UFC 77: Hostile Territory

mutosufan · Sep 25, 2007

This is probably the best UFC fight website since I have been posting these. This is a pretty cool promo of the upcoming fights.

http://77.ufc.com/

Fight card:

<TABLE class=data_table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR class=data_title><TD colSpan=7>Rich Franklin Vs. Anderson Silva

</TD></TR><TR class=data_row><TD width=15></TD><TD vAlign=top width=150><TABLE class=data_table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=data_row><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Name:

</TD><TD>Rich Franklin

</TD></TR><TR class=data_row><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Height:</TD><TD>6' 1" </TD></TR><TR class=data_row><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Weight:</TD><TD>185 </TD></TR><TR class=data_row><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Record:</TD><TD>23-2-0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD vAlign=top width=185>

"Ace"

</TD><TD width=95>

</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right width=150><TABLE class=data_table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=data_row><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Name:</TD><TD>Anderson Silva </TD></TR><TR class=data_row><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Height:</TD><TD>6' 2" </TD></TR><TR class=data_row><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Weight:</TD><TD>185 </TD></TR><TR class=data_row><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Record: </TD><TD>19-4-0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD vAlign=top align=right width=185>

"The Spider"

</TD><TD width=15></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=silver colSpan=7></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE class=data_table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR class=data_title><TD colSpan=7>Tim Sylvia Vs. Brandon Vera

</TD></TR><TR class=data_row><TD width=15></TD><TD vAlign=top width=150><TABLE class=data_table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=data_row><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Name:</TD><TD>Tim Sylvia</TD></TR><TR class=data_row><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Height:</TD><TD>6' 8" </TD></TR><TR class=data_row><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Weight:</TD><TD>255 </TD></TR><TR class=data_row><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Record:</TD><TD>25-3-0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD vAlign=top width=185>

"The Maine-iac"

</TD><TD width=95>

</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right width=150><TABLE class=data_table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=data_row><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Name:</TD><TD>Brandon Vera </TD></TR><TR class=data_row><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Height:</TD><TD>6' 2"</TD></TR><TR class=data_row><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Weight:</TD><TD>223 </TD></TR><TR class=data_row><TD style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Record: </TD><TD>8-0-0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD vAlign=top align=right width=185>

"The Truth"

</TD><TD width=15></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=silver colSpan=7></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Light heavyweight bout: Eric Schafer vs. Stephan Bonnar
Lightweight bout: Jorge Gurgel vs. Alvin Robinson
Middleweight bout: Yushin Okami vs. Jason MacDonald
Welterweight bout: Josh Burkman vs. Forrest Petz

mutosufan · Sep 25, 2007

http://www.middletownjournal.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/2007/09/21/ddn092107franklin.html

Franklin 'leaving town' to train for UFC rematch

Cincy native says with fight being at US Bank Arena he needs to get away to focus.

By Kyle Nagel
Staff Writer

Friday, September 21, 2007
WEST CHESTER — It's not easy being a Cincinnati native preparing to fight in the Queen City's premier mixed martial arts competition.
"That's why I'm leaving town," Rich Franklin said. "It's not going to be tough at all, because I won't be here.
Franklin, said native who will face middleweight champion Anderson Silva in the Ultimate Fighting Championship's UFC 77 event Oct. 20 at US Bank Arena, will leave Monday for three weeks of training at a western location his camp maintains is undisclosed.
But it's not easy picking up camp and moving across the country. Franklin's traveling party will include three coaches and three training companions, including Jorge Gurgel, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who runs the West Chester training academy where Franklin met the media Thursday.
But such a move is necessary, Franklin said, with the excitement surrounding this event.
"It's the everyday hustle and bustle of life," Franklin said. "Getting up and checking my e-mail in the morning and having to worry about returning business calls and all that kind of stuff. Quite frankly, once I leave town Monday, when I wake up Tuesday morning for my first training day the only thing I'm going to worry about from that time to the fight is training. Everything else can fall by the wayside."
As mixed martial arts (most notably UFC, with Franklin as one of its poster boys) has mushroomed into the country's — if not the world's — fastest growing sport, the fighters have found extra responsibilities for appearing at events, such as granting interviews and meeting with fans while also training and maintaining a daily life.
"It takes away from your family and all that kind of stuff and builds distractions into your training," Franklin said. "Knowing that if I have some PR work to do this evening when I'm done training, I have to come into the gym, get my stuff done and I can't go home and rest for the remainder of the evening and plan for tomorrow's training. I have to worry about what PR is on the agenda."
There's still plenty of attention directed at Franklin, the former schoolteacher who lost his middleweight title to Silva last October and will attempt to regain the crown in front of a hometown crowd next month.
"I've obviously never had this kind of exposure locally," Franklin said from a folding table as he stared into six television cameras, two still photographers and nine more reporters Thursday at JG MMA Academy. "This is insane. As for the sport, I don't know. I think this is one of those fights that could possibly make me a hall of famer or not within the UFC." :bow:

I am an official member of the Rich Franklin Nuthugger Club

abcs · Sep 25, 2007

I'm not too familiar with all of the guys on the card. But I do like the Spider in the main event.

Toronto_Mike · Sep 25, 2007

i'm interested in the Okami vs McDonald fight

mogo · Sep 25, 2007

Okami is fighting again????? geez they are really working this guy.....

this will be his 5th fight since 10/14/06.... 5 fights in a year seems like an awful lot to me....

<TABLE class=wikitable style="FONT-SIZE: 85%; TEXT-ALIGN: left"><TBODY><TR><TD class=table-no2 style="BACKGROUND: #ffdddd; COLOR: black">Loss</TD><TD>Rich Franklin</TD><TD>Decision (Unanimous)</TD><TD>UFC 72: Victory</TD><TD>6/16/2007</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>5:00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=table-yes2 style="BACKGROUND: #ddffdd; COLOR: black">Win</TD><TD>Mike Swick</TD><TD>Decision (Unanimous)</TD><TD>UFC 69: Shootout</TD><TD>4/07/2007</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>5:00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=table-yes2 style="BACKGROUND: #ddffdd; COLOR: black">Win</TD><TD>Rory Singer</TD><TD>Submission (Punches)</TD><TD>UFC 66: Liddell VS Ortiz</TD><TD>12/30/2006</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>4:03</TD></TR><TR><TD class=table-yes2 style="BACKGROUND: #ddffdd; COLOR: black">Win</TD><TD>Kalib Starnes</TD><TD>TKO (Strikes)</TD><TD>UFC 64: Unstoppable</TD><TD>10/14/2006</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1:40</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

mutosufan · Sep 25, 2007

abcs - as far as "big" names on this card, there are not many. Especially for the casual fans out there. They do this because they knew Franklin would sell the fight because it is in Cincy. This isnt the only card that has been this way that has been fought outside of Las Vegas. But I agree with you, however there are some interesting fights here. The Vera/Sylvia fight is a very nice 2nd fight. Vera is finally back in the cage. I will be differing with you on the main event though

rayer.

Toronto - I am too, but Okami is so freaking big and MacDonald is such a small MW that I have a feeling he gets manhandled in there. The thing that could save JM is Okami doesnt have much agression, ie Franklin. Franklin went in the cage against JM and just abused him! Okami is much more finesse and looks for subs.

Mogo - That is a shitload of fights for 1 year. But if you look at his ways of winning and losing, or if you have watched his fights, he doesnt take much damage, or dish much out. He basically ran from Franklin when they fought until the 3rd round and that was, IMO, just because Franklin got tripped up and Okami found and arm hanging there for a kimura. Roger Huerta has fought 5 times over the last 12 months.

mutosufan · Oct 4, 2007

UFC 77 Early Betting Analysis

UFC 77 is still several weeks away but a few sites have betting odds posted on several fights already. All Odds Provide by 5Dimes.
Anderson Silva (-220) defends his UFC Middleweight title against the previous champion and UFC fan favorite Rich Franklin (+180) in a rematch that is very intriguing. Originally, the informed opinion was that Silva was lucky to beat Franklin and explained the "fluke" as a poor fight strategy by the former champ. A year later now and Silva is one of the most respected fighters in the world and is widely considered the most dangerous striker in MMA today.
Silva has been spectacular in each of his title defenses since claiming the UFC title. He has displayed a wide variety of MMA skills and has effectively shut down all his opponents strengths. Silva is now seen by many as invincible.

[SIZE=-1]"Silva will win the fight just as easily as he won the first one, it just might last a little longer. I don't think anyone currently in the UFC has any chance at beating him (in his weight class). I thought Marquardt was going to do well, but we know how that turned out." -dreamfield[/SIZE]

Maybe the oddsmakers are not as convinced. -200 is about the same as an NFL team favored by a field goal, which isn't exactly a sure thing. So, can Franklin regain the title?

