UCLA vs. Boise State LA Bowl 2023 Betting Analysis: Both Offenses To Light Up L.A.
UCLA Bruins vs. Boise State Broncos
Saturday, December 16, 2023 at 7:30 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
UCLA's Quarterback Situation
I have heard reports that "UCLA's starting quarterback" is set to miss this game.
These reports are very misleading.
It is true that quarterback Dante Moore will miss this game -- Moore has entered the transfer portal.
And it is true that Moore has been UCLA's starting quarterback for much of the season.
But he is not even close to being the Bruins' top quarterback.
Whereas Moore completed just over half of his passes and threw eleven touchdowns to nine interceptions, Ethan Garbers completed 66.4 percent of his passes and threw nine touchdowns to three interceptions.
When it comes to making decisions and being accurate in game, Garbers is the better quarterback, as the stats show. Garbers' athleticism is also easily overlooked.
He merely missed time due to injury, but he should be recovered in time to play -- head coach Chip Kelly has said as much.
Boise State's Pass Defense
Garbers' availability is crucial because Boise State's pass defense is very vulnerable.
The Broncos are prone to giving up big plays in the passing game, which is an especially meaningful problem for this game in view of Garbers' touted deep ball ability.
For all of their issues in pass coverage, they often struggle to tackle, which allows opposing offenses to extend plays and extend drives.
Hence, getting off the field on third down has been almost as much of a problem for the Broncos' defense as has defending the pass in general.
One San Diego State drive late in the third quarter of the Aztecs' high-scoring loss to Boise State provides a good example of what I mean.
The Aztecs repeatedly faced difficult third-and-long situations, such as third and ten, but were able to convert en route to a score.
Missed tackles, missed coverage opportunities and other problems manifested themselves in this drive.
So, while "under" backers will point to the quality of Boise State's run defense, a big reason why run defense is important is that it helps create third-and-long situations for opposing offenses, but those situations will be relatively easy for Garbers and company to navigate given the many deficiencies of the Broncos' pass defense.
Boise State's Run Defense
While the Broncos' run defense is better than their pass defense, that isn't saying much, and Boise State's run defense is far from impregnable.
While Boise State's run defense has enjoyed some good performances, it has struggled a lot against the better rush attacks of the Mountain West.
Take Boise State's high-scoring game against Fresno State, for example, which featured the Mountain West's fourth-leading rusher in running back Malik Sherrod.
Against the Broncos, Sherrod amassed 132 rushing yards on 6.3 YPC.
Other good running backs likewise thrive against the Broncos, another example being New Mexico's Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
Croskey-Merritt's performance against Boise State -- he averaged 4.9 YPC on 15 carries -- is particularly impressive given the lack of support he had at quarterback.
Carson Steele
Bruins' running back Carson Steele will have it easier than Croskey-Merritt because he'll have Garbers to help absorb the defense's focus.
Carson Steele also benefits from being the Pac-12's sixth-leading rusher.
Tough to bring to the ground by a single tackler or to bring down by one in space, Steele is averaging just over five YPC.
He'll give the Broncos' defense a lot to handle.
UCLA's Defensive Coordinator
UCLA backers will point to the quality of the Bruins' defense.
However, UCLA's defense loses a major element of its preparation for the Broncos.
Now former defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn has been hired away from UCLA by USC, leaving Chip Kelly in the dust for this bowl game.
Boise State's Quarterback Situation
The other major thing that Bruins' backers will point to is the fact that the Broncos will likely be on their third-string quarterback.
However, Boise State will not be any worse for it.
While whoever starts for the Broncos at quarterback will raw, so will the UCLA defense's preparation for him without its coordinator.
CJ Tiller would be an exciting start given his reported mobility, which he shows in his ability to escape the pocket.
He'd make plays with his reportedly live arm, as would Colt Fulton if he starts.
Both quarterbacks know the offense and are able to make the necessary throws, especially behind the Broncos' reliable pass protection.
Boise State's Running Back
Competence at quarterback is really all that's needed to keep UCLA from stacking the box.
The Broncos have their star power at running back available.
George Holani averages 5.2 YPC as the backup to Ashton Jeanty, who has run for 1,262 yards on 6.2 YPC.
Takeaway
Both offenses will put up a lot of points, but the underdog is worth investing in as the team that enters this game with greater momentum.
Whereas UCLA has struggled down the stretch, losing three of its last four games, the Broncos have won their last four.
Boise State will be better prepared and more than talented enough to take down high-profile UCLA.
