UFC 299 – Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera 2

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
This is one of the most stacked cards in several years and IMHO detestably better than 300. Any way you slice it, we're in for an evening of great entertainment.

UFC 299 – Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera 2​

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I've had a great start to the year and just hoping to keep it going.

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UFC 299 – Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera 2​

Early Prelims:
  • 2/3.90 JOANNE WOOD +195
  • 5.10/2 WOOD/MOROZ o2½ -255
  • 2/3.50 ASSU ALMABAEV BY 3 RD DECISION +175
  • 3/1.71 ROBELIS DESPAIGNE IN ROUND 1 -175
  • 5/1.65 DESPAIGNE/PARISIAN u1½ -303
  • 3/3.66 PHILIPE LINS +122
  • 2/1.46 LINS/CUTELABA u1½ -137
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  • Wood vs Moroz: Wood can go strike for strike and at nearly +200 she seems the easy pick/value wise. Wood Decision but the Over is the stronger play here.
  • Vergara vs Almabaev: A fun scrap, but other than the ladies this will likely prove one of the weaker bouts tonight. Assu should be able to impress the judges enough if he’s able to keep the fight standing. Almabaev Decision
  • Despaigne vs Parisian: On paper, Parisian is the far more technical MMA fighter who has more tools to get it done but Despaigne has that X-factor which is his insane intangibles and power. So long as he doesn’t get taken down early, he’s gonna smash this dude. Despaigne early KO / Under
  • Lins vs Cutelaba: Both fighter have similar style and neither likes fighting off their back(who does). Ian has more one punch KO power but Lins has looked far more disciplined and technical after losing his first 2 UFC fights, he has won 3 straights in less than 2 years while looking better each time out. “The Hulk” has remained about the same and lost 3 of last 4…getting finished in each. Lins ITD / Under
  • Pereira vs Oleksiejczuk: Has making for an excellent fight to close the early prelims. Both fighter off impressive KO wins. Oleksiejczuk like to move forward and has good hands. Pereira on the other hand has a crazy wild striking game, although he has wisely toned it down a bit. He will be far more athletic and shown not to gas in his last few fights after suffering that problem early on in the UFC, He has now won 6 straight in the UFC and probably a win or 2 from being ranked. I see more upside for the "Demolidor" and think he lands something big and gets a finish on the ground. Pereira ITD / Under
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No shame for Francis after getting KTFO, he did pocket nearly 20M allegedly.
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Notes:
Omalley net worth aprox 3M
Vera net worth aprox 4M :cool:
Co-main may be in jeopardy with Saint-Denis dealing with staph infection on his forehead. :fondy:

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UFC 299 – Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera 2

Early Prelims:

✅2/3.90 JOANNE WOOD +195
✅5.10/2 WOOD/MOROZ o2½ -255
✅2/3.50 ASSU ALMABAEV BY 3 RD DECISION +175
✅3/1.71 ROBELIS DESPAIGNE IN ROUND 1 -175
✅5/1.65 DESPAIGNE/PARISIAN u1½ -303

[5-0 +12.76u)


pending
3/3.66 PHILIPE LINS +122
2/1.46 LINS/CUTELABA u1½ -137
4/2,86 Michel Pereira -140
1.21/2 Oleksiejczuk/Pereira u1½ +165
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UFC 299 – Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera 2

Early Prelims:

✅2/3.90 JOANNE WOOD +195
✅5.10/2 WOOD/MOROZ o2½ -255
✅2/3.50 ASSU ALMABAEV BY 3 RD DECISION +175
✅3/1.71 ROBELIS DESPAIGNE IN ROUND 1 -175
✅5/1.65 DESPAIGNE/PARISIAN u1½ -303
✅4/2,86 Michel Pereira -140
✅1.21/2 Oleksiejczuk/Pereira u1½ +165
[7-0 +17.62u]


Pending
3/3.66 PHILIPE LINS +122
2/1.46 LINS/CUTELABA u1½ -137

ESPN Prelims:
(Only betting 2 fights on ESPN prelims)
  • 2.10/1 Kyler Phillips -210​

  • 3/2.04 KYLER PHILLIPS BY 3 RD DECISION -148​

  • 4/3.28 JAILTON ALMEIDA -122​

  • 2/2.90 BLAYDES/ALMEIDA u1½ +145​

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  • Munhoz(20-8) vs Phillips (11-2): The younger more athletic Phillips really looked dialed in last time out in a dominant 3 round decision over Raomi Barcellos. He’s now 5-1 in the UFC and seems ready to break into the rankings. Phillips Decision
  • Gamrot(23-2) vs dos Anjos(32-15): Two great LWs, but Gamrot is in his prime while dos Anjos is nearing the end of his run. He’s still solid but I don’t think he has enough left to win vs the divisions elite. Gamrot and Over(Cant bet this due to fucked odds)
  • Cerminara (18-5) vs Barber (13-2): Very close fight, should go the distance. Even though Barber has shown improvement lately, I do think she gets out worked in a probable decision. Cerminara
  • Blaydes (17-4)vs Almeida(20-2): A great HW fight I am very much looking looking to, with the winner breaking into the top potential title challengers. Blaydes should try and showcase his striking abilities against "Malhadinho" who's primarily a grappler. This will be Jailton’s toughest test to date, just solely based on the fact that Blaydes is the best wrestler he's faced. Actually I would say both fighters are facing the best grappler they have faced…ever! I'll side with Almeida being the better pure grappler of the two and when he gets a take-down he quickly transitions to the back and sinks in the RNC for his 13th submission. Almeida submission and under
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UFC 299 – Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera 2

Early Prelims:

✅2/3.90 JOANNE WOOD +195
✅5.10/2 WOOD/MOROZ o2½ -255
✅2/3.50 ASSU ALMABAEV BY 3 RD DECISION +175
✅3/1.71 ROBELIS DESPAIGNE IN ROUND 1 -175
✅5/1.65 DESPAIGNE/PARISIAN u1½ -303
✅4/2,86 Michel Pereira -140
✅1.21/2 Oleksiejczuk/Pereira u1½ +165

✅3/3.66 PHILIPE LINS +122
❌2/1.46 LINS/CUTELABA u1½ -137

ESPN Prelims:

✅2.10/1 Kyler Phillips -210
✅3/2.04 KYLER PHILLIPS BY 3 RD DECISION -148

[10-1 +22.32u]​

Pending​

4/3.28 JAILTON ALMEIDA -122
2/2.90 BLAYDES/ALMEIDA u1½ +145

Main Card:

  • 3.00/2 PETR YAN -150
  • 3/1.27 YAN/SONG o2½ -257
  • 2.07/3 Gilbert Burns +145
  • 3/2.31 Kevin Holland -130
  • 3.26/2 HOLLAND/PAGE o2½ -163

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Petr Yan (16-5) vs Yadong Song (21-7-1)​

Three straight losses for Yan leave hime close to an unforeseen exit from the UFC. Almost 4 years after winnng the vacant UFC bantamweight title with a 5-round beatdown over Jose his hype train has stopped dead in its tracks. However “No Mercy” has been tested by most every top contender and will welcome the standup kick boxing affair Song will bring. He throws more and lands at a higher rate, is the more technical striker and should easily carry the cards so long as avaoids Songs huge power. Song showed his lack of endurance vs Sandhagen and although I’m sure he will be improved, I don’t think he will be able to finish strong. Song is a capable wrestler and may look to mix in some which would likely be to his benifitt. I see more like the long grueling string affair where both warriors are wearing it by the end with Yan just scoring more. Yan decision and Over.

Gilbert Burns (22-6) vs Jack Della Maddalena (16-2)

Burns may be only 3-3 in his last 6 but the losses were to Usman, Chimaev and Belal, dude can still crack, although he should avoid Maddalena’s ferocious pocket punching when possible. Instead, he may be able to exploit Maddalena’s limitations off his back. The Aussie struggled against promotional newcomer, Bassil Hafez, who launched 20 takedowns in 3-rounds. Maddalena does have exceptional TDD though, so Gilbert will need to adamantly attack the takedowns. Maybe a tough ask, but I’ll back “Durinho” at plus odds. No doubt it’ll be a battle.

