UFC 268 Thoughts And Cauliflower Ears...

[Vapster]

Kamaru Usman

(-310) Vs.
Colby Covington

(+250)

Alright lets get right into the main event. First off I wanna say this about Colby Covington. If there was ever such a thing as collecting moral victories in defeat, Covington did that the first time he fought Kamaru Usman. Reason I even bring that up is because, when a fighter invests so much into his own image as Covington likes to do, it comes with the risk of being labeled a "clown" by some of us in the peanut gallery. The red "MAGA" hat. The Bad Boy image. The shit talking. The bravado. You either back it up, or you end up in the same boat as Conor McGregor where you get exposed and then start chasing what you lost with more fabricated antics outside the Octagon than redeeming yourself inside of it.

When it comes to everything that goes on inside of the Octagon, Colby Covington is no clown. The guy is a dog. He can fight. So with Colby, you gotta be careful of duping yourself into an overly emotional evaluation where picking against him is based solely on, "Well, I just don't like him." Listen I don't "like" asparagus but I'm not gonna pretend it isn't good for you. A lot of people didn't "like" Floyd Mayweather, at the end of the day he's still recognized as one of the best to ever do it. So what you "like" and don't like means DIDDLY POO when you're at the wagering window.
Here's the thing...

Don't ever try to bullshit a bullshitter.


I'm willing to recognize Colby Covington as a legitimate killer in the UFC. Again, whether or not I like him or agree with his character as a man, that's not gonna help me make the smart investment. Only thing I'm gonna do is speak on what my instincts are telling me and my instincts are telling me this dude (Colby Covington) is about to get fucked up.
I mean I'd love to jump all over that +250 price tag. Just because he is such a dog in the Octagon. But what I'm hearing when Colby goes into these loud, disrespectful tirades against Usman isn't as much as him selling an image as it is him trying to convince himself of something he doesn't necessarily believe himself. In other words, he wasn't "robbed" of anything the first time. The guy has made excuse after excuse after excuse, and there should be none. He got his ass whooped. Had Covington shut his mouth, went into the gym and humbled himself after Usman broke him the first time, I'd probably feel more comfortable picking him and taking the +250 underdog. But he didn't humble himself. He ran right into this mental mind game where he thinks he can somehow gain an advantage against an opponent (Usman) who is not only athletically superior than him, is not in the least bothered by Covington's antics.

I gotta be honest here. I think what's coming on Saturday night is a bigger ass whooping than the first one. Not only am I picking Usman. Give me the number on a 1st round TKO. Because I think, unlike the first fight, Usman is gonna skip the customary feeling out process and go right for the neck.

Confidence level: 4.9 Out Of 5
I'm taking Kamaru. I'm taking the under. NEXT!!!

 

[Vapster]

Rose Namajunas

(-105) Vs.
Weili Zhang

(-115)

Alright what we got here is basically pick 'em. Flip a coin, right? Interesting thing about rematches is a lot of times they're easier to call just because they'll resemble what happened the first time, especially when you put two sluggers in the ring together that have already engaged in a 3 round slobber knocker that goes the distance. Typically it'll happen again.

Unfortunately, that's not the case with "Thug" Rose Namajunas Vs. Weili Zhang where the first fight we only saw a glimpse before Rose went upstairs with a head kick and rang Zhang's bell! Highly doubtful she gets caught the same way again.
Here's my issue with Rose. Every time I look at her. All I see is she's gorgeous. I'm trying to find that wolf inside that never comes out until she's actually inside the Octagon and by that time, my bet has already been placed against her. Because to me she looks like an angel, not a UFC fighter. Rose is that fighter that throughout my history of wagering, when I bet against her she looks spectacular, when I ride with her she loses. Like she did against Jessica Andrade. Best approach for me is to pass on this fight, try to find value elsewhere but you know what? Again, I'm not gonna ignore my instincts.

I friggin' LOVE Weili Zhang in this spot. Now I'm aware that it's been a rough 2021 for Chinese fighters in the UFC, and she's coming off the head kick loss, and tons of money is gonna come in on Rose, but I'm willing to not learn from my mistakes and ride with Weili one more time. Because listen, you take that head kick away the first time, there's no telling how that fight would have gone. If we got 1-2 rounds where Rose was pressing, landing, sticking and moving, it would be much easier for me to use that as a blueprint and lean towards Namajunas. But I think this fight on Saturday night is gonna be a much more Zhang friendly, grinding, gritty, torrent pace. That will favor Weili.

Just a hunch.
Confidence level: 3.7 Out Of 5
I like Zhang. ANNNND NEW....

 

[Vapster]

Justin Gaethje

(-210) Vs.
Michael Chandler

(+175)

To me? This will be the 50K fight of the night. Lots of different routes to go with this one. Lets start with Justin. One of the absolute toughest guys in the UFC. Hands down. Cardio for days. Incredible durability. All of which screams "take the over!" And I don't think that's a bad bet at all. I could very easily see this thing going the full 3 rounds. But here's where it gets a little tricky. Justin is probably gonna get hit. He always gets hit. And if you run the tape on Michael Chandler absolutely BLASTING Dan Hooker into another dimension, with the understanding of just how good Hooker's chin was, it's not like Dan Hooker was some chandelier out there. Dan Hooker can take a wallop, and Chandler put his lights out real quick!

So there's that.

I think if you're on the Gaethje side of things at -210, prepare to have yourself a moment or two where it's gonna get real uncomfortable out there. You might have to weather a storm that rivals the one George Clooney and Marky the Mark Whalberg (your boy) didn't live through. Not only did Chandler starch Dan Hooker, he also had the Brazilian champ (Charles) Oliviera on queer street as well.

I think what very well could happen here is Chandler has moments, and gets multiple opportunities to mix in his wrestling, wrestling that we've really yet to see since he broke into the UFC. This might be his stage to do it on. And for that reason, there's no doubt I'll be looking to put a card together that has Chandler +175 on it. This is a LIVE dog my friends. I don't necessarily think it's a Chandler by KO spot, even though both Dustin Porier (TKO) and Eddie Alvarez (KO) were able to do it... so why not Chandler? I just think once Justin tastes the pop in Chandler's hands (and he will at some point), he (Gaethje) will most likely absorb it.
It's just frightening man. Because as much as I'm in on Justin Gaethje winning this fight at (-210), with those vicious leg kicks, how long before he gets caught? And what happens when he does get caught?

If I had to pick one? I'm gonna pick Justin. With the hopes that he can find Chandler early and often and weather the storm.
Confidence level: 3.0 Out Of 5
Great fight. But I'm telling you right now Chandler is absolutely worth a flier at these odds.

 

[Vapster]

Billy Quarantillo

(+165) Vs.
Shane Burgos

(-195)

Watched plenty of film on them both. Two high volume action fighters and the very first thing that jumps out at me when you tell me Billy Q. will be squaring up with Shane Burgos is take the over 2.5 (-167). The other thing that jumps out at me is classic battles under my dining room table with my GI Joe action figures. But that's neither here nor there.

Listen, these two guys are gonna go to war and I honestly don't think either of them is gonna KO/TKO the other. Could it happen? Sure. Anything could happen. But Burgos went 3 full rounds with Josh Emmett and that dude hits like a mule kick. Arguably one of the most feared strikers in the UFC without a big name.
Billy Q. went 3 full rounds with Gavin Tucker, so.... I'm far more comfortable taking the over in this fight than I am firing on the guy who I think is gonna win which is Shane Burgos. And you're getting better value. More bang for your buck, so to speak.

To me I just think Burgos is more seasoned. And I like Billy Q. He puts on a good show. Would I be shocked if Billy pulls the mild upset? Absolutely not. It's just nothing I'm feeling or visualizing is sending me that signal. Not getting any kind of hair up my ass to bet on Quarantillo. My instincts say it's Burgos. I trust my instincts. I have cat-like instincts and reflexes. Burgos just has incredible presence in the Octagon, he's a natural. Love his chin. He pushes the pace. I think this is one where he's too much for Billy.

Give me Burgos to win.
Confidence level: 3.8 Out Of 5
And I think he'll do it by decision. And fuck Mr. Robinson.

 

[Vapster]

Frankie Edgar

(+145) Vs.
Marlon Vera

(-170)

Alright so, many will remember Marlon Vera as the guy who, I don't wanna derailed the hype train they call Sugar Sean O'Malley, aka "The Sugar Show", but he definitely pulled the curtain on it. He (Vera) is 28 years old. He's from Chone, Ecuador. South American country. And the only reason I bring that up is because in the UFC I think bloodlines matter. You look at countries like Brazil. These fuckers can fight. There's a certain warrior mentality...

Not that North American countries can't fight because Mexico and us wankers have our fair share of gladiators. In fact I'd say Mexican fighters in the UFC are currently on the rise. They're coming. Mexico has always been more of a boxing based country but they're gradually learning this mixed martial arts shit and producing talent. But lets get back to the thing that I think is even more significant in this fight and it's age.

