Performify’s Picks for UFC 79
Posted by Performify on December 26, 2007 at 1:19 am ET
Performify back again with picks and predictions for this weekend’s UFC 79 event.
I’m still riding a bit of a “hot streak” across the last several events, despite a so-so performance at UFC 78. I’m 18-8 for +11.15 units for the last four events on which I’ve released predictions (UFC 78, 77, 76, and 75).
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On to the picks. As always, all lines are current widely available market lines at the time of this write-up. And as usual, this write-up is a long one, so don’t forget to click through to “
Read More” to get the rest of the predictions.
Chuck Liddell (-105) vs. Wanderlei Silva (-125)
Chuck Liddell is 38 years old and owns a 20-5 MMA record, almost all of it earned in the UFC octagon where he is 15-4. Liddell has been actively fighting in the UFC since UFC 17 all the way back in May of 1998.
Liddell has an extensive background in kickboxing and collegiate wrestling and holds a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He is primarily a standup fighter and a counter-puncher, depending on his elite takedown defense to keep things standing and his unorthodox striking style to stop his opponents.
Liddell is coming off two consecutive losses: a one-punch knockout at the hands of current UFC champion Quinton “Rampage” Jackson at UFC 71 in May 2007, and a split-decision loss to Keith Jardine in late September at UFC 76.
Wanderlei Silva is 31 years old and holds a 31-7-1 MMA record. Silva is primarily a veteran of the defunct Japanese MMA organization PRIDE, where he held the organization’s middleweight (205 pound) title for over five years. There, Silva also won the PRIDE 2003 Middleweight Grand Prix tournament.
Newer UFC fans might not realize that this isn’t Silva’s first trip to the UFC octagon. The Brazilian has actually fought in the UFC three times before, and holds a 1-2 record in the cage. Silva lost to Tito Ortiz at UFC 25 and Vitor Belfort at UFC Ultimate Brazil (which was between UFC 17 and UFC 18) back in 1998.
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Silva has the nickname “The Axe Murderer”, which he earned for his extremely aggressive fighting style, but also holds the Brazilian nickname “Cachorro Louco”, which translates to “Mad Dog”.
Like Liddell, Silva is coming off of two consecutive losses: a devastating KO loss to the significantly larger Mirko Cro Cop in the PRIDE open-weight grand prix tournament (PRIDE Final Conflict Absolute) in September 2006, and another knockout loss to Dan Henderson at PRIDE 33 on US soil in February 2007. Silva then took much of 2007 off of fighting before returning to prepare for this fight against Liddell.
This highly anticipated fight comes a little later than most of us MMA fans would want. Humorously, UFC president Dana White chided former PRIDE officials for “allowing” Silva to lose to Dan Henderson at PRIDE 33 thus supposedly “ruining” the potential match up between Silva and Liddell. However, more so than Silva’s losses, Liddell’s two consecutive losses — especially the loss to Keith Jardine who isn’t exactly regarded as one of the top fighters in the weight class — really reduce a lot of the luster on this fight. Yes, as a hardcore MMA fan, I’m still obviously interested in this fight, but it no longer holds nearly the appeal that it once did.
Liddell reportedly has been following his standard training regimen for this fight, while Silva has reportedly been holding his most intense training camp yet. Silva is likely training so hard simply because he has much to loose with this fight — at only 31 years old, he still has several years and potentially several big fights in front of him. For example, if he can defeat Liddell and rack up another victory or two, who wouldn’t want to see a rematch against Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, to see if the “new and improved” Jackson can erase the specter of those losses? Silva has been training with a variety of partners, but primarily with former UFC heavyweight champion Randy Couture — the same Couture who fought Liddell three times and was victorious once.
Silva has everything to gain by defeating Liddell here, that much is obvious. Liddell, on the other hand — at least in my opinion — has everything going against him. While there’s no question “The Iceman” helped to put MMA and the UFC on the map, he’s primarily made a career of knocking out grapplers and mid-level strikers. Silva is one of the first elite-level strikers that Liddell has faced in a long, long time. The loss to Jardine is already a significant black mark on his recent record, and at 38 — and with his apparent party-hard lifestyle — time is not on his side. Now the 205-pound division is stacked with talent, and Liddell seems to have everything going against him: time, lifestyle, conditioning, quality of opposition, pretty much everything.
