UFC 276

[mrpickem]

Huge card tonight in Vegas, maybe the best of the year so far



I've been saddled in the worse slump on my UFC wagering life and all I can say is there is nowhere to go but up. I have been actually so bad, I would not have thought this possible. Still, I will be in the game firing for the fences and looking to come back stronger than ever!



Down nearly 90 units in the last 3 cards with an anemic 17% win pct :shocked:

 

[Andy]

It's been a tough yr betting the sport. The judging is the worst we've ever seen. Seems like more upsets than usual as well. But least the fights have been more entertaining of late. Hoping to rebound in the 2nd half of the yr as well. GL.

 

[skanless13]

Tied for best card for sure

 

[KJ]

Watching that presser Max sounds like he's forcing his shit talk. It was cringe worthy. Not sure his brain isn't scrambled at this point but that was a disaster.

 

[mrpickem]

Watching that presser Max sounds like he's forcing his shit talk. It was cringe worthy. Not sure his brain isn't scrambled at this point but that was a disaster.

Agree, thinking he's just selling and has no real answer for Volk...probably get repeat of first 2 which were both good fights, but without decisive winner

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 276 Early Prelims:​

JESSICA-ROSE CLARK(11-7) VS JULIJA STOLIARENKO(9-6-1) ~ Women’s Bantamweight (135)

• Stoliarenko Decision ...A one-trick pony, Stoli literally is a ‘secure armbar or die’ type of fighter. Clark by decision would seem the safe call but I’m opting for some Stoliarenko magic as her boxing looked far improved last time out vs Alexis Davis, and you simply cannot write off Clark walking head-first (or arm-first, in this instance) into her opponent’s preferred fight.

JESSICA EYE(15-10) VS MAYCEE BARBER(10-2) ~ Women’s Flyweight (125)

• Barber ...Eye thrives as the more physically imposing fighter, which will be met with equal gusto by Maycee Barber. Barber isn’t the glittering prospect that the UFC first thought, but "The Future" can get by on her physicality and volume as she works out her skillset. Eye is the more proven entity, yet as a form fighter, this sets up as somewhat of a sad retirement fight.

URIAH HALL(17-10) VS ANDRE MUNIZ(22-4) ~ Middleweight (185)

• Muniz Sub ...Muniz’s hands may be sluggish and telegraphed, but his sole intent is to take the fight to the ground. Once on the mat, Muniz wastes no time chasing speculative submissions. This does allow opponents to return to their feet, but Hall can be broken with extended grappling exchanges. "Prime Time" is still a threatening counter-striker and considering Muniz’s telegraphed takedowns, there is some potential for Andre to sleep. However it’s difficult to tell what version of Hall will show up on Saturday, therefore I cannot feel safe in backing him.

 

[mrpickem]

Early action:

• 1.33/4 Julija Stoliarenko by Points +300
• 2.08/3 Julija Stoliarenko +144
• 5/1.64 MAYCEE BARBER -305
• 4/2.29 Andre Muniz Wins Inside Distance -175

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 276 ESPN Prelims:​

BRAD TAVARES(19-6) VS DRICUS DU PLESSIS(16-2) ~ Middleweight (185)

• Tavares Decision ..Durable, difficult to takedown, and relatively slick defensively, Tavares has the tools to take this late and punish a tiring Du Plessis during one of his wild flurries. Du Plessis has shown to be uncontrolled with his aggression and is begging to be countered.

DONALD CERRONE(36-16) VS JIM MILLER(34-16) ~ Welterweight (170)

• Miller KO Round 1 ...For a while now, Miller has continued stunning prospects with incomplete skillsets. A-10 has a canny knack for finding an opponent’s back and is a lethal punisher once latched on. Cowboy has never been a fast starter, but he is increasingly incapable of building momentum. Miller, like Lauzon, is an early-round threat that continues to carry power, indicating that Cerrone could well be iced in R1 for the 3rd time in six fights.

IAN GARRY(9-0) VS GABE GREEN(11-3) ~ Welterweight (170)

• Garry ITD ...Green isn’t a polished boxer but does bring impressive volume. Constantly bouncing and pumping his jab, it’ll be a double-edged sword against Garry. On the one hand, Green will regularly walk himself onto Garry’s long counters. On the other, Green will set a furious pace that has wilted many fighters before. If, as expected, Green can't buy time on the ground – his inability to enter from different angles will be punished.

BRAD RIDDELL(10-2) VS JALIN TURNER(12-5) ~ Lightweight (155)

• Riddell ...Turner looks a different beast from his UFC debut. Far more confident in his freakish 6’3″ frame, Turner may be a little right-hand dominant yet his kicks off the lead leg are brutally effective. Punishing knees and refined clinch striking are also nice additions to the Tarantula’s arsenal. Still, Brad Riddell is a proven entity against quality opposition. Although Fiziev cracked the Kiwi’s chin, it is too early to doubt the slick counter-punchers durability. Turner’s TDD and gas tank remain red flags until proven otherwise.

 

[mrpickem]

[2-2 -0.69u]

• 3/4.74 Brad Tavares +158
• 4/2.42 JIM MILLER -165
• 1.62/2 JIM MILLER vs DONALD u1½+123

 

[Vapster]

Great Stuff/Write-Ups As Always Brother!

 

[mrpickem]

apparently, I had the order wrong, Garry is next up so this is my play

• 3/1.53 IAN GARRY -196
• 2.5/4.75 Ian Garry Wins Inside Distance +190

The last one was a loser, but a great fight, and Brad gave it a run...as a 150 dog I'm happy with that one regardless of outcome...

