UFC 258 ~ VEGAS

[mrpickem]

Great main I been looking forward to today. The rest of the card is OK but not great.

Finish up last week, barely but still working from a hole this year.

MY 2021 UFC CARDS...

FEB 06 11-11 +2u
JAN 16 4-15 -30.88u
JAN 20 15-14 +15.52u
JAN 23 10-13 -2.9u
----------------------
TOTAL 40-53 -16.26u

 

[mrpickem]

Here's a few I like...

• Gilbert Burns +240 ...Usman’s main game is wrestling. That is where he excels. Tonight this element to his game will be off the table since Burns possesses world class BJJ and high level wrestling capabilities himself. If Burns wants to take the fight to the ground he has the option to do so but I do not believe that option is there for Usman. Usman more than likely will want to keep the fight standing. On the feet I see Usman as the crisper striker with Burns having a little more pop. I see Burns having the potential to hurt Usman. The only way I see Usman getting this done is out pointing Burns on the feet. I think it is telling when the fight was made it was Usman who decided to change gyms. These guys trained everyday together, they both know who has the edge. Usually the challenger leaves but being that Usman left, that tells me he realizes he is at a disadvantage. He left to go train with Trevor(a striking coach) so I think he realizes it’s going to be a standup fight in which he will have to be the sharper standup fighter. What makes Usman so good is his elite wrestling. When you take that part of his game away I want no part of him. Now Burns is far from a lock, but at +240 I’m all over it.
• Julian Marquez -150 ...This is a fantastic stylistic match up for the cuban missile. Julian is a borderline LHW, and is a natural pressure fighter/brawler who is very adept at controlling range and forcing his opponent to either engage, circle out or get pinned on the fence. Although Julian is very hittable (due to lack of head movement and a loose guard), his huge hard ass head overcomes this weakness and his strategy is often "take one give one" due to his power and durability. Although Julian is not a natural wrestler, he has shown very good grappling endurance/cardio in his past fights, and great submission ability when people try to take him down. Maki is not a UFC level fighter at the MW division. He is small and one dimensional. He's a striker who only does well when he's able to move forward and fight off his front foot, but there is little chance he will be able to do this against Julian. I expect Julian to beat up Maki on the feet while bringing non-stop pressure, and I see Maki eventually shooting for a bad take-down on the fence and getting guillotined again. Keep in mind, Maki got submitted by Darren Stewart in this exact manner, who had ZERO submissions in his career before then, and Julian actually finished Darren Stewart using the same strategy. The only question marks for me coming into this fight is the potential ring-rust/injury recovery for Julian.
• Mallory Martin -120 ...This is pretty straightforward in my opinion. Both ladies are not that great on the feet. The striking is rather rudimentary, but if I had to pick one I’d say Viana is the better striker. She has the size advantage and seems to have the slightly crisper striking. However, she does leave her chin out quite a bit when she throws. I don’t think this will be a big factor though since I think this fight will be won and lost on the ground. Viana is a jiu jitsu world champ, but I’m not really buying it. It seems she’s really only subbing low level fighters. The reason I’m taking Martin here is because I she’s the better wrestler. I trust her to be able to take the fight to the ground and hold Viana there. I believe she is the stronger fighter, and the fact that Viana is content to hunt submissions off her back makes me believe that if the fight goes to a decision that Martin will get the nod. That said though, Viana is dangerous on the ground and Martin will have to be careful not to leave an arm exposed for Viana to snatch up that arm bar. I wish there were prop bets for the type of submission because I would definitely hedge with Viana by arm bar. Also I do want to note that while Martin did get subbed by Jandiroba, I think that Jandiroba is a way better BJJ practitioner than Viana and is much stronger.
• Gabe Green ITD and Under 2.5 ...Green is an aggressive fighter. He likes to move forward and pressure opponents and puts on a pretty crazy pace. He’s also extremely hittable. In his fight with Rodriguez he landed 127 significant strikes but took 175 significant strikes himself. He’s also been knocked out twice in his career. Green also seems to have a decent submission game too but he prefers to strike. Rowe on the other hand, is a pretty low output counter striker. I’m not sure if he’s chinny or not, but him getting stunned by Leon Shahbazyan in his last fight was not a good look. Especially since that was the first “legit” fighter he’s gone against (dude’s been beating up cans up until then). I think theres a decent chance that the pressure Green puts on can get to Rowe early. If my suspicion of Rowe being chinny is true then this will be a short night for him. Green may also be live for the submission if he decides to take the fight to the ground (unlikely though). However if Rowe getting stunned in that last fight was a fluke then I think he may be live to knock Green out. Again Green is extremely hittable. Despite Rowe’s low output, Green will leave plenty of openings for Rowe to land clean. So I believe the under is stronger but I definitely like Green more because of experience.
  
  
  

 

[mrpickem]

​	first up...​
	1901 Gabe Green -130 vs Philip Rowe 2.6/2 1901 Gabe Green/Philip Rowe Under 2½ -127 3.81/3

Either they cancelled the Maverick fight or I missed it. I definitely like Miranda...likely by decision. Oh well I relly like this one too. Let's go!

 

[mrpickem]

​	Fight 2​
	1803 Ewell / Gutierrez goes 3 round distance -185 vs Fight won’t go 3 round distance 1.11/.6 802 Chris Gutierrez -125 vs Andre Ewell 1.50/1.2

 

[skanless13]

​	first up...​
	1901 Gabe Green -130 vs Philip Rowe 2.6/2 1901 Gabe Green/Philip Rowe Under 2½ -127 3.81/3

Either they cancelled the Maverick fight or I missed it. I definitely like Miranda...likely by decision. Oh well I relly like this one too. Let's go!

It got canceled. Sucks because I was going to have a HUGE play on Maverick.

Burns is a VERY live dog.
GL with your plays.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Let's go leg kicks

Let's go

Just like last fight

Let's go

 

[mrpickem]

added

1802 Chris Gutierrez* -127 vs Andre Ewell
2.5/1.97

 

[mrpickem]

​	[3-1 +1.96u]
	1702 Mallory Martin -105 vs Polyana Viana 1.47 /1.4

Honestly I was liking Mallory even more, but the line movement has me a little apprehensive.

 

[mrpickem]

actually gonna flip on this one

1701 Polyana Vian* -110 vs Mallory Martin
3/2.73

 

[mrpickem]

​	[4-1 +3.22u]
	1642 Muhammad points handicap -3½ -225 vs Lima points handicap any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter 4.5/2

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Solid approach to fight. Gl

 

[mrpickem]

​	[5-1 +5.22u]
	1509 Vieira wins inside distance -260 vs Not Vieira inside distance 3.25/1.25 1542 Vieira points handicap -3½ -350 vs Hernandez points handicap any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter 2.1/.6

 

[mrpickem]

​	[5-3 -0.13u]​
	1402 Julian Marquez -155 vs Maki Pitolo 6.2/4

 

[mrpickem]

​	[6-3 +3.87u]​
	1302 Ricky Simon -245 vs Brian Kelleher 2.45/1

 

[mrpickem]

​	[7-3 +4.87u]
	1201 Ian Heinisch +170 vs Kelvin Gastelum 1.2/2.04

 

[mrpickem]

​	[7-4+3.67u]
	1001 Gilbert Burns +248 vs Kamaru Usman 2.25/5.58