I look for both fighters to come out a little cautious, which might surprise some people. Silva is known as highly aggressive, but coming off two big knockout losses and knowing the magnitude of this fight — and with the expert gameplanning advice of Randy Couture in his corner — I expect Silva to have a rock-solid gameplan that includes an appropriate level of caution.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Silva look to engage Liddell with his muay thai skills, especially from inside the clinch. Couture used his Greco-Roman wrestling skills to get inside on Liddell when he beat him, and if Silva can avoid getting blasted on the way in, he can neutralize a lot of Liddell’s ability to strike from outside.
I expect the first round will be a bit cautious early, and then some fireworks late. The second round I expect to be almost all Silva, with Silva securing victory by referee stoppage early in the third round.
Lyoto Machida (-130) vs. Rameau Sokoudjou (+110 via Bookmaker)
Lyoto Machida presents a terrible style matchup for just about everyone he faces — he’s a focused and cautious and disciplined counter-striker. Machida is a Brazilian and at 28 has a bright future in MMA with an 11-0 record, 3-0 in the UFC. Machida has a strong background in karate courtesy his father, Japanese Brazilian Shotokan karate master Yoshizo Machida. Lyoto has also trained in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, where he holds a purple belt under Alexi Cruz. After Machida’s second fight, he came under the tutelage of Japanese icon Antonio Inoki.
Among Machida’s eleven victories are two fights against top-tier talent: a well-publicized knockout win of Rich Franklin back in 2003, and a fight with BJ Penn in March 2005, where Penn was fighting up two full weight classes and Lyoto won a close — and to some, controversial — decision. Machida’s three fights in the UFC are all unanimous decision victories, over Sam Hoger at UFC 67, David Heath at UFC 70, and Kazuhiro Nakamura at UFC 76. Machida also has a victory over UFC fighter Stephan Bonnar from a smaller organization back in 2003.
Rameau Sokoudjou is 4-1 in MMA and is making his UFC debut. The “African Assassin” became one of MMA’s hottest young names after a shocking upset of Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in only 23 seconds at PRIDE 33. That was actually the single largest upset, from a gambling perspective, in MMA history. Sokoudjou then followed his upset of Nogueira with another first round knockout, this time of Ricardo Arona at PRIDE 34.
Sokoudjou trains with Team Quest South with Dan Henderson and Matt Lindland. He actually helped Henderson prepare for a fight back in 2004 as a training partner.
Sokoudjou has been on the bench, so to speak, without a professional fight since PRIDE 34, in April 2007. He’s mentioned in several interviews (including the story we previously featured from Dave Doyle of Yahoo! Sports (see:
Sokoudjou’s Secret Journey to MMA Stardom) that he’s been continuously training since that event, however as with many of the former PRIDE fighters, “ring rust” has to be a concern.
One of the constants in MMA wagering is that the public tends to dramatically over-estimate the results of your last fight. Yes, Sokoudjou has won his last two major-stage fights with two dramatic knockout victories. However, don’t overestimate the judoka’s abilities based on the small bit you’ve seen of him. Balance what you know and what you’ve actually seen. Machida on the other side is a known commodity — he’s an excellent fighter, truly top-tier, with wins over major competition and a style that creates problems for just about anyone.
I’ve been making money on Machida for a long time, as the linesmakers (and the betting public) tend to underrate the fighter. He’s not flashy. He doesn’t finish fights. And as such, he hasn’t garnered nearly the publicity he deserves. But he wins fights. He’s got fantastic defensive skills and great technique. I expect that Machida’s highly technical skills here will be too much for Sokoudjou’s aggressiveness. Machida by unanimous decision.
Melvin Guillard (-240 via Bookmaker) vs. Rich Clementi (+200)
Melvin Guillard is primarily an explosive, athletic striker with a background in kickboxing, but he also holds a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Ricco Rodriguez. Guillard is 20-6-2 in MMA and 3-1 in the UFC, winning his last two fights with knockouts against Gabe Ruediger at UFC 63 (Hughes vs. Penn) and Rick Davis at UFC 60 (Hughes vs. Gracie) before dropping his last fight against Joe “Daddy” Stevenson in under thirty seconds.
