Ufc fight night 27: Condit vs. Kampmann ii

Son_of_Balrog

Son_of_Balrog

Pretty much a regular
5 dimes GOGOGOGOGOGO.

[TABLE="class: LineTable, width: 713"]
<tbody>[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"]- Wednesday, August 28, 2013 5:00 PM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]2101 Abel Trujillo[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-120[/TD]
[TD]Over 1½ -190[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]2102 Roger Bowling[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+100[/TD]
[TD]Under 1½ +150[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]2001 Zak Cummings[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-120[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ +140[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]2002 Ben Alloway[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+100[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ -180[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1901 Jason High[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-115[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ -215[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1902 James Head[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-105[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ +165[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1801 Hatsu Hioki[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-130[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ -190[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1802 Darren Elkins[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+110[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ +150[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1701 Brandon Thatch[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-265[/TD]
[TD]Over 1½ -185[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1702 Justin Edwards[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+225[/TD]
[TD]Under 1½ +145[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1601 Papy Abedi[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+230[/TD]
[TD]Over 1½ -150[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1602 Dylan Andrews[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-270[/TD]
[TD]Under 1½ +110[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1501 Takeya Mizugaki[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+120[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ -195[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1502 Erik Perez[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-140[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ +155[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1401 Robert McDaniel[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+375[/TD]
[TD]Over 1½ -160[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1402 Brad Tavares[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-470[/TD]
[TD]Under 1½ +130[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1301 Robert Whittaker[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-130[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ -185[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1302 Court McGee[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+110[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ +155[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1201 Kelvin Gastelum[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-230[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ -205[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1202 Brian Melancon[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+190[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ +165[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1101 Donald Cerrone[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-150[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ -225[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR NonAlt, bgcolor: #E9EEEE"]
[TD]1102 Rafael dos Anjos[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+130[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ +175[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LHR"]
[TD="colspan: 5"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1001 Martin Kampmann[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]+210[/TD]
[TD]Over 2½ -205[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: LR Alt, bgcolor: #EEE8ED"]
[TD]1002 Carlos Condit[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]-250[/TD]
[TD]Under 2½ +165[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
This one really creeping up quick on us. Had a busy weekend and am just getting around to looking at this full card. First glance I really like Perez and am eyeing Melancon and Elkins. Always love to fade Japanese fighters coming over week of fight but I guess Hioki will have two weeks of prep in the US for his fight against Elkins.

Played Hioki / Elkins o2.5 -180 (BOL) to win 1.5u
 
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IM not a fan of Gastulem at all. I just think he's raw with heart. But, beating Hall isn't that impressive now, is it?

Head -105
Edwards +195
Perez -145
Melancon +180
McGee +115
Cerrone/Condit +120
Cerrone/Condit/Andrews +198

Will be looking at Andrew inside distance and fight to not go distance
 
Am eyeing Andrews too Dollaz but need to rewatch Papy's fights. Papy is 35, having his first fight in the US, and is on the last fight of his UFC contract. I do recall his chin being very questionable and was clipped early in both the Alves and Head fights.
 
Andrews fight doesn't go distance opened at -260. Almost feel there's better value in u1.5 @ +110 with how easy ol' Papy crumbles when he gets hit. Thoughts Dollaz?

After re-watching the Quinlan fight I was very impressed with Andrews take down defense and how easily he was able to get back to its feet after being taken down. If he can stay away from Papy's judo game its basically a matter of time before he clips him.

One more edit. Andrews looks like a fucking giant compared to Papy at the weigh in. Forgot Papy is moving back to middleweight for this fight.
 
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Condit -250 sees low right? I mean he went the distance in his last few fights, could have lost the diaz one as easily as he won it but also could have won that hendricks fight very easily. I think his toolshed is a lot larger than Martins.
 
Im going to take Condit by finish.

-260 for Andrews fight to not go distance is disappointing, but ceratinly not shocking. I don't see very likely outcome outside of Andrews by KO/TKO. I will look into that.

the U1.5 may be appealing. I find it hard to judge how long a fight lasts, usually just stick to inside the distance or not unless I see a nice + sign.
 