Look Frankie Edgar really needs no introduction. Guy is a legend in the UFC. He's fought everyone. But he's 40 years old. Little bit of a red flag there. You look at his resume, last fight he got smoked by Corey Sandhagen...

I wouldn't say Marlon Vera is anywhere near the caliber of Corey. Before that a split decision victory over Pedro Munhoz from Brazil who is a high level, tough SOB. Edgar went the distance with him and got the W. You know what that tells me. We got ourselves a LIVE dog here with Frankie Edgar at +145. And lets address something else. More and more we're seeing guys who can still fight at 40 years old. Just last week we watched 42 year old Glover Teixeira snatch the light heavyweight crown away from "The Polish Hammer" Jan Blachowicz. So lets not write these old guys off just yet. There's a ton of value in a legend like Frankie.
I think Marlon Vera is dangerous. Beat O'Malley. Beat Davey Grant. Lost to YaDong Song (even though I think he won that fight). Tough call here, folks. I mean I'm really chomping at the bit to take Frankie and that tasty +145. So here's what I'll do...
I'm gonna take Frankie.

Confidence Level: 2.9? 3.0? Out Of 5

I just think if we're gonna flip a measly $10-15 bucks into something much more lucrative, if this indeed is a "Hail Mary Parlay", these are the spots we gotta do it. Who is gonna frown on you for taking Frankie Edgar, really? Again, dude is a legend. And like my boy Khabib Nurmagomedov always says, "Wrestling is king". I would also look to take the over (-187) if you don't want as much risk. I just think if Vera does win, he probably gets a decision.

 

[B.A.R.]

Look at this guy!

Awesome stuff vapster

 

[Vapster]

CJ Vergara

(+155) Vs.
Ode Osbourne

(-180)

Alright lets kick off the night like this. When putting together a "Hail Mary Parlay" in an event like #UFC268, it's important to get out of the blocks on the right foot. You want that early momentum, Holmes. That good energy. And whereas I think it's critical to identify the barking (under)dogs on every single card, I just don't know if I'm ready to say CJ Vergara is one of them. I was on him early. Watched him impress on Dana White's Tuesday Night "Get Fucked By The Judges Series"

ERRRRRRRR.....I mean...
Contender Series...


I just think this is a spot where Vergara makes his UFC debut against a guy who may be a little too much too early. That's what my instincts are telling me right now. I do think there's some value on the Vergara side but again, I'd much rather play it safe and lean towards Ode Osbourne at -180, rather than risk killing my parlay with a talented kid who is somewhat of a "What's Behind Door #3?" option at this point. My instincts have flip flopped, waffled, since last Saturday night, talked to a few of my trusted sources in the business...

Give me Ode.

Confidence Level: 2.9 Out Of 5.

I certainly wouldn't hate a flier on the +155 underdog, tho. Vergara might very well be better than what's being advertised which is why the low confidence level. It's a betting mans nail biter to kick off the night, no other way around it.

 

[Vapster]

Here's another reason for the low 2.9 CL (Confidence Level). When you dig into Ode's resume, he's 1-2 in the UFC with losses to Manel Kape and Brian Kelleher respectively. Certainly no shame in either of those losses, those two guys are legit. But he (Ode) got starched in round 1 versus Kape, caught with a flying knee and it raises red flags in comparison to another fighter named Khama Worthy who might be cut from the same cloth as Ode where there's a ton of athletic upside, you just wonder if they might be a little chinny. And I don't like investing in chinny fighters man. It's scary. Because in the blink of an eye your night could be over. Been there, done that.

With all that said, I'm gonna stick with Ode on the grounds that he's got a Jamaican blood line and rather than compare him to Khama Worthy based on getting caught by a flying knee that might very well have KO'd 90% of the UFC roster, Jamaica also has put out products like Randy Brown and Aljamain Sterling who are top shelf UFC fighters and tend to be reliable. Again, I just don't know too much about CJ Vergara yet. Maybe he shines at #UFC268 and puts his name on the map, or maybe he's just another stepping stone for Ode Osbourne on his rise to the top.