Guillard may be a highly emotional fighter, but despite all that drama he’s a strong, young fighter at 24 years of age, and despite the setback against Stevenson I think Guillard has potential to be a top-ten fighter at 155 if he continues to improve. Guillard trains with Tito Ortiz under the mantle of Team Punishment, which means he’s had access to Tito’s longtime striking instructor Saul Soliz, but Guillard has also trained in the past with Pete Spratt, Ricco Rodriguez, and Diego Sanchez.
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Rich “No Love Clementi holds an extensive 29-12-1 MMA record and is 2-3 in the UFC. Clementi was a participant on The Ultimate Fighter season four, “The Comeback.” He has been fighting professionally since 1999. Clementi lost his first two fights in the UFC — submission losses to Yves Edwards at UFC 41 and Din Thomas at the finale of The Ultimate Fighter 4. He then rebounded with an easy victory over Ross Pointon at UFC Fight Night 8. His massive one fight win streak was then was derailed by Roan Carneiro at UFC Fight Night 9. “No Love” then jumped outside the UFC recently to fight in the IFO. There — on the undercard of Travis Wiuff vs. Sean Salmon — Clementi secured a first round submission victory to return to winning ways. He then returned to the majors with a submission victory over Anthony Johnson at UFC 76.
Clementi at this point in his career has become a mid-level journeyman. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with that role, of course, but I don’t believe he’s capable of taking his game to the “next level,” so to speak. Guillard is marketable and dramatic and should rebound with an easy victory here against Clementi. Guillard by TKO in the second round.
Georges St. Pierre (-240) vs. Matt Hughes (+190)
Matt Hughes holds a ridiculous 41-5 MMA record, and is 15-3 in the UFC. This fight is the rubber match to settle the series between the fighters. Hughes won the first round, but then lost to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 65 in November 2006 by TKO at 1:25 of the second round. He has fought only once since then, due to the long layoff of Hughes’ position as a coach on The Ultimate Fighter reality show. That fight was a rather cautious unanimous decision victory over Chris Lytle at UFC 68 in March 2007.
Georges St. Pierre (14-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC). St. Pierre is 7-1 in fights going back through 2005. This is St. Pierre’s eleventh fight in the octagon, where he is undefeated except against fighters named Matt. St. Pierre’s first loss was to Matt Hughes at UFC 50 in October 2004, later avenged in dominant fashion at UFC 65. He then lost to Matt Serra in one of MMA’s largest upsets, at UFC 69 back in April. Most recently, “Rush” defeated Josh Koscheck by unanimous decision at UFC 74 on August 25 2007.
MMAjunkie.com sources near and inside Hughes’ training camp tell us that the former champion is training for this fight harder than has for any of his previous contests.
This fight presents an interesting conflict in styles and in storylines. Hughes represents the UFC’s old guard — the old-school wrestler, the ground-and-pound style. St. Pierre represents the young up-and-comers, those who have trained in all disciplines and are just as comfortable in jiu-jitsu or standing as they are in wrestling. St. Pierre is tremendously athletic and amazingly quick. Hughes is tremendously strong, perhaps the strongest welterweight fighter on the planet. Hughes is, without question, a future resident of the UFC hall of fame. And with this victory, I believe St. Pierre will take a serious step in that direction himself.
That’s right, I’m predicting the Canadian to take this fight. I know a lot of people like Hughes’ chances here, and as an almost 2:1 underdog the odds are certainly attractive. However, I believe the wrestling skills and phenomenal takedown defense that St. Pierre showcased against Josh Koscheck will simply be too much for Hughes to overcome here. Hughes’ standup cannot have improved sufficiently to take the fight to his Canadian opponent on the feet. I believe St. Pierre’s takedown defense and overall skills are just going to be too much for Hughes, and I think the Canadian will likely dominate this fight from start to finish.
Remember, since this fight is for the interium welterweight title, it is a five round fight. However, I don’t believe we’ll see the later rounds. St. Pierre by TKO in the third.
Eddie Sanchez (+125) vs. Soa Palelei (-155)
Eddie Sanchez holds a 7-1 MMA record and is 2-1 in the UFC. His UFC wins are against Mario Neto and Colin Robinson. However he’s probably most famous for his lone MMA loss, where he played the role of sacrificial lamb for Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic’s debut at UFC 67. Sanchez trains with North County Fight Club.
