UFC 12 on ESPN @ The Apex
- Thread starter mrpickem
- Start date
cogenman
Raider Nation for Life
What's the guy's name that you're talking about?
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
random bs
Looks like only 10 fights tonight starting at 6
- Dustin Poirier -220 - Poirier likely has the answer for Dan Hooker brings to the table. Dustin has taken the leg kicks from Gaethje, volume from Max Holloway, and power from Eddie Alvarez, Gaethje, and Pettis (all of which are probably hit harder than Dan). You must agree that Dustin has dealt with much greater adversity than what Dan Hooker threatens...or so it appears. Remember: Felder vs Hooker. At the end of R1 Felder’s coach says, “look. These 1 to 2 punch combos are not going to work on a guy like Dan who relies on leaning and circling (much like James Vick). It’s going to take 3-4 punch combinations to be able to have the chance to land a bomb on this guy.” Solid advice, and stringing together these cross-cage straight/hook combinations is something Poirier has perfected. Also we seen a substantial drop off for Hooker’s power after round 3 in the Felder fight. His leg kicks weren’t heavy and he wasn’t fully committing to them due to Felder’s counter-striking (insert clip of Dustin answering Gaethje’s telegraphed leg kick with the shot the ultimately brought an end to the fight in Round 4). Also, Hookers jab became more of a “hey, stay away from me” defensive punch versus the popping jab seen in earlier rounds. I just can't imagine Hooker out-jabbing Dustin Poirier, who is arguably the cleanest boxer in the division. Dustin will answer small shots with solid combinations, even in late rounds. Hooker better start keeping his hands up. Both super durable and wont quit but I could see late finish or even descision for Dustin.
- Hooke/Poirier - starts R3 -170 or starts R4 -117 - I think this easily reaches the 3rd and most likely the 4th because these are two pretty high level guys. They’ll likely take a more measured approach here, especially since this is a 5 round fight. I don’t think either guy will want to over commit in the first few rounds and risk getting gassed. Poirier has shown he can go 5 rounds vs Max (a cardio machine), but he
did start a little quick and needed to take a breather round 3. So I think he’ll start a little slower, especially against Hooker, who is very tough. Also, Poirier has a solid high guard, making it tougher for Hooker to land clean shots early. I see the same happening with Hooker...He went 5 rounds with Felder but started to look a little tired midway and progressively looked worse as the fight went on. I think Hooker will make adjustments and slow the pace down a little. I just don’t see this fight ending in the early rounds. This will likely be a 5 round war or a TKO win for Poirier if Hooker gets too fatigued in the later rounds. - Greene ITD -130 - This line is absurd. Greene is a far bigger man, and he throws more volume and variety. Villante was knocked out in his last fight by a body shot from a guy who could fight at middleweight. I would not be surprised ifd this one ends in the 1st round. Gian stays standing and throws one-two punches. He pushes forward without throwing much. I don't know how he eats the high kicks from Greene, and Greene even has a 4.5" reach advantage to go with the stronger power. Villante is coming off almost a year long layoff.
- Perry by TKO -160 - Classic striker vs grappler matchup, and Perry is a much better striker than Gall is grappler. Gall has poor cardio, and he throws sloppy punches leaving himself open and off balance. While this fight is standing, Perry is going to have his way. He's much faster, stronger, and has better technique. Perry has solid takedown defense, and he will wear Gall out by the 2nd round. Unless Gall gets Perry to the mat in the 1st, I don't see how he wins this fight. The wildcard here is that Perry will only have his girlfriend in his corner. I'm not sure what that means if he gets cut or injured, but I doubt he takes much damage. The only way I see Gall winning is by submission, so I guess that could be a decent hedge bet at +425. With Perry being -310, I like the KO or ITD as better value.
- Peña by Sub +220 - If this was boxing, I may be concerned about Worthy's left hook. He throws a heavy left, and he has decent speed with his hands. Peña struggles more when pressure is applied to him, but I don't see Worthy pushing forward. He'll be looking to throw a counter with his left hook. There's a chance it lands and puts Peña to sleep, but I dont see it as likely. Peña has a much larger arsenal in his fight game. He could TKO Worthy with a flying knee or knees out of the thai clench, but the smart thing would be to take the fight to the mat. If he does that, he'll win with his strong ground and pound game or take Worthy's back and submit him. Good value on the sub.
Looks like only 10 fights tonight starting at 6
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
fucking getting ugly....hard to comeback at these odds when you like favs but maybe I can get closer
fukn cunt greene fought terrible and did not deserve to win but shit happen...definite fade material next time out
fukn cunt greene fought terrible and did not deserve to win but shit happen...definite fade material next time out
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