UFC 281
- Thread starter mrpickem
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mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 281: Early Prelims:
CARLOS ULBERG(6-1) VS NICOLAE NEGUMEREANU(13-1) ! LHW (205)- Negumereanu ...Nicu has won 4 straight, which is surprising as fuck to me. Ulberg may struggle to hurt Negumereanu because his chin is simply unbreakable. The fight will bt determine if Ulberg can maintain his gas tank for 15 minutes while working off the back foot. You must also consider that Ulberg cracks hard, but so did Kennedy Nzechukwu and Ihor Potieria..I'm starting to believe the Nicu hype train.
- Arce Decision ...Couple of years back, maybe this would have been the perfect test for a growing Montel Jackson. It just feels like Montel has not been able to piece together his sum of parts, esp since the loss to Brett Johns. Arce is difficult to hold down, even considering Jackson’s past success against Felipe Colares and JP Buys. In a pure striking affair, Arce would be vulnerable to Jackson’s power but the former is far more willing to mix in grappling and groundwork.
- Choi Decision ...Trizano has struggled to maintain pace with recent opponents, striking at effectively half of the significant strikes of Hakeem Dawodu and Lucas Almeida. Allowing Choi the freedom to work his way into the fight and impose his frame seems like a surefire way to allow the Korean back to the win column.
- Kowalkiewicz ...I’m not sure how much stock can be put into beating Felice Herrig, but one can hope that Kowalkiewicz has regained some of her lost confidence. Both women are at a crossroads fight, with both 37 and playing out the string so-to-speak. The main question is; Does Gomez has the power to sleep Kowalkiewicz? Unlikely, considering the Pole has only been stopped by the heavy-handed Jessica Andrade.
- Azaitar KO EARLY! ...Matt Frevola has a more rounded skillset, if he can survive a horrifyingly difficult first round, Steamrolla will thrive. Unfortunately, his kryptonite is aggressive, early strikers. Ottman Azaitar can find his range on the first punch – and the finish soon after.
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Like the value with Nicolae
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 281: ESPN Prelims:
ANDRE PETROSKI(8-1) VS WELLINGTON TURMAN(18-5) ~ MW (185)- Petroski ITD & Under ...Petroski is an exciting one-round threat without much control of his gas tank. The TUF competitor explodes on everything – overhands, power doubles, speculative submissions. Wellington Turman just so happens to start slow and carry a flakey chin to boot...the sum is not good for Welly...
- Blanchfield Decision ...McCann's riding a wave of confidence, but the match-makers don't seem too keen on outspoken Scouser. Blanchfield is a strong takedown artist, with varying trips and throws, and could replicate similarly dominant performances as Taila Santos and Lara Procopio. Meatball carries enough power and early aggression to buzz Blanchfield, but it’s more likely that "Meatball" spends lots of time trying to get upright after many takedowns.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 281: ESPN Prelims:
DOMINICK REYES(12-3) VS RYAN SPANN(20-7) ~ LHW (205)
- Reyes ITD ...Spann’s recent victory over Cutelaba largely came from his opponents' reckless takedowns. That said, Superman still carries heavy hands. Against Reyes, who has sat on the sidelines for a year and a half, it may be enough. But I’d like to think Reyes has recuperated from losses vs the division’s elite and show a huge gap in class between himself and Spann. But the long layoff is always bothersome when capping. Still, I do believe Reyes finds a home for that power left and cashes early.
- Riddell ...Facing Riddell’s conservative counter-punching, Moicano will be free to set the pace and lead off the front foot. However, Renato lacks the wrestling chops to transition into his slick grappling. More likely, Riddell mixes in his own ground game – only a year ago Brad sat Drew Dober on his ass five times in their 3-rounder. Once Riddell has made his reads, the Kiwi should break Moicano mentally. Moicano has been around plenty and there's always the chance his tricky grappling finds a sub in one of the likely many scrambles. I'll ride the Riddell decision and over.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 281: Main Card
DAN HOOKER VS CLAUDIO PUELLES(12-2) ~ FW (145)- Hooker KO ...A big step down in competition for the Hangman, this will define his future. Puelles is a dynamic submission artist, with consecutive kneebars to prove it. However, Claudio lacks the wrestling tools needed to create his preferred fight on the mat. This fight seems destined to stay on the feet and see the Kiwi blast Puelles into the shadow realm.
- Edgar Decision ...The former champ has seen his chin and physical gifts wane significantly of late. Two huge red flags for a fighter that now leans more heavily on wrestling for a safe victory. Gutierrez has been pinned to the mat before; the 31-year-old struggled against Cody Durden’s relentless takedown attempts and Raoni Barcelos’ technical top game. We will most likely see Gutierrez tear apart Edgar’s lead leg. This is a tough call because at this stage Chris should be the no-brainer...dude has a 7 fight-unbeaten streak. Still, I’m a sentimentalist and find myself wanting to back Edgar for one last hurrah. Still undecided, but that's my lean
- Poirier TKO Late ...Everyone knows Chandler’s an early-round threat on the feet to catch Poirier cold and I'll assume Dustin has this factored highly. The speed and power differential in the 1st will be stark, but it is still not the safest route to back. Rather, Poirier’s awkward cross-guard will create problems for Chandler along with a deep gas tank that is sure to punish a notorious fader. We can't ignore Iron Mike’s wrestling avenue, but once he finds early success on the feet he will chase the finish to the end, his end.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 281: Co-Main Event
CARLA ESPARZA(19-6) VS WEILI ZHANG(22-3) ~ UFC Strawweight Championship (115)- Zhang ITD ...A skilled and relentless chain wrestler, Esparza found almost no success on the mat against Thug Rose yet won based on intent/ activity. The "Cookie Monster" remains the best technical wrestler in the division, however, and is primed to claim entire rounds of control time against Zhang. Two problems for her: Weili’s freak physicality and ability to catch a second wind. At some point, Zhang will make the most of her vast advantage on the feet if/when Carla’s takedowns are slowed.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 281: Main Event
ISRAEL ADESANYA(23-1) VS ALEX PEREIRA(6-1) ~ UFC Middleweight Championship (185)
- Adesanya Decision ...Adesanya finally faces his boogeyman. Alex Pereira holds two victories over Adesanya, including a KO that has plagued Izzy on social media over his entire career. For a champion so defensive of his belt and such a consummate game planner, don’t be surprised if Adesanya swallows the boos to grind Pereira against the cage. Andreas Michailidis dominated Poatan for an entire round in the clinch, after all. Not saying Adesanya can't control a striking affair, either. Pereira owns a monster left and a freakishly long frame, but he does leave his mid-rift open. Considering Adesanya’s arsenal of range weapons, the Kiwi has a shot at nullifying Alex throughout 25-minutes. It does seem a little foolish, however, to roll those dice against an opponent who has proven to own one-shot KO power over you. Definitely not a shut-and-closed case. Izzy will have to dig very deep to work around Pereira’s nuclear power. I just feel like the variety that Adesanya offers will ask questions about Pereira’s gas tank that is yet to be proven in the sphere of MMA.
Even though I capped it for Izzy, I may just take a flier on Alex. Weile was my to pick of the night, but I backed off a bit because odd grew so much, At least the last 2 fights go me within striking distance of plus money on the night. The fights have been awesome!
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
May as well do a little under too because we know Alex isnt winning no decision.
- 2/1.57 Pereira / Adesanya u4½ -130
:megaphone:
