UCLA V Wash---what am I missing

C

captbunch18

Pretty much a regular
I dont get why this line is only 2.5. Do the books not respect UCLA yet? They had a tough 2 game stretch. Other than that, they have done what they should do.

If this game were @ Washington, I could understand the line, as UW is a tough place to play.

Only reason I ask is when the lines seem too easy, that usually bites me in the ass.
 
cap yeah wrong team getting points wash is the much better team. but its gambling
 
you guys aren't missing anything, despite the 2 threads. both teams are very equal, and the line is set perfectly imo. the game is a coin flip.

on a neutral field, as of this week, UW would be a very slight fav...but home field puts the Bruins as a small fav, under a FG...exactly where it should be.

UW is a bit healthier, but UCLA is a bit more talented (overall). this is about as evenly matched as a football game can be...across the board.

and if the $ &/or % was really that unbalanced, the books would've adjusted things to even it out. a 3 or even a 3.5 would bring immediate $ to the UW side, considering the full picture.
 
I'm ok taking WASH here +3, but I will wait to see if I can get +3.5. Taking a closer look at WASH schedule: They were dogs in all 3 of their losses - all 3 to tough teams. 2 of 3 on the road (STAN and ASU), and their 1 home loss came to Oregon. In a close game such as this, I look to turnover #'s. WASH has only committed 2 turnovers in a game ONCE this year -- to Oregon. They only have 1 turnover in their last 3 games combined.
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
I'm ok taking WASH here +3, but I will wait to see if I can get +3.5. Taking a closer look at WASH schedule: They were dogs in all 3 of their losses - all 3 to tough teams. 2 of 3 on the road (STAN and ASU), and their 1 home loss came to Oregon. In a close game such as this, I look to turnover #'s. WASH has only committed 2 turnovers in a game ONCE this year -- to Oregon. They only have 1 turnover in their last 3 games combined.
Click to expand...

great points on the turn overs....
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
I'm ok taking WASH here +3, but I will wait to see if I can get +3.5. Taking a closer look at WASH schedule: They were dogs in all 3 of their losses - all 3 to tough teams. 2 of 3 on the road (STAN and ASU), and their 1 home loss came to Oregon. In a close game such as this, I look to turnover #'s. WASH has only committed 2 turnovers in a game ONCE this year -- to Oregon. They only have 1 turnover in their last 3 games combined.
Click to expand...

if you go strictly based upon the common opponents to date, and how both of these teams performed in those games, you'd have to give the edge here to washington.

i'm not sure that (ever) represents the whole picture though. for example, utah beat stanford at home...but lost to both UCLA and ASU at home...yet stanford beat both of them.

other than giving stanford a good game though, UW hasn't traveled well this season. that Illinois win in Chicago doesn't look that good now...and ASU boat-raced UW. (side note...regardless of tonight's outcome...the ASU/UCLA game will be much, much better. no one's gonna get boat-raced there.)

anyhow, UW's last 2 games were Cal and Colorado...so of course they're gonna look great coming into this tilt...just as most any team would have a tough time after facing stanford and oregon in back to back weeks, as both UW and UCLA have. (only UCLA had them both on the road, and didn't have an ASU waiting in the 3rd week.)

bottom line though...this game is an absolute coin flip heading into it...so whatever side you like, just try to get the best of the line and enjoy a great game.
personally speaking, I didn't see any value whatsoever with the line...so i teased the thing. to each, his own...
 
Cal/Colorado aren't gonna create many turnovers...and ASU was too busy scoring against UW to get/need turnovers.

It's a good point...just saying that everything's relative. Both Price and Hundley have been a bit sloppy, and have underperformed at times, this season.

You can almost hold up a mirror to either UW or UCLA, and see the other team.
 
hopefully, this pastes over ok, but more #s to show how even the match-up truly is...

