UCLA?

Peeking the schedule...

Two auto losses to top 5 teams and likely moved into the top 25 at some point. UNLV is no joke. That should be a heckuva game.

Despite the rivalry aspect, I have USC being better overall this year. But, you never know.

They play two bad teams on the road (NW and MSU).

I have Nebraska as a fringe T25 team at the end of the season.

They are going to have to win most of the games vs the bad teams and the middle tier teams (Washington and Maryland). Add in New Mexico.

Now, last year at this time many of us thought UCLA was a joke. Foster presser at the big ten media days was something else!

But, as the season commenced this team was a pleasant surprise!

I love how hard this team worked and didn't quit in games, even down multiple scores. The game at PSU really showed me their moxy. Credit to head coach Foster.

Tough bet imo. I'll revisit this after I hear your thoughts @spottie2935
 
@B.A.R.

Everything you said about last season has my eye on them. It’s 4 bets, and 3 +money bets for me.

Bet one is the season wins over 5.5 at +135
Bet two is week 1 is @+200
Bet 3 is a dab on 25-1 they make the bracket
Bet 4 is +6 vs Utah.


There is no way I could have imagined Indy last season making the bracket either. Break Indy down preseason game by game last year? It’s difficult.

Most of you guys are much better at breaking down the players and offense and defenses. Transfers in and out. I approach it with previous seasons, previous lines. Momentum, elevation. Finally news in UCLA land.

The way Indy did it was most likely the way to do it. Schedule .500 or below teams. Destroy them, stay elevated and remain favorites. It’s not setting up this way for UCLA but we don’t know the ceiling at this point either. All we know is there’s a news story on a QB that some people despise because of the narrative.

What UCLA did last season was enough to start this discussion. Nico is the addition that elevates them past 5.5 wins for sure.

All of the sudden out of nowhere I’m supposed to believe that Nico is a problem at Tennessee? Where was the lead up? No news prior?

To me it smells like a narrative! That’s my angle.

Over 5.5 wins I think is a sure thing
Week 1 winner over a team that lost their way last season due to injuries and a 3rd string QB in a few games. Now Utah goes out desperately for a QB to New Mexico? The guy threw 12 picks and 12 TDs the last 2 years. Yes okay he’s a running qb from the mountain west! Try that b.s. in the Big 10. Okay fine a lot are going to say ucla is at the bottom of the big 10. fact, in previous seasons. On the other hand, points are being seen about the qualities of UCLA and I stand behind them. Then Add in Nico? Sure he is young and has flaws too. As dogs he doesn’t have to leap points just win. As favorites they should dominate lesser opponents.

After what UCLA showed last season why on Earth wouldn’t they spend the money they did on Nico. UCLA is fully invested in this season and 4.5 is too low when adding A Nico to the team

I expect elevation no matter the schedule. That’s it nothing further.

To anyone else reading this I’m not a favorite guy. I try to win + money bets with a keen eye. Adding Nico is a signal I can’t ignore.

If I lose, I lose confidently. They didn’t pluck this guy randomly. Don’t ignore this.

UCLA over +5.5
UCLA +6 week 1
UCLA +200 week 1
UCLA to make the bracket 25-1

This is a must win for UCLA if they are going to be favorites this season and get the ball rolling. A loss I just can’t see it. If they lose this game do you know what the outcry will be on Nico? Sports transactions don’t happen to kill A guy in the media. They already killed him for this move. Now it’s show the world time.

They created a story and something the talking heads will be talking about all week, all season possibly.

Lastly obviously I’m not a writer, I’m not a typer nor do I care. I do my best to share good info and possibly good winning situations.

Best wishes to all.
 
Last edited:
How about Utah as a favorite not at home

In the photo you will see at a line not as high as -9 they barely are .500 straight up, since 2006. In the past, They have had some great seasons too.

16-33-1 ATS
 

Attachments

  • IMG_4339.jpeg
    IMG_4339.jpeg
    181.1 KB · Views: 7
Last edited:
spottie2935 said:
Thoughts? Over 5.5 +135 wins. Has potential
Click to expand...
Yeah, I see potential.
Coach in his 2nd year, last being his 1st as a head coach. New OC learned from Cignette. Last year had Indy, LSU, Ore, and Penn St in a four game stretch, ouch! Went 4-3 in one score games. Did OK traveling cross country like to Rutgers unlike USC and Washington 0-10 ats and 1-9 SU on the road.
New QB, defense with decent portal help, only 2 returning starters.
 
spottie2935 said:
@B.A.R.

Everything you said about last season has my eye on them. It’s 4 bets, and 3 +money bets for me.

Bet one is the season wins over 5.5 at +135
Bet two is week 1 is @+200
Bet 3 is a dab on 25-1 they make the bracket
Bet 4 is +6 vs Utah.


