UFC 273 VAP Style!

[Vapster]

Julio Arce -195 Vs.
Daniel “WillyCat” Santos +165

A lot times when dissecting these fights I’ll speak about the importance of recognizing trending mistakes. One of those mistakes has been sleeping on Brazilian fighters who, maybe don’t have the same fan fare as other Brazilian fighters because let’s be honest, there’s levels to this shit. Granted you never really wanna sleep on anyone in the UFC, but sometimes with the Brazilian dudes, pick against them at any point and chances are you’ll regret the decision of not at least seeing some film first, because what you’ve missed will be staring at you right in the face...
And now you’re shit out of luck on an easy +165 money line winner who happens to train with Charles Oliviera and a bunch of other killers from Brazil.

That’s what we may have here. With the Willy Cat. And I dunno what the fuck a Willy Cat is, or if there even is such a thing, but I’m gonna pretend there is and I’m gonna pretend it’s mean. Like, real mean. Feral, barn yard Bob shit mean.
Tear your ass off, man.

So I DID go watch some tape, and I like what I saw. Didn’t necessarily love what I saw. I think stylistically Santos, the Willy Cat, might have to chase Arce in this one. And with Arce’s boxing chops/ reach advantage, I think he might find himself in a fire fight at times, but ultimately weathers a storm or two and wins the war of attrition.

Arce is the more seasoned and experienced fighter, I think he’s a better striker, but most importantly I think Julio Arce is gonna respect Daniel Santos just enough to be cautious when and where he needs to be. And where there’s times that I’ve made the huge mistake sleeping on some of these young Brazilians, Arce is no dummy. And I don’t believe for one second that he will make the same mistake I’ve made.

Yeah, the Brazilian Willy Cat has a crazed look in his eyes, and after watching tape he does have upside, he’s electric, throws a bunch of spinning shit, fast hands, good kicks however, in this fight against Arce, I think Julio is gonna be smarter and piece him up.

But again, I’m picking Julio Arce to get the win. I just think it’s a little too much too soon for Daniel. We’ll see. I am bracing for fireworks in this one, though.

 

[Vapster]

First women’s MMA fight of the night and it’s a pretty good one.

Kay Hansen (+100) Vs.

Piera Rodriguez (-120)
Alright this is one of those classic battles where I’ll make a read early, and as fight night approaches, I find myself fading in the opposite direction. Also known as “waffling”.

So lemme first attempt to sell you on Piera Rodriguez (the favorite) at -120 before I go against the grain and pick Kay Hansen. Because it’s a fight that, to me, each woman has a clear path to victory, you just gotta decide which of these two cage warriors are in better position to implement their respective game plans inside of the Octagon. And what to do if and when they both do what they do best.

Initially I was all over Rodriguez like a dog hanging off the back of a meat truck. She’s fighting out of Venezuela, has the pedigree of a “take no shit from anyone” kind of fighter. A “kill or be killed” mentality. This is the kind of woman I love wagering on just because I know she’s gonna leave it all out there. I watched the tape, did the film study, the girl is wild! She’s great with her hands, isn’t afraid to stand in the pocket and give 1 to take 3. She basically goes hunting for fire fights. And if you touch her up, she’ll usually acknowledge your efforts with a grunt or a growl, a very primal gesture, as if to say, “Yeah, bring it! Let’s go!” Which I also love.

Just because, so much is made about the so called brutality of mixed martial arts. I mean, look at the way we totally overreacted to a simple, open hand slap at the Oscars. Are you kidding me? You’d think the world had just stopped. Like nobody understands what conflict is about? The Stockton Slap? The 209? So it’s always a pleasure to see these men and women in there having fun, even when they’re getting the living shit kicked out of them. Listen alarmists, these are trained professionals. In the ART of self defense. Let. That. Marinate.

This isn’t some fuckin’ overweight bully in the science wing locking NERDS in their lockers, little pencil neck geeks who don’t know how to defend themselves. You get a girl who gets smashed in the face, sticks out her tongue, spits blood out her mouth and starts howling at the fuckin’ moon!?!

Yeah, I’m here for it.

Matter of fact, marry me.

Problem with Piera is that as much as I love this style of combat, Kay Hansen brings a certain style of her own that I think is gonna be problematic for Rodriguez. Specifically, you’re combining this often times reckless brand of stand up against a girl (Hansen) who wrestles her ass off. Which makes the take downs all the more ... too easy.

