
Linekar/ Ozkilic u2.5 +140
Though Sanders is smaller, he is a dominant wrestler and Cedeno looked clueless on the ground vs. an inferior ground game from Chavez. The possibility of Sanders getting dropped early is out there, but he was a big guy for that lower division and should have the big cardio advantage. I see Sanders surviving early and then dominating the back half of the fight on the ground.
Sterling is a very good prospect. He's a guy I can see jumping up the rankings really quick. Strong wrestling base, great athlete, and trains at Serra/Longo who have been on fire. Viana basically has one chance and that's the overhand right that he throws over and over. I think Sterling will be smart/quick enough to avoid the overhand right and should use his athleticism and wrestling base to overwhelm Viana. Parlaying it with Linekar. Linekar should dominate this fight and get the KO/TKO.
Gadelha. Just an incredible ground game and that is the only thing her opponent has going for her so Gadelha should easily dominate this fight. I think it's dominating enough that I took the under at + odds as well. Parlayed Gadelha with White. White/Martins could be most exciting fight of the night. That promises to be a standup war. Both guys are very diverse strikers, but White has a big advantage in boxing and seems to have a stronger chin (though Martins getting knocked out by Barboza is no knock). Martins just seems to get hit way too much for me to pick him in the fight, even against a guy like Larson. I just see two aggressive guys and the better chin ending the fight early.
Story. Mafra weighed in 5 pounds under the limit which should mean that Story is the much bigger fighter. Mafra is a talented prospect, but guys thrown in the fire too soon lose to Story. Story is a tough, underated vet. Beat Jake Ellenberger, Hendricks, Alves and his recent losses have been split decisions (thought fight with Gastelum was really close and Kevin G has looked fantastic) Barboza is just a crazy talent and I don't see Dunham being able to test the chin like some other fighters have been able to do.
Duke. I'm not impressed by either of these fighters, but I feel Duke is on the way up while Smith is on the way down. Smith just looked done in her last fight, while Duke has moved over to the Ronda Rousey team. Im banking on that team being able to refine her skills and teach her how to use her range to win fights.
Tibeu. Concerned that he really got flattened for the first time in his career and how he responds to that, but Tibeu is just a grinder. He's a huge guy that is just a gamer. I've just never been impressed with Healy and he's lost 3 fights in a row. The performance vs. Jim Miller may have been the biggest shocker I've ever seen, but he hasn't been able to repeat that performance. Parlayed him with Salas. Proctor is decent in everything, but he will not be super impressive in anything. I just don't see Proctor being able to withstand the wrestling game of Salas, who has also been improving his standup.
I also like the favorite in Cerrone. Having all these favorites is probably a bad thing for me, especially on the undercard, but they aren't huge underdogs. A lot of these fighters are pretty even and I expect a good night of fights. Hopefully profitable.