There is no way I could have imagined Indy last season making the bracket either. Break Indy down preseason game by game last year? It’s difficult.

Most of you guys are much better at breaking down the players and offense and defenses. Transfers in and out. I approach it with previous seasons, previous lines. Momentum, elevation. Finally news in UCLA land.

The way Indy did it was most likely the way to do it. Schedule .500 or below teams. Destroy them, stay elevated and remain favorites. It’s not setting up this way for UCLA but we don’t know the ceiling at this point either. All we know is there’s a news story on a QB that some people despise because of the narrative.

What UCLA did last season was enough to start this discussion. Nico is the addition that elevates them past 5.5 wins for sure.

All of the sudden out of nowhere I’m supposed to believe that Nico is a problem at Tennessee? Where was the lead up? No news prior?

To me it smells like a narrative! That’s my angle.

Over 5.5 wins I think is a sure thing
Week 1 winner over a team that lost their way last season due to injuries and a 3rd string QB in a few games. Now Utah goes out desperately for a QB to New Mexico? The guy threw 20 picks the last 2 years. Yes okay he’s a running qb from the mountain west! Try that b.s. in the Big 10. Okay fine a lot are going to say ucla is at the bottom of the big 10. fact, in previous seasons. On the other hand, points are being seen about the qualities of UCLA and I stand behind them. Then Add in Nico? Sure he is young and has flaws too. As dogs he doesn’t have to leap points just win. As favorites they should dominate lesser opponents.

After what UCLA showed last season why on Earth wouldn’t they spend the money they did on Nico. UCLA is fully invested in this season and 4.5 is too low when adding A Nico to the team

I expect elevation no matter the schedule. That’s it nothing further.

To anyone else reading this I’m not a favorite guy. I try to win + money bets with a keen eye. Adding Nico is a signal I can’t ignore.

If I lose, I lose confidently. They didn’t pluck this guy randomly. Don’t ignore this.

UCLA over +5.5
UCLA +6 week 1
UCLA +200 week 1
UCLA to make the bracket 25-1

This is a must win for UCLA if they are going to be favorites this season and get the ball rolling. A loss I just can’t see it. If they lose this game do you know what the outcry will be on Nico? Sports transactions don’t happen to kill A guy in the media. They already killed him for this move. Now it’s show the world time.

They created a story and something the talking heads will be talking about all week, all season possibly.

Lastly obviously I’m not a writer, I’m not a typer nor do I care. I do my best to share good info and possibly good winning situations.

Best wishes to all.
Click to expand...
Thanks for all of this!
 
I just double checked my data on Dampier. I was wrong I added the the combined totals to 2024 which is included already

He has 18 passing TDs and 12 picks. Last season 12 and 12. Tons of rushing yards for an average of 7 yds a pop and 19 rushing TDs last season. Completely athletic freak. Not accurate though and if he gets banged up ? UCLA is bigger faster stronger that his conference foes from last year. If he can only complete 58% of his passes at New Mexico, good luck here.

My opinion he looks to run first but I have not seen him play. The stats tell me he knows his bread and butter and confidence are running the ball. UCLA has all kinda tape and may need a quarter or a half to choke him out. If he is struggling passing and making first downs passing? I mean it’s his first game with a new team. Playing big 10 ball. He’s mistake prone already. This is a dog team now not A -6 road chalk. The books sneaking this one in here. I call BS
 
I don't know what to expect from Utah's offense this year. BAR has seen Damp more than anyone here is think. I think he's got the tools around him to be pretty successful in this offense and it's the same OC that he had at UNM.

They picked up two good RB's as well. Teams will have to crowd the LOS against them imho
 
Two Utes said:
I don't know what to expect from Utah's offense this year. BAR has seen Damp more than anyone here is think. I think he's got the tools around him to be pretty successful in this offense and it's the same OC that he had at UNM.

They picked up two good RB's as well. Teams will have to crowd the LOS against them imho
Click to expand...
All fair points as I said breaking down the line of scrimmage and keep track of so many teams and rosters. There are going to be some cappers more in the know than I.

my points are:

1)the dog line and the 4 million dollar experienced quarterback getting points.

2) UCLA 2024 showed me something. It appears to me they could really build into something this season.

Still week one and I have questions too just like any other matchup.

thanks for the post.
 
Two Utes said:
I don't know what to expect from Utah's offense this year. BAR has seen Damp more than anyone here is think. I think he's got the tools around him to be pretty successful in this offense and it's the same OC that he had at UNM.

They picked up two good RB's as well. Teams will have to crowd the LOS against them imho
Click to expand...
This is the key and how they solve it elevates Utah but if they crowd the LOScrimmage and he can’t elevate past his previous season passing data?

