UFC 303: PEREIRA VS PROCHAZKA 2

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Solid PPV in Vegas tonight. This is a much better card than the original Conor-card was, although the masses just tend to gravitate to Conor,,,he has that gift. It is a shame we get the main on short notice, with Poatan still recovering from a broken toe or two. Ironically the same injury that Conor backed out over.
Alex reaction to Conor backing out.
Alex is just a gangster and a bad motherfucker! Also, a bitch move from T-City to wait until the middle of the night (4am) before weigh-ins and say he can't make 145 after Lopes went through 90% of cut and was on point for 45, That definitely will give Ortega an edge as he wasn't as depleted. I'm hoping Diego finishes his old overrated ass anyway. He's had some bad beat and never really the same since Max fucked him up for 5 rounds.

Alex-Pereira-def.-Jamahal-Hill-UFC-300-422.jpg


UFC 303: PEREIRA VS PROCHAZKA 2​

@ T-MOBILE ARENA - LAS VEGAS, NV​


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UFC 303: PEREIRA VS PROCHAZKA 2​


Early Prelims:​

  • 4/1.63 Ricky Simon -245
  • 3/3.06 SIMON vs OLIVEIRA o2½ +102
  • 3/2.38 Rei Tsuruya by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission -126
  • 2/3.30 Hernandez/Tsuruya u1½ +165
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  • The first fight looks good on paper with both fighter having similar record. Simon (20-5) is much more experienced at this level with this his 13th fight in the UFC. Heck, this guy finished Merab in 2018. He should be able to control the action with his speed and wrestling, thereby nullifying the power of Oliveira (20-3). Probably gets drawn out into an over as Simon will have to avoid all-out brawl.
  • Next up top Flyweight prospect from Japan Rei Tsuruya (9-0) should be able to dominate this fight on the ground and likely get early finish. Hernandez (9-3) is a strong, tough 125 pounder and will be an excellent way for Rei to show his progression. Odds are crazy high for a reason, but I'll stick with ITD.
  • Arlovski (34-23) still fighting today, just over 10 years since he debuted in the UFC on 6/14/14 vs Brendan Schaub. I remember well when he finished Bigfoot shortly after that debut to win the title so many years ago. This is said to be his last fight tonight and even around +200 I think he has enough cardio and slickness to out-strike mostly with volume Martin Buday (13-2). Let's back the original "Pit Bull" and the over.
  • "The Karate Hottie" vs "The Savage" is actually a chick fight I believe we will enjoy. Even though Michelle and lost 6 of last 7 and they both total 20 losses between them. It'll be the classic striker vs grappler fight. The "Hottie's" striking isn't what it once was though, as time has taken her best weapon-speed. Gillian is much younger and on a bit of a streak at 4-2 with 4 finishes over the last 3 years. Still, this is her 17th time in the octagon, so she's been around a while. I do like Red to win and probably secure a finish, but it should be a fun watch.
Best faceoff ever with Karate Hottie back in the day.
https://www.tiktok.com/video/7384950444885282079
 

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UFC 303: PEREIRA VS PROCHAZKA 2​

Early Prelims:​

❌4/1.63 Ricky Simon -245
✅3/3.06 SIMON vs OLIVEIRA o2½ +102
❌3/2.38 Rei Tsuruya by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission -126
❌2/3.30 Hernandez/Tsuruya u1½ +165
❌2/4.90 Andrei Arlovski +245
✅3/1.91 Arlovski/Buday o2½ -157
[2-4 -6.03u]

3/1.76 Gillian Robertson -170
1.50/3 Robertson wins inside distance +200

ESPN Prelims:​

  • 2/5.00 Payton Talbott to Win Fight in Round 1 +250
  • 3.38/2 Talbott/Ghemmouri u2½ -169
  • 3.90/3 Charles Jourdain -130
  • 3/1.88 JOURDAIN vs SILVA o2½ -160
  • 2/3.90 Cub Swanson +195
  • 3/1.07 Joe Pyfer -280
  • 1/1.15 Pyfer wins inside distance +115
  • 1/5.37 Joseph Pyfer by Submission
  • 3/2.33 Barriault/Pyfer u2½ -129
Well, that was a shitty start, but it's not over yet.
  • Silva (12-2) and Jourdain (15-7) should be closely matched, at least that's what the odds say. Both guys like to stand-and-bang with Silva chasing big power shot(s) and Jourdain more versatile with varying strikes. Charles' experience should pay dividends here.
  • Another fight showcases 2 longtime UFC warriors, with Cub Swanson (29-13) facing Andre Fili (23-11). Would lean with Fili on youth, length and speed...but at these odds I'll take a chance with "Killer" on grit and toughness alone as he's one of the last of a breed and longest tenured fighter on the card with UFC debut 11/12/11.
  • Joe Pyfer (12-3) vs Marc-Andre Barriault (16-7) will be a banger at MW. Pyfer looks to bounce back after his first UFC loss last time out. Barriault is as tough as they come and won't go away, even if Pyfer is able to land the more telling shots. This could go the distance unless Joe gets a takedown and turns it into a submission, as I don't believe he can finish "Power Bar" on the feet.
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Inspekdah said:
What book do you use for inside distance?
Click to expand...
On DK it's under Winning Method then Method of Victory Doublechance, then select the fighter to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission

Same bet, usually around the same odds
 
It's the same at most US books, only seen one that actually says inside the distance, can't remember which one
 
Some books only offer ITD or KO or SUB but not all but some have all options like heritage

See the first highlighted area, that would be same as ITD

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They need to show a tug a row stat to see who has walked which direction for the length of the fight.

Some guys would literally be a mile running backwards
 
Trash decision for a guy who just literally back pedaled and never did anything in the clinch. Fili is a loser.
 

UFC 303: PEREIRA VS PROCHAZKA 2​

Early Prelims:​

❌4/1.63 Ricky Simon -245
✅3/3.06 SIMON vs OLIVEIRA o2½ +102
❌3/2.38 Rei Tsuruya by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission -126
❌2/3.30 Hernandez/Tsuruya u1½ +165
❌2/4.90 Andrei Arlovski +245
✅3/1.91 Arlovski/Buday o2½ -157
3/1.76 Gillian Robertson -170
❌1.50/3 Robertson wins inside distance +200

ESPN Prelims:​

✅2/5.00 Payton Talbott to Win Fight in Round 1 +250
✅3.38/2 Talbott/Ghemmouri u2½ -169
❌3.90/3 Charles Jourdain -130
❌3/1.88 JOURDAIN vs SILVA o2½ -160
❌2/3.90 Cub Swanson +195
✅3/1.07 Joe Pyfer -280
✅1/1.15 Pyfer wins inside distance +115
❌1/5.37 Joseph Pyfer by Submission
✅3/2.33 Barriault/Pyfer u2½ -129
[8-9 -8.45u]
​
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​

Main Card:​

  • 3/4.71 MICHAEL PAGE +157
  • 3/2.88 MACY CHIASSON -104
  • 4/2.96 Roman Dolidze -135

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  • I believe Page can give Garry problems with his goofy style and length. Garry may get frustrated and make a mistake. Also I don't like Garry one bit. lol
  • Chiasson is huge for 135 and very technical and well-rounded.
  • I love Smith, but it's a young man's game and I believe Dolidze is a stud and better than Smith almost everywhere at this point.
 
The sport needs to absolutely not only discourage the boring ground game but if you do nothing with it you should lose points
 
20 second KO by Talbott has by far been the fight of the night and the other guy didn't throw a punch
 
UFC 303: PEREIRA VS PROCHAZKA 2

Early Prelims:
❌4/1.63 Ricky Simon -245
✅3/3.06 SIMON vs OLIVEIRA o2½ +102
❌3/2.38 Rei Tsuruya by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission -126
❌2/3.30 Hernandez/Tsuruya u1½ +165
❌2/4.90 Andrei Arlovski +245
✅3/1.91 Arlovski/Buday o2½ -157
3/1.76 Gillian Robertson -170
❌1.50/3 Robertson wins inside distance +200

ESPN Prelims:
✅2/5.00 Payton Talbott to Win Fight in Round 1 +250
✅3.38/2 Talbott/Ghemmouri u2½ -169
❌3.90/3 Charles Jourdain -130
❌3/1.88 JOURDAIN vs SILVA o2½ -160
❌2/3.90 Cub Swanson +195
✅3/1.07 Joe Pyfer -280
✅1/1.15 Pyfer wins inside distance +115
❌1/5.37 Joseph Pyfer by Submission
✅3/2.33 Barriault/Pyfer u2½ -129
[8-9 -8.45u]

Main Card:
❌3/4.71 MICHAEL PAGE +157
✅3/2.88 MACY CHIASSON -104
[9-10 -8.57u]
4/2.96 Roman Dolidze -135

Co Main Event​

  • 3/4.20 Lopes wins inside distance +140

Short notices everywhere, but none shorter than Ige about 4 hours

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303 Bonuses.

6 bonuses were given for 50K each
Pereira
Chiasson
Pyfer
Talbott
Fili/Swanson both bonus'd with fight of the night

Also thanks to "Poataan" I logged another winning night. Also it was a little better than shown as I made math error during fights when calculating the running total.

UFC 303: PEREIRA VS PROCHAZKA 2​


Early Prelims:
❌4/1.63 Ricky Simon -245
✅3/3.06 SIMON vs OLIVEIRA o2½ +102
❌3/2.38 Rei Tsuruya by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission -126
❌2/3.30 Hernandez/Tsuruya u1½ +165
❌2/4.90 Andrei Arlovski +245
✅3/1.91 Arlovski/Buday o2½ -157
✅3/1.76 Gillian Robertson -170
❌1.50/3 Robertson wins inside distance +200

ESPN Prelims:
✅2/5.00 Payton Talbott to Win Fight in Round 1 +250
✅3.38/2 Talbott/Ghemmouri u2½ -169
❌3.90/3 Charles Jourdain -130
❌3/1.88 JOURDAIN vs SILVA o2½ -160
❌2/3.90 Cub Swanson +195
✅3/1.07 Joe Pyfer -280
✅1/1.15 Pyfer wins inside distance +115
❌1/5.37 Joseph Pyfer by Submission
✅3/2.33 Barriault/Pyfer u2½ -129
[8-9 -8.45u]

Main Card:
❌3/4.71 MICHAEL PAGE +157
✅3/2.88 MACY CHIASSON -104
✅4/2.96 Roman Dolidze -135
❌3/4.20 Lopes wins inside distance +140
✅8/8.40 Pereira wins inside distance +105

[11-11 +4.12u]

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