[SIZE=-1]"Well, the key to Rich's victory is to take Anderson down every chance he gets and pound him like an Everlast punching bag. Anderson's got a small head, and it's never been tested either 'cause nobody's been able to hit him. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]It would be hard to persuade anyone that Rich can beat Silva, just because everybody underrates Rich. Yet they'll say Henderson can beat Silva... even though I'd rank Henderson and Rich equally. If you look at these guys' record, Henderson has a lot of uneventful decisions. Rich has one loss to Anderson from a bad gameplan and an anticlimactic decision to Okami, and suddenly he's not the same fighter? Henderson wasn't valued half as much as he was, until he knocked out a Wand with strep throat. It's all about last impressions in this case" -infamoushamster[/SIZE]

What it really boils down to is...Is Rich Franklin the same fighter he was before the first fight? If you think Franklin has recovered physically and mentally from the first loss then you should consider him a fairly good bet to double your money. On the other hand, If you think that Franklin has struggled since that night, while Silva has improved his game to a different level then -200 on the Spider looks pretty nice.
Japanese ground n pounder, Yushin Okami, opened up as a small favorite over TUF assassin Jason MacDonald at 5Dimes.
Okami -135
MacDonald -105
Okami is one of the few Japanese fighters to successfully enter the UFC. His physique is more defined than the some of the “chunkier” fighters from the far east. Okami is very good at cutting weight then entering the ring as a much larger and stronger opponent than most fighters in his weight class are used to. Mike Swick’s first words to his corner at UFC 69 were “He’s strong!” Okami is known as a methodical mauler who simply uses his superior strength to limit the opponents attack, then he unloads his effective ground attack of punishing punches from a dominant position. Many consider Rich Franklin very fortunate to come out a winner in their previous fight.
Jason MacDonald is an athletic submission specialist who also lost to Franklin recently. MacDonald lacks the crisp powerful punches necessary to keep Okami at a distance. Look for Okami to work his way in close to MacDonald where he can take him to the ground and control the action. This is a bad matchup for MacDonald and Okami was huge a bargain at -135. This is exactly the situation that MMA bettors love, the oddsmakers occassionally get it wrong. Okami has since been bet to -240 where he belongs.

abcs · Oct 4, 2007

Vera is on the fast track to the top. Obviously he will be at a disadvantage with his height in the fight. Vera has finished all of his fights with relative ease. I still dont think he deserves being the favorite in the fight. I see value in the dog.

mutosufan · Oct 4, 2007

I was hoping Franklin would be +200 or better, considering the beating he took in the first fight. But +165-185 seems is where I though it should be, but didnt think it would actually open there.

I am definately not a dog bettor in any sport, here and there I play them if I think they can win outright, but I have 2 dogs on this card that I think will win outright...Franklin and Sylvia. Okami is also a play for me, but unsure how I will play him.

mutosufan · Oct 4, 2007

abcs said:
Vera is on the fast track to the top. Obviously he will be at a disadvantage with his height in the fight. Vera has finished all of his fights with relative ease. I still dont think he deserves being the favorite in the fight. I see value in the dog.

I agree. Sylvia's back concerns me. Vera is a very small HW. 220ish. HE could cut to 205 without any effort at all. He has a little softness around him.

mutosufan · Oct 7, 2007

Franklin’s keys to reclaiming the title

By Michael DiSanto
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Holding on to a title in MMA isn’t easy. Just ask the six champions who left the UFC Octagon without their belts in the last 12 months.

It all started when Anderson Silva stopped Rich Franklin to win the UFC middleweight crown on October 14, 2006, at UFC 64. At the very next UFC pay-per-view event, Georges St-Pierre knocked out Matt Hughes to win the 170-lb crown in a one-sided affair. A few months later, Randy Couture came out of retirement and shocked the world by pounding out Tim Sylvia to win the heavyweight crown at UFC 68.

Less than a month later, St-Pierre lost his title to UFC veteran Matt Serra in what must be considered the upset of the year. Chuck Liddell was next in line to suffer defeat. At UFC 71, Liddell suffered a stunning knockout loss to PRIDE Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. And just last month, Jackson unified the UFC and PRIDE 205-lb titles by defeating then-PRIDE champion Dan Henderson at UFC 75.

Twelve months. Six former champions. Franklin wants to make it seven, and the former champion will attempt to continue the trend of division coups in his hometown of Cincinnati, Ohio at UFC 77 on October 20.

If Franklin wants to maximize his chances of winning on October 20, he needs to find a way to take the fight to the ground early in every round and keep it there.

Silva has a black belt in jiu-jitsu, but it is undeniable that he is far more dangerous on his feet than from his back. That point is best illustrated by the breakdown of Silva’s 19 career wins. “The Spider” ended 11 of those wins by knockout and three by submission, but two of those three submissions resulted from strikes, not a submission hold.

The champion does have an extremely good triangle choke. Travis Lutter, a highly skilled jiu-jitsu practitioner, found that out first hand when Silva submitted him with that very hold at UFC 67 last February. Nevertheless, he hasn’t shown the ability to submit opponents with arm bars, knee bars, oma platas, kimuras or any other submission hold from his back. Instead, Silva typically uses his guard to set up a triangle or an opportunity to scramble back to his feet, where he is a top of the food chain striker with brutal power in his fists, knees and kicks.

Some would argue that Franklin is a better jiu-jitsu practitioner than a kickboxer. If he takes the action to the ground against Silva, Franklin will be at a distinct advantage.
He has excellent hips and rarely loses control of an opponent once he secures the top position, and he will have similar success against Silva, who has good, but not amazing, scrambling skills.

From the top position, Franklin can begin to soften up Silva with punches and elbows. His ground and pound will both score points on the judges’ cards and slowly sap Silva of his power. That will allow Franklin to have more success if the fight works back to the feet.

Basically, the betting underdog will become a big favorite the minute the action hits the canvas.

The problem, however, is that Franklin does not have a wrestling background. As a result, his takedowns are average, if not slightly below average for an elite UFC fighter. Silva has very good takedown defense – a good sprawl and good balance. So he will struggle to take the fight to the ground if Silva
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expects a takedown attempt.

The real question for Franklin, therefore, is how will he take down Silva?

The simple answer is that he needs to change up his habits to increase the odds of succeeding on his takedown attempts. In virtually all of his fights, Franklin comes out, touches gloves with his opponent, and then hunts and pecks with jabs and range-finding left hands in the opening moments until he finds openings to score with more effective combinations and big power shots.

Silva undoubtedly expects Franklin to approach their title fight in precisely the same fashion. He will be focused on cutting off the ring while looking for opportunities to land big shots and secure a Thai clinch while Franklin kickboxes on the outside. He won’t be thinking about defending the takedown in the opening moments.

Franklin should leverage those expectations by giving the appearance that he is going to begin the fight by feeling out Silva from the outside. He should come out very relaxed and touch gloves, as always. Then, instead of circling behind a jab, he should feint a jab and immediately shoot for the takedown.

A successful takedown early in the fight will give Franklin the opportunity to set the tone by dominating the action where he has a distinct advantage. It will also create doubt in Silva’s mind as to when Franklin will next shoot for a takedown, which will make the former champion’s standup much more effective as the fight continues.

Granted, shooting for a takedown out of the gate is a risky proposition. If Silva is waiting for an early takedown attempt, Franklin may end up unconscious after eating a flying knee. If Silva misses the knee or isn’t prepared to fire it, then there is a high probability that Franklin will either complete the takedown or he might be able to pull guard. Either way, the action will be on the ground, where Franklin has a distinct advantage.

Of course, the former champion is not chopped liver on the feet. His 9-1 UFC record includes six knockouts. The southpaw has fast hands with real knockout power. Critics question his power, but the ferocious knockout win over Quarry will forever serve as a resounding answer.

If he catches Silva on the button, he will win by knockout. The same statement applies to Silva. We already know that he has the ability to knock out Franklin. He did just that in their first bout.

Can Silva submit Franklin? Anything can happen inside the Octagon, but it is far less likely that Silva will win by submission rather than knockout. Franklin should remain focused on that fact and work to bring the fight to the ground at every opportunity.

If he does that, then it is very likely that Silva will be number seven.

mutosufan · Oct 8, 2007

Unfortunatly this will not be on ESPN. I get fired up for the weigh-ins. To the point of leaving work early and getting a few drinks ready. I know I am reaching here, but hey. And I cant get the letters off bold! I am not trying to emphasize my displeasure.

UFC 77: Watch the weigh-in event for Hostile Territory online next Friday

<SMALL class=metadata></SMALL>

Fighters competing on the UFC 77: “Hostile Territory” card — including Anderson Silva, Rich Franklin, Tim Sylvia, Brandon Vera and more — will all tip the scales on Friday, October 19 from 3-5 p.m. ET for the official weigh-in.
Of course, the special event at the U.S. Bank Arena in Cincinnati, Ohio, is free to attend and open to the general public. It will also be available online via streaming video on UFC.com and “other outlets.”

Here are the particulars via UFC.com:

Time: 3 - 5 p.m. ET (Fighters will begin weigh ins at about 4 p.m. ET)

Location:

U.S. Bank Arena.