Soa Palelei is from Perth Australia and holds an 8-1 MMA record. He’s fought in Shooto, in PRIDE against Mu Bae Choi, and most recently in King of the Cage. Palelei, known as “The Hulk,” now trains out of Temecula California with Team Quest. He’s been training for ten years, and was active in the fight game from late 2002 until late 2004 when he stepped up to PRIDE and faced Choi. There, Palelei was defeated by rear naked choke, and the Australian then went almost three full years without a professional fight. In his return in the King of the Cage organization, he dropped his opponent Shaun Vanof in the first fourteen seconds. So in reality, Palelei hasn’t really had a major fight in over three years. However, he’s certainly training with a top-tier camp now, and that should help to make up for some of the ring rust. Palelei is well-rounded, with good skills standing as well as grappling skills: the Australian competed in the ADCC 2003 submission wrestling championships
I’m not really too impressed with this match-up, and I am incredibly surprised that they’ve chosen to make this a main card fight. I can only assume that they’re attempting to build up “The Hulk.” I am afraid that this will be a more mediocre fight than most expect, with Palelei’s ring rust playing a major factor. I don’t think this fight is worth betting — Palelei not having a serious fight in three years scares me and we haven’t seen enough from Sanchez to make me think he’s worth a bet as the underdog. I will predict Palelei by TKO late in the first round.
James Irvin (+150) vs. Luis Cane (-180)
James Irvin is 12-4 MMA in MMA but only 2-3 in the UFC. He is best known for his highlight-reel flying knee knockout of KO Terry Martin at UFC 54. Irvin returns to action for the first time since a May UFC 71 event. There, the 29-year-old fighter suffered a significant injury when his knee buckled during a loss to Thiago Silva. The Nevada State Athletic Commission originally issued Irvin a medical suspension that ran through November, pending clearance from an orthopedic doctor.
The defeat snapped a three-fight win streak for Irvin, which included an entertaining second-round TKO of Hector Ramirez at UFC 65. Irvin’s other two UFC losses were a KO loss to Mike Kyle at UFC 51 and a submission loss to Stephan Bonnar at UFC Fight Night 3.
Luis Cane fights out of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and has a background in grappling and muay thai. Cane owns a restaurant in Brazil, and still works there. He is 7-0 in MMA, with one no-contest. Cane is only 26 years old and has finished six of his seven victories by knockout or TKO.
I’m not interested in predicting this fight — I don’t know how healthy Irvin’s knee is, or how coming off that injury will have affected his training camp and conditioning. I also haven’t seen enough of Cane to recommend him at the current odds. I will predict Cane by TKO in the second round.
Nate Mohr (+305) vs. Manny Gamburyan (-375)
Nate Mohr is 8-4 in MMA and 1-1 in the UFC. Mohr made his UFC debut on the undercard of UFC Fight Night 9, losing by submission in the first round to Kurt Pelligrino. Mohr rebounded by winning a unanimous decision victory over Luke Caudillo at UFC Fight Night 10.
Manny Gamburyan was a contestant on Season 5 of The Ultimate Fighter. He holds a 5-2 MMA record and is officially 0-1 in the UFC after losing to Nate Diaz in the finale due to re-injuring his shoulder. “The Pitbull” has struggled throughout his MMA career with injuries to that same shoulder, dislocating it several times. Gamburyan’s notable MMA matches include a win over Jorge Santiago in King of the Cage, and a loss to Sean Sherk in the Reality Submission Fighting organization.
Gamburyan presents a tough style matchup for anyone — he’s short and stocky and strong, and expect to see a lot of the same technique that you saw propel Manny to the finals of the Ultimate Fighter Season 5: takedowns and ground control and the occasional strike. Manny by unanimous decision.
Jordan Radev (+280) vs. Dean Lister (-350)
Jordan Radev is a former Bulgarian Olympic wrestler who holds an 11-2 MMA record. He made his UFC debut on the undercard of UFC Fight Night 10 back in June, losing by KO to Andrew McFedries in just 33 seconds. Dean Lister is a world champion grappler and holds a 9-5 record in MMA and is 2-1 in the UFC. He returns to the octagon for the first time since his devastating loss to Nate Marquardt at UFC Fight Night 8 in January 2007. “The Boogeyman” is a grappling standout who won the 2003 Abu Dhabi Combat Club (ADCC) Absolute Division championship, a prestigious grappling tournament consisting only of top 16 grapplers in the world of each weight class. He’s had mixed success in Mixed Martial Arts, primarily because his standup skills aren’t anywhere near his world-class jiu-jitsu skills.