If I thought Piera could keep this fight standing for 3 rounds, I’d lock her in right now. But I don’t. I think Kay Hansen is a grinder. And when you look at her build, it only validates exactly that. She’s stocky. Strong in the shoulders. Good hips. Looks like the kind of girl who played catcher on a D-1 college softball team.
She’s gonna ugly it up. On the mat. And her last name is Hansen. Yeah, I don’t know about anyone else but, I’ve never known anyone with the last name of Hansen to be anything but tough. So...

Here’s the one issue I have with Kay that makes me hesitant. She’s 22 years old, Rodriguez is 27. She just missed weight by 2.5 pounds. And sometimes in the UFC, they’ll ask too much of their young talent. Too green. Kay has already been put through the ringer early, with losses to formidable opposition the likes of Jasmine Jasudavicius and Corey McKenna, respectively. Is she already broken? Damaged goods?
But before you put all your chips in that “too green” basket, or suspect she’s overrated, she squared up with Jinh Yu Frey and beat her with a round 3 arm bar. Jinh Yu Frey is not some Hunt’s Tomato can. That girl is rock solid as well.

Listen, this is one where I gotta trust my instincts. Because this has happened to me before where I’ll be sold one way early, then gradually fade in favor of that little voice telling me I’m wrong. And! You’re getting better value with Kay Hansen at +100. Possibly even better now that she’s missed weight.
I’m gonna go Hansen. I think she wins by decision but also wouldn’t hesitate to take a look at the under 2.5 in the event that Kay goes fishing for a submission once she gets this thing to the mat. Which is currently sitting at a tasty +175.
I’m rolling with her. If I swing and miss, so be it. I may even hedge my bet with Rodriguez on another card. Just in case she’s the apple pie shitter of the night.

 

[Vapster]

Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez (-200) Vs.

Josh Fremd (+170)

So we’re three fights in and we’ve got a real decent chance that UFC 273 could tee off with 3 underdogs hitting. In fact, I’ve got one of my more reliable “sources” already on record, going with Josh Fremd at +170.
Which I don’t hate, by the way.

I could definitely see him winning. So I’m told he’s the better athlete and yeah, that has its advantages for sure. He’s also a tough Pennsylvania kid, representing Pittsburgh PA, a blue collar kind of town, and we’ve seen a lot of these Pennsylvania kids coming into the UFC and holding their own. Impressively.
So I went into film study expecting this short notice fighter out of Pennsylvania to show me why I should pick him. Couldn’t find it. I like his stature. Definitely long, rangy, athletic. I like his toughness. He’s even got a little bit of the Glimmerman in his eyes. And I don’t wanna square up with the Glimmerman.
Guys like Sean Strickland. Andrew Ruiz.

But here’s the thing...

I think my “source” and everyone else who is fading Anthony Hernandez while leaning towards Josh, are actually sleeping on Anthony Hernandez. Questioning if his shocking upset victory over the Brazilian Jui Jitsu master Rodolfo Vieira was just a matter of dumb luck. That Vieira may have slept on Anthony, and didn’t train for him properly. Which is why he gassed out early.

Yeah well, I think that’s a bunch of bullshit. I think Anthony is every bit as tough as Josh Fremd. I think he’s gonna be better on the feet. Better on the ground. Better everywhere. And the reason I feel that way is because I know Anthony is the training partner of Max Griffin, a dude from up here in Northern California and both these cats aren’t the ones. They both put in work. Junkyard dogs.

They’re mean fighters.

As gritty and gutty as they come.


I understand anyone with the nickname “Fluffy” might have you questioning some things, but this is a fight where I’m totally ignoring my sources and “Fluffy” will set out to prove something that I already know, which is my “sources” aren’t always more knowledgeable than I am. Sometimes you gotta stick to your guns.
So what we have here is blue collar tough Pittsburgh versus blue collar tough Northern California and believe me, it’s not territorial. I’d take Fremd at +170 too if I wasn’t so unsure of his chin. Which is another tricky element of this fight. Two tough guys who are gonna meet in the center of the Octagon, my knee jerk reaction is to jump on the over 1.5 at +115. And expect a grinder. A war of attrition.

However, I’ve seen Hernandez run through guys on his feet and on the ground. I’ve also seen Josh Fremd get smoked quickly. So in taking the over, I’m basically wagering that Fremd’s chin will get him through this fight. Or at least, survive the early onslaught. Because if he’s gonna get KO’d, I think it happens early. I think Hernandez could very well just throw caution to the wind and look to make a statement on Saturday night.
Give me Hernandez. With something to prove.

 

[Vapster]

Jared Vandera -110

Alexsei Olenik -110

Not the sexiest fight on the card, quite frankly I’m not sure either of these guys should be considered UFC caliber heavyweights at this point with one (Vandera) kinda bumbling and stumbling his way through the front door and the other, albeit a UFC legend in Olenik, might just have one last trick submission up his sleeve.
In fact, if you were gonna side with the Russian, Olenik by submission is probably the way to go. Highly doubtful he knocks Jared Vandera out. Or at 44 years old, has the gas tank to go the distance with him.

Vandera is a tank. And dude can take a wallop. With that said, I don’t think these two lumbering turds are going the full 3 rounds to be honest. Either Vandera is gonna show an extremely low fight IQ, and try to take Olenik to the ground where he’ll most likely find himself getting submitted, or Vandera leans on Olenik, wears the old man down, drags his ass into the deep end of the pool and eventually stops him.
Which is exactly what I think is gonna happen.

I’m siding with Vandera at -110. Again, slight risk, nice reward. Vandera is a big, lumbering heavyweight, he’s gonna have a tremendous size advantage. I don’t believe he’s as dumb as he looks to where he starts rolling around on the ground with that Russian submission artist. Unless he thinks he can avoid getting choked out.
Give me the big wank at -110. Not interested in the Over/ Under. Probably the “Go Get More Beer” fight of the night.

 

[Vapster]

Mickey Gall (+160) Vs.

Mike Malott (-190)

Now let’s get serious about some underdog winners. Let’s start making some serious money. Because this is one where I think the lines could be out of whack. I think at the very least, this fight right here should be a pick ‘em. -110’s across the board.
I just don’t quite understand the -190 on Mike Malott against a UFC, battle tested vet like Mickey Gall. Listen, I get that Malott is the striking coach at Team Alpha Male, a gym filled with killers, and Malott will most likely put on a good showing. I seen him on Dana White’s Contender Series where he made quick work out of some promising prospect from Israel. Some of my sources (plural) north of the border are even talking about he’s the next coming of George St. Pierre.
Pffff. Go easy, Canada. Go easy.

Here’s a fight where I learn from my mistakes. And instead of jumping on a potential hype train, I’m gonna park my ass on the bench at the station and play “Don’t Tell Me, Show Me” against Mickey. Because I’ve done this a few times before where I’ll see a dude with talent, a guy like a Mike Malott, and I’ll expect him to be something that maybe he’s not. A mirage. Kicking tomato cans down the street.

I’ve bet against Mickey in the past and been burned. There’s just something about Mickey Gall where, because he fought and beat up a WWE wrestler named CM Punk, a total clown show, people wanna make Mickey out to be a joker as well.

Which he isn’t. He’s been in there with Diego Sanchez, Mike Perry, Alex Morono, Randy Brown. All losses. To formidable competition. 3 of those 4 losses came by decision. We’re talking losses here. But those L’s are still part of his growth and development as a fighter. Don’t write this dude off just yet, is what I’m saying.
Listen, bros. Mike Malott is 30 years old. If he was the -200 favorite they’re making him out to be here against Mickey Gall, this wouldn’t be his UFC debut. He’d have been whooping peoples asses for the past 5-6 years with the promotion.

Again, don’t tell me show me in this one.

I like Mickey Gall. I like the value play at +160. He’s fighting out of Sanford MMA, new gym, great training partners, I think Mickey comes out and styles on Mike Malott. Cements himself in this one. As a legit UFC fighter.

Give me Mickey.

 

[Vapster]

AND! As far as my second favorite plus money underdog of the night...

Aspen Ladd (+160) Vs.

Raquel Pennington (-165)

Had to wait for the weigh in on this one. My girl Aspen Ladd? Sometimes she tends to struggle with weight cuts. Like, send my ass to the emergency room on weigh in day kind of struggles. That’s another interesting angle when wagering on the UFC. Probably a good idea to see the look in a fighters eyes the day they step on the scales. At times you go in on somebody let’s say on Monday, they show up one day before the fight, hit the scales looking like they just ate the sushi at Chevon.
Christ.

You got some of these athletes messing with their own demise just to make weight. All the more reason that the UFC should include about 2-3 more weight classes, more champions, more fighters, more talent. But more importantly, make it so you’re not at risk of someone like Aspen Ladd taking a dirt nap at the weigh ins. More weight classes equals easier weight cuts, which I think is good for everybody.
But I digress...

I like Aspen Ladd in this one. It started as an instinctual money line reach. Has progressed into a full fledged blueprint for a money making weekend. High on Gall, high on Ladd.

Not overlooking Raquel Pennington in the least. I know what she is. In fact, speaking of blueprints, when it comes to Raquel, I feel like I trained her to fight. That’s how familiar I am with her style. It’s very basic and very effective. It’s basically an all out blitz. Raquel is gonna come forward, and unless you’re fast and powerful enough to stand your ground and hit her with some shots that make her think twice, earn some respect, Pennington will come forward behind a flurry of punches and then try to muscle you against the cage. Box to dirty box.

You create space. She continues to press. Rinse and repeat. She’s not a beast on the ground, and if you’re a strong woman like Ladd, ground control time under Pennington isn’t something you should fear on the judges score cards.

What’s gonna matter in this fight is styles, if you’re wagering on Raquel, you’re gonna have to hope that Aspen Ladd doesn’t show up bringing her Aspen Ladd “A Game” because that’s just Aspen for an Ass Whuppin’. It’s a style pretty much tailor made for Raquel. You aren’t gonna play bully ball with Aspen. And if you try, it’s you who who is gonna get bullied back.

Give me Aspen Ladd, give me the +160 and if you really wanna get naked, take the UNDER 2.5 at +260. Do not sleep on an Aspen Ladd stoppage in this one. I know Raquel is a bulldog. I don’t know if she’s ever been stopped or submitted. All signs point towards a decision.
But wouldn’t hate taking a shot on the UNDER.
I got Ladd.

 

[Vapster]

Darian Weeks (+290) Vs.

Ian Gary (-400)

Yes you read that right. We officially have our first heavy favorite at -400 and it’s a kid who, I think the UFC wants to fast track. Ian Gary. A young lad who fights out of Ireland, and in a very Conor McGregor rip off kind of way, he’s a kid who likes to talk. He runs his mouth...
“Everyone look at me...”
“I’m the future...”
“Follow me on Instagram...”

Then, he steps in the Octagon like he did his last fight against a mildly promising prospect named Jordan Williams and, look, I don’t wanna say he almost lost, but he definitely got touched. He was busting out the stanky legs. The Irish chicken dance.
It wasn’t a good look for the kid. But, he survived. He weathered an early storm or two and got the finish. So he deserves credit for that. Of course, then he got back on the mic and sold himself even further.

“I can’t be beat...”
“I’m the best ever...”
“Look at my tits...”
So let’s regroup.

Here we have Darian Weeks who is gonna give you as good a value play as anyone on this card. Quite frankly, one would be foolish to NOT take a shot and roll with Weeks. I know I am. At +290?! Against a kid from Ireland who “might” be far more bark than he is bite?

Dudes, there’s a theme going on here with UFC 273. Don’t tell me, show me. So here we go again. I’m not totally convinced Gary is a bust, but I’m not totally convinced he’s not gonna get busted in the mouth against Darian Weeks, either. And if and when that happens? Once again your -400 favorite from Ireland might have you sweating in your living room. Better heavy favorites on this card in my opinion. Way better.

So I’m not touching him (Gary) at that overpriced value. It’s a 1987 Fleer Kevin Maas as far as I’m concerned. Possible fools gold. And for that reason, I’m not only out, I’m taking Darian Weeks to pull off the huge upset.

I think much like Williams did, Weeks finds Ian Gary early and Ian Gary finds himself wondering what the fuck just happened. The apple pie shitter of the night! Serving it to everyone jumping on this Irish hype train.
Enjoy it!

I’m riding with Weeks. Let’s go!!!

 

[Vapster]

Vinc “From Hell” Pichel (-115) Vs.

Mark Madsen (-105)

Lots of my “sources” going with the Greco Roman wrestler Mark Madsen in this spot. The Olympic silver medalist. I harken back on something Khabib Nurmagomedov said recently about how in the UFC, wrestling and wrestlers are king.
Interesting take on things.

They (the wrestlers) are the ones shooting single and double legs, taking fights to the ground, pushing a torrent, grueling pace all while controlling ground time and making it difficult on more fan friendly/ fan pleasing styles of fights.
I mean, who wants to watch 15 minutes of jock sniffing on the ground? It took me a minute, too. Transitioning from boxing. It took me a minute to appreciate wrestlers.
In Mark Madsen, that’s pretty much all you’re gonna get. There’s nothing much “mixed” about his martial art. He’s not exceptional with his hands, but he is exceptional at wrestling. Again, silver medalist.

Vinc Pichel? The man from hell? He reminds me of old school Johnny Tapia, for those of us who grew up in the golden era of boxing. He’s got that same look. The same guts. The same grit. The same appeal. The kind of guy you take one look at and know he’s been in more than a few street fights growing up.
Both these guys are old. I believe Vinc is 39. Madsen is 37. Smaller guys so I don’t think age is gonna be that much of a factor for Pichel because he’s not gonna be the one pushing the wrestling.

But I do think Pichel’s grit and guts can wear on Mark Madsen’s constant, wrestle heavy approach. In other words, if this comes down to who gasses out first, I’d bet on Madsen.

I think it goes over the 2.5 and I think Pichel gets the decision. Real grinder, tho. Wouldn’t be surprised if Vinc finds himself down early, but battles back to get the decision.

Give me Pichel, and give me the over 2.5 at -195.

 

[Vapster]

Mackenzie Dern (-115) Vs.

Tecia Torres (-105)

Ok so, again, this is gonna be one where I’m gonna admit I’m betting with my heart here and ignoring what my instincts are telling me. Breaking this fight down is pretty easy when it comes to my girl Mackenzie. If she gets you on the ground, you’re in a WHOLE WORLD of trouble. For my money, throw gender out the window. I think she’s one of the highest level Brazilian Jui Jitsu experts in the UFC.

Her #1 problem (besides being married to a surfer named Wesley Santos), is that Mackenzie struggles to get fights/ fighters to the ground. Where she absolutely needs to operate. Especially against a high volume, high output machine like Tecia Torres.
So the outcome of this fight seems pretty simple. Torres stays on her feet, Torres wins a unanimous decision. Torres gets taken down? Slips on the mat? Torres is probably fucked.

Listen, all signs are pointing towards Torres. My “sources” are pointing towards Torres. Tecia is the pick. Why she’s not a decent sized favorite here according to how the public seems to be on Tecia? A little suspicious.
I’m going Dern here. I think something weird is gonna happen where Dern catches Torres on the ground (where I’d like to be with her) and she locks up a submission.

 

[skanless13]

Nice write ups. Would love to hear your thoughts on the 3 mains

 

[Vapster]

@skanless13

I’m trying to figure out which one of these 3 favorites, these three absolute killers (Volk, Yan, Chimaev) is most likely to shit the bed tonight.

And right away I don’t think it’s gonna be Khamzat. That fuckin’ guy...

Christ man. Put it this way, that dude loses to Burns and I’ll be shocked. I think Khamzat is going to smash him.

“I kill everyone...”

 

[Vapster]

Chael Sonnen has Zombie for the win. Thinks he (Zombie) loses every round and then BOOM! Hits Volkanovski and turns his lights out!
Sonnen?
Pretty knowledgeable. He’s pulled some rabbits out of his ass in the past.
I dunno know, tho. For me? That’s a tall task. I mean, I guess he’s got a punchers chance. But ‘Volk is a real tough nut to crack. Shit on of value with the Zombie.
And Zombie is one of my all time favorites...

 

[Vapster]

Alja looks really good. Physically. I just don’t know if that matters much.
Not sure big muscles and chiseled physiques matter in this fight game. Look at Nate Diaz.
Guy isn’t taking his shirt off and impressing anyone physically.
But he can scrap.
To me it’s more natural athletic ability and mindset. And there’s no question Sterling is athletically gifted, I just don’t know where his head is at.
Dude looks like a million bucks but could very well step in the Octagon tomorrow night totally doubting his ability.
Best way to overcome that is being fearless of your opponent. Even if you are gonna get worked. Again, Nate Diaz is a perfect example.
You’re gonna beat my ass?
Pffff. So what? Let’s go to war. I love that mentality. That’s why pound 4 pound he’s probably my favorite fighter. Dude doesn’t give a shit. Getting your ass kicked is overrated. When your mentally strong enough to handle it. Fall down. Take your lumps. Get back up again.
Just like in life, Skanless.

 

[Andy]

nice writeups thanks. agree on ladd, pichel, and dern. i'd prob lean more to rodriguez over hansen, but like you said its a close one. GL tonight.