UFC 261 Picks

Andy

Pretty much a regular
2021 Record
17-8 +4.68 units

SEKULIC +175

This is a bit of a fade of Grant at an over-inflated price. Grappler-striker battle though while grant is a heavy hitter he has a bad fight iq, iffy cardio, and doesn't throw with much volume. think theres a solid shot of sekulic controlling this with his wrestling and grinding one out....if he can get it to the ground and avoid that ko. some worry with sekulic being out a couple yrs, but hey thats why we are getting solid plus odds here.

CRUTE -200

Like what we've seen from crute here recently, he's a fighter on the come. think he will bring it to smith, and smith is someone who tends to struggle with pressure. smith would prefer to keep this at range. i imagine this is close early, maybe even smith takes round one but smith tends to slow down and i think crute can take over. smith not great at take down defense if crute wants to go that route as he is a decent wrestler.


looking at a couple more plays on the prelims...
 
adding:
PARLAY RONG/BATGEREL +109 (to win a unit)

Both the lines a hair wide for me to play straight up but i like both these guys. Rong a striker with a lot of hype though we just don't know about some of these chinese fighters yet, not a lot of tape and the competition is questionable but this dude has been mowing guys down. Vargas will give him more of a test than he's seen but he seems to find ways to lose/low fight iq.
Batgerel is another heavy hitter whose gonna look to bang and keep this standing vs natividad. this is a play on batgerel having better durability/chin than natividad. natividad might try to drag this to the mat but dunno if he will be able to.
 
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strong lean on sabatini, almost threw him into a parlay too. connelly is cutting down 2 weight classes and looked iffy on the scales. wide line makes sense to me anyway.

allen/roberson and brown/oliveira seem like coinflips...dog or pass situations.

main card looks favorite heavy outside of hall/weidman. lean weidman, though he's winning till he isn't with that chin. do think namajunas is live in the early rounds vs zhang.
 
I never win parlays. But I saved some cash not betting rong straight up. Disappointing debut for him.
 
Andy. What are your thoughts on the Zhang Rose fight?
Rose will give Zhang all she wants. She hits harder than jj. Zhang is super tough though, if rose doesn't get it done early Zhang prob holds on for a decision. I don't think laying 2-1 is the best idea, it's rose or nothing. I'm rooting for rose.
 
Wow. Feel like I was robbed with Sekukic. Why betting dogs is tough. Split decisions rarely go their way.
 
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