(Directions)

Address:

100 Broadway

Cincinnati, Ohio

45202

As usual, we will post the results in real-time during the event next Friday for those who miss the broadcast. In addition, UFCmania.com will provide LIVE blow-by-blow coverage and results of UFC 77 the following day right here.
UFC 77: “Hostile Territory” will take place on Saturday, October 20, at the U.S. Bank Arena in Cincinnati, Ohio. The pay-per-view (PPV) broadcast will air at 10 p.m. ET. For the complete UFC 77 fight card click here.

mutosufan · Oct 12, 2007

UFC 77: ‘Hostile Territory’ conference call highlights (Audio)

<SMALL class=metadata></SMALL>
Prior to the major news about the resignation of UFC Heavyweight Champion Randy Couture yesterday there was a conference call to promote the sold-out UFC 77: “Hostile Territory” event in Cincinnati, Ohio, that takes place next weekend on October 20 at the U.S. Bank Arena.
UFC President Dana White, UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva, former UFC middleweight champion Rich Franklin, former heavyweight champion Tim Sylvia and Brandon Vera all participated on the call.
“Mr. Sunshine” sent us over a very cool post that includes edited audio snips/highlights from the actual call. It gives our readers a pretty cool inside-look on what goes on behind the scenes prior to a major pay-per-view (PPV) event.
Dana White:

The middleweight fight between Yushin Okami and Jason MacDonald is not for a number one contender slot in the division. UFC president Dana White mentioned that there were “a lot of guys in the mix” for a title shot and that is is still possible that Dan Henderson will compete at 185 pounds.
Tim Sylvia, Brandon Vera and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, according to White, are among the top fighters in the division and all three will more than likely be considered for a title shot with wins in their next bouts.

Tim Sylvia:

Sylvia is feeling great — back surgery went awesome and his pain is all gone. Someone is “going to sleep” during his bout with “The Truth.”
Sylvia believes that Vera’s lack of activity in the last year will not come into play in the fight. Both will come to bang. His stand up is good and he’s got a lot of good assets. He’s ready for a tough fight.
Win or lose Sylvia wants to fight again in early 2008.

Brandon Vera:

Being married to another fighter is “pretty cool.” His life is much easier at home. Hardest part is watching her get in the ring.
His layoff sucked. But he has been training and keeping himself motivated. Took a trip over to Thailand. He now pays more attention to details inside and outside of the cage.
Sylvia’s size causes a big problem. Timing and range is much different. Something he has trained for with other big guys. It’s the smallest heavyweight in the division against the biggest.
He’s prepared well and is ready to see what happens.

Anderson Silva:

Silva is more experienced than the first time he fought Franklin last year. Doesn’t feel he’s any better — just more experienced.
Once the Octagon door closes it won’t matter where the fight takes place. He is not intimidated about it happening in Cincinnati. Fans can expect a phenomenal fight. Both fighters are going to leave it all in the Octagon.
He has not underestimated Franklin. Silva has trained really hard and he is motivated to put on a good show for the fans. He owes it to the fans and the UFC to put on a good fight.
Silva doesn’t feel that the UFC wants Franklin to be champion. This is an important bout for both fighters. It’s going to be the fight of the night if not the year.

Rich Franklin:

Does not have his trademark black eye … yet. However, his lip did get “busted open” during training.
His training has changed quite a bit. To get away from the media circus in Cincinnati he has moved his entire camp into the mountains of Wyoming. Refreshing to get out of the city and there is nothing to do but train in Wyoming.
Training four to five hours per day.
Anderson is number one in the weightclass and he wants to fight the best guys. He wants to perform well and set things straight in his own mind.
He realizes now that in the initial fight he didn’t put enough time in to study Silva. This time there was a lot of emphasis on breaking down film.
Anderson showed resilience on the ground against Travis Lutter. He’s very versatile. Showed great poise in win over Nate Marquardt.
Had a really sore nose after loss to Silva.
Unsure whether or not training in high altitude will help him during the fight because it is the first time he has really tried it.

Remember you can listen to all of this audio right here.
In addition, UFCmania.com will have LIVE online blow-by-blow coverage of the event next Saturday. To check out the complete UFC 77 fight card click here.

mogo · Oct 12, 2007

Had a really sore nose after loss to Silva.

:36_11_6: LMFAO!!! O RLY??? JUST a sore nose huh.....

mutosufan · Oct 12, 2007

mogo said:
Had a really sore nose after loss to Silva.

:36_11_6: LMFAO!!! O RLY??? JUST a sore nose huh.....

Yeah, I thought that was pretty good. You have to watch Franklin, he has a dry sense of humor and will drop one in there like that every now and again.

mutosufan · Oct 15, 2007

- JASON MACDONALD READY TO PUSH THE PACE
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sunday, October 14, 2007 - by Matt Hill[/FONT]

<HR><CENTER>

</CENTER>Here’s a question…

What two things do Ed Herman, Chris Leben and Rory Singer have in common?

Think about it for a second…

If you said that they were each on the hit Spike TV show, The Ultimate Fighter, you’d be right. But, there is something else… have you guessed it yet?

The second thing these three men have in common is that they each have Ultimate Fighting Championship losses on their record thanks to ‘The Athlete’ Jason MacDonald.

MacDonald is a talented Canadian fighter who burst onto the UFC scene in his Octagon debut by finishing Ed Herman, a Team Quest fighter from Oregon, with a triangle choke in the first round.

So often much is made about fighters’ nerves getting the best of them when they hit the “big show” for the first time, but MacDonald broke the mold by making his first UFC entrance look second-natured.

After his victory against Herman, he then beat Herman’s Team Quest teammate Chris Leben in Las Vegas last December by modified guillotine choke, before failing to answer the bell for the third round in his next fight against former UFC champ Rich Franklin in Columbus, Ohio, this past March.

MacDonald’s most recent outing pitted him against HardCore Gym-trained fighter Rory Singer. He overwhelmed the Georgia native and finished Singer off with strikes at the 3:18 mark of round two. The win kept him on track for a possible UFC title shot against either Rich Franklin or current middleweight champion Anderson Silva, depending on which man walks away with the title on Oct. 20.

The same night that the aforementioned middleweight title is up for grabs, MacDonald steps into the Octagon as well. Not for a belt just yet, but instead to compete against powerful Japanese fighter Yushin Okami. It is a fight that has obvious title implications for the victor.

Both Okami and MacDonald are tall, strong middleweights, but opponents of Okami have reiterated afterwards that his power in the cage seems to throw each of them off of their original game plans.

MacDonald knows that one of his opponent’s foremost strengths lies in his power and he trained accordingly, filling a good portion of his time during training camp competing with big, powerful guys.

“I don’t see (size) being a huge issue in this fight because I think a lot of people consider me to be a pretty big middleweight as well,” he told MMAWeekly. “I started training camp around 209-212 pounds, so I don’t think it’s going to be a huge factor in the fight. But you don’t want to leave any rock unturned, so I went down there to train with some big guys just to make sure that I was prepared come Oct. 20 to deal with some big, strong guys.”

If MacDonald does manage a victory against Okami, it seems that from a fan’s point of view, he would be either next in line or pretty darn close to the front of the line for a shot at the title. He seems to agree with that contention.

“The way the middleweight division stands right now, there just aren’t a lot of contenders. I definitely consider myself one of the contenders. I do have a loss to Rich Franklin back in March and I learned a lot from that loss. I came back with a win over [Rory] Singer. I’m looking to get in there and get another big win over Okami and put myself back in a position where I maybe get a shot at the title sometime this year.”

Anyone who has watched Okami fight knows that he likes to keep a pretty slow pace during his fights… sometimes to his favor, and sometimes to his demise. But many people wonder if the tempo of his fights directly relates to the quality of his cardio.

When asked about it, MacDonald said, “You hit the nail on the head there.

“I feel like if I can push the pace really fast on Okami, I have a feeling that I can break him down in those first two rounds and not ever have to worry about him coming alive in that third round.”

Not necessarily a bad game plan seeing how the fight went when Okami stepped into the cage with Mike Swick.

“You watch the Swick fight … he had Mike Swick outweighed by 20-some pounds. Mike said that he got into the ring at about 183 or 182 pounds, and Okami was definitely well over 200 and even in that fight you see that fatigue was a big factor. You see in that fight Okami had him mounted and just looked too tired to finish him off.”

Jason realizes that his last performance in Ohio left his fans wanting more and this time he’s ready to provide a different outcome.

“I was very disappointed in my performance against Rich and I’m definitely looking to come back to Ohio and break the curse and put on a great show for the fans of Ohio,” Jason said.

So how does ‘The Athlete’ feel this fight will go down in the end?