Kevin Holland (25-10) vs. Michael Page (21-2)​

Holland is one of the scrappiest fighters and will look to make this debut as ugly as possible for Page. He needs to use or at least threaten his grappling along with awkward looks while switching up the pace and keeping Page off guard! Page is a vet who has been in this spot before and he won’t be awed by the bright lights that come with the UFC. I expect him to be on his game and looking to put an exclamation point on his debut. This fight likely plays out very closely, ultimately coming down to who manages the distance better. Both guys do their best work from range, but Holland has an edge with his grappling if he can get this fight down. I’m gonna back Holland to get the win and silence some of the hype. MVP is already 36 and Kevin knows what to expect, so if he can fight patiently and secure a few takedowns, he should come out with the decision win. Taking Holland and the over

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Main Card:

✅3.00/2 PETR YAN -150
✅3/1.27 YAN/SONG o2½ -257
❌2.07/3 Gilbert Burns +145

Pending​

3/2.31 Kevin Holland -130
3.26/2 HOLLAND/PAGE o2½ -163

[12-3 +23.42u]​


Top of the card:​

  • 2.44/5 Dustin Poirier +205
  • 3/6.90 Marlon Vera +230

Dustin Poirier (29-8) vs Benoit Saint Denis (13-1)

This may be your fight of the night. Poirier is coming off his first KO loss since much earlier in his career. Who knows if that knockout will be lingering in the back of his mind and affects the way he fights. Saint-Denis has a style that could make this a very ugly fight for Poirier. He thrives in chaos but controlled chaos and does it in a way that breaks down his opponents until they can't deal with it anymore. Maybe, Porier will retreat early as Benoit Saint-Denis pushes pace looking to get him out of there, but don’t bank on it. I expect the “Diamond” to hold his ground and dish it out as much as he takes. Maybe the wars have added up on him, but I can’t resist Poirier at nearly +200.


Sean O’Malley (17-1) vs Marlon Vera (23-8-1)


This shapes up to be an exciting rematch. O'Malley will have a chance to avenge his only loss vs Chito Vera in tonight’s main event. We should get the best version on Sugga as he looks to land pinpoint sniper shots early and often. His hand speed is unparalleled at 135 and if Chito relaxes just a bit, he could eat several clean shots in a blink. This fight is huge for Chito as his whole country of Ecuador is behind him. He should be up to the challenge wuth crazy durability, plenty of confidence and the power to finish any fight with hands or feet. He throws everything with cruel intentions and has something to prove vs Sean, who has never admitted defeat in the first bout. Chito has a better ground game and some rarely used sub skills. Sean is a big favorite for reason as all his fans will be pounding their boy. Honestly I believe it can go either way but I have to ride Chito at these odds. In 32 pro fights, he’s never been finished, has 18 finishes including 10 subs. Sean has proved susceptible to leg kicks and so long as Chito doesn’t start too slow and outputs a decent volume I think there’s a good chance he can win a decision. but I wouldn’t rule out a sneak Chito sub.

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My good fortune continues...

UFC 299 – Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera 2​


Early Prelims:
✅2/3.90 JOANNE WOOD +195​
✅5.10/2 WOOD/MOROZ o2½ -255​
✅2/3.50 ASSU ALMABAEV BY 3 RD DECISION +175​
✅3/1.71 ROBELIS DESPAIGNE IN ROUND 1 -175​
✅5/1.65 DESPAIGNE/PARISIAN u1½ -303​
✅4/2,86 Michel Pereira -140​
✅1.21/2 Oleksiejczuk/Pereira u1½ +165​
✅3/3.66 PHILIPE LINS +122​
❌2/1.46 LINS/CUTELABA u1½ -137​
ESPN Prelims:
✅2.10/1 Kyler Phillips -210​
✅3/2.04 KYLER PHILLIPS BY 3 RD DECISION -148​
❌4/3.28 JAILTON ALMEIDA -122​
✅2/2.90 BLAYDES/ALMEIDA u1½ +145​
Main Card:
✅3.00/2 PETR YAN -150​
✅3/1.27 YAN/SONG o2½ -257​
❌2.07/3 Gilbert Burns +145​
✅3/2.31 Kevin Holland -130​
❌3.26/2 HOLLAND/PAGE o2½ -163​
✅2.44/5 Dustin Poirier +205​
❌3/6.90 Marlon Vera +230​
[15-5 +23.47u] :breakdance:


