Performify's Picks for UFC 84
My performance at UFC 83 of 3-1 for +3.4 units brought my recent running total (started after UFC 75, thanks to reader feedback) to 31-22 for results of +14.775 units.
Those interested in more information should check out the series of articles in our
MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering Guide series:
All odds taken from
Bodog at time of writing.
BJ Penn (-250) vs. Sean Sherk (+200)
I provided a detailed breakdown of this fight in the May issue of
FIGHT! Magazine (available here on MMAjunkie: "
Breaking down Penn vs. Sherk"). Let's take a quick look at both fighters and then update my thoughts since last month.
Sean Sherk is 34 years old and holds a 31-2-1 MMA record, 6-2 in the UFC. His extremely impressive record is highlighted by two wins over a very young Karo Parisyan (in 2000 and 2001) and unanimous decision wins in his past three UFC fights, which included Nick Diaz, Kenny Florian and Hermes Franca.
Sherk's only losses are to world-class fighters: a TKO loss to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 56 and a close unanimous decision loss to Matt Hughes at UFC 42. Both of his losses come from his days as a welterweight; he's undefeated at 155 pounds. He has won 15 of his past 16 fights, starting the streak after his loss to Hughes in 2003.
Sherk has fought in numerous organizations besides the UFC, including Pancrase, Extreme Combat, Reality Submission Fighting, and he even had one fight in PRIDE. Sherk has elite cardio, excellent strength and amazing quickness. He's an impressive, explosive wrestler with tremendous takedowns.
Despite his dominant wrestling and takedowns, Sherk regularly demonstrates a significant lack of offense to back up that ability. For example, in his latest fight, thanks to dominant takedowns and ground control, Sherk had numerous opportunities in which Franca was "turtled," exposing his back and just trying to cover his head. Sherk was unable to capitalize on this dominant position in any way, and he just slid around his downed opponent in wrestling positions, peppering him with occasional and ineffective strikes.
B.J. Penn is 29 years old and holds a 12-4-1 MMA record, 8-3-1 in the UFC. He is considered one of the most talented Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioners in the world, earning his black belt under world-renowned master Andre Pederneiras. Penn is exceedingly well rounded as a true mixed martial artist, with great striking, takedowns, takedown defense and world-class jiu jitsu.
Penn's losses have all been close: a majority decision to Jens Pulver at UFC 35, a close unanimous decision to Lyoto Machida in K1 HERO'S (Machida outweighed him by 20 pounds), a split decision loss to St. Pierre at UFC 58, and a loss due to an injury against Matt Hughes at UFC 63.
Penn has never been stopped in a fight except in his loss to Hughes at UFC 58, where he was affected by a separated rib from the end of the second round of the fight.
To take it a step further, he's actually never even been dropped in a fight. I regularly re-watch each fighter's entire career in preparation for these write-ups, and it's impressive to notice Penn's toughness when you're looking for it. Penn has taken direct shots to the face from top-tier fighters -- such as Machida (a light heavyweight, whose punching power was demonstrated with a knockout victory over Rich Franklin), St. Pierre and Takanori Gomi -- and he's never been knocked down and has never even been seriously stunned.
Penn is generally characterized as lacking in cardio or in focus (Sherk even recently accused him of lacking in heart). I believe this is a case of a classic MMA betting cliché: overrating recent performances and ignoring the full set of data available to us. Penn may have had focus problems in the past, arguably allowing his talent to carry him for fights and not training seriously. However, reports of Penn's weak cardio are in my opinion greatly exaggerated.
Penn has demonstrated serious cardio problems in exactly one fight: against St. Pierre, in his first fight back in the UFC after more than three years away fighting in smaller shows. So while Penn's conditioning in that fight may not have been world-class, the extenuating circumstances of a return fight after a serious absence -- not to mention the world-class opponent -- are factors that most pundits seem to conveniently overlook. Another fact overlooked is that St. Pierre didn't exactly demonstrate the world's greatest gas tank in that fight either.