“I’m not sure that he can fight at the pace that I’m going to push in these first two rounds … at least I’m hoping that he’s not going to be able to fight at that pace. If he is, then we’ve got a fight on our hands, but if he can’t then I see me just wearing him out and taking him to the deep end and then making him make a mistake … and then I’ll be ready to capitalize on it,” Jason said.

mutosufan · Oct 16, 2007

“Countdown to UFC 77″ Debuts Tonight on Spike TV

Posted by MMA Junkie on October 16, 2007 at 11:01 am ET

Spike TV will debut “Countdown to UFC 77” tonight at 11 p.m. ET/PT.
Replays are scheduled for Friday at 11 p.m. ET/PT and Saturday at 6 p.m. ET/PT.
The hour-long program will focus on current UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva and former champ Rich Franklin as they prepare for their main-bout bout, which takes Saturday at U.S. Bank Arena in downtown Cincinnati.
UFC 77 airs on pay-per-view.
In additional to Silva vs. Franklin, UFC 77 features a pivotal heavyweight battle between former champ Tim Sylvia, who returns to the Octagon for the first time since losing his belt to Randy Couture in March, and Brandon Vera, who hasn’t fought in nearly a year due to issues with his former manager. Middleweights Alan Belcher and Kalib Starnes, and light heavyweights Stephan Bonnar and Eric Schafer are also booked for the night’s televised main card.
The MMAjunkie.com team has teamed up with American Fighter to host a series of star-studded UFC 77 parties here in Cincinnati leading up to Saturday’s event.
Additionally, you can still win floor seats to Saturday’s event, as well as VIP access to Friday’s party! Check out our UFC 77 contest for all the details.

mutosufan · Oct 17, 2007

Video interview with Franklin..."It wount be like last time!"

http://ufcmania.com/2007/10/17/rich...n-silva-not-going-to-be-like-last-time-video/

mutosufan · Oct 17, 2007

UFC Quick Quote: Sylvia/Vera winner to fight Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira for vacant heavyweight title

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“The winner of the Brandon Vera-Tim Sylvia fight on Saturday at UFC 77 in Cincinnati will meet Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira for the vacant heavyweight title sometime early next year.”

– Yahoo!Sports.com reports that the winner of the fight between Brandon Vera and Tim Sylvia this weekend will challenge Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira for the vacant heavyweight title. “Big Nog” was penciled in to clash with Cheick Kongo; however, the status of that showdown could have changed with the recent resignation of reigning UFC Heavyweight Champion, Randy Couture. SuperBowl weekend on February 2, 2008, would appear to be the likely slot for this title fight to happen (that’s speculation.)

mutosufan · Oct 17, 2007

Tim Sylvia: ‘The old Tim is back’ against Brandon Vera at UFC 77

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Former heavyweight champion Tim Sylvia is injury-free and has a new boxing coach, declaring to the Canadian Press that the “Old Tim is Back.”
You know, the guy who punted Tre Telligman’s head into the third row at UFC 54 and stopped guys like Andrei Arlovski, Ricco Rodriguez, Gan McGee and Wes Sims with strikes? Not the one who was content grinding out snooze-fests against Arlovski, Assuerio Silva and Jeff Monson.
That Tim.
Here’s a snip:

“… the game plans we put together (against Andrei Arlovski and Jeff Monson) were to go out there and win, at all costs, but do it safely [under former boxing coach Matt Pena]. Some of my last few fights haven’t been that exciting so I just hired a new boxing coach (Teddy Mueller). I’m doing a few different things and I think the old Tim’s back, the guy that went out there and knocked people out the first and second round. So I’m going to go out there and give it my best and try and knock Brandon out. Being the fighter that I am, I’m not the type of guy that likes to go to a decision. I’m not the kind of guy that likes to do ground and pound or submissions, I want to knock the guy out standing up.”

“The Mainiac” will have the opportunity to showcase his refined skills against undefeated talent Brandon Vera at UFC 77: “Hostile Territory” this weekend during the co main event at the U.S. Bank Arena in Cincinnati, Ohio.
It’s a fight that pits perhaps the biggest fighter in the division (6′8″, 265 pounds) against it’s smallest (6′2″, 220 pounds). In fact, Vera admits that he can make the 205-pound light heavyweight limit “without even trying.”
The size difference is something that clearly doesn’t concern “The Truth” much. And it may not be such a huge factor since it is just a three-round bout.
But the “old” Sylvia has demonstrated that if he hits you on the button, more often than not, he puts you to sleep. Furthermore, he has never been knocked out — just two submission defeats and a unanimous decision loss are the only blemishes on his record.
Put simply, this is a very difficult fight for Vera if indeed the old Tim is back.

mutosufan · Oct 17, 2007

Here are a list of bars that will be showing the fights for free around the country:

Too long to post.

http://ufcmania.com/2007/10/17/watc...rs-and-restaurants-airing-the-ppv-event-list/

mutosufan · Oct 17, 2007

Eleven months have passed since Brandon Vera (8-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) last stepped into the octagon, but the promising UFC heavyweight isn’t worried about the time off.
In fact, when Vera faces former champ Tim Sylvia this weekend at UFC 77, he says fans will see a new fighter — a better, more experienced striker with a new array of weapons.
“I’ve definitely stayed busy,” Vera recently told MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com). “I’ve been training that whole time since (my last fight). There was no layoff. I’ve gone overseas, to Thailand and the Philippines, and specifically concentrated on my boxing and strengthened my stand-up.“
And ring rust?
“No way, man,” he said. “I’ve been going hard with two-a-day workouts and studying past fights and incorporating new techniques. I’m ready.“
Back in November, Vera scored a quick 69-second TKO of former heavyweight champ Frank Mir. The convincing victory thrust Vera into the title picture, and the UFC began preparations for a UFC 68 main event between him and then-champ Sylvia back in March. The fight, though, would never happen. The UFC first wanted Vera to sign a contact extension, but what would become a very-public spat between Vera and his former manager, Mark Dion, kept a deal from being reached.
Vera has since split ways with Dion, and Sylvia has since lost the belt to Randy Couture.
And though Saturday’s fight with Sylvia is no longer for the title, Vera isn’t worried.
“It’s still a big one,” Vera said. “Tim’s still a very tough opponent… and there’s a lot on the line.“
He’s right. Couture vacated the title when he announced his resignation from the UFC last week, and according to Kevin Iole of Yahoo! Sports, the winner of Saturday’s fight will battle Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira for the vacant title early next year.

mutosufan · Oct 18, 2007

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]- WHERE IS ANDERSON SILVA?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Wednesday, October 17, 2007 - by MMAWeekly.com[/FONT]

<HR><CENTER></CENTER>CINCINNATI – Ultimate Fighting Championship middleweight champion Anderson Silva has yet to arrive for this Saturday’s event at the U.S. Bank Arena. He is scheduled to defend his belt against challenger Rich Franklin, whom he relieved of the title one year ago at UFC 64.

According to sources close to the Silva, he had planned to be in town by now along with the other UFC 77 fighters, but there were delays in the issuance of his work visa.

Apparently, due to a recent holiday, government offices in Brazil were closed this past Friday and Monday thus delaying his visa being issued. He evidently did receive the visa on Wednesday and hopes to arrive in Cincinnati on Thursday.

Most UFC fighters typically arrive four to five days prior to an event to fulfill the necessary media and production requirements, as well as getting acclimated to their surroundings and finish any last minute weight cutting.

With Silva arriving just two days prior to his fight, as long as there are no further delays, questions are sure to abound as to whether or not it will affect his performance come Saturday night.

mutosufan · Oct 18, 2007

UFC invades Cincinnati for UFC 77: Hostile Territory on Saturday. Rich Franklin attempts to regain the middleweight title from Anderson "The Spider" Silva in front of his hometown audience. Also, Tim Sylvia and Brandon Vera battle in a fight that will help determine which fighter will compete for Randy Couture's vacated heavyweight title on a future show.
To help you get ready for UFC 77, CBSSports.com has a complete look at each fight on the card, with analysis from our resident MMA experts. Take a look, and then discuss your own predictions on the message board at the bottom of this page.
Demian Maia photo courtesy of MMAPredictions.com. All other fighter photos courtesy of UFC.


