UFC 251 ~ Paige's Last Dance
- Thread starter mrpickem
- Start date
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Amanda Ribas- Paige VanZant
What's up with the disrespect Paige is getting from the books for this fight? I do get it and I don't expect to see Paige winning this one either, but the difference between her and Ribas is definitely not that big. Because of her recent celebrity appearances and her imminent departure from the UFC, it's dangerous to forget that Paige is way more than just a pretty face.
She might not be an amazing fighter, but she is alright. More important than that, she is tough as nails. That's right...she can take a punch in the face, just as well as she can take pictures in a very small bikini for her Instagram. Look at her record. She only lost by decision, or by getting chocked. I don't consider losing by a choke a testament for you not being tough. You get choked, you tap, period. Bad luck, try again next time. It's not a sign of weakness.
You look at Ribas, and she is not much of a finisher either. Most of her fights went to a decision, and the same is the case for PVZ. Another important thing to consider is that this is probably Paige's last fight in the UFC. She doesn't want to go out staring at the lights. She will want to go out on her feet, waiting for the judge's decision. I really believe she gets to that.
I just don't see Ribas finishing her, to be honest. So I am definitely taking this fight over and to go the distance. Feels like a strong play, but I'm just touching it a little for now.
What's up with the disrespect Paige is getting from the books for this fight? I do get it and I don't expect to see Paige winning this one either, but the difference between her and Ribas is definitely not that big. Because of her recent celebrity appearances and her imminent departure from the UFC, it's dangerous to forget that Paige is way more than just a pretty face.
She might not be an amazing fighter, but she is alright. More important than that, she is tough as nails. That's right...she can take a punch in the face, just as well as she can take pictures in a very small bikini for her Instagram. Look at her record. She only lost by decision, or by getting chocked. I don't consider losing by a choke a testament for you not being tough. You get choked, you tap, period. Bad luck, try again next time. It's not a sign of weakness.
You look at Ribas, and she is not much of a finisher either. Most of her fights went to a decision, and the same is the case for PVZ. Another important thing to consider is that this is probably Paige's last fight in the UFC. She doesn't want to go out staring at the lights. She will want to go out on her feet, waiting for the judge's decision. I really believe she gets to that.
I just don't see Ribas finishing her, to be honest. So I am definitely taking this fight over and to go the distance. Feels like a strong play, but I'm just touching it a little for now.
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mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal
We know all the arguments that are in Usman's favor. We know why the bookies love him so much here, and why his odds are so low. But let's focus on Jorge for a second. Let's use our imagination a bit and think about how the odds for this fight would have looked if Masvidal wouldn't have taken this fight on short notice. Would Usman still be the favorite? Mayby, but likely close to pick. Masvidal looked like a killer against Till, Askren and Diaz. The crazy part is that I don't think we have seen the best version of him, yet. Mas was preparing for this fight until a few weeks ago, when the deal for fell through. That's when Burns got thrown into the mix. So all the arguments about him not being ready, or not having trained enough for this are bullshit. Besides this, we had reports that said that he continued to train even after the deal failed. So this guy is ready. He is fit and him and his camp prepared for Usman! On paper it's one week's notice, but if we look at the full background story, Jorge is very prepared for this fight. Let's think about what this fight means for both fighters... For Usman, everything is on the line, he's the champ and he is defending it in the main-event of maybe one of the most historical UFC events of all-time. Yes sure, winning is hella important, but think about the pressure as well. He is the guy with everything to lose, here. He is not a golden goose like Masvidal is. He is not a moneymaker. I'm not saying that this is his last shot of remaining relevant, because it's definitely not, but he is going to have an uphill climb in Dana's eyes if Mas goes over. All that pressure will surely accumulate come fight night, and I'm not sure how Usman deals with it. In the other corner you have Masvidal, who really has nothing to lose. I will always fear the guy with nothing to lose way more than the one with everything to lose. Mas already got his money for this fight, everything else is just a bonus for him. Yeah, Usman has great stamina, an amazing wrestler and he can definitely grind out a win. But we haven't see him in similar wars that we know Masvidal can put him through. What happens to his stamina and wrestling abilities, if Mas gives him a serious early beating? We know that Mas is not a slow-starter. He is balls to the wall from the first second of the first round and he surely knows that Usman is someone who likes to take his time and pick his opponents apart. I can't see Mas allowing him to do that . I expect a lot of early aggression from him. The odds for Usman are definitely inflated. For me, there is absolutely no value on that side. I don't consider him to be the better fighter between those two, and I also know that Masvidal is not as unprepared for this fight as the bookies suggest with their odds. You saw Masvidal's last fights and you know that it only takes one shot for him to end it. You're laying huge chalk on Usman to profit here. Do you really want to do that, when you know that the other guy can be dominated for 4-5 rounds, then end it in a second? That's the thing with the UFC. You can never be profitable long-term betting big favs. Yeah, Usman may win, but there is ZERO value betting on him. I may have other angles here that do not involve Masvidal winning for those of you who don't favor him to take this one. I'm not betting this, but if you take Usman, take him to win by decision. I don't see him finishing Masvidal, and there is also no reason to bet on that small moneyline.
| Small token plays for now, but this may be a pounder come fight night | |
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wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
I love women
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
At times she can look not so hott and other times she's Super hottone thing for sure, Perry brings entertainment...one way or another
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mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| [4-3+6.43] | |
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Odds stretched in the next bout… Amirkhani is basically a one trick pony, always looking to get the fight to the ground. Henry has decent takedown D and a high striking output to boot. Henry did lose his last matchup vs Dan Ige by rear-naked choke but Ige has proven himself to be a top contender in the division. If Henry can keep the fight standing he has a good chance of winning this fight and we're get good odds. Worth a small shot on Henry
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Now the playtime is over, lets get real and make some coin
| [4-8 -8.53] | |
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mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[5-10 -10.93]
Jose Aldo VS Petr Yan
Give some respect to Aldo… This is wild to see him a large underdog. Yan has looked impressive but he hasn’t fought the caliber of fighters that Aldo has, nor does he have the championship experience that Aldo has. Expecting a striking battle between these two that has Aldo start to get the better of the exchanges into the championship rounds. It may be too much too fast for Yan in this moment and Aldo is able to capitalize on his experience against the up and coming Yan. Too much value, auto-play
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Jose Aldo VS Petr Yan
- Aldo +207
6.7/13.87
Give some respect to Aldo… This is wild to see him a large underdog. Yan has looked impressive but he hasn’t fought the caliber of fighters that Aldo has, nor does he have the championship experience that Aldo has. Expecting a striking battle between these two that has Aldo start to get the better of the exchanges into the championship rounds. It may be too much too fast for Yan in this moment and Aldo is able to capitalize on his experience against the up and coming Yan. Too much value, auto-play
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mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| [5-12-25.63] | |
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