In this fight, it will be interesting to see if Radev’s wrestling skills and takedown defense will be sufficient to keep the fight standing against Lister, and if so, to see if Lister’s standup has improved in the almost-year since he’s last been seen in the Octagon. I believe Lister will show improved standup, at least sufficient standup to get the fight to the ground, where he will finish Radev with a submission — I predict somewhere in the second round.
Roan Carneiro (-155) vs. Tony Desouza (+125)
Roan “Jucao” Carneiro is 11-6 in MMA and 1-1 in the UFC. The Brazilian Top Team fighter’s lone UFC loss is to standout welterweight John Fitch. He made his UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 9 in April 2007, defeating Rich Clementi by unanimous decision. All of his MMA wins have come by submission or by decision.
Tony “Beautiful Beard” DeSouza is 10-3 in MMA and 2-2 in the UFC. DeSouza defeated Paul Rodriguez in his UFC debut back at UFC 32 in mid-2001, suffered a KO loss at UFC 33, and then left the organization, fighting a couple times a year in smaller organizations. He returned to the UFC in 2006, defeating Dustin Hazelett at Ortiz vs. Shamrock 3, and then losing to Thiago Alves two months later at UFC 66. DeSouza is a Brazilian jiu jitsu specialist, but like fellow grappler Dean Lister, he has struggled with his standup skills.
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Fights where both combatants are standout grapplers are usually decided by the edge the fighters have on the feet. Here, the edge goes to Carneiro. If the fight does turn in to a grappling match, DeSouza’s skills should have a chance to shine. However, I believe we’re going to see a case where a grappling standout is beaten by a more well-rounded mixed martial artist. Carneiro by TKO in the secound round.
Mark Bocek (-110) vs. Doug Evans (-120)
Mark Bocek is 4-1 in MMA and 0-1 in the UFC after losing to Frankie Edgar by TKO in the first round at UFC 73. Bocek is a 25-year-old Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist from Ontario, Canada. None of his four MMA wins have made it out of the first round.
Bocek studied under Rickson and Renzo Gracie before moving to the world famous jiu jitsu powerhouse Team Nova Uniao, where he received his BJJ black belt from Joao Roque. Bocek has won the BJJ World Cup, is a three-time Pan Am medalist, and has competed in the prestigious Abu Dhabi Combat Club (ADCC), an Arabian invitation-only grappling tournament that is widely regarded to be the best submission grappling tournament in the world. Bocek won the 2006 North American ADCC trials and most recently defeated UFC fighter Drew Fickett, 8-0, in the opening round of ADCC 2007 before losing in the quarterfinals.
Bocek trains with fellow Canadian Georges St. Pierre, and has trained at Greg Jackson’s camp in Albuquerque, N.M.
Doug Evans fights out of Anchorage Alaska and holds a 5-1 MMA record. Like Bocek, Evans is 0-1 in the UFC, losing in his UFC debut to Roger Huerta at the Ultimate Fighter 5 Finale.
As is typical of lightweight battles, this fight could actually steal the show (or at least the undercard). Both fighters showed promise in their debuts — Evans showcased some well-rounded skills, and it will be interesting to see if his wrestling and striking will be able to counter Bocek’s excellent grappling. I believe at the heart of it, this will be a classic battle of gameplans, between Evans looking to keep the fight standing and Bocek looking to take the fight to the ground. Whichever fighter can effectively implement their gameplan should walk away easily — I don’t think Bocek can hang with Evans on the feet, and I don’t think Evan’s wrestling will be sufficient to avoid Bocek’s submission skills. I will predict Bocek by submission in the first round, but I think this fight is too close to bet.
My public-record plays for this event:
- Wanderlei Silva (-125) : 2.5u to win 2u
- Lyoto Machida (-130): 1.3u to win 1u
- Melvin Guillard (-240): 1.2u to win .5u
- Georges St. Pierre (-240): 2.4u to win 1u
- Soa Palelei (-155): no play
- Luis Cane (-180): no play
- Manny Gamburyan (-375): no play
- Dean Lister (-350): -3.5u to win 1u
- Roan Carneiro (-155): .39u to win .25u
- Mark Bocek (-110): no play