<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD align=middle colSpan=5>UFC Middleweight Title Bout:</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD align=left rowSpan=9>

</TD><TD align=left>ANDERSON SILVA</TD><TD align=middle>vs.</TD><TD align=right>RICH FRANKLIN</TD><TD align=right rowSpan=9>

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>"The Spider"</TD><TD align=middle>Nickname</TD><TD align=right>"Ace"</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>32</TD><TD align=middle>Age</TD><TD align=right>33</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>5'11"</TD><TD align=middle>Height</TD><TD align=right>6'1"</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>19-4-0 (4-0 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>Record</TD><TD align=right>22-2-0 (9-1 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>11 (3 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>KO/TKOs</TD><TD align=right>11 (6 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>2 (1 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>Submissions</TD><TD align=right>9 (1 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>5 wins</TD><TD align=middle>Streak</TD><TD align=right>2 wins</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>def. Nate Marquardt
UFC 73
7/7/2007</TD><TD align=middle>Last Fight</TD><TD align=right>def. Yushin Okami
UFC 72
6/16/2007</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD align=left colSpan=5>Expert Picks</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Denny Burkholder: When Silva took Franklin's title last year, he absolutely crushed him in the first round. This will be more of a fight than the first encounter. I don't think Franklin will be as easy to trap this time, but still, Silva should retain.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Sam Caplan: A year is enough time to substantially improve your clinch work. However, it's not nearly enough time to master Silva's clinch. The only way I see Franklin possibly winning this fight is if he puts Silva on his back and controls his position with superior wrestling.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Todd Martin: I think Silva is in Franklin's head, and Silva is not the fighter you want to be tentative against. Franklin will make a better showing than the last fight, but Silva will overwhelm him.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Ben Fowlkes: Rich Franklin certainly learned some painful lessons in their first fight, but he still lacks the tools to mount an effective offense against Silva. If he can get into the later rounds and put his legendary cardio to work Franklin's odds get much better. Too bad that's a very big if.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD align=middle colSpan=5>Heavyweight Bout:</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD align=left rowSpan=9>

</TD><TD align=left>TIM SYLVIA</TD><TD align=middle>vs.</TD><TD align=right>BRANDON VERA</TD><TD align=right rowSpan=9>

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>"The Maine-iac"</TD><TD align=middle>Nickname</TD><TD align=right>"The Truth"</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>31</TD><TD align=middle>Age</TD><TD align=right>30</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>6'8"</TD><TD align=middle>Height</TD><TD align=right>6'2"</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>23-3 (8-3 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>Record</TD><TD align=right>8-0 (4-0 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>16 (5 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>KO/TKOs</TD><TD align=right>6 (3 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>2 (0 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>Submissions</TD><TD align=right>1 (1 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>1 loss</TD><TD align=middle>Streak</TD><TD align=right>8 wins</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>lost to Randy Couture
UFC 68
3/3/2007</TD><TD align=middle>Last Fight</TD><TD align=right>def. Frank Mir
UFC 65
11/18/2006</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD align=left colSpan=5>Expert Picks</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Denny Burkholder: Vera has won 75 percent of his fights by KO or TKO. The problem is, Sylvia has never been knocked out, and can be very good at controlling position. I think Vera takes the win by TKO, but not until Round 3.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Sam Caplan: If the old, aggressive Tim Sylvia shows up then this fight will be extremely interesting. But if he tries to play the outside game too much then Vera will close the distance with kicks, knees, and punches and win via brutal TKO.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Todd Martin: Vera has passed all his tests thus far, but Sylvia is a step up in competition and a bad style match-up to boot. If Sylvia is fully healthy, he should take this fight.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Ben Fowlkes: Once again Sylvia will rely on his size, reach advantage, and awkwardly powerful striking, but it won't be enough against Vera, who manages to be explosive without being reckless. He might have a tough time finishing Sylvia, but Vera will take this one and continue his climb up the heavyweight ladder.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD align=middle colSpan=5>Lightweight Bout:</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD align=left rowSpan=9>

</TD><TD align=left>ALVIN ROBINSON</TD><TD align=middle>vs.</TD><TD align=right>JORGE GURGEL</TD><TD align=right rowSpan=9>

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>"Kid"</TD><TD align=middle>Nickname</TD><TD align=right>n/a</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>25</TD><TD align=middle>Age</TD><TD align=right>30</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>5'9"</TD><TD align=middle>Height</TD><TD align=right>5'9"</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>8-2-0 (0-1 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>Record</TD><TD align=right>11-2 (2-1 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=middle>KO/TKOs</TD><TD align=right>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>8 (0 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>Submissions</TD><TD align=right>9 (0 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>1 loss</TD><TD align=middle>Streak</TD><TD align=right>2 wins</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>lost to Kenny Florian
UFC 73
7/7/2007</TD><TD align=middle>Last Fight</TD><TD align=right>def. Diego Saraiva
UFC 73
7/7/2007</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD align=left colSpan=5>Expert Picks</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Denny Burkholder: Gurgel is the only UFC fighter with a history of choking CBSSports.com writers unconscious. Even if he weren't, I'd still predict a win for Gurgel because he's got the tools and I think he'll want it more, due to location. Also, I fear him.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Sam Caplan: Gurgel is a great fight trainer and has strong BJJ skills but he's not a well-rounded fighter. Robinson is stronger, quicker, and more aggressive. I am expecting Robinson to win in a lopsided affair.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Todd Martin: Robinson has great submissions, but Gurgel will capitalize on his more well rounded skills and home field advantage to get the win.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Ben Fowlkes: Robinson may be a contender some day, but he's not there yet. Gurgel has too many weapons and is too smart. As long as he doesn't get careless or overly confident, Gurgel should be able to pick Robinson apart.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD align=middle colSpan=5>Light Heavyweight Bout:</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD align=left rowSpan=9>

</TD><TD align=left>STEPHAN BONNAR</TD><TD align=middle>vs.</TD><TD align=right>ERIC SCHAFER</TD><TD align=right rowSpan=9>

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>"American Psycho"</TD><TD align=middle>Nickname</TD><TD align=right>"Ravishing Red"</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>30</TD><TD align=middle>Age</TD><TD align=right>30</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>6'4"</TD><TD align=middle>Height</TD><TD align=right>6'3"</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>10-4 (4-3 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>Record</TD><TD align=right>7-2-2 (1-1 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>1 (0 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>KO/TKOs</TD><TD align=right>0</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>7 (2 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>Submissions</TD><TD align=right>5 (1 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>1 win</TD><TD align=middle>Streak</TD><TD align=right>1 loss</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>def. Mike Nickels
UFC 73
7/7/2007</TD><TD align=middle>Last Fight</TD><TD align=right>lost to Michael Bisping
UFC 66
12/30/2006 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD align=left colSpan=5>Expert Picks</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Denny Burkholder: The only guys to beat Bonnar in UFC (Forrest Griffin and Rashad Evans) had to settle for decisions. Bonnar has never been finished in UFC, and Schafer won't be the first to do it. "American Psycho" wins this via submission.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Sam Caplan: Bonnar is one of the most underrated fighters in MMA. I think we'll see some substantial improvement now that he's receiving improved training at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas after relocating from Chicago. My pick is Bonnar by second round TKO.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Todd Martin: Schafer's strength is his submission ability, and Bonnar has strong enough jiu jitsu to neutralize that. Bonnar will win with strikes.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Ben Fowlkes: Bonnar is extremely difficult to finish and he has a talent for finding ways to win. Schafer's best bet is to catch him in a submission early on, but that would mean succeeding where some very accomplished fighters have failed. Bonnar needs this one like he needs a clean drug test afterwards – very badly.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD align=middle colSpan=5>Middleweight Bout:</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD align=left rowSpan=9>

</TD><TD align=left>ALAN BELCHER</TD><TD align=middle>vs.</TD><TD align=right>KALIB STARNES</TD><TD align=right rowSpan=9>

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>"The Talent"</TD><TD align=middle>Nickname</TD><TD align=right>n/a</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>23</TD><TD align=middle>Age</TD><TD align=right>32</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>6'2"</TD><TD align=middle>Height</TD><TD align=right>6'3"</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>10-3 (2-2 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>Record</TD><TD align=right>8-1-1 (2-1 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>6 (1 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>KO/TKOs</TD><TD align=right>2 (0 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>3 (1 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>Submissions</TD><TD align=right>5 (1 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>1 win</TD><TD align=middle>Streak</TD><TD align=right>1 win</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>def. Sean Salmon
UFC 71
5/26/2007</TD><TD align=middle>Last Fight</TD><TD align=right>def. Chris Leben
UFC 71
5/26/2007 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD align=left colSpan=5>Expert Picks</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Denny Burkholder: Starnes had a great win over an improved Chris Leben, while Belcher is still looking for a win over a bigger-name opponent. I predict Belcher, but I think Starnes will give him some trouble. </TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Sam Caplan: Belcher is a powerful, aggressive fighter who is a bad matchup for Starnes. I expect this fight to end early with Belcher winning via TKO. Starnes' only hope is to get the fight to the ground and keep it there.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Todd Martin: This is an important fight for both men, and a hard one to call. I give the narrow edge to Belcher.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Ben Fowlkes: This could easily be the sleeper fight of the night. Both guys are durable and well-rounded, and both are still looking to climb out of the middle of the pack. Expect it to go all three rounds, with Starnes' hand getting raised at the end.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD align=middle colSpan=5>Middleweight Bout:</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD align=left rowSpan=9>

</TD><TD align=left>JASON MACDONALD</TD><TD align=middle>vs.</TD><TD align=right>YUSHIN OKAMI</TD><TD align=right rowSpan=9>