[TABLE="class: std results"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH] [/TH]
[TH] [/TH]
[TH="colspan: 4"]Rushing Stats [/TH]
[TH="colspan: 7"]Passing Stats[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 2"]Total[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: gray"]
[TH][/TH]
[TH]Pts[/TH]
[TH]Atts[/TH]
[TH]Yds[/TH]
[TH]Ypr[/TH]
[TH]Fum[/TH]
[TH]Comp[/TH]
[TH]Att[/TH]
[TH]Int[/TH]
[TH]Yds[/TH]
[TH]Ypp[/TH]
[TH]Sack[/TH]
[TH]Yppp[/TH]
[TH]Yds[/TH]
[TH]Yppl[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: WhiteSmoke"]
[TD] Washington-Offense[/TD]
[TD]37.2[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD]249[/TD]
[TD] 5.8[/TD]
[TD] 0.56[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD] 0.44[/TD]
[TD]271[/TD]
[TD] 7.5[/TD]
[TD] 2.6[/TD]
[TD] 7.5[/TD]
[TD]519[/TD]
[TD] 6.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: WhiteSmoke"]
[TD] Washington-Defense[/TD]
[TD]21.8[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]183[/TD]
[TD] 5.0[/TD]
[TD] 0.44[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD] 1.11[/TD]
[TD]194[/TD]
[TD] 5.0[/TD]
[TD] 2.9[/TD]
[TD] 5.0[/TD]
[TD]377[/TD]
[TD] 5.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] League Average[/TD]
[TD="class: t2"]27.9[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]185[/TD]
[TD] 5.0[/TD]
[TD] 0.76[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD] 0.97[/TD]
[TD]215[/TD]
[TD] 6.4[/TD]
[TD] 2.0[/TD]
[TD] 6.4[/TD]
[TD]400[/TD]
[TD] 5.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: WhiteSmoke"]
[TD] UCLA-Offense[/TD]
[TD="class: t2"]36.6[/TD]
[TD]39[/TD]
[TD]217[/TD]
[TD] 5.5[/TD]
[TD] 0.44[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD] 0.89[/TD]
[TD]253[/TD]
[TD] 7.5[/TD]
[TD] 2.3[/TD]
[TD] 7.5[/TD]
[TD]470[/TD]
[TD] 6.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: WhiteSmoke"]
[TD] UCLA-Defense[/TD]
[TD="class: t2"]22.9[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]182[/TD]
[TD] 4.4[/TD]
[TD] 0.78[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD] 1.11[/TD]
[TD]202[/TD]
[TD] 5.7[/TD]
[TD] 1.7[/TD]
[TD] 5.7[/TD]
[TD]384[/TD]
[TD] 5.0[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


only thing to note is that UW has played 3 road games...one relatively easy, and two vs tough teams (stanford and asu).
conversely, ucla has played 5 tough road games...nebraska, utah, stanford, oregon, and arizona...albeit some harder than others.
but my point is that those games need to be accounted for in the numbers above as well...as the schedules played aren't totally equal to date. (in other words, typically it's a bit tougher on these #s on the road versus at home...generally speaking.)
 
Yanks27Sox8 said:
if you go strictly based upon the common opponents to date, and how both of these teams performed in those games, you'd have to give the edge here to washington.

i'm not sure that (ever) represents the whole picture though. for example, utah beat stanford at home...but lost to both UCLA and ASU at home...yet stanford beat both of them.

other than giving stanford a good game though, UW hasn't traveled well this season. that Illinois win in Chicago doesn't look that good now...and ASU boat-raced UW. (side note...regardless of tonight's outcome...the ASU/UCLA game will be much, much better. no one's gonna get boat-raced there.)

anyhow, UW's last 2 games were Cal and Colorado...so of course they're gonna look great coming into this tilt...just as most any team would have a tough time after facing stanford and oregon in back to back weeks, as both UW and UCLA have. (only UCLA had them both on the road, and didn't have an ASU waiting in the 3rd week.)

bottom line though...this game is an absolute coin flip heading into it...so whatever side you like, just try to get the best of the line and enjoy a great game.
personally speaking, I didn't see any value whatsoever with the line...so i teased the thing. to each, his own...
Click to expand...

Just curious as to why if you see this as an absolute coin flip game, why you wouldnt tease the other side ... You've gone from a coin flip laying 3 points to a coin flip receiving 4 points with your bet ... yet adding to Wash you would be receiving 10 pts in a coin flip and move into 2 possession territory ... any bias of a slight lean to UCLA?
 
NYGiants25 said:
Just curious as to why if you see this as an absolute coin flip game, why you wouldnt tease the other side ... You've gone from a coin flip laying 3 points to a coin flip receiving 4 points with your bet ... yet adding to Wash you would be receiving 10 pts in a coin flip and move into 2 possession territory ... any bias of a slight lean to UCLA?
Click to expand...

of course. i don't hide that i'm a UCLA fan. try to be objective as possible though, as the PR #s i post demonstrate.

i get what you're saying though regarding teasing it the other way. tbh, i'm sure being a ucla fan played a role in my decision. but my thinking was not trusting UW on the road.

in other words, if my capping of the game turns out to be off a bit tonight, i'm betting that there's a better chance i'm off in regards to ucla winning by more than losing the game SU tonight.
 
Steele (31-30 UW in pressbox too) likes a tight game...

