UFC 272
- Thread starter mrpickem
- Start date
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 272 - Early Prelims
- Jacoby Decision ...Jacoby is a consistent, experienced, and fabulously compact kickboxer who will keep Oleksiejczuk on long counters all night. Even with a new lease of life in 2021, Oleksiejczuk is a simple pressure fighter who Jacoby should be able to read immediately. Oleksiejczuk does have a slither of offensive wrestling to offer, but Jacoby has shown solid TDD in his UFC stint.
- Klein KO ...Moving up to Lightweight, Klein needs a big performance if he wants to ignite some hype behind him. In a match-up between two flawed fighters, the only thing guaranteed is huge power from both men. Smith’s natural talent is clear, but he has never shown the consistent cage cutting needed to stifle Klein’s kicking space.
- Ulanbekov Decision ...Elliot looks far more composed on the feet since training with James Krause. Unfortunately, the American hasn't shown the power needed to crack Ulanbekov’s chin. Ulanbekov’s relentless wrestling and the deeper gas tank should frustrate Elliot and score well with the judges.
- Nurmagomedov ...A pressure, chain-wrestler is designed to beat Kelleher. The veteran needs time to warm up in fights, making reads to set up his crafty counter-punches. Umar gives opponents no time to settle as he opens with his heavy kicks and searches for a quick takedown. This feels like a potential repeat of the Brian Kelleher vs Ricky Simon bout.
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Love Jacoby here. GL tonight
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 272 - ESPN Prelims
Maryna Moroz (10-3) vs Mariya Agapova (10-2)
Women’s Flyweight (125)
Maryna Moroz (10-3) vs Mariya Agapova (10-2)
Women’s Flyweight (125)
- Agapova KO and UNDER ...Fairly risky call favoring the less consistent fighter in a division not known for finishes. The reasoning, however, is based on the bad blood between the two former training partners. Much like any Agapova match-up, it feels like it is her fight to lose. Freak emotional states and gas tank troubles have plagued her, but Agapova’s showing against Sabina Mazo was extremely impressive. The Demonslayer hits with a surprising pop and it was pleasing to see Agapova using setup traps to counter Mazo.
Nick Negumereanu (11-1) vs Kennedy Nzechukwu (9-2)
Light Heavyweight (205)
- Negumereanu ...A real car crash of a fight between two of the worst at LHW. Aside from Da Un Jung delivering a hellacious finish, Nzechukwu often survives an awkward round one to eventually get ahead on the feet. But, against Negumereanu who will not stop walking forward, I doubt Nzechukwu possesses a consistent enough counter game to catch the judge’s eyes.
Marina Rodriguez (15-1-2) vs Xiaonan Yan (13-2)
Women’s Strawweight (115)
Women’s Strawweight (115)
- Rodriguez and OVER ...Yan’s offensive wrestling may pose problematic for Rodriguez, but not enough to comfortably back her to wrestle her way to a decision. As seen against Mackenzie Dern, Rodriguez is more than capable of surviving on the mat. In a toe-to-toe battle on the feet, Rodriguez possesses far better fundamentals in timing and distance. I expect Yan’s inflated record to fall lower...most likely in a decision.
Jalin Turner (11-5) vs Jamie Mullarkey (14-4)
Lightweight (155)
- Turner Decision ...A freak size at LW, Turner uses his reach fairly well, but his powerful top game and incredible chin deserve most of the spotlight. Meanwhile, Mullarkey will try to close the distance and pressure with a hard-nosed bruising style that is far smarter than most give him credit. Worryingly, Mullarkey struggled to build striking layers against the superior reach of Fares Ziam. Turner will pose the same problem and it's difficult to see where the Aussie has developed enough to adapt. But this one is most likely very close.
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Like all those you just posted except for Turner. Gl bro
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Nice call on Nicolae!
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
He deserved it but probably should have lost...I'll take it!
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 272 - Main Card
Sergey Spivak (13-3) vs Greg Hardy (7-4)
Heavyweight (265)
Sergey Spivak (13-3) vs Greg Hardy (7-4)
Heavyweight (265)
- Hardy KO Round 1 ...Not much to break down. Hardy hits hard, can he hit hard enough and early enough before the takedown comes? Spivak has made a career of beating guys with no wrestling or grappling chops, lest they carry one-shot power. Hardy looked solid against Tuivasa before he ran into a hard counter. Upset special!
Kevin Holland (21-7) vs Alex Oliveira (22-11-1)
Middleweight (170)
Middleweight (170)
- Holland ITD ...At the respective stages of their careers, Holland has the upper hand despite the stylistic difficulties. Oliveira should be Holland’s kryptonite, a powerful, long-plus athlete who is capable of tearing apart opponents in the clinch. Oliveira’s waning durability, non-existent gas tank, and lack of confidence at range will allow Holland to take over the fight after the first round.
Edson Barboza (22-10) vs Bryce Mitchell (14-0)
Featherweight (145)
Featherweight (145)
- Mitchell ...Twilight Barboza has been an exceptionally tricky customer to predict. Whenever it appears that Barboza has athletically regressed, he delivers an ass-whooping (Dan Hooker, Makwan Amirkhani). On the feet, Mitchell is an underrated kickboxer and is capable of pursuing the timeless ‘press Barboza to the cage’. Ideally, Mitchell will want to make his clear grappling advantage show, but Barboza is a slippery customer. Barboza by brutal knockout or Mitchell to get creative on the mat. I'll back Bryce but he's only one kick away from going to sleep.
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
You got it right. Good job
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 272 - Co-Main Event
Rafael dos Anjos (30-13) vs Renato Moicano (16-4-1)
Catchweight (160)
Rafael dos Anjos (30-13) vs Renato Moicano (16-4-1)
Catchweight (160)
- RDA KO ...Just 3 days ago we almost got RDA vs Islam Makhachev, now, Dos Anjos gets a far more favorable match-up in Renato Moicano. Moicano is reminiscent of the type of fighter that RDA blasted through back in 2014-2015. Dos Anjos’ educated pressure on the feet will thoroughly expose Moicano’s lack of back-foot striking. While Moicano’s aggressive submissions would usually pose a threat, RDA is an impossible mountain. Add in Moicano’s questionable chin and the late-notice call-up and the result won't be pretty.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC 272 - Main Event
Colby Covington (16-3) vs Jorge Masvidal (35-15)
Welterweight (170)
Colby Covington (16-3) vs Jorge Masvidal (35-15)
Welterweight (170)
- Covington Decision ...Cardio kills. Colby’s everlasting gas tank is a stylistic nightmare for Jorge. Over 5 rounds, it's difficult to see Masvidal keeping himself on the feet, or more importantly, keeping his back off the cage. There is little reason to argue anything other than Colby racking up twenty-five minutes of control time. Masvidal may find occasional pockets of success, but not much more. Gamebred is exceptional at punishing kicks and still has the speed to close the distance on one of Colby’s telegraphed head kicks. Additionally, Masvidal is a stronger grappler with surprisingly solid TDD, but his lack of urgency to keep himself off the cage will be his undoing.