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>"The Athlete"</TD><TD align=middle>Nickname</TD><TD align=right>n/a</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>32</TD><TD align=middle>Age</TD><TD align=right>26</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>6'3"</TD><TD align=middle>Height</TD><TD align=right>6'2"</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>19-8 (3-1 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>Record</TD><TD align=right>20-4 (4-1 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>2 (2 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>KO/TKOs</TD><TD align=right>7 (1 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>16 (1 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>Submissions</TD><TD align=right>4 (1 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>1 win</TD><TD align=middle>Streak</TD><TD align=right>1 loss</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>def. Rory Singer
UFC 72
6/16/2007</TD><TD align=middle>Last Fight</TD><TD align=right>lost to Rich Franklin
UFC 72
6/16/2007 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD align=left colSpan=5>Expert Picks</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Denny Burkholder: MacDonald is good enough to be dangerous under the right circumstances. I don't think Okami will be careless enough to let those circumstances present themselves. Okami by decision.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Sam Caplan: MacDonald is at his best when he catches aggressive fighters making mistakes. Okami is too strong and too technical to give MacDonald a needed opening to capitalize on. Okami by ground and pound in Round 2.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Todd Martin: This is to me the easiest fight on the card to predict. Okami's power and technique will be too much for MacDonald, and he'll win via TKO or decision.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Ben Fowlkes: MacDonald surprised everyone when he beat Ed Herman, but like Okami he's been unable to get to that next level. This fight should tell us who is a contender and who is a gatekeeper. Okami's nearly impossible to finish, and he should be able to hold on for a decision victory here.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD align=middle colSpan=5>Middleweight Bout:</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD align=left rowSpan=9>

</TD><TD align=left>DEMIAN MAIA</TD><TD align=middle>vs.</TD><TD align=right>RYAN JENSEN</TD><TD align=right rowSpan=9>

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>n/a</TD><TD align=middle>Nickname</TD><TD align=right>n/a</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>29</TD><TD align=middle>Age</TD><TD align=right>30</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>6'0"</TD><TD align=middle>Height</TD><TD align=right>6'1"</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>5-0 (UFC debut)</TD><TD align=middle>Record</TD><TD align=right>11-2 (0-1 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=middle>KO/TKOs</TD><TD align=right>3 (0 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=middle>Submissions</TD><TD align=right>8 (0 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>5 wins</TD><TD align=middle>Streak</TD><TD align=right>1 loss</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>def. Ryan Stout
Gracie FC
5/19/2007</TD><TD align=middle>Last Fight</TD><TD align=right>lost to Thales Leites
UFC 74
8/25/2007</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD align=left colSpan=5>Expert Picks</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Denny Burkholder: This is Maia's UFC debut, but don't let that fool you. This man has great jiu jitsu and will be a difficult opponent for Jensen. I'm calling Maia by submission in Round 2. </TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Sam Caplan: Jensen got off to a fast start at UFC 74 but faded quickly vs. Thales Leites. Maia's standup is unproven but he's one of the best grapplers in the UFC. I see this fight ending in a similar fashion to Jensen vs. Leites with Maia getting the win.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Todd Martin: Maia is mostly an unknown commodity, so it's hard to know how the fight will go. Jensen has greater experience against solid competition so I give him the edge.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Ben Fowlkes: Maia is undefeated with a reputation as a submissions artist, but like Jensen he hasn't really been tested by top competition yet. Seeing how easily Thales Leites submitted Jensen his last time out, I have to think his ground game isn't quite ready for the type of jiu-jitsu technician Maia is rumored to be. I only wonder how the rumors will stand up to the Octagon jitters.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD align=middle colSpan=5>Welterweight Bout:</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD align=left rowSpan=9>

</TD><TD align=left>JOSH BURKMAN</TD><TD align=middle>vs.</TD><TD align=right>FORREST PETZ</TD><TD align=right rowSpan=9>

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>"The People's Warrior"</TD><TD align=middle>Nickname</TD><TD align=right>"The Meat Cleaver"</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>27</TD><TD align=middle>Age</TD><TD align=right>32</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>5'10"</TD><TD align=middle>Height</TD><TD align=right>5'10"</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>8-4 (4-2 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>Record</TD><TD align=right>13-4 (2-2 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>2 (1 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>KO/TKOs</TD><TD align=right>6 (0 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>3 (1 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>Submissions</TD><TD align=right>4 (0 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>1 loss</TD><TD align=middle>Streak</TD><TD align=right>1 win</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>lost to Karo Parisyan
UFC 71
5/26/2007</TD><TD align=middle>Last Fight</TD><TD align=right>def. Luigi Fioravanti
UFC Fight Night 10
6/12/2007</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD align=left colSpan=5>Expert Picks</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Denny Burkholder: Burkman's only two UFC losses were to Jon Fitch and Karo Parisyan. There is no shame in losing to either of those guys. Burkman is a very formidable fighter and he'll outwork Petz en route to a pretty fast win.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Sam Caplan: Petz is not a bad fighter but he's just not on Burkman's level. Burkman is a superior athlete with better wrestling and he'll dominate this fight if it goes to the ground.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Todd Martin: Burkman has rebounded well from losses throughout his career. He'll find a way to get by Petz.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Ben Fowlkes: Burkman looked like he was heading for big things before his loss to Parisyan. He's still got a lot of potential, but needs to use his athletic ability to go on the attack more. Petz will find himself in a submission if he can't damage Burkman early on.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD align=middle colSpan=5>Lightweight Bout:</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD align=left rowSpan=9>

</TD><TD align=left>MATT GRICE</TD><TD align=middle>vs.</TD><TD align=right>JASON BLACK</TD><TD align=right rowSpan=9>

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>"The Real One"</TD><TD align=middle>Nickname</TD><TD align=right>n/a</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>26</TD><TD align=middle>Age</TD><TD align=right>35</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>5'8"</TD><TD align=middle>Height</TD><TD align=right>5'8"</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>8-1 (0-1 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>Record</TD><TD align=right>21-3-1 (0-1 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>3 (0 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>KO/TKOs</TD><TD align=right>4 (0 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>3 (0 UFC)</TD><TD align=middle>Submissions</TD><TD align=right>11 (0 UFC)</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>1 loss</TD><TD align=middle>Streak</TD><TD align=right>1 loss</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=left>lost to Terry Etim
UFC 70
4/21/2007</TD><TD align=middle>Last Fight</TD><TD align=right>lost to Thiago Tavares
UFC Fight Night 10
6/12/2007</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD align=left colSpan=5>Expert Picks</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Denny Burkholder: It's fitting that this fight happens shortly before Halloween, because Jason Black closely resembles a Wolfman. Joking aside, I was highly impressed with Black's performance against Thiago Tavares in June. I see him earning his first UFC win here against Grice.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Sam Caplan: Grice has solid wrestling credentials but was rather unimpressive in losing his UFC debut to Terry Etim at UFC 70. Black has fought for Pride and trains with Pat Miletich and will prove to be too well-rounded and experienced for Grice.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Todd Martin: Black's a lot better than he looked against Thiago Tavares. He'll win this one.</TD><TD vAlign=top width="25%">

Ben Fowlkes: Black has a major edge in terms of experience and scary facial hair. This is essentially a match between two wrestlers turned MMA fighters, so it may come down to who can do more than one thing well, and that's Black. He should overwhelm Grice without too much trouble.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

mutosufan · Oct 18, 2007

My plays, though not yet made. I will let you know of the juice +/- when locked in.

Franklin - small
Sylvia - small
Gurgel - medium (hey, fought and won with a broken jaw last time!)
Bonnar - medium to large
Okami - x-large

mutosufan · Oct 19, 2007

Here is a very unique and intriguing look at picking the fights. I would like to see what data is considered and how it is weighted. Or is it just a bunch of guys throwing around mathematical terms to look impressive. Nonetheless................

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Introduction [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This is the debut for the Predicting MMA Team, their UFC 77 fight card analysis is based on over 100 online discussions, a survey of over 22,000 participants and a quantitative model taking into account hundreds of variables. Future articles will include more insight on their methodology and key concepts.