Best Bet: Boise State +2.5 at -110 with Bet365 & Over 49.5 at -110 with Bet365
UCLA Bruins vs. Boise State Broncos
Saturday, December 16, 2023 at 7:30 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
UCLA's Quarterback Situation
I have heard reports that "UCLA's starting quarterback" is set to miss this game.
These reports are very misleading.
It is true that quarterback Dante Moore will miss this game -- Moore has entered the transfer portal.
And it is true that Moore has been UCLA's starting quarterback for much of the season.
But he is not even close to being the Bruins' top quarterback.
Whereas Moore completed just over half of his passes and threw eleven touchdowns to nine interceptions, Ethan Garbers completed 66.4 percent of his passes and threw nine touchdowns to three interceptions.
When it comes to making decisions and being accurate in game, Garbers is the better quarterback, as the stats show. Garbers' athleticism is also easily overlooked.
He merely missed time due to injury, but he should be recovered in time to play -- head coach Chip Kelly has said as much.
Boise State's Pass Defense
Garbers' availability is crucial because Boise State's pass defense is very vulnerable.
The Broncos are prone to giving up big plays in the passing game, which is an especially meaningful problem for this game in view of Garbers' touted deep ball ability.
For all of their issues in pass coverage, they often struggle to tackle, which allows opposing offenses to extend plays and extend drives.
Hence, getting off the field on third down has been almost as much of a problem for the Broncos' defense as has defending the pass in general.
One San Diego State drive late in the third quarter of the Aztecs' high-scoring loss to Boise State provides a good example of what I mean.
The Aztecs repeatedly faced difficult third-and-long situations, such as third and ten, but were able to convert en route to a score.
Missed tackles, missed coverage opportunities and other problems manifested themselves in this drive.
So, while "under" backers will point to the quality of Boise State's run defense, a big reason why run defense is important is that it helps create third-and-long situations for opposing offenses, but those situations will be relatively easy for Garbers and company to navigate given the many deficiencies of the Broncos' pass defense.
Boise State's Run Defense
While the Broncos' run defense is better than their pass defense, that isn't saying much, and Boise State's run defense is far from impregnable.
While Boise State's run defense has enjoyed some good performances, it has struggled a lot against the better rush attacks of the Mountain West.
Take Boise State's high-scoring game against Fresno State, for example, which featured the Mountain West's fourth-leading rusher in running back Malik Sherrod.
Against the Broncos, Sherrod amassed 132 rushing yards on 6.3 YPC.
Other good running backs likewise thrive against the Broncos, another example being New Mexico's Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
Croskey-Merritt's performance against Boise State -- he averaged 4.9 YPC on 15 carries -- is particularly impressive given the lack of support he had at quarterback.
Carson Steele
Bruins' running back Carson Steele will have it easier than Croskey-Merritt because he'll have Garbers to help absorb the defense's focus.
Carson Steele also benefits from being the Pac-12's sixth-leading rusher.
Tough to bring to the ground by a single tackler or to bring down by one in space, Steele is averaging just over five YPC.
He'll give the Broncos' defense a lot to handle.
UCLA's Defensive Coordinator
UCLA backers will point to the quality of the Bruins' defense.
However, UCLA's defense loses a major element of its preparation for the Broncos.
Now former defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn has been hired away from UCLA by USC, leaving Chip Kelly in the dust for this bowl game.
Boise State's Quarterback Situation
The other major thing that Bruins' backers will point to is the fact that the Broncos will likely be on their third-string quarterback.
However, Boise State will not be any worse for it.
While whoever starts for the Broncos at quarterback will raw, so will the UCLA defense's preparation for him without its coordinator.
CJ Tiller would be an exciting start given his reported mobility, which he shows in his ability to escape the pocket.
He'd make plays with his reportedly live arm, as would Colt Fulton if he starts.
Both quarterbacks know the offense and are able to make the necessary throws, especially behind the Broncos' reliable pass protection.
Boise State's Running Back
Competence at quarterback is really all that's needed to keep UCLA from stacking the box.
The Broncos have their star power at running back available.
George Holani averages 5.2 YPC as the backup to Ashton Jeanty, who has run for 1,262 yards on 6.2 YPC.
Takeaway
Both offenses will put up a lot of points, but the underdog is worth investing in as the team that enters this game with greater momentum.
Whereas UCLA has struggled down the stretch, losing three of its last four games, the Broncos have won their last four.
Boise State will be better prepared and more than talented enough to take down high-profile UCLA.
Best Bet: Boise State +2.5 at -110 with Bet365 & Over 49.5 at -110 with Bet365