 

[mrpickem]

[5-4 -0.24u]

• 3.1/4 BRAD RIDDELL +129

Should be a great fight upcoming...
Congrats to Cowboy on a great career as an exciting fighter I always loved watching.

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 276: Main Card​

ROBBIE LAWLER(29-15) VS BRYAN BARBERENA(17-8) ~ Middleweight (170)

• Lawler and Over ...Maybe the match-up to find out who is the most washed as there isn’t much to separate the two. Lawler’s losing streak was snapped against an out-of-shape Nick Diaz, but at least it provided some indication of something left in the tank. Barberena will try to push a high offensive volume, while Lawler’s increased emphasis on the body may slow "Bam Bam". Robbie is still gun-shy in his twilight, yet Barberena has physically slowed after countless wars. Lots of strikes thrown and landed but both fighters like survive. Maybe the over is the best way to play.

PEDRO MUNHOZ(19-7) VS SEAN O’MALLEY(15-1) ~ Bantamweight (135)

• O’Malley ...I’ll side with O’Malley to out-strike a very hittable, aging Munhoz. Huge doubts have to be placed on O’Malley’s biscuit legs holding up fifteen minutes, a prime target for Munhoz’s powerful leg kicks. Still, it just feels as though O’Malley is meeting Munhoz at the perfect time. "Sugga" has proven an ability to operate shrewdly on the outside against the much lesser pressure threat of Kris Moutinho.

SEAN STRICKLAND(25-3) VS ALEX PEREIRA(5-1) ~ Middleweight (185)

• Strickland ...This is the perfect match-up for the long-time kickboxer. On "D" Sean lacks the speed to avoid danger for a full fifteen minutes against Pereira’s heavy strikes. Win this bout and you can bet the house that Dana fast-tracks Pereira to a title shot grudge bout against Izzy. Still, Pereira has three chances at the start of each round to find the off-switch, otherwise, it’ll be an exhausting night. Uriah Hall is hardly a TDD savant, but Strickland managed to outwrestle the veteran with ease. If there’s anything that Strickland has shown since his return to the octagon, it is that he is a consummate game planner and smart fighter "in the ring".

 

[mrpickem]

Wow, Turner's gonna be a force at LW. Dude seems to have the total package making short work of very tough Aussie Riddell.

onto the main card now...

[5-5 -3.34u]

• 3.77/4 Robbie Lawler +106
• 3.82/2 BRYAN BARBERENA vs ROBBIE LAWLER o2½ -191
• 1.54/2 SEAN OMALLEY INSIDE DISTANCE +130
• 7/2.35 SEAN O'MALLEY -298

 

[mrpickem]

[5-7-2 -10.93u]

• 3.60/3 SEAN STRICKLAND -120
• 1.67/5 Sean Strickland Wins Inside Distance +300

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 276: Co-Main Event​

ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI(24-1) VS MAX HOLLOWAY(23-6) ~ Featherweight (145)

UFC Featherweight Championship​

• Volkanovski Decision ...As seen in the 1st fight, Volk’s chipping leg kicks disrupted Max’s jab – the foundational weapon he uses to build combinations. Add in the inside trips and brief exchanges in the clinch, and it explains just how "The Great’s" relentless output was able to throw Holloway off rhythm. Volk better figure out an answer for Holloway’s greater kicking output in the second affair. We maqy see Volk once again press an unbalanced Holloway to the cage and shave away control time. On the other hand, Max’s success in their second affair largely stemmed from capturing the early rounds. Once Volk knew he was chasing the fight in the championship rounds, the Aussie was forced to take risks and throw extended combinations in the pocket. This in turn played into Holloway’s natural game, reactively slipping and returning with hard uppercuts. As a fighter that excels with a steady pace and settling into a rhythm, Holloway must force Volkanovski to feel as though he is chasing the fight. Seeing Yair breaking Blessed’s pace, on the feet no less, is a red flag that leaves me siding fractionally with the champion. Very close call as the first 2 were.

 

[mrpickem]

[5-9-2 -16.2u]

• 3/4.80 MAX HOLLOWAY +160
• 2/5.00 ISRAEL ADESANYA ROUNDS 1,2 OR 3 +250
• 2.30/2 JARED CANNONIER vs ISRAEL ADESANYA u4½ -115

Rolling with Max for 2 reasons...odds & my picks have been shit so I'm fading myself :rofl:​

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 276: Main Event​

ISRAEL ADESANYA(22-1) VS JARED CANNONIER(15-5) ~ Middleweight (185)
UFC Middleweight Championship

• Adesanya TKO Round 2 ...Cannonier’s mental toughness is astounding, he dug his way out of deep holes against Brunson (to a TKO victory) and Whittaker (to a close loss). Worryingly, Cannonier often misses strikes that aren’t fired down the pipe as a result of his head-down forward pressure or high-guard defense. Brunson dropped Cannonier with a right hook as the latter plowed forward in a straight line, while Whittaker maneuvered Jared into a head kick off the back of a simple 1-2. Adesanya is a far more wily tactician on the feet and is primed to use his height and reach advantage to set traps from distance. But you write off Cannonier, as he is one of the hardest-hitting Middleweights. Izzy showed discomfort after being clipped by Romero early, forcing the fight to descend into a dull chess match. Although Cannonier lacks the wrestling chops to create doubt in Adesanya’s mind, he can certainly match the Kiwi in a leg-kicking affair. However, Adesanya just seems built to handle this match-up with ease.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck rest of the way