I’ll love Utah as a dog. Typically this is where they get the job done. Love a good run team that all they need to do is keep it close, control the ball, and let the clock roll.
 
spottie2935 said:
This is the key and how they solve it elevates Utah but if they crowd the LOScrimmage and he can’t elevate past his previous season passing data?

I’ll love Utah as a dog. Typically this is where they get the job done. Love a good run team that all they need to do is keep it close, control the ball, and let the clock roll.
Click to expand...
UNM played from behind a lot last year. Qb's tend to try to do too much in those situations. I know for a fact that Utah has been working on the passing component with him since his arrival. I'm expecting better numbers from him in the passing game this year.
 
Two Utes said:
UNM played from behind a lot last year. Qb's tend to try to do too much in those situations. I know for a fact that Utah has been working on the passing component with him since his arrival. I'm expecting better numbers from him in the passing game this year.
Click to expand...
I trust Utah to do so.
 
Two Utes said:
UNM played from behind a lot last year. Qb's tend to try to do too much in those situations. I know for a fact that Utah has been working on the passing component with him since his arrival. I'm expecting better numbers from him in the passing game this year.
Click to expand...
Nothing better than show him film on himself week by week and his growth might take a few weeks. Thats where your point on Utah starting slow is on the money.

They are favored in week 1 so I might be wrong about UCLA. For me im looking hard at Utah to be extremely motivated after such a letdown last year and the disappointment from Cam Rising.

Get Dampier developed and in 2026 this could be something.
 
spottie2935 said:
Nothing better than show him film on himself week by week and his growth might take a few weeks. Thats where your point on Utah starting slow is on the money.

They are favored in week 1 so I might be wrong about UCLA. For me im looking hard at Utah to be extremely motivated after such a letdown last year and the disappointment from Cam Rising.

Get Dampier developed and in 2026 this could be something.
Click to expand...
In Rising's defense he was so hurt that he really shouldn't have been playing in the first place. Wilson was so bad that Whittingham said, "F Cam's health, let's get him out there". Such a weird year. Their defense just broke down as the year went on since they were on the field so much.

I think half of the staff is frustrated with KW's handling of things last year. He better give Beck full control of the offense.
 
spottie2935 said:
Nothing better than show him film on himself week by week and his growth might take a few weeks. Thats where your point on Utah starting slow is on the money.

They are favored in week 1 so I might be wrong about UCLA. For me im looking hard at Utah to be extremely motivated after such a letdown last year and the disappointment from Cam Rising.

Get Dampier developed and in 2026 this could be something.
Click to expand...
Alright, I've done a 180 on this as i was with you on UCLA. They may still cover but I expect Utah to get the road W. I watched a 30 min interview with Dampier yesterday and the kid is calm, cool and collected. I know that doesn't mean a thing but he reminded me of some things about Utah's offense and surprised me with two things.

He took less money to go to Utah. Said too many guys are all about the money then there aren't resources to get players around them. All give of Utah's OL return and none have less than 10 starts. I can't tell you the last time Utah had that luxury.

Wayshon Parker and Naqari Rodgers are going to make a nice 1,2 punch in the backfield in addition to the threat of Dampier running it.

WR room should be much better than last year. Also, the surprise.... Lander Barton and Smith Snowden will be playing both ways this year. I expect Barton to be an H back/TE and Snowden will play in the slot.

The biggest concern on defense going into spring were the DT's but apparently the young guys have come along better than expected. First games are always a crap shoot so tread lightly but I think this years team is going to surprise a lot of people.
 
Good luck guys it’s going to be a fun game. I use data as historically these are dog games. Maybe your research has elevated past this line. Either way there are many methods.


If this line was- -3 that doesn’t leave much cushion for a cover without a win. What I get is the benefit of 2 good teams competing for the last field goal attempt to close it out. Thats how I feel this will end. Week 1 game with penalties and mistakes.

16-36 ATS as a group.

Best wishes.
 

Attachments

  • IMG_4365.jpeg
    IMG_4365.jpeg
    279.7 KB · Views: 3
Last edited:
blowoutgm said:
I think Utah thumps UCLA and will surprise people this year.
Click to expand...
The way I see it is different. UCLA could be a surprise team this season because they have been dormant. Utah being a surprise would have to mean an extraordinary win loss record. UCLA surprise would entail less than that to exceed expectations.

Utah had one bad season and have been hurting because of the QB position for a few seasons. A favorite in this game to me doesn’t make them a surprise team this season. Just my opinion on your thinking. Doesn’t matter I have a good handle on this weeks games and lines.

Thanks for the comment and best wishes this week.

My overall projection for both of these squads is elevated production. Which is congruent with better win loss records. I might be early projecting such progress from UCLA but that’s okay.

A lot of UCLA Support this week and a 10 point or more UCLA loss this week could curtail some of the UCLA early season enthusiasm.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top