More importantly, even if you think you can make the case that Penn has struggled with cardio in some fights, Penn has never demonstrated cardio problems at lightweight. He's been in two previous five-round title fights at lightweight, and he actually demonstrated excellent cardio in the most recent -- a five-round war with Caol Uno at UFC 41 that culminated in a disappointing unanimous draw. This was five years ago, so one can effectively argue relevance to the fight at hand. Still, I think the conclusion can be made that Penn's "cardio struggles" are, if nothing else, over-emphasized, at least when he's fighting as a lightweight.
While Sherk is an impressive fighter with one of MMA's best records, I think he finally meets his match at 155 pounds here. Sherk hasn't demonstrated the ability to finish a fighter of Penn's caliber, outside of the unlikely event of a fight ending cut or injury. Sherk's lone finish by a cut was in September 2002.
Simply put, if Sherk couldn't finish Hermes Franca (or Kenny Florian or Nick Diaz), he's got little to no chance of finishing Penn, who is pretty much better than Franca in every aspect of the fight game.
Sherk's best, and in my opinion only realistic, path to victory is to take this fight to a decision and outwork Penn with takedowns and ground control -- most likely surviving the first two rounds of onslaught from Penn and winning the last three. To do so, he's got to counter Penn's excellent jiu jitsu, Penn's elite takedown defense, and Penn's vastly superior striking.
It's certainly possible that Sherk drags this fight to a decision -- but I just don't think it's probable. I assigned Sherk a 30 percent chance of winning the fight in my previous breakdown, and I still feel that's accurate. Penn wins this fight 70 percent of the time in my book, which makes a bet on Penn the right play, up to -233.
This line opened with Penn at -200, which made him a clear play. Since my previous article recommending the play on Penn, money has moved in on him steadily, with the line adjusting to its current position of Penn -250. With the line shift, I wouldn't recommend a serious play on Penn at this price. Most of the value has been bet out of the line already. It's worth only the smallest of bets at the current line for those junkies who want to have action on the main event. On the flip side, I can't recommend a play on Sherk unless his line climbs closer to +230.
While I predict Penn as the victor, the majority of the time, it's hard to predict how Penn finishes this fight simply because he's so well rounded. Penn could certainly secure a TKO victory on the feet. He could also submit Sherk; while Sherk's body type doesn't make submissions on arms or legs easy, it's still very possible to submit him with a triangle choke or a gogoplata (and Penn's gogoplata is excellent). Penn could also end up putting Sherk on his back, from a sweep or from his own takedown (or putting Sherk on his back with strikes from the feet). Either way, I predict Penn finishes this fight somehow in the second round.
Lyoto Machida (-200) vs. Tito Ortiz (+160)
Brazilian Lyoto Machida holds an 12-0 record, 4-0 in the UFC. Machida has a strong background in karate courtesy his father, Japanese Brazilian Shotokan karate master Yoshizo Machida. Lyoto has also trained in Brazilian jiu jitsu, where he holds a <STRIKE>purple</STRIKE> black belt under Alexi Cruz (update: Machida was recently promoted to black belt). After Machida's second fight, he came under the tutelage of Japanese icon Antonio Inoki. Machida is only 29 years old.
Among Machida's 11 victories are two fights against top-tier talent: a well-publicized knockout win of Rich Franklin back in 2003, and a fight with BJ Penn in March 2005, where Penn was fighting up two full weight classes and Lyoto won a close -- and to some, controversial -- decision. Machida's first three fights in the UFC were all unanimous decision victories over Sam Hoger at UFC 67, David Heath at UFC 70, and Kazuhiro Nakamura at UFC 76. Most recently, Machida defeated judo specialist Rameau Sokoudjou at UFC 79. Machida also holds a victory over UFC fighter Stephan Bonnar from a smaller organization back in 2003.