Definitely eyeing Condit TKO/KO which went back to +175 yesterday. Probably going to wait to see what kind of Prop trash BOL puts up today before locking this in. FWIW Kampmann definitely won the wrestling / grappling battle in their first fight and likely would have won in a more decisive fashion had he not given up position multiple times recklessly going for guillotines. That fight was over four years ago and Condit's TDD defense no doubt has improved due to the competition he's faced but I could definitely see Kampmann winning some kind of close decision if he's able to grind out a few take downs at the end of rounds. I think there's a little value in Condit -260 but I see more value in getting +175 TKO/KO on a dynamic striker getting 5 rounds against Kampmann's questionable chin especially considering Condit's proven track record on being able to hurt guys deep in fights.
 
Yeah, I could see Kampman grinding out a decision, but he's never been 5 rounds and that always a concern.
 
I went big on Condit inside distance at +130. I like getting that only 40 cents cheaper with sub option.
 
I know Gastelum is dropping from middleweight but, to me, there was zero size difference between the two at the weigh in. Melancon is an animal and I seriously doubt Gastelum will be able to put a matt hughes type wrestle fuck on him in this fight.
 
How is there an "unintentional illegal knee" ?

Seems like you pretty much throw a knee, or you don't throw a knee.
 
so two judges can sit next to each other, watch the same fight (McGee vs. Whittaker), and each score 30-27 for opposite fighters. mmmmmmmmmmmkay.

I swear this shit is fixed sometimes.
 
P-Unit said:
so two judges can sit next to each other, watch the same fight (McGee vs. Whittaker), and each score 30-27 for opposite fighters. mmmmmmmmmmmkay.

I swear this shit is fixed sometimes.
Click to expand...
Just like boxing...its all about the connections
 
Son_of_Balrog said:
I know Gastelum is dropping from middleweight but, to me, there was zero size difference between the two at the weigh in. Melancon is an animal and I seriously doubt Gastelum will be able to put a matt hughes type wrestle fuck on him in this fight.
Click to expand...

Maybe I need to get my eyes checked or Gastelum put 25+ pounds on during re-hydration but he looked massive compared to Melacon during the fight.
 
Took a Cerrone / Condit parlay for 1u. Have a couple parlays for peanuts that need Condit to complete so might as well gambool it up instead of straight betting Cowboy. Sure i'll regret it, hopefully we see a mentally solid Cowboy tonight.
 
Always a dice roll with Cerrone on the mental aspect. Dominating leg kick game for the first minute then just forgets to throw em for the next 9 minutes.
 
Carlos! Nice job Sob in the KO/tko.

Kampman is a fighter I respect. But he gasses and his chin is suspect and that makes it difficult for him. GSP could out wrestle Condit for 5 rounds. Kampman could for 1.5 rounds tops.
 
Dollaz said:
Carlos! Nice job Sob in the KO/tko.

Kampman is a fighter I respect. But he gasses and his chin is suspect and that makes it difficult for him. GSP could out wrestle Condit for 5 rounds. Kampman could for 1.5 rounds tops.
Click to expand...

:cheers:

Agree respect the shit out of both Kampmann and Condit both guys put heart and soul into every fight they're in. Condit definitely showed he's improving in the wrestling game and made Kampmann work much harder for those take downs this time around. Lets have Condit v winner of Lawler v Rory (A fight i'm hoping we get like +300 on Robbie because everyone in the world thinks Rory will steamroll him) for a title shot.

Also agree 100% on the judging. Excluding that 30-27 Whittaker score I was shocked at how well the fights were scored considering how close some fights were.
 
Fucking Perez though. Hard not to bee too mad at the kid. He has a crazy work rate and heart but just ran into a super crafty vet who knew how to grind out a close fight. Mizugaki's TDD defense in the 2nd and 3rd rounds was absolutely awesome and beyond clutch to win that fight.
 
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