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UFC 299 Fight Bonues

Fight Of The Night: Dustin Poirier vs Benoît Saint Denis​

Fans had this fight circled on their calendar from the moment it was announced and for good reason. Benoît Saint Denis entered the fight on a five-fight win streak and started the first frame of strong, pressuring Poirier and utilizing his wrestling and power throughout.

Poirier almost got to show his jiu-jitsu skills once again as he went for multiple guillotine attempts.But heading into the second round, “The Diamond” started to find success on the feet, as he dropped Saint Denis and followed up with a few punches on the canvas, forcing the referee to come in and stop the fight.

It was a high risk, high reward for Poirier who sits currently No. 3 in the lightweight division, compared to Saint Denis’ No. 12, but the “The Diamond” got back in the win column in a massive way inside the Kaseya Center.

Performance Of The Night Bonuses​

Performance Of The Night: Sean O'Malley​

It truly was the “Suga” show in the 305.

Bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley defended his title in style, besting Marlon “Chito” Vera over the course of five rounds. O’Malley landed strikes from all angles for 25-minutes, with a second-round knee up the middle standing out as the hardest strike of the fight. Vera never gave up, pressing through the damage and through O’Malley wide variety of attacks.

This was the type of performance that fight fans needed to see from O’Malley who was in control from start to finish, but also showed how the champ would deal with someone as tough and resilient as Vera. The “Suga” era is just getting started.

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Performance Of The Night: Jack Della Maddalena​

Jack Della Maddalena with another finish for the highlight reel.

It was a back and forth battle between Della Maddalena and Gilbert Burns, with the Brazilian up on the scorecards heading into the second round. In the third round, the Australian escaped from a grappling exchange and as the two stood up he threw a knee that severely hurt Burns, sending him back toward the canvas. He followed up with several elbows with just over a minute left in the fight to get the job done.

This is a big win for Della Maddalena who looks to continue his rise in the welterweight division.

Performance Of The Night: Curtis Blaydes​

The heavyweight clash between Curtis Blaydes and Jailton Almeida was the ultimate test to see which top 10 heavyweight had the better grappling – and in the first round it was all Almeida.

And when Almeida went back to the well at the beginning of the first round Blaydes made him pay for it. Blaydes landed a short uppercut on Almeida’s entry and then followed up with a series of furious hammerfists which planted Almeida to the canvas and put a sudden end to the bout.

It was an important bounce-back win for Blaydes, who proved once again that he’s one of the best heavyweights in the world for a reason.

Performance Of The Night: Michel Pereira​

Michel Pereira continues to shine at middleweight, as he extended his win streak to seven in a row with his performance at UFC 299.

Before we talk about Pereira's win, we have to discuss the walk out. It was a coordinated effort that saw Pereira bust a move before he delivered one of his best performances to date. Pereira hit the body of Michal Oleksiejczuk, forcing him to retreat, and that's when Pereira put his foot on the gas and went after Oleksiejczuk's neck. Pereira wrapped up the rear naked choke submission in 61 seconds.

Big things are on the horizon for Pereira, but "Demolidor" wants to fight in Brazil his next time out - maybe at UFC 301 in Rio de Janeiro.

Performance Of The Night: Robelis Despaigne​

What a debut for Robelis Despaigne.

The heavyweight newcomer had a reputation for finishing his fights quickly and he lived up to that reputation against Josh Parisian. Wildly swinging and retreating after a slip, "The Big Boy" caught Parisian with a strike that put him to floor. He added a follow up strike before the ref stepped in to stop the fight. 19 seconds.

The performance instantly makes Robelis must see TV in the heavyweight division.



Attendance: 19,165 (Sold Out)

Gross Total Revenue: $14,142,904 (Announced Live Gate)

**4th highest grossing UFC event of all-time
 
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