Their analysis looks to exploit value in money line betting through identifying underdogs. Below is a list of their picks for the UFC 77 fight card.[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT]
[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]mouseover to stop the scroll
<SCRIPT type=text/javascript>/************************************************ IFRAME Scroller script- © Dynamic Drive DHTML code library (www.dynamicdrive.com)* This notice MUST stay intact for legal use* Visit Dynamic Drive at http://www.dynamicdrive.com/ for full source code***********************************************///specify path to your external page:var iframesrc="bodogmmascoll.htm"//You may change most attributes of iframe tag below, such as width and height:document.write('<iframe id="datamain" src="'+iframesrc+'" width="475px" height="150px" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" hspace="0" vspace="0" frameborder="1" scrolling="no"></iframe>')</SCRIPT><IFRAME id=datamain marginWidth=0 marginHeight=0 src="bodogmmascoll.htm" frameBorder=1 width=475 scrolling=no height=150></IFRAME>[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Undercard[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Josh Burkman vs. Forest Petz[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quantative Model:
Probability of Winning Fight: 77% probability of Burkman winning versus 23% for Petz
Probability of Underdog Upset: 26% chance of Petz upsetting
Market Model:
All responses place the fight at 84% Burkman, 16% Petz
Our top 50 pickers over the past 6 events place the probability at 100% Burkman
Summary:
Burkman is a solid pick to win this fight, but the odds say stay away from this one.
[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Jorge Gurgel vs. Alvin Robinson[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quantative Model:
Probability of Winning Fight: 76% probability of Gurgel winning versus 24% for Robinson
Probability of Underdog Upset: 25% chance of Robinson upsetting
Market Model:
All responses place the fight at 61% Gurgel, 39% Robinson
Our top 50 pickers over the past 6 events place the probability at 74% Gurgel, 26% Robinson
Summary:
Gurgel factored with the Robinson losing streak comes into play here. W[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]e like Gurgel over Robinson, but [/FONT]not a great line and one to stay away from.
[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Jason Black vs. Matt Grice[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quantative Model:
Probability of Winning Fight: 20% probability of Grice winning versus 80% for Jason Black
Probability of Underdog Upset: 37% chance of Grice upsetting
Market Model:
All responses place the fight at 82% Black, 18% Grice
Our top 50 pickers over the past 6 events place the probability at 89% Black, 12% Grice
Summary:
Submission game is critical in this fight. We like Black, his last performance (after a vicious weight cut) was relatively solid until he burned all energy reserves. Black over Grice.
[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Yushin Okami vs. Jason MacDonald[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quantative Model:
Probability of Winning Fight: 66% probability of Okami winning versus 34% for MacDonald
Probability of Underdog Upset: 36% chance of MacDonald upsetting
Market Model:
All responses place the fight at 44% Okami, 56% MacDonald
Our top 50 pickers over the past 6 events place the probability at 52% Okami, 49% MacDonald
Summary:
Who will show up to fight? Striking, submission and wrestling are relatively evenly matched but the mental state will be pivotal to this fight. Look to the weigh-ins to confirm which fighter is on point.
Unclear at this point (will issue alert after weigh-ins)
[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Main Event[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Kalib Starnes vs. Alan Belcher[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quantative Model:
Probability of Winning Fight: 74% probability of Starnes winning versus 26% for Belcher
Probability of Underdog Upset: 16% chance of Shafer upsetting[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Market Model:
All responses place the fight at 64% Starnes, 46% Belcher
Our top 50 pickers over the past 6 events place the probability at 76% Starnes, 24% Belcher[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Summary:
UFC experience rules, take Starnes over Belcher.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stephan Bonnar vs. Eric Schafer[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quantative Model:
Probability of Winning Fight: 74% probability of Bonnar winning versus 26% for Schafer
Probability of Underdog Upset: 22% chance of Schafer upsetting[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Market Model:
All responses place the fight at 87% Bonnar, 13% Schafer
Our top 50 pickers over the past 6 events place the probability at 94% Bonnar, 6% Shafer[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Summary:
Schafer has natural talent but wasn’t cultivated the same way most professional fighters have been (not to say that means much.) Against the strong ground game of Bonnar, we don’t see much benefit in taking Schafer. Bonnar over Schafer[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Tim Sylvia vs. Brandon Vera[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quantative Model:
Probability of Winning Fight: 75% probability of Vera winning versus 25% for Sylvia
Probability of Underdog Upset: 49% chance of Sylvia upsetting[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Market Model:
All responses place the fight at 49% Sylvia, 51% Vera
Our top 50 pickers over the past 6 events place the probability at 35% Sylvia, 65% Vera[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Summary:
Solid line to bet, we like Sylvia over Vera. Striking of Silva is the main ingredient. Sylvia over Vera[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Rich Franklin vs. Anderson Silva[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quantative Model:
Probability of Winning Fight: 39% probability of Franklin winning versus 61% for Silva
Probability of Underdog Upset: 78% chance of Franklin upsetting[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Market Model:
All responses place the fight at 67% Franklin, 33% Silva
Our top 50 pickers over the past 6 events place the probability at 47% Franklin, 53% Silva[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Summary:
Ace is looking tough. Word is, his mental/physical state is peak going into this fight. Franklin over Silva[/FONT]

FloppyBoy · Oct 19, 2007

mutosufan said:
Here is a very unique and intriguing look at picking the fights. I would like to see what data is considered and how it is weighted. Or is it just a bunch of guys throwing around mathematical terms to look impressive. Nonetheless................

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Introduction [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This is the debut for the Predicting MMA Team, their UFC 77 fight card analysis is based on over 100 online discussions, a survey of over 22,000 participants and a quantitative model taking into account hundreds of variables. Future articles will include more insight on their methodology and key concepts.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Their analysis looks to exploit value in money line betting through identifying underdogs. Below is a list of their picks for the UFC 77 fight card.[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]

[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]mouseover to stop the scroll [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]<SCRIPT type=text/javascript>/************************************************ IFRAME Scroller script- © Dynamic Drive DHTML code library (www.dynamicdrive.com)* This notice MUST stay intact for legal use* Visit Dynamic Drive at http://www.dynamicdrive.com/ for full source code***********************************************///specify path to your external page:var iframesrc="bodogmmascoll.htm"//You may change most attributes of iframe tag below, such as width and height:document.write('<iframe id="datamain" src="'+iframesrc+'" width="475px" height="150px" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" hspace="0" vspace="0" frameborder="1" scrolling="no"></iframe>')</SCRIPT><IFRAME id=datamain marginWidth=0 marginHeight=0 src="bodogmmascoll.htm" frameBorder=1 width=475 scrolling=no height=150></IFRAME>[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Undercard[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Josh Burkman vs. Forest Petz[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quantative Model: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probability of Winning Fight: 77% probability of Burkman winning versus 23% for Petz[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probability of Underdog Upset: 26% chance of Petz upsetting[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Market Model:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]All responses place the fight at 84% Burkman, 16% Petz[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Our top 50 pickers over the past 6 events place the probability at 100% Burkman[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Summary:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Burkman is a solid pick to win this fight, but the odds say stay away from this one.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Jorge Gurgel vs. Alvin Robinson[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quantative Model: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probability of Winning Fight: 76% probability of Gurgel winning versus 24% for Robinson[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probability of Underdog Upset: 25% chance of Robinson upsetting[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Market Model:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]All responses place the fight at 61% Gurgel, 39% Robinson[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Our top 50 pickers over the past 6 events place the probability at 74% Gurgel, 26% Robinson[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Summary:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Gurgel factored with the Robinson losing streak comes into play here. W[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]e like Gurgel over Robinson, but [/FONT]not a great line and one to stay away from. [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Jason Black vs. Matt Grice[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quantative Model: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probability of Winning Fight: 20% probability of Grice winning versus 80% for Jason Black[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probability of Underdog Upset: 37% chance of Grice upsetting[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Market Model:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]All responses place the fight at 82% Black, 18% Grice[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Our top 50 pickers over the past 6 events place the probability at 89% Black, 12% Grice[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Summary:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Submission game is critical in this fight. We like Black, his last performance (after a vicious weight cut) was relatively solid until he burned all energy reserves. Black over Grice.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Yushin Okami vs. Jason MacDonald[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quantative Model: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probability of Winning Fight: 66% probability of Okami winning versus 34% for MacDonald[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probability of Underdog Upset: 36% chance of MacDonald upsetting[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Market Model:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]All responses place the fight at 44% Okami, 56% MacDonald[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Our top 50 pickers over the past 6 events place the probability at 52% Okami, 49% MacDonald[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Summary:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Who will show up to fight? Striking, submission and wrestling are relatively evenly matched but the mental state will be pivotal to this fight. Look to the weigh-ins to confirm which fighter is on point.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Unclear at this point (will issue alert after weigh-ins)[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Main Event[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Kalib Starnes vs. Alan Belcher[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quantative Model: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probability of Winning Fight: 74% probability of Starnes winning versus 26% for Belcher[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probability of Underdog Upset: 16% chance of Shafer upsetting[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Market Model:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]All responses place the fight at 64% Starnes, 46% Belcher[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Our top 50 pickers over the past 6 events place the probability at 76% Starnes, 24% Belcher[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Summary:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]UFC experience rules, take Starnes over Belcher.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stephan Bonnar vs. Eric Schafer[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quantative Model: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probability of Winning Fight: 74% probability of Bonnar winning versus 26% for Schafer[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probability of Underdog Upset: 22% chance of Schafer upsetting[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Market Model:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]All responses place the fight at 87% Bonnar, 13% Schafer[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Our top 50 pickers over the past 6 events place the probability at 94% Bonnar, 6% Shafer[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Summary:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Schafer has natural talent but wasn’t cultivated the same way most professional fighters have been (not to say that means much.) Against the strong ground game of Bonnar, we don’t see much benefit in taking Schafer. Bonnar over Schafer[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Tim Sylvia vs. Brandon Vera[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quantative Model: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probability of Winning Fight: 75% probability of Vera winning versus 25% for Sylvia[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probability of Underdog Upset: 49% chance of Sylvia upsetting[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Market Model:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]All responses place the fight at 49% Sylvia, 51% Vera[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Our top 50 pickers over the past 6 events place the probability at 35% Sylvia, 65% Vera[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Summary:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Solid line to bet, we like Sylvia over Vera. Striking of Silva is the main ingredient. Sylvia over Vera[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Rich Franklin vs. Anderson Silva[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quantative Model: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probability of Winning Fight: 39% probability of Franklin winning versus 61% for Silva[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probability of Underdog Upset: 78% chance of Franklin upsetting[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Market Model:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]All responses place the fight at 67% Franklin, 33% Silva[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Our top 50 pickers over the past 6 events place the probability at 47% Franklin, 53% Silva[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Summary:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Ace is looking tough. Word is, his mental/physical state is peak going into this fight. Franklin over Silva[/FONT]