 

[skanless13]

Great write ups. Agree on almost all these especially the 2 mains

 

[skanless13]

Kamaru Usman

(-310) Vs.
Colby Covington

(+250)

Alright lets get right into the main event. First off I wanna say this about Colby Covington. If there was ever such a thing as collecting moral victories in defeat, Covington did that the first time he fought Kamaru Usman. Reason I even bring that up is because, when a fighter invests so much into his own image as Covington likes to do, it comes with the risk of being labeled a "clown" by some of us in the peanut gallery. The red "MAGA" hat. The Bad Boy image. The shit talking. The bravado. You either back it up, or you end up in the same boat as Conor McGregor where you get exposed and then start chasing what you lost with more fabricated antics outside the Octagon than redeeming yourself inside of it.

When it comes to everything that goes on inside of the Octagon, Colby Covington is no clown. The guy is a dog. He can fight. So with Colby, you gotta be careful of duping yourself into an overly emotional evaluation where picking against him is based solely on, "Well, I just don't like him." Listen I don't "like" asparagus but I'm not gonna pretend it isn't good for you. A lot of people didn't "like" Floyd Mayweather, at the end of the day he's still recognized as one of the best to ever do it. So what you "like" and don't like means DIDDLY POO when you're at the wagering window.
Here's the thing...

Don't ever try to bullshit a bullshitter.


I'm willing to recognize Colby Covington as a legitimate killer in the UFC. Again, whether or not I like him or agree with his character as a man, that's not gonna help me make the smart investment. Only thing I'm gonna do is speak on what my instincts are telling me and my instincts are telling me this dude (Colby Covington) is about to get fucked up.
I mean I'd love to jump all over that +250 price tag. Just because he is such a dog in the Octagon. But what I'm hearing when Colby goes into these loud, disrespectful tirades against Usman isn't as much as him selling an image as it is him trying to convince himself of something he doesn't necessarily believe himself. In other words, he wasn't "robbed" of anything the first time. The guy has made excuse after excuse after excuse, and there should be none. He got his ass whooped. Had Covington shut his mouth, went into the gym and humbled himself after Usman broke him the first time, I'd probably feel more comfortable picking him and taking the +250 underdog. But he didn't humble himself. He ran right into this mental mind game where he thinks he can somehow gain an advantage against an opponent (Usman) who is not only athletically superior than him, is not in the least bothered by Covington's antics.

I gotta be honest here. I think what's coming on Saturday night is a bigger ass whooping than the first one. Not only am I picking Usman. Give me the number on a 1st round TKO. Because I think, unlike the first fight, Usman is gonna skip the customary feeling out process and go right for the neck.

Confidence level: 4.9 Out Of 5
I'm taking Kamaru. I'm taking the under. NEXT!!!

I really want Colby to win but I really don’t see it happening

 

[Vapster]

I'm not a "Juice" guy, and -300 is ALOT, so I would throw this one in on some parlays.:shake:

 

[skanless13]

I parlayed Usman with Alabama and Buffalo NFL

 

[Vapster]

Rose Namajunas

(-105) Vs.
Weili Zhang

(-115)

Alright what we got here is basically pick 'em. Flip a coin, right? Interesting thing about rematches is a lot of times they're easier to call just because they'll resemble what happened the first time, especially when you put two sluggers in the ring together that have already engaged in a 3 round slobber knocker that goes the distance. Typically it'll happen again.

Unfortunately, that's not the case with "Thug" Rose Namajunas Vs. Weili Zhang where the first fight we only saw a glimpse before Rose went upstairs with a head kick and rang Zhang's bell! Highly doubtful she gets caught the same way again.
Here's my issue with Rose. Every time I look at her. All I see is she's gorgeous. I'm trying to find that wolf inside that never comes out until she's actually inside the Octagon and by that time, my bet has already been placed against her. Because to me she looks like an angel, not a UFC fighter. Rose is that fighter that throughout my history of wagering, when I bet against her she looks spectacular, when I ride with her she loses. Like she did against Jessica Andrade. Best approach for me is to pass on this fight, try to find value elsewhere but you know what? Again, I'm not gonna ignore my instincts.

I friggin' LOVE Weili Zhang in this spot. Now I'm aware that it's been a rough 2021 for Chinese fighters in the UFC, and she's coming off the head kick loss, and tons of money is gonna come in on Rose, but I'm willing to not learn from my mistakes and ride with Weili one more time. Because listen, you take that head kick away the first time, there's no telling how that fight would have gone. If we got 1-2 rounds where Rose was pressing, landing, sticking and moving, it would be much easier for me to use that as a blueprint and lean towards Namajunas. But I think this fight on Saturday night is gonna be a much more Zhang friendly, grinding, gritty, torrent pace. That will favor Weili.