Rushing Passing Points TO’s ST’s
WASHINGTON 172 224 25 +2 –
UCLA 197 246 25 +4 4
Washington is 2-8 SU/3-7 ATS on the Pac-12 road and UCLA has won 7 straight vs UW at home
(5-2 ATS). The Huskies this year have been more impressive outgaining foes by 134 ypg (UCLA
+74). We’ll pass with the line under a fg and the points even.
NO PLAY: WASHINGTON 25 UCLA 25


As does Winning Points & Pointwise...

UCLA* over Washington by 1
(Friday)
Jim Mora likely has more surprises up his sleeve for Washington, but it’s hard to
go against the Huskies who scored 28 points in the second half last week without
attempting a pass. UCLA 31-30

UCLA 31 - Washington 30 - (9:00 - ESPN2) -- Both back on track, off 0-3 ATS
slides, with Bruins the more impressive in 31-26 road win at Arizona, with 249
RYs & 227 PYs, scoring on 66-yd running & passing plays. Huskies got 312
PYs & 143 RYs from Price & Sankey LW, & nice 100-24 pt edge vs Cal & Colo.





but not every newsletter pundit agrees/copies the other. see the gold sheet...

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15
*UCLA 34 - Washington 23—For a few weeks, insiders have been saying
frosh LB sensation Myles Jack (third on the team in tackles) might be the Bruins’
best RB. After watching him bull and sprint for 120 important yards in just six
carries at Arizona, it turns out that’s the fact, Jack. His punch in the backfield
will greatly relieve pressure on QB Brett Hundley, whose own running has
recently victimized blitzing defenses. UW’s Price-Sankey backfield is excellent,
but UCLA has the better defense. TV-ESPN2

or the related CKO...

11 *UCLA over Washington
Late Score Forecast:
*UCLA 38 - Washington 20
(Friday, November 15

There aren’t too many teams that can make a major change two-thirds of the way into the season that might greatly
enhance their postseason prospects. But UCLA coach Jim Mora decided to “flip the switch,” calling on some of his
talented defenders to take a brief turn on offense, seeking primarily to re-energize the Bruins’ stagnant ground
game. Mora’s move worked like a charm last week at Arizona, with frosh OLB Myles Jack (a lock for all-frosh Pac-
12 team) taking some turns at RB and dashing for 120 yards and a TD in just six carries. In August, Mora toyed with
the idea of making the 6-1, 225 Jack (a RB/LB in high school, in Bellevue, WA, by the way) the Bruins’ kickoff return
guy, but eventually decided Jack was too valuable on defense to risk injury. But with UCLA top RB Jordon James
re-injured vs. Colorado, Mora decided to take the chance in order to keep defenses from focusing on QB Brett
Hundley. Several other Bruin defenders (including LB/TE Jordan Zumwalt and DT/OT Eddie Vanderdoes) also got
snaps on offense at U of A and are likely to get more this week. The UW offense is formidable, but the Huskies have
covered only 2 of their last 13 away.


just having fun with it. like i said above, best play is to fade lang tonight. :hello:
(don't know his side yet. but another dude i like to fade is on UW.)
 
Yanks ... I wasn't questioning you BTW ... I think I missed explaining the assumption I was asking a "why" to ... And just to be straight forward, it was totally for discussion purposes and not going against you (I have ucla -3). You were calling it a flip, and I factored my thoughts based on pickem ... Now I'm kind of thinking you're factoring the coin flip off the spread? ... That would make more sense to tease the ucla side ... Either way I hope we both win! . :shake:
 
NYGiants25 said:
Yanks ... I wasn't questioning you BTW ... I think I missed explaining the assumption I was asking a "why" to ... And just to be straight forward, it was totally for discussion purposes and not going against you (I have ucla -3). You were calling it a flip, and I factored my thoughts based on pickem ... Now I'm kind of thinking you're factoring the coin flip off the spread? ... That would make more sense to tease the ucla side ... Either way I hope we both win! . :shake:
Click to expand...

no worries, bud. i didn't take it bad, as there was a good case for making it UW +10. and yeah, i was saying that with the spread in mind.
i was right in that there was a better chance of ucla winning by double digits than losing the game straight up. but unfortunately i was totally wrong regarding the total, and teased that part the wrong direction.
and tbh, i did consider taking under 60.5 for the game lol...so was way off base in that regard. (the bruin pass defense was poor last night, and uw couldn't stop much.)


captbunch18 said:
Can't cap turnovers. Jeez
Click to expand...

nope. there are always some things (like in game injuries) that can change the course.

2 weeks straight though...first carey, then sankey...not only have the bruins limited great RBs, but they've forced fumbles from 2 very reliable backs.

just gotta get the pass defense tighter for ASU...
 
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