Tito Ortiz is one of the UFC's biggest names and holds a 15-5-1 MMA record, with all but one fight (one of the wins) occurring in the UFC. He's winless in his past two, a third round TKO loss to Chuck Liddell at UFC 66 and a draw with Rashad Evans at UFC 73.
Ortiz has a decent grappling pedigree. He previously placed third at the prestigious Abu Dhabi Combat Club absolutes. He once submitted Mike VanArsdale in no-gi grappling. Ortiz has an excellent grappling top game, rarely getting swept or submitted once he's in top position. Ortiz used to have elite shots and takedowns, but he's been hampered in the last several years by back and knee injuries.
Ortiz has a laundry list of factors that make him a troublesome bet: a prolific injury history, he's fighting for the first time back after almost a year layoff, and he holds no serious wins in the last seven years.
Outside of his ability to take you down, hold you down, and elbow you in the face repeatedly, Ortiz isn't so well rounded. Ortiz has subpar striking with a shell defense, utilizes no jiu jitsu to speak of; he doesn't pass guard, he doesn't sweep, he doesn't look for submissions, and he rarely has demonstrated a need to defend submissions because he rarely opens himself up to getting swept or submitted. Ortiz's unusual body type (he's all torso) combined with his strength and wrestling skills mean that he's highly effective from inside the guard, so he rarely tries to pass guard or change his position. If someone doesn't try to pass guard and doesn't try to do anything but hold you down and throw elbows, it's much harder to sweep him, let alone submit him.
Ortiz's top game, in my opinion, can almost be summarized down to "elbows from inside the guard." It's highly effective for him; Ortiz has essentially made a career of depending solely on his wrestling and this unique form of ground-and-pound.
In my opinion, he is the epitome of one-dimensional fighters from the 1990s era of MMA. I know this won't make me popular with Ortiz's legion of fans, but I believe it's true. And in my opinion, regardless of Ortiz's strengths at that one dimension, he's not going to be effective against a well-rounded modern mixed martial artist of the skill level of Machida.
Most telling for me is the list of Ortiz's recent performances. Ortiz's latest wins against top competition were defeating Wanderlei Silva by a five-round decision back at UFC 25 in April 2000, and then Vladimir Matyushenko at UFC 33 in September 2001.
Fast forwarding through Ortiz's fights since that win over Matyushenko, we have a win over an aging Ken Shamrock, losses to Randy Couture and Chuck Liddell, a unanimous decision win over a young and undersized Patrick Cote (who now fights at 185), a split-decision win over Vitor Belfort (part of a string of five-out-of-seven losses by Belfort), a controversial split -decision victory over a very green Forrest Griffin, two more wins over Shamrock, a loss to Liddell, and the controversial draw with Evans. Almost seven years without a legitimate win against top competition is a very telling statistic.
Machida has much better skills off his back than most fans have seen. Just because most fans haven't seen him on his back since fighting Penn in early 2005 -- and that's against arguably the best MMA BJJ practitioner in the world -- doesn't mean he doesn't have those skills. Machida holds a purple belt in BJJ from a world-class master and a black belt in Sumo. Machida also brings a more effective takedown defense than I think most realize; Ortiz is going to have a harder time taking him down than many expect because Machida will be landing solid strikes, maintaining range and circling. Great footwork and punishing, accurate strikes are great ways to defend takedowns.
Machida has learned that he needs to finish fights to be a marketable property and has significantly upped the agressiveness in his last two fights. I think you see more of that here. He's still going to be the same stylistic counterfighter, but I think his camp has instilled an appropriate amount of aggression to go with his style now. He's been fine-tuned.
I think Machida is easily one of the most dangerous MMA fighters at 205. In terms of talent and ability, he's a top three at 205 for me, and he's on the top 10 pound-for-pound. The current-day Ortiz isn't anywhere near either of those lists, in my opinion.
I respect Ortiz, as a businessman and as a fighter. He's a huge reason why the UFC is where it is today. But I don't think that he's got what it takes to compete at the top levels of this division any more, and I think Machida clearly does.
I think we're going to see a passing of the torch in this fight with Machida overmatching Ortiz in pretty much every way. Ortiz certainly has a chance to fight his way to a victory through takedowns and laying on top of Machida. But to do so, he's got to avoid getting blasted on the feet by one of the most accurate strikers in MMA, he's got to close ground on one of the fighters with the best movement and ring awareness, and once inside he's got to take down, hold down and deal with submission and sweeps from a legit BJJ purple belt, who is most certainly the most dangerous BJJ practitioner Ortiz has faced in the last six years.
I simply don't think Ortiz has the sort of explosive shot anymore at this point in his career (and with his history of lower-body and back injuries, especially) in which he can just pull a Sherk and do nothing but put Machida on his back at the start of each round by shooting from way outside and driving through. He might be able to do so in the first round. But I don't really see Ortiz having the energy to do so here repeatedly. He didn't against Evans almost a year ago, and I don't expect Ortiz to look any better here.
I don't think Ortiz has a remote chance of threatening Machida with striking. I think he's going to come out, try to push inside for a shot, Machida's going to show good takedown defense, and the first round is going to be Ortiz sinking for a single/double with Machida against the fence defending via underhooks. The ref separates, rinse and repeat. Second round, Ortiz is slower, Machida picks him apart with strikes, and forces the stoppage or sinks in another submission setup by strikes.
I also think Ortiz's shell game hurts him here with Machida's quick and accurate strikes. It's one thing to turtle against a typical MMA striker with looping, wild punches. Going into a shell against Machida is pretty much just like giving up, similar to going into a shell against Machida's former training partner Anderson Silva. I think the first time Ortiz tries his trademark shell defense and eats a couple shots he's not expecting, he's going to be done for.
Those backing Ortiz will likely counter that Machida's ground game and takedown defense are poor, or unknown. However, just because you haven't seen Machida's takedown defense or ground game in a fight doesn't mean it doesn't exist. He's been training BJJ and Brazilian Sumo since he was a pre-teen. He has training partners who are world-class grapplers and elite wrestlers. And he has a legit purple belt in BJJ from a legit source with whom he's been working with for nine years. Gym work isn't the same as fight experience, for sure, but to say that Machida has poor or no takedown defense or ground skills is just ludicrous.
Ortiz fans also will no doubt point out that when "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" gets on top of his opponents, he rarely gets swept or submitted. My counter is that Ortiz hasn't faced anyone in six years who had the opportunity or ability to sweep him. Not one person. He certainly wasn't going to get swept by Shamrock. He wasn't ever on top of Evans in a guard in which he could get swept. The takedowns he got against Evans were up against the fence, where Evans was stacked up, and at least twice he was able to stand up out of them.
I think if we could magically put Ortiz of six years ago up against Machida of today, this would be a very different fight. Ortiz six years ago, at the top of his game, might have been able to "lay and pray" against almost anyone in the world. But in the last six years, MMA has evolved from the bottom to be able to effectively tie up one-dimensional lay-and-pray fighters to force a restart. You've also seen an increase in techniques allowing for effective use of the fence as a way to escape lay and pray.
The general public is finally starting to catch on that Machida is generally a clone of Silva except with karate as his striking fundamental instead of muay thai. This doesn't give Machida the devastating thai clinch, but it does give him even more elusive and accurate striking compared to his former teammate.
At -200, Machida is being assigned a 66 percent chance of winning. I believe his chances are actually significantly higher, making him a good bet at the current odds. I wouldn't be surprised to see money come in on Ortiz closer to the fight (he is inarguably one of the most popular and famous mixed martial artists in the world), so you might monitor the line as the time progresses and you might get an even better price on Machida.
Machida by TKO in the second round.
Wanderlei Silva (-190) vs. Keith Jardine (+155)
Wanderlei Silva is 31 years old and holds a 31-8-1 MMA record. Silva is primarily a veteran of the defunct Japanese MMA organization PRIDE, where he held the organization's middleweight (205 pound) title for more than five years. There, Silva also won the PRIDE 2003 Middleweight Grand Prix tournament.
Newer UFC fans might not realize that Silva has been in the UFC octagon four times previously, not just once. The Brazilian actually holds a 1-3 record in the cage. Silva lost to Tito Ortiz at UFC 25 and Vitor Belfort at UFC Ultimate Brazil (which was between UFC 17 and UFC 18) back in 1998. Most recently, Silva lost to Chuck Liddell at UFC 79. Silva's lone UFC win was against Tony Petarra at UFC 20.
Silva holds the nickname "The Axe Murderer," earned for his extremely aggressive fighting style. He also holds the Brazilian nickname "Cachorro Louco," which translates to "Mad Dog".
Silva is coming off of three consecutive losses. First, there was a devastating KO loss to heavyweight Mirko Cro Cop in the PRIDE open-weight grand prix tournament (PRIDE Final Conflict Absolute) in September 2006, then another knockout loss to Dan Henderson at PRIDE 33 on U.S. soil in February 2007. Silva then he took a break from fighting for most of 2007 before returning to prepare for his fight against Liddell. Silva lost a unanimous decision to him at UFC 79.
Keith Jardine is 13-3-1 and is 5-2 in the UFC with wins over Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin and Wilson Gouveia. Jardine lost a controversial decision to Stephan Bonnar at UFC Fight Night 4, and then a devastating KO loss to Houston Alexander at UFC 71.
Personally, I'd put an asterisk next to Jardine's record, as he should be 6-1 but was blatantly robbed of a decision against Bonnar.
Jardine has an unorthodox striking style, permeated by punishing leg kicks, hooks and uppercuts. He trains with Greg Jackson's camp alongside Nate Marquardt and St. Pierre (when he's in the U.S.). Jardine holds a black belt in Jackson's art of Gaidojutsu.
Jardine is a popular underdog pick here, and it's easy to understand why. Silva has lost his Past three, and the transitive property of the classic cliché of "MMA Math" says that Jardine is greater than Liddell and Liddell is greater than Silva, so Jardine must be greater than Silva, right? As always, the right answer is "it depends."
While I don’t think Silva is as "finished" as his past three fights might suggest, I still think he's going to have trouble with Jardine. Just as Jardine was able to frustrate Liddell with kicks and good footwork, he should be able to do the same against Silva. Silva's best bet for winning this fight would be to utilize his muay thai skills and close the distance on Jardine. We all saw what the explosive Alexander was able to do to Jardine from inside with his own muay thai, and Silva can do the same -- but only if he can close the distance.
Silva could also win by utilizing his jiu jitsu, something we've rarely seen from the Brazilian in his MMA career. Silva holds a BJJ black belt, but rarely does he attempt to take his opponents down or submit them, choosing instead to put on a striking show for the fans.
Jardine is being given approximately a 40 percent chance of winning this fight, and I think that's about accurate. I think Silva should be the favorite here, but Jardine is certainly a "live underdog" with a good chance to upset. I think it's worth a play on Jardine at the current odds, but only a small one.
Most of the money has come in on Jardine, with the odds steadily dropping as a result. If you're looking to bet on Jardine, you're best to get in as soon as possible. I expect Jardine's odds are only going to only get worse as the fight approaches.
Thiago Silva (-850) vs. Antonio Mendes (+550)
Thiago Silva is 12-0 with notable wins over Houston Alexander, Tomasz Drwal and James Irvin. Silva currently trains with American Top Team in Florida and formerly trained with Chute Boxe . He's well grounded in brazilian jiu jitsu (holding a black belt) and muay thai.
His perfect 12-0 record is comprised of 10 wins by knockout or TKO. Silva was the Fury Fighting Championships Grand Prix Champion for the 93-kilogram-(205-pound)-and-lighter division. His most impressive victory prior to moving to the UFC is a KO win over Tatsuya Mizuno (via soccer kick) in a February 2007 Pancrase event.
Silva is an obvious hard hitter who looks very comfortable on his feet. He has a solid sprawl, good footwork and exceptional balance while delivering kicks. Silva is also very well versed on the ground, holding wins in several BJJ tournaments.
Silva made his UFC debut on the undercard of UFC 71, where he defeated Irvin by TKO. Silva secured a takedown about a minute into the fight. Irvin tried to fight being taken down, and he suffered a severe knee injury in the process.
Next, Silva defeated Drwal on the undercard of UFC 75. Silva and Drwal went toe to toe at the start, with Drwal getting the upper hand early and knocking Silva to the canvas. However, Drwal couldn't put the Brazilian away, and the fight made it in to the second round. There, both fighters gassed hard while swinging for the fences, giving and receiving punishment. Silva ultimately caught Drwal and put him down late in the second to continue his unbeaten string.
Most recently, Silva outclassed Alexander at UFC 78, sweeping and gaining mount after being slammed by Alexander early, and raining down punches from the mount until the fight was stopped.
Brazilian Antonio Mendes holds a 14-2 MMA record and is making his octagon debut. Odds are you haven't heard of anyone he's beaten, but hardcore MMA fans may have seen his last fight at M-1's July 2007 event "Russia vs. Europe," where he defeated Kiril Sidelnikov by TKO in the second round. Mendes' most recent loss came via submission against vaunted Alexandre "Vaca" Moreno back in 2004. Since then, Mendes has won 11 straight. He fought once more in 2004, once in 2005, then took two years off. He returned in 2007 and fought nine times in 2007 (including three times in one night, via a Polish MMA tournament). This is his first fight in 2008.
At -850, Silva is being given a 90 percent chance to win this fight. It's almost ludicrious to lay that kind of chalk against an opponent as skilled as Mendes; while Mendes may not be a top name, he's still a legitimate opponent. Still, I can't recommend a play on Mendes either, as he hasn't demonstrated anything to me that indicates he has a serious chance of pulling the upset. Silva by TKO in the first round.
Wilson Gouveia (-120) vs. Goran Reljic (-110)
Wilson Gouveia holds a 10-4 MMA record, 4-1 in the UFC. He lost a unanimous decision to Jardine in his UFC debut at The Ultimate Fighter 3 Finale but since has rattled off four straight wins, three by way of submission and most recently a KO victory over Jason Lambert at UFC 80. Gouveia trains with American Top Team.
Croatian Goran Reljic holds a 7-0 MMA record and is making his UFC debut. He's a BJJ specialist, training at Gracie Barra UK. Five of his victories have come by way of submission, with one TKO and one unanimous decision.
I think this line is appropriately set; I agree that it's close enough to a coinflip to recommend staying away. I predict Gouveia by decision, but I wouldn't consider betting either side.
Rich Clementi (-260) vs. Terry Etim (+200)
Rich Clementi holds a 32-12-1 MMA record and is 5-1 in the UFC. Almost half of Clementi's wins have come by submission, with an additional 10 by knockout and only seven decisions (23 percent). "No Love" has won his past five fights, including a submission victory over Melvin "Stanchion" Guillard at UFC 79 and a split decision over Sam "Hands of Stone" Stout at UFC 83.
That's right: Clementi last fought on April 19 at UFC 83. And not just a quick fight -- he was in a three round war with Stout, in a surprisingly great fight hidden on the undercard. Clementi steps in on short notice, filling in for an injured Rob Emerson, who was already filling in for Jeremy Stephens, who was forced to withdraw from the fight to handle a minor legal issue (Stephens has instead been scheduled to fight Spencer Fisher in June at The Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale).
England's Terry Etim holds a 10-1 MMA record, and is 1-1 in the UFC. He defeated Matt Grice by submission in his UFC debut at UFC 70 in the UK, but most recently lost a unanimous decision to Gleison Tibau at UFC 75. Etim is a balanced fighter with a background in Muay Thai and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu with nine of wins by submission and one by TKO.
At 6-foot-1 and only 155 pounds, Etim has a Corey Hill-like physique. This gives him a good reach advantage, and it can be advantageous using those lanky limbs when working for submissions (a la Anderson Silva) but also can work to his disadvantage as it gives an opponent that much more to attack and more leverage to finish.
At -260, Clementi is being given a 72 percent chance to win. While Clementi has looked very strong on his recent winning streak, I think these odds are a bit high given that he's coming off a three-round war only a month ago. I like Etim as the underdog play to potentially catch Clementi in a triangle in the very first round. Still, you've got to remember that Etim is a heavy underdog for a reason, and you expect to lose this bet much more often than you win.
Rameau Sokoudjou (-265) vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura (+205)
Rameau Sokoudjou holds a 4-2 MMA record and is 0-1 in the UFC after being submitted by Machida at UFC 79. Sokoudjou trains with Team Quest South with Dan Henderson and Matt Lindland. He actually helped Henderson prepare for a fight back in 2004 as a training partner. Sokoudjou is a skilled judoka with obvious explosive power in his hands.
The "African Assassin" became one of MMA's hottest young names after his shocking upset of Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in only 23 seconds at PRIDE 33. That was actually the single largest upset, from a gambling perspective, in MMA history. Sokoudjou then followed his upset of Nogueira with another first-round knockout, this time of Ricardo Arona, at PRIDE 34.
Kazuhiro Nakamura holds an 11-7 MMA record and is looking to rebound after dropping his UFC debut against Lyoto Machida at UFC 76. Nakamura's skills are better than his record indicate: all seven of his losses have come against top or even elite-level competition: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira twice, Dan Henderson, Wanderlei Silva, Josh Barnett (a heavyweight), and unanimous decision losses in his last two fights to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and Lyoto Machida.
Nakamura is a judo specialist, training at the famed Yoshida Dojo, under Hidehiko Yoshida. Notable wins have come over Murilo Bustamante, Kevin Randleman, Igor Vovchanchyn and Yuki Kondo.
It will be interesting to see if these two skilled judokas will turn this into a judo match or if their judo will neutralize each other and the fight will stay standing. Nakamura is tough but no match for Sokoudjou standing. Nakamura's only real chance for the upset is to beat Sokoudjou on the ground, and I don't think that it will turn in to enough of a judo-focused fight for it to get there. Sokoudjou by TKO in the second round.
Ivan Salaverry (-170) vs. Rousimar Palhares (+140)
Ivan Salaverry holds a 12-6 MMA record and is 37 years old. He has lost two of his past three, dropping a unanimous decision to Nate Marquardt at the first UFC Fight Night back in 2005, and a KO loss to Terry Martin at UFC 71. Salaverry fought once in 2006 (outside the UFC) and once in 2007, and he returns for the first time since the loss to Martin almost exactly a year ago.
Rousimar "Toquinho" Palhares is a Brazilian Top Team fighter holding a BJJ black belt, and he is making his UFC debut with a 7-1 MMA record. Palhares is on a five-fight win streak and most recently submitted Chute Boxe's Daniel Acacio and Fabio Negao in the same night in the Fury Fight 5 Grand Prix in Brazil's Fury FC series.
Palhares is being given a 42 percent chance to win, and I think this line is significantly off. Salaverry is being overrated because he's a known-name fighter, but he's unfortunately well past his prime at 37, and fighting once a year hasn't done him any favors either. I've seen several of Palhares' fights, and I think the younger, stronger Palhares should actually be a slight favorite here. Palhares has very good takedowns and slams, and solid standup that includes effective kicks and heavy hands. His teammates report he has "bizarre" strength. Palhares is very effective at leglocks and kneebars and great at transitions into them.
Look for Palhares to come out, set up a quick takedown (possibly a big slam via the clinch), loosen up his opponent with some punishing strikes, and then transition into a slick submission. Palhares by submission in the first round.