Just a hunch.
Confidence level: 3.7 Out Of 5
I like Zhang. ANNNND NEW....

Zhang is Fucking Relentless. I think she breaks Rose this time. I'll go as far as to say there's only one path to victory against a fighter like Weili and that's to hit her with a head kick that she doesn't see coming. What are the odds that happens again? Because if Rose wants to stand and trade with this machine I don't see her out volumeing Weili for a full 5 rounds. I do think she can make it the whole 5, I just don't think she wins on the cards.
I like Weili and the over.

 

[KJ]

Zhang is Fucking Relentless. I think she breaks Rose this time. I'll go as far as to say there's only one path to victory against a fighter like Weili and that's to hit her with a head kick that she doesn't see coming. What are the odds that happens again? Because if Rose wants to stand and trade with this machine I don't see her out volumeing Weili for a full 5 rounds. I do think she can make it the whole 5, I just don't think she wins on the cards.
I like Weili and the over.

That's the fight I'm most looking forward to

Usman outclasses Covington and rents space in his head, not like it can't go the other way but like you said, all the smoke and mirrors from Covington seems to be masking his insecurities. I mean any guy that should be representing anger management programs, needs to act Billy Badass in bars...how focused can he really be? Could be a warrior fight, but Usman should suck the will out of him. Again.

 

[Vapster]

I like Fight Starts Round 4. No. +120

That's a little more risky in that as I mentioned on the Weili/ Namajunas breakdown, a lot of times with rematches the blueprints are already written and the fights follow suit. Colby is a tough motherfucker. Lots on the line for him tonight. Big opportunity here. To me he's already validated himself, he gets this W and I think it's gonna be an awakening for a lot of the casuals. Who maybe don't recognize how good he truly is.

I see him. Most people hear him. Because he's a brash loud mouth trying to sell his own image. Underneath all that is a scrapper. Usman knows this as well. Off the record I think there's mutual respect between the two, on the record Colby is gonna try to be verbally disruptive. Talk about people's family and shit. It's a dangerous game to play. Just because you're basically pulling on Superman's cape when you do that. You see it in other sports as well.

Not sure I wanna dunk on Steve Kerr and scream at Michael Jordan. Not sure I wanna tackle Antonio Brown then tell Tom Brady "You ain't shit." Not sure I wanna get on stage and insult Kamaru Usman's father, either. But as the saying goes, "You will reap what you sow."

 

[Vapster]

Mountain Lion

(-7000) Vs.
Grey Wolf

(+810)

Alright listen. If this fight was to take place in the wild, where that wolf could possibly call on 10-12 of his cohorts to help him in the event he starts to get his asshole torn off, I'd at least entertain the +810 number. If this fight were to take place in the wild. But it's not. It's in the Octagon. You know what that means? When the cage door closes and the puma becomes aware that he's got nowhere to run and nowhere to hide, that wolf is gonna come face to face with an absolute nightmare.
It's not a fight it's a blood bath!!!

One that will require Herb Dean to call in a ring physician armed with a sponge to clean that god damn wolf off the canvas. This will end violently in the first round. That wolf is fucked. You put a cougar, a catamount in his natural environment, dollars to donuts the big cat runs away like a pussy. Wants no part of that wolf. You lock the mountain lion in a cage? It's game over.

I'm taking the cougar. Fuck the wolf.

Confidence level: 5.0 Out Of 5.

If the wolf wins, I'll post my dick pics here on CTG!

 

[Inspekdah]

Good stuff. Usman had never been hit that much in any fight. Don’t know the numbers but maybe by as much as 100 strikes? They were both landing bombs. I don’t think Usman wants to get tagged up if he doesn’t have. But his power has come such a long long way since the first fight. Colby is a dog for sure and I hope he wins but and I would have guaranteed that after the first fight but no way not anymore.

 

[skanless13]

How about Aardvark v Lemur

 

[Vapster]

How about Aardvark v Lemur

I Passed On It

 

[Vapster]

Justin Gaethje

(-210) Vs.
Michael Chandler

(+175)

To me? This will be the 50K fight of the night. Lots of different routes to go with this one. Lets start with Justin. One of the absolute toughest guys in the UFC. Hands down. Cardio for days. Incredible durability. All of which screams "take the over!" And I don't think that's a bad bet at all. I could very easily see this thing going the full 3 rounds. But here's where it gets a little tricky. Justin is probably gonna get hit. He always gets hit. And if you run the tape on Michael Chandler absolutely BLASTING Dan Hooker into another dimension, with the understanding of just how good Hooker's chin was, it's not like Dan Hooker was some chandelier out there. Dan Hooker can take a wallop, and Chandler put his lights out real quick!

