UCLA/Nebraska Discussion

S

Schrute

Assistant __ ___ Regional Mod
Someone talk me off of UCLA ML

I think it has tremendous value at +170. IMO the travel isn't as big of an issue since they've had 2 weeks. Also Mora seems like he will be more than prepared with 2 weeks to prepare. Hard not to question how Nebraska will respond against a more physical team. Since every team somehow seems more physical than Nebraska these days I did go back and look at their ATS performance against physical teams last year. They did not covera against UCLA or Wisky x2. However they did cover against Michigan St and Penn St. I think the value lies in the team who I perceive as slightly better overall with a far superior HC and 2 weeks to prepare. I feel that that supercedes the travel.

Thoughts?
 
on ucla. agree with what you're saying, plus, the tragedy angle exists. kid got hit by a car and killed recently. only thing that worries me is the early start time.
 
You're correct, 88, a member of the team dying is such a shock that it is always a wild card and hard to predict.

It is so shocking to kids that age to discover that you can actually die young that for years it was sure to be such a distraction the team would be flat, college or NFL. Sometimes it would linger for several games.

Over the last decade or so coaches have learned to use it to help focus the team and dedicate the game to their fallen comrade.

You never know though. They have had to go through the news of the death, then the funeral and kids that age can react in strange ways.

Oklahoma State lost their game at Iowa State--and a berth in the national title game--two years ago because they were so emotionally drained after learning of the death of the Oklahoma State women's basketball staff in a plane crash.

UCLA was one of my best bets--better coach, better defense, better QB, more speed, can throw the ball which Neb can't do--until I learned of the death. I think it has been long enough that they will be dedicated to win one for their fallen teammate, but you can only guess.
 
the tragedy angle is something i auto-bet normally. chuck pagano getting leukemia last year, the navy coach's mom dying last week, etc. i bought off IU after that navy news, saved some money. also, ucla's front 7 is dominating. i like the bet regardless, but the tragedy angle is something i play regularly.
 
Nebraska D doesn't appear to be any good. It sounds like Bo knows as much since he hasn't been very harsh speaking about the D after the WYO game, instead taking the approach of sheltering their confidence. We saw him have meltdowns last year with the senior laden group, if they played that way vs WYO he would have went nuclear on them.

One very big positive I see in this Nebraska D is Randy Gregory at DE. He's a JUCO and kid looks fantastic, plays really fast. Kind of reminds me of the impact Barr had on UCLA last year. So we'll have to see if he can disrupt things enough with pressures or force TOs.

But otherwise there isn't a whole bunch to speak of out of that Husker D that I've seen. When I was watching the WYO game the announcers said 'this is UCLA all over again'. Maybe it is just that easy to like Bruins?

If Martinez can avoid INTs (which is kind of an oxymoron) then maybe the Bruin secondary can be had. Husker WR targets are pretty good unit, Bell gets alot of hype, but Enunwa might be in store for a break-out year and they are pretty high on Jake Long at TE.

I will say something about their RB situation too, it is different than when they faced UCLA last year. #1 Burkhead was out and #2 Abdullah carried the load with 3rd string Heard filling in. Heard had a couple nice runs in that game, but he has transferred and really now Nebraska RB position is improved and is probably in the best shape it has been under Bo. Their 3-deep looks quite good. This year Abdullah is obviously the #1, but Imani Cross at #2 gives them a 1-2 punch they did not have last year. Cross is good, very good. When Abdullah comes out, staff says they can run the whole offense with Cross. Newby is a tr fr and looked good so far this year. Not sure how much they would use him vs UCLA. A healthy Burkhead - Abdullah last year was nice, but Burkhead wasn't healthy much and they lacked a real strong 3rd string. Bottom line, Husker O is better than last year. The OL is in a better state, QB and WRs all more experienced, and overall upgrade at RB position.
 
UCLA internal clock is 9am. It would concern me more if it weren't a bye week. UCLA confidence is really high right now, even though the tragic loss. The +4 is begging for Bruin money imo.

UCLA 42 Nebby 35

I'm not one for an elaborate write-ups with stats, trends and situation's...but I really feel this is the benchmark game for the Bruins.

Adding:

Bruins have a HUGE chip on their shoulder this year after the double loss to the Trees last year. Mora has something to proof this year and the presser he had after Nick's loss really showed a lot.
 
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i think it's going to be a good game...i just think ucla's clearly the better team, and i have them as a small fav in this spot (by my #s)...so took the value.

what nebraska has going for it are situational angles, which are important. home field, revenge, and the 9am start to name a few.

ucla's not a small, finesse team in the trenches. they will match up well in size/strength with the cornhuskers.
that said, Nebraska will have some success pounding the ball w/ their RBs...which should open up the middle a bit for Martinez.

flip side...big HC advantage for the Bruins....and nothing really on deck for UCLA for next 2 weeks. so 2 weeks to prepare, and 2 weeks to get ready for conference play.
but back to football...bottom line, we all know how Nebraska can struggle defensively against mobile QBs. add in Hundley's size, and why should this game be any different?

nebraska's defense is a work in progress. wyoming, lol, put up over 600 yards in week one. no, i don't expect ucla to quite reach that number. just saying that it's a weakness/problem...and they're about 1.5 to 2 years away from being a good defensive unit again...assuming that can happen under Bo's watch.

but back to football...assuming the Bruins aren't waking up late for the game...the biggest factor to me was how historically poor Nebraska fares against the mobile QB. then add the fact that they're a young defense, making mistakes, and the whole picture (imo only) sets up for something like a 45-34 Bruin win.

doesn't make me right...that's just the way i see it.
and i'm purposely leaving out the tragedy angle, not knowing what effect it'll have.
 
geopackiv said:
UCLA internal clock is 9am. It would concern me more if it weren't a bye week. UCLA confidence is really high right now, even though the tragic loss. The +4 is begging for Bruin money imo.

UCLA 42 Nebby 35

I'm not one for an elaborate write-ups with stats, trends and situation's...but I really feel this is the benchmark game for the Bruins.

Adding:

Bruins have a HUGE chip on their shoulder this year after the double loss to the Trees last year. Mora has something to proof this year and the presser he had after Nick's loss really showed a lot.
Click to expand...

didnt they get up early and leave this morning? Their clock should be fine by Saturday. Agree with the outcome, though.
 
What advantages does Nebraska have other than home field?

Offensive line?
 
Experience at QB is an obvious advantage for me...think they need to score 50-60 pts, but I think they can
 
gynecologist said:
What advantages does Nebraska have other than home field?

Offensive line?
Click to expand...

Heard Bo say he thought Neb OL had chance to be dominant this year. I don't remember particulars, but last year this time I think they had 2 transfer or leave program from the 2 deep that Husker fans weren't happy about. The OL I believe is in better overall state this year. There are only 2 sophs in the entire 2 deep this year, all Sr and Jrs otherwise.

I would say a big advantage should be the Husker receivers vs some unknowns in the UCLA secondary. Huskers got a new guy or two running around, but the 3 key receivers have all been playing significant roles in that offense for 3 seasons now (all with same OC).
 
And this guy is a big addition to that D. I don't really know if I have a side here, but I want to see what #44 can do in this game. He's a JUCO, Randy Gregory, the one guy Taylor Martinez says he is glad he doesn't have to face.

6_1066026.JPG


6_1056275.JPG
 
Neb's LB depth:

BUCK
25 Nathan Gerry, 6-2, 210, Fr.
33 Jared Afalava, 6-3, 230, RFr.

MIKE
52 Josh Banderas, 6-2, 225, Fr.
15 Michael Rose, 5-11, 230, RFr.
-OR-
41 David Santos, 6-0, 225, So.

WILL
13 Zaire Anderson, 5-11, 220, Jr.
-OR-
25 Nathan Gerry, 6-2, 210, Fr.
Click to expand...
 
Carolina Guy said:
didnt they get up early and leave this morning? Their clock should be fine by Saturday. Agree with the outcome, though.
Click to expand...

i think they head out tomorrow but school isn't even in session yet so they're still in NFL training camp mode where there's nothing to focus on but football.
 
gotta give UCLA some love... :dancing:

tough early start...especially after having to fly in on friday, not being able to find hotel rooms for thurs nite. but the 2nd half sure was sweet, proving the Bruins to be the far superior team.


never get to do this, but props to basically the entire Pac-12 on a solid weekend. :cheers:
 
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