Jason Tan (+250) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (-325)
England's Jason Tan holds a 5-2 MMA record and is 0-1 in the UFC after getting KO'd by Marcus Davis at UFC 72. Dong Hyun Kim is a Korean fighter with a 9-1-1 MMA record, mostly earned in Japan's DEEP organization. At -325, Kim is being assigned approximately a 75 percent chance to win, and I think that's appropriate. We haven't seen anything from Tan to think that he's got better than a 25 percent chance of pulling off this upset. With so many better bets available to us, I'd recommend staying away from this fight. Dong Hyun Kim by unanimous decision.
Shane Carwin (-180) vs. Christian Wellisch (+150)
Denver's Shane Carwin makes his octagon debut with a perfect 8-0 MMA record, which includes a win in Ring of Fire over onetime UFC fighter Sherman "the tank" Pendergarst. Carwin is a collegiate Division II wrestling national champion and a two-time All American in football. He's big and strong, with good wrestling and takedowns but doesn't appear to have matured in the standup game. Most of his wins have come by way of brutal ground and pound.
AKA's Christian Wellisch holds an 8-3 MMA record and is 2-1 in the UFC with a loss to Cheick Kong at UFC 62, then wins over Anthony Perosh at UFC 66 and Scott Junk at UFC 76.
Carwin will most likely come out and put Wellisch on his back quickly and force a stoppage with ground and pound. I'm not sure that Wellisch can defend against Carwin's takedowns or his strength, and I'm not sure he can slap on a submission in the face of Carwin's strength and wrestling ability, especially when he'll have Carwin trying to pound in his face. I think this line is appropriately set given the fact that Carwin is still very one dimensional and will be making his octagon debut. Carwin by TKO in the first round.
Jon Koppenhaver (+140) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (-170)
Former "The Ultimate Fighter" cast member Jon Koppenhaver returns to the UFC octagon holding a 5-1 MMA record and a 1-0 record in the UFC after defeating Jared Rollins at The Ultimate Fighter 6 Finale. "War Machine" has solid wrestling skills and decent standup, and he holds a purple belt in jiu-jitsu under Baret Yoshida.
Shooto fighter Yoshiyuki Yoshida makes his UFC debut with a 9-2 MMA record, mostly earned in Japan's Shooto and GCM (Greatest Common Multiple) organizations. Yoshida won GCM's first welterweight tournament in 2007.
Yoshida won his MMA debut, then lost the next two, and has since rattled off eight straight wins. Yoshida's most notable wins include a TKO victory over Luis Sapo in mid-2006 plus wins over two-time Pancrase interium champion Katsuya Inoue and former Shooto champion Akira Kikuchi.
Unlike other Japanese fighters, Yoshida is already comfortable in the cage and throwing elbows (GCM occurs in a small cage, and allows elbows to the head), as he's demonstrated in multiple fights, so he shouldn't be at the usual disadvantage that we see with many Japanese fighters coming over. However, Yoshida fought at 167 pounds in Shooto (76 kg), so it's likely that he'll be slightly undersized for this fight, especially with the typical Japanese convention of not cutting significant weight for fights.
Koppenhaver is young and aggressive, but I think he'll have his hands full with Yoshida. I hoped this line would have been closer, with American fans and linesmakers hopefully underrating Yoshida's experience and skills. However, the line is more accurate than I expected and not worth a significant play given the better bets elsewhere. Yoshida by TKO in the second round.
My public record plays:
- BJ Penn -210 : 2.1 units to win 1 unit
(1 units to win .4 units for those who didn't take my earlier advice to bet Penn)
- Lyoto Machida -200 : 6 units to win 3 units
- Keith Jardine +155 : .2 units to win .31 units
- Rousimar Palhares +140 : 2 units to win 2.8 units
(if you're risk adverse, adjust to a one unit play)
- Terry Etim +200 : .1 units to win .2 units