So there's that.

I think if you're on the Gaethje side of things at -210, prepare to have yourself a moment or two where it's gonna get real uncomfortable out there. You might have to weather a storm that rivals the one George Clooney and Marky the Mark Whalberg (your boy) didn't live through. Not only did Chandler starch Dan Hooker, he also had the Brazilian champ (Charles) Oliviera on queer street as well.

I think what very well could happen here is Chandler has moments, and gets multiple opportunities to mix in his wrestling, wrestling that we've really yet to see since he broke into the UFC. This might be his stage to do it on. And for that reason, there's no doubt I'll be looking to put a card together that has Chandler +175 on it. This is a LIVE dog my friends. I don't necessarily think it's a Chandler by KO spot, even though both Dustin Porier (TKO) and Eddie Alvarez (KO) were able to do it... so why not Chandler? I just think once Justin tastes the pop in Chandler's hands (and he will at some point), he (Gaethje) will most likely absorb it.
It's just frightening man. Because as much as I'm in on Justin Gaethje winning this fight at (-210), with those vicious leg kicks, how long before he gets caught? And what happens when he does get caught?

If I had to pick one? I'm gonna pick Justin. With the hopes that he can find Chandler early and often and weather the storm.
Confidence level: 3.0 Out Of 5
Great fight. But I'm telling you right now Chandler is absolutely worth a flier at these odds.

:shake: Anyone Disagree With My This Will Be Fight Of The Night?! HO LY SHIT!

 

[Vapster]

CJ Vergara

(+155) Vs.
Ode Osbourne

(-180)

Alright lets kick off the night like this. When putting together a "Hail Mary Parlay" in an event like #UFC268, it's important to get out of the blocks on the right foot. You want that early momentum, Holmes. That good energy. And whereas I think it's critical to identify the barking (under)dogs on every single card, I just don't know if I'm ready to say CJ Vergara is one of them. I was on him early. Watched him impress on Dana White's Tuesday Night "Get Fucked By The Judges Series"

ERRRRRRRR.....I mean...
Contender Series...


I just think this is a spot where Vergara makes his UFC debut against a guy who may be a little too much too early. That's what my instincts are telling me right now. I do think there's some value on the Vergara side but again, I'd much rather play it safe and lean towards Ode Osbourne at -180, rather than risk killing my parlay with a talented kid who is somewhat of a "What's Behind Door #3?" option at this point. My instincts have flip flopped, waffled, since last Saturday night, talked to a few of my trusted sources in the business...

Give me Ode.

Confidence Level: 2.9 Out Of 5.

I certainly wouldn't hate a flier on the +155 underdog, tho. Vergara might very well be better than what's being advertised which is why the low confidence level. It's a betting mans nail biter to kick off the night, no other way around it.

:shake:

 

[Vapster]

Billy Quarantillo

(+165) Vs.
Shane Burgos

(-195)

Watched plenty of film on them both. Two high volume action fighters and the very first thing that jumps out at me when you tell me Billy Q. will be squaring up with Shane Burgos is take the over 2.5 (-167).

Listen, these two guys are gonna go to war and I honestly don't think either of them is gonna KO/TKO the other. Could it happen? Sure. Anything could happen. But Burgos went 3 full rounds with Josh Emmett and that dude hits like a mule kick. Arguably one of the most feared strikers in the UFC without a big name.
Billy Q. went 3 full rounds with Gavin Tucker, so.... I'm far more comfortable taking the over in this fight than I am firing on the guy who I think is gonna win which is Shane Burgos. And you're getting better value. More bang for your buck, so to speak.

To me I just think Burgos is more seasoned. And I like Billy Q. He puts on a good show. Would I be shocked if Billy pulls the mild upset? Absolutely not. It's just nothing I'm feeling or visualizing is sending me that signal. Not getting any kind of hair up my ass to bet on Quarantillo. My instincts say it's Burgos. I trust my instincts. I have cat-like instincts and reflexes. Burgos just has incredible presence in the Octagon, he's a natural. Love his chin. He pushes the pace. I think this is one where he's too much for Billy.

Give me Burgos to win.
Confidence level: 3.8 Out Of 5
And I think he'll do it by decision. And fuck Mr. Robinson.

Shit... It's ALMOST Like I Can See The Future...Over? Win?!
Fuck...
Call Me "BIFF"
:shake: