Performify’s Picks for UFC 75
Posted by Performify on September 7, 2007 at 10:54 pm ET
Performify back with my usual round of picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC 75 event. Before I get started, don’t forget to check out our
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Marcus Davis (-200) vs. Paul Taylor (+160)
This battle at welterweight features Marcus <STRIKE>“The Irish Hand Grenade”</STRIKE> <STRIKE>“The Celtic Warrior”</STRIKE> “The Irish Hand Grenade” Davis, who enters with an 12-3 MMA record, 4-1 in the UFC. Davis was a contestant on the second season of “The Ultimate Fighter†reality show and lost to Joe Stevenson in episode four. Davis made his professional UFC debut at the show’s finale, where he was defeated by Melvin Guillard. Davis since has racked up UFC wins over Forrest Petz, Shonie Carter, Pete Spratt and most recently an early KO victory over Jason Tan at UFC 72 in June. Davis is a former pro boxer with a record of 22-1-2 with 17 knockouts, and he has added a decent ground game to round out his MMA skills. Davis has trained with the Miletich camp in Davenport, Iowa, but now trains with Team Jorge Gurgel in Ohio.
His opponent, “Relentless” Paul Taylor, is an English fighter with an 8-1-1 MMA record. Taylor made his UFC debut at UFC 70, where he defeated the highly touted Brazilian Edilberto “Crocota” de Oliveira by knockout in the start of the third round. The 27-year-old is a former world champion kickboxer and was also the middleweight champion in the UK-based Cage Rage organization.
<IFRAME name=300x250 align=right marginWidth=0 marginHeight=0 src="http://www.activeathletevector.com/OAS/AA_300x250.cfm?pub=tas.ufcjunkie&refresh_rate=60&refresh=yes" frameBorder=0 width=300 scrolling=no height=250></IFRAME>I think this fight could be an interesting brawl between two solid strikers. Davis may be well suited to take this fight to the ground instead of relying on his boxing skills, where he should have a decent edge over the local fighter. However, Taylor has shown very good takedown defense in his previous fights. I can’t say how developed Taylor may or may not be on the ground. He is predominantly known as striker, but Taylor does have two victories by submission on his record, a guillotine choke and a kimura.
I think Taylor does have a good chance to take this fight, especially so if Davis wants to stand and trade and Taylor can keep his distance to utilize his kickboxing skills. However, at the current odds, Taylor would have to win this fight about 40 percent of the time to make him an OK bet. While there might have been a bit of value in the opening line, I think based on the market line right now, there’s really not enough value to risk it. I will predict Davis by TKO in the third round in what could be a great fight; however, I’m not confident enough to bet it at the current odds.
Gleison Tibau (-180) vs. Terry Etim (+150)
Tibau is a highly regarded Brazilian champion in both BJJ contests and in wrestling, and comes in with a 14-4 MMA record. Tibau made his UFC debut on the undercard of UFC 65 (GSP vs. Hughes), where he was knocked out by Nick Diaz in the second round, right before Diaz escaped to PRIDE. This is Tibau’s third fight since dropping to lightweight — he first dropped down to face Jason Dent at UFC 68 in March, where Tibau won a unanimous decision. His second fight at lightweight was an early submission victory over Jeff Cox at UFC Fight Night 10.
Etim is a local, fighting out of Liverpool, England. He is balanced with a background in Muay Thai and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and he sports a 10-0 MMA record, with nine wins by submission and one by TKO. This is Etim’s second fight in the UFC. He previously defeated Matt Grice by first-round submission at UFC 70.
Etim has a Corey Hill-like physique, at 6-foot-1 and only 155 pounds. This gives him a good reach advantage, and it can be advantageous using those lanky limbs working for submissions (ala Anderson Silva) but also can work to his disadvantage as it gives an opponent that much more to attack and more leverage to finish.
Usually it’s the edge in the striking on the feet that decides a fight between two good jiu-jitsu guys. Etim looked pretty impressive in his first UFC fight, hanging on to score the submission over Matt Grice. However, from what I know about his ground game, while he’s a skilled BJJ practitioner, he’s not on the level of the highly decorated Tibau. I think Tibau has enough of an edge both standing and on the ground — not to mention experience in the UFC — to take this home.
Thiago Silva (-330) vs. Tomasz Drwal (+260)
Thiago Silva represents the vaunted Brazilian Chute Boxe Academy. He has a perfect 10-0 MMA record and has finished eight of his nine fights by knockout or TKO. Silva was the Fury Fighting Championships Grand Prix Champion for the 93-kilogram (205-pound) and lighter division. His most impressive victory was over Tatsuya Mizuno (KO via soccer kick) in a February 2007 Pancrase event.
Silva is an obvious hard hitter who looks very comfortable on his feet. He has a solid sprawl, good footwork and exceptional balance while delivering kicks. And you know with the Chute Boxe Academy comes ground skills as well, as Silva holds a black belt in BJJ and holds wins in BJJ tournaments.
Silva made his UFC debut on the undercard of UFC 71, where he defeated James Irvin by TKO. Silva secured a takedown about a minute into the fight. Irvin tried to fight being taken down, and he suffered a severe knee injury in the process.
Tomasz Drwal is a Polish fighter with a 14-1 MMA record. However he has not faced anyone of note in his career. He’s predominantly known as a ground-and-pound fighter with decent power and strong slams.
Many people feel Drwal is a solid underdog bet here, and it’s hard to argue against. Silva has not been extensively tested. However he does have some big-stage experience with fights in Shooto, Pancrase and his abbreviated battle with Irvin at UFC 71. He also has the Chute Boxe camp behind him. My pick here is Thiago Silva by submission in the second round.
Naoyuki Kotani (-200) vs. Dennis Siver (+160)
<IFRAME name=300x250 align=right marginWidth=0 marginHeight=0 src="http://www.activeathletevector.com/OAS/AA_300x250.cfm?pub=tas.ufcjunkie&refresh_rate=60&refresh=yes" frameBorder=0 width=300 scrolling=no height=250></IFRAME>This lightweight battle features two fighters who have both made one unsuccessful trip to the UFC Octagon and are looking to get back on track. Naoyuki Kotani is 17-6-5 in MMA, primarily in the Japanese organization ZST. He made his UFC debut against Thiago Tavares at UFC Fight Night 9 back in April, where he lost a unanimous decision.
Dennis Siver is a German fighter with a 10-4 MMA record. He is 0-1 in the UFC after losing to Jess Liaudin at UFC 70 in April by a swift first-round armbar.
Thirteen of Kotani’s wins have come by way of submission. All four of Siver’s losses are likewise by way of submission. Look for Kotani to take the fight to the ground, even if he has to pull guard, and slap on a quick submission to end this fight. Kotani by submission in the first round.
Anthony Torres (-115) vs. Jess Liaudin (-115)
You might remember Anthony Torres as the Hawaiian fighter from the second season of “The Ultimate Fighter†reality show. Torres was a welterweight member of “Team Franklin” and suffered a unanimous-decision loss to Luke Cummo in the first round of the tournament format. Torres made his official UFC debut in August 2006 and picked up a first-round submission win over Pat Healy at UFC Fight Night 6. He was expected to face Roan Carneiro at UFC Fight Night 9 but was eventually scratched because of an injury. Torres is 5-0 in professional MMA.
Torres is a
replacement for Anthony “Rumble†Johnson, who had to withdraw due to a shoulder injury.
London’s Jess “Joker” Liaudin is 11-8 in MMA, primarily in the Cage Rage organization. Liaudin made his UFC debut at UFC 70, where he defeated the aforementioned Siver with a quick first-round armbar. Liaudin has been training for this fight in California under Team Quest alongside Dan Henderson.
Liaudin is a steal at this price, in my opinion. He’s being undervalued because of his 11-8 record and the fact that few people have seen him fight. He is on a four-fight win streak and hasn’t been beaten in two years. Look for Liaudin to control this fight start to finish, with superior striking, solid takedown defense, and good ground skills if the fight ever does go down. Liaudin by unanimous decision, though don’t rule out a TKO in the later rounds.
Quinton Jackson (-130) vs. Dan Henderson (+105)
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson sports a 27-6 MMA record and is 2-0 in the UFC after demolishing Chuck Liddell at UFC 71 and defeating Marvin “the Beastman” Eastman at UFC 67. Jackson is a counter-puncher with good wrestling, explosive strength, strong defense and a stronger chin. Jackson is known for dramatic slams, scooping up his opponents and sending them flying through the air before bringing them back to a brutal meeting with the mat.
Some Internet pundits frequently waxed negative on Jackson in the past — at least prior to the Liddell win — saying that he’d not shown the same level of aggression since becoming a born-again Christian or saying that Jackson had never looked the same since suffering two brutal knockout losses at the hands of Wanderlei Silva (in November 2003 and October 2004) and another brutal knockout at the hands of Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in April 2005. I very much disagree with both of these assertions.
As I’ve previously mentioned in a past writeup, I asked this exact question of Jackson in the conference call held for media around UFC 71. I asked him — and I told him so — for one reason and one reason only, to give him an opportunity to silence his critics. The answer I received that day was very much what I already believed: Jackson is in fact no longer the same fighter he was in 2003 and 2004. He is a better fighter. His training and discipline has improved notably since hooking up with Juanito Ibarra. According to Jackson, he’s also significantly improved his diet and his focus since then as well.
Jackson has been training for this fight up at Big Bear, Calif., and according to
this story by Yahoo! Sport’s Kevin Iole, he has been training with “nearly 20 professional fighters” in camp, including Michael Bisping and Cheick Kongo.
Dan Henderson, holder of the PRIDE welterweight (183-pound) and light heavyweight titles, steps in against “Rampage” holding a 22-5 MMA record. Henderson has notable wins over Wanderlei Silva, Murilo Bustamante, Renato Sobral and Renzo Gracie. His losses — with the exception of a questionable decision loss to Kazuo Misaki — have come at the hands of the 205-pound elite: Wanderlei Silva, Ricardo Arona, and Antonio Rogerio Nogueria twice.
Henderson earned the casual nickname “Decision Dan” in PRIDE, due to an impressive ability to grind out decision wins against some very tough competition. Henderson is used to longer format fights considering he fought in the 10-5-5 (a round of 10 minutes, then two rounds of five minutes) structure of PRIDE. However it will be interesting to see if the 5×5 structure of a UFC championship bout will impact him (if at all). He is 37 years old, but — much like Randy Couture — appears to be in fantastic shape for someone his age.
<IFRAME name=300x250 align=right marginWidth=0 marginHeight=0 src="http://www.activeathletevector.com/OAS/AA_300x250.cfm?pub=tas.ufcjunkie&refresh_rate=60&refresh=yes" frameBorder=0 width=300 scrolling=no height=250></IFRAME>I have this fight as a literal coinflip. I think Henderson does have the tools to take this fight to a gritty decision victory, and he definitely has enough thunder in his hands to win. Henderson’s proclivity to take a fight to decision might actually work against Jackson’s counter style — if Henderson does just enough to steal a round but doesn’t do much else, Jackson’s counter opportunities are limited and as such he’s taken a bit out of his game. However, as Jackson proved against Liddell, his counter skills
are second to none, and one small mistake by Henderson will likely have him kissing the canvas with “Rampage’ howling in triumph over him.
Watch the odds for this fight carefully. Personally I think this fight is not worth betting heavily as the fight is indeed a coinflip. If Henderson remains above even, I can justify a tiny play on him, but only for the most degenerate of fellow action junkies.
I just hope we see the elite-level war that the fight has the potential to be. If this fight delivers, being that it’s free on Spike, it has the potential to catapult the popularity of this sport the same way that the first Forrest Griffin vs. Stephan Bonner fight did.
Mirko “Cro Cop†Filipovic (-450) vs. Cheick Kongo (+300)
Mirko “Cro Cop†Filipovic had all but cemented a legacy as one of the most elite MMA fighters on the planet before Gabriel Gonzaga demolished him at UFC 70.
Cro Cop is best known as a devastating striker with perhaps the most devastating kicks in MMA. He’s famously quoted referring to his kicks: “Right leg: hospital. Left leg: morgue.” Cro Cop is a former Croatian Special Forces officer and former member of the Croatian Parliament. He has a 22-5-2 MMA record after getting dropped by Gonzaga. His losses have come to some of the best in the world: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at Pride Final Conflict 2003, an upset loss to Kevin Randleman at Pride Total Elimination 2004 (a loss he later avenged), a unanimous decision loss to Fedor Emelianenko at Pride Final Conflict 2005, and a split-decision loss to Mark Hunt at Pride’s New Year’s show in 2005.
Prior to Cro Cop’s aforementioned loss to Gonzaga and his win over Eddie Sanchez in his introduction to the Octagon at UFC 67, his previous seven fights were all been against top-tier or big-name competition: a decision loss to Emelianenko, a decision win over Josh Barnett (20-5 MMA, generally regarded as one of the top-five heavyweights in the world), a split-decision loss to Mark Hunt, and then in 2006, four first-round KO wins in a row: Ikuhisa “The Punk” Minowa, Judo standout Hidehiko Yoshida, Wanderlei Silva, and Barnett, the latter fight to win the Pride Open Weight Grand Prix in 2006.
Cheick Kongo makes his return to the UFC after last fighting at UFC 70 as well. Unlike Cro Cop, however, he walked away from the Octagon without assistance after his fight. At UFC 70 Kongo defeated Brazilian Assuerio Silva and won a rare majority decision (two judges seeing the fight for Kongo, the third calling it a draw). Kongo suffered a big upset loss in his prior outing, a split decision loss to Carmelo Marrero at UFC 64. There, Kongo spent most of the fight on the back and was exposed as a very one-dimensional fighter.
Kongo’s two prior entries to the UFC both were dominant first-round stoppages: a knockout of Christian Wellisch at UFC 62 and a doctor’s-stoppage TKO of Gilbert Aldana (RIP) at UFC 61.
Kongo is a dominant Muay Thai fighter with fantastic standup. So is Cro Cop. It will be exceedingly interesting to see how this fight plays out. If “the Croatian Sensation” is smart, he comes out and puts Kongo on his back and wins this fight easily with a kimura or with ground and pound. And if I were confident that Cro Cop would follow that game plan and simply do what it took to win, I think Kongo wouldn’t have a chance here. However, I think Cro Cop realizes his legacy is at risk, and we’re going to see him come out and try to prove a point. We could be in for an entertaining K1-style pure kickboxing match for much of the fight, which would definitely swing the odds back toward Kongo having more of a fair chance to pull the upset.
Kongo at +300 is being given a 25 percent chance to win this fight. I think that’s about right based on the information we have. If the fight hits the ground, I’d set a true line of Cro Cop -600. But if the fight stays standing, I think Kongo +300 looks like a decent bet.
I’m not comfortable laying -450 on Cro Cop without knowing how he’s going to react to his first fight back from getting nearly decapitated by Gonzaga. I think Cro Cop wins this fight by TKO late in the second round if the fight stays standing, or in the first round if it hits the ground, but I’m not comfortable betting on it.
Michael Bisping (-260) vs. Matt Hamill (+200)
Michael Bisping and Matt Hamill are both very well known from their collective stints on the third season of “The Ultimate Fighter.†Bisping sports a perfect 13-0 MMA record and is 3-0 in the UFC with wins over Elvis Sinosic, Eric Schafer and Josh Haynes. The latter win was to claim victory as the winner of “The Ultimate Fighter†season three.
Hamill – who was born deaf — sports a 3-0 MMA record (all in the UFC) and was an NCAA Division-III national champion wrestler.
Bisping has not looked that great in his last two performances, struggling early against both Schafer and Sinosic. However, Hamill has looked even worse in his Octagon performances, displaying fantastic wrestling ability but sloppy striking and minimal offense on the ground.
Hamill is a popular upset pick, but I just don’t see it happening. Yes, a superb wrestler always has the ability to play “human blanket” and utilize some elite-level “lay and pray” to scratch out a technical victory. At +200, Hamill has to pull out the lay-and-pray victory better than 33 percent of the time, and I just don’t think the value is there. Hamill showed a suspect chin on the show, and I’m pretty confident Bisping has something ready for him. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a targeted attack of well-timed knees (ala Hermes Franca vs. Sean Sherk). Unlike Sherk vs. Franca, however, I think the first such knee that lands is going to drop Hamill, and Bisping will quickly jump on top to finish. Bisping by TKO in the second round.
Houston Alexander (-170) vs. Alessio Sakara (+140)
You’ve seen extensive coverage of Houston Alexander through our previous interviews. Alexander trains under Mick Doyle, a former world champion kickboxer who runs an impressive Muay Thai and grappling gym in Omaha, Neb. Alexander is known for his punching power after dominating Keith Jardine at UFC 71, but few people realize he’s actually a decently well-rounded fighter with strong wrestling and superb conditioning. Alexander is officially 7-1 in MMA, 1-0 in the UFC.
Alessio Sakara is an Italian fighter training out of Brazil under Roberto Almeida Meneguetti. He is 11-5 in MMA and 2-2 in the UFC. Sakara’s two UFC wins are a unanimous-decision victory over Elvis Sinosic at UFC 57 and a first-round TKO of Victor Valimaki at UFC 70. Sakara has losses to Dean Lister on the undercard of UFC 60 (Hughes vs. Gracie) and lost by TKO to Drew McFedries at UFC 65. Sakara also fought at UFC 55 but was awarded a “no contest” after being kicked in the groin by his opponent Ron Faircloth.
<IFRAME name=300x250 align=right marginWidth=0 marginHeight=0 src="http://www.activeathletevector.com/OAS/AA_300x250.cfm?pub=tas.ufcjunkie&refresh_rate=60&refresh=yes" frameBorder=0 width=300 scrolling=no height=250></IFRAME>Sakara has a strong background in boxing, where he has amassed a 6-2 professional record and recently fought for — and lost — the IBF junior world championship.
Alexander has been well prepared by his coaches and will not likely look to stand and trade punches and kicks with Sakara from distance. Look for Alexander to close ground, using his power and athleticism to take this fight to the clinch against the cage, and if necessary, to the ground.
I expect Alexander to work his Muay Thai background and work dirty boxing, knees and elbows inside, before slamming Sakara to the mat and finishing the Italian with a combination of punches and elbows. Sakara has a chance here, obviously — anyone with his punching power and boxing background can end a fight. However, Sakara has shown highly suspect conditioning in his career, whereas Alexander is phenomenally conditioned. If Sakara can’t catch Alexander and drop him early, he’s going to find himself on the other end of a pretty serious beating.
Alexander by TKO early in the second round.
* * * *
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UFCjunkie.com (www.ufcjunkie.com) recently had an opportunity to catch up with promising UFC newcomer Houston Alexander (7-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC), who will face UFC veteran Alessio Sakara (11-5 MMA, 2-2 UFC) this Saturday at UFC 75.
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