Interesting..where did you find them (if you can/want to say)
Thank You!

mutosufan · Oct 20, 2007

Hey floppy,

I think it is fine to post the website here. It was posted one other time and it didnt get deleted. Mods if you want to move/delete that is fine and I will PM him.

http://zewkey.com/

abcs · Oct 20, 2007

Silva will destroy Franklin

Liquidnoose · Oct 20, 2007

Gurgel (-165)
Vera (-155)
Anderson Silva (-200)

all plays to win 5 units.

Should be some killer fights..let's hope for early KOs/Subs so we can get in more prelims!

Liquidnoose · Oct 20, 2007

adding jason MacDonald (+200) 3 units to win 6

mutosufan · Oct 20, 2007

Liquid I am on the other side of the MacDonald fight, but you did get a nice number on MacDonald. He is +170 at my book.

laffit · Oct 20, 2007

Here is a very unique and intriguing look at picking the fights. I would like to see what data is considered and how it is weighted. Or is it just a bunch of guys throwing around mathematical terms to look impressive. Nonetheless................

I can provide some insight to this article. These guys have been working/tweaking their model for about a year now and they are comfortable enough now to take it public. I do not know them personally, but they have contacted me several time in the past for data on archived MMA odds. I know that they have put in a lot of time and effort on it and it has picked a high percentage in the last year. but... if you just stuck to picking favorites you would be at 75%, the key is indentifying the correct underdogs (so you bet on them or avoid laying big odds against them.)

I am not a big believer in computer/mathematical models, but I am going to see how this plays out regardless of its success tonight. Unfortunately, they did not have enough time to get into detail about the methodology. They will get into the details of the data and how to interpret it for the next event.

My thoughts on their picks are this...
Sylvia is no big surprise, that fight might be a pickem by tonight. That is the one definite bet they are recommending.

Franklin/Silva- most people knew how they were betting that fight before it was announced.

Starnes, according to my interpretation of their data, seems like an easy winner and you can get him at -110. That's nice.

MacDonald and Okami they have as a tossup. Which is a surprise to me, but I took a much closer look at this fight because of what they said.

mogo · Oct 20, 2007

i think the only fight i'll be on tonight will be Stephan Bonnar -325

i'll just looking to win enough to pay for the fight. Bonnar seems like an easy choice and has yet to be seriously beaten/harmed in any fight he has had. he is definately one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC.

Dr.Wilde · Oct 20, 2007

Tim Silvia +168 5 units
Anderson Silva -196 5 units

Im considering hedging on the Tim Silvia fight but Im confident Anderson Silva will beat Franklyn. Silva's a faster, more accurate, and dynamic striker than Franklyn, which will make this fight difficult for Franklyn to take to the ground (if he wants to) because Franklyn normally takes opponents to the ground by over powering them with strikes. They'll stand they'll trade and Silva will dominate. Silva via second round TKO.

mutosufan · Oct 20, 2007

Rich Franklin vs. Anderson Silva

For the last dog I took, Forrest, I had a pretty extensive analysis of the fight that I based a pretty large wager on for a dog of that size. But for this fight, there really isnt any angle that I am leaning on that makes me feel as confident as the Forrest fight. Franklin has good striking. As good as Silva? Absolutly not. But Franklin can bang. The advantage that I give Franklin is on the ground. I really dont care about the BB in BJJ from the Nogeira brothers for Silva because I think Silva is just above average on the ground. The ground is a place that I think Franklin is very, very underrated in. Both GnP and subs. Like Wilde said, how will Franklin get him down? Franklin terrible wrestling to put it nicely. And I think he will get Silva down like Okami got Franklin down. Heel trip or the such. It is imperative that Franklin keeps circling the octagon. While doing this, this is where Franklin should be able to land some strikes and set up a safe entrance into a takedown. Franklin will want to take this late into the fight where he will have definitive advantag with his cardio and strength. I only see Silva winning via (T)KO in the 1st 2 rounds. I can see Franklin winning anything after round 3 on and via decision. If Silva doesnt/cant take Franklin out in the first 2 rounds, then Franklin has figured him out. That is going to be a long 10 minutes for Franklin to get out of.

Bet: Franklin...small

Tim Sylvia vs. Brandon Vera

I hate the "he has something to prove" angle, but be damn I am jumping on board with it. LOL Though both have been gone a good while from the cage, I think Sylvia has something to prove. This is the fight that the old aggressive Tim is back. The same Tim that we saw against Andre Arlovski. And imo Arlovskie is much beter than Vera. Vera is still a yar away. We should see a hungry Tim, especially with Randy gone. (I freaking hate Tim Sylvia!)

Bet: Sylvia....small

Yushin Okami vs. Jason MacDonald

MacDonald couldnt handle Franklin's size and I dont think that he will be able to handle Okami's size, though they are 2 different fighters. MacDonald has been talkinf some shit before this fight which isnt unusual (sp?). Except for the Franklin fight. I like MacDonald's skill on the ground, but I dont see him being able do any damage to Okami to loosen him up for a sub.

Bet: Okami Okami and Gurgel for a parly

mogo · Oct 20, 2007

not playing Bonnar now?

mutosufan · Oct 20, 2007

mogo said:
not playing Bonnar now?

No, though I think it is the easiest on the board. He is up -380 and cant be parlayed. Some fighters they let you parlay and others they dont. Cant figure it out other than the juice.

mutosufan · Oct 20, 2007

Headed out for the fights, but ran into these right before I am taking off. Thought you guys would be interested. I know it is late, but...........

Here are Randy Coutures picks:

http://www.thefightnetwork.com/news_detail.php?nid=5172
THE NATURAL PICKS: UFC 77

A regular segment on The Fight Network’s original TV series’ “Before The Bell” and “After The Bell,” Randy Couture has his “Natural Picks” for tonight’s UFC 77 “Hostile Territory” - live from the U.S. Bank Arena in Cincinnati, Ohio - locked in. From the set in South Africa where Couture’s shooting “The Scorpion King – Rise of the Akkadian,” here’s what the expert analyst is predicting:

UFC Middleweight Championship

Anderson Silva vs. Rich Franklin - SILVA

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Tim Sylvia vs. Brandon Vera - VERA

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Jorge Gurgel vs. Alvin Robinson – GURGEL

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Eric Schafer vs. Stephan Bonnar – BONNAR

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Alan Belcher vs. Kalib Starnes - BELCHER

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Jason MacDonald vs. Yushin Okami - MACDONALD

mutosufan · Oct 20, 2007

Good Luck everyone and enjoy!

Toronto_Mike · Oct 20, 2007

what time is this fight?

Dr.Wilde · Oct 21, 2007

Anderson Silva Destroys Franklyn again. No ones gonna want to fight Silva. Silvia by UD.2-0 + 13.4units for the night both my predictions were spot on Silvia UD and Silva 2 rd TKO.

Liquidnoose · Oct 21, 2007

I was 1-3...pretty entertaining card and Silva ust fucking dominated Franklin...anyone excited for UFC 78?? Evans vs Bisping....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

mutosufan · Oct 21, 2007

Especially with the MW division the way it is, there is not one going to take the belt away from Silva. Henderson is the only person that has a shot if he would drop down. His wrestling may be able to take Silva out, maybe!

30 more seconds and Vera was done. Looked like Sylvia was just too big, like a lot of people said. Definately has some skills, but he should have been more active. Should have utilized those low leg kicks from the beginning.

Gurgel got the beating of the night award. Thought Gurgel had a chance to lose, but not like that. Went from dominating the 1st round to being pummled the next two. He has very dominate position for about 3:300-4:00 minutes of the opening round and refused to throw any damage. He didnt even try to work the arm for a submission. I really dont know what he was trying to accomplish in side control.

Havent seen the Okami fight or even read any punch by punch accounts yet, But I would have been totally surprised to see MacDonald win. Okami better watch out because win or not, if he keeps fighting to decisions Dana will send him packing (it could have been an exciting fight, I dont know. But if it was like his fight against Franklin that is what I am talking about).

UFC 77: Hostile Territory

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