Pick Motivated UCF to Cover Against Heavily Favored Auburn
No. 12 UCF (12-0) plays No. 7 Auburn (10-3) on Monday, January 1, at 12:30 ET in the Peach Bowl. Auburn opened as 8-point favorites, but are now favored by as many as 10.
Psychology is a crucial betting angle in bowl games. This was already evident in the Oregon vs Boise State game, when the previously high-flying Ducks produced only 2 offensive touchdowns and were never in the game, despite being favored by 8 points, because they were emotionally reconciling themselves with the departure of Coach Taggart.
Auburn is dealing with disappointment. They had been in the playoff discussions but were left out of the playoffs in favor of a team that they had beaten soundly.
The Tigers don’t have anything to gain by beating UCF, but UCF has everything to gain by beating Auburn. They were never in the playoff discussion because the committee refused to respect a mid-major school. So they have no reason to be disappointed, but every reason to be pumped by the prospect of achieving a tremendous upset against a major SEC program in order to maintain their undefeated season. Head Coach Scott Frost will depart for his new job at Nebraska. But he decided to coach UCF in the Bowl Game to help finish what his team started.
In order to score enough points for a cover, Auburn will have to rely on its quarterback play to stretch out UCF’s defense and otherwise make its offense more prolific. Auburn is 0-3 ATS when throwing for fewer than 200 yards. In those 3 non-covers, the opposing quarterback was more efficient and threw for more yards.
UCF’s defense is underrated. They have misrepresented themselves on national television by being involved in high-scoring affairs with a lot of quick scores. Against USF, all of UCF’s touchdown drives lasted less than 3 minutes (UCF also had a kickoff return touchdown). Against Memphis, Memphis had nearly 7 more minutes of time of possession and the game went to overtime. Quick scores tend to lead to quick scores from the opponent, who gets the benefit of facing a poorly rested defense.
In terms of opposing passer rating, UCF’s pass defense ranks 45th. For instance, they held SMU’s Ben Hicks to a season-low 106 rating. On the season Hicks' rating is 144.7.
McKenzie Milton will outperform his Auburn counterpart at quarterback. Milton is acclimated to the spotlight, heaving led his team to a victory in the superbowl-like atmosphere against USF on primetime television. Milton is prolific: 69 percent completion, 3795 yards, 35 touchdowns to 9 interceptions, 497 rushing yards on 5.3 YPC. Of course his numbers are inflated by soft competition. What makes Milton trustworthy is the versatility of his skill-set. He is dangerous throwing and running. But unlike most mobile quarterbacks, he has a high completion percentage because of his accuracy. He is accurate in short throws but also ranks among NCAAF leaders in passer rating in deep passes, deep passing touchdowns and yards on deep passes.
Auburn backers will say that UCF hasn’t faced a team of Auburn’s caliber. But it’s also true that Auburn hasn’t faced a quarterback like Milton, nor has Auburn's physical defense yet encountered an-tempo play style like UCF’s that can wear them down.
The Verdict
UCF will cover because Milton is a prolific quarterback who can outperform Auburn’s quarterback. UCF can score enough with its up-tempo offense and secure the cover with its underrated defense. The Golden Knights will be more motivated to prove themselves.
NCAAF Pick: UCF +10
No. 12 UCF (12-0) plays No. 7 Auburn (10-3) on Monday, January 1, at 12:30 ET in the Peach Bowl. Auburn opened as 8-point favorites, but are now favored by as many as 10.
Psychology is a crucial betting angle in bowl games. This was already evident in the Oregon vs Boise State game, when the previously high-flying Ducks produced only 2 offensive touchdowns and were never in the game, despite being favored by 8 points, because they were emotionally reconciling themselves with the departure of Coach Taggart.
Auburn is dealing with disappointment. They had been in the playoff discussions but were left out of the playoffs in favor of a team that they had beaten soundly.
The Tigers don’t have anything to gain by beating UCF, but UCF has everything to gain by beating Auburn. They were never in the playoff discussion because the committee refused to respect a mid-major school. So they have no reason to be disappointed, but every reason to be pumped by the prospect of achieving a tremendous upset against a major SEC program in order to maintain their undefeated season. Head Coach Scott Frost will depart for his new job at Nebraska. But he decided to coach UCF in the Bowl Game to help finish what his team started.
In order to score enough points for a cover, Auburn will have to rely on its quarterback play to stretch out UCF’s defense and otherwise make its offense more prolific. Auburn is 0-3 ATS when throwing for fewer than 200 yards. In those 3 non-covers, the opposing quarterback was more efficient and threw for more yards.
UCF’s defense is underrated. They have misrepresented themselves on national television by being involved in high-scoring affairs with a lot of quick scores. Against USF, all of UCF’s touchdown drives lasted less than 3 minutes (UCF also had a kickoff return touchdown). Against Memphis, Memphis had nearly 7 more minutes of time of possession and the game went to overtime. Quick scores tend to lead to quick scores from the opponent, who gets the benefit of facing a poorly rested defense.
In terms of opposing passer rating, UCF’s pass defense ranks 45th. For instance, they held SMU’s Ben Hicks to a season-low 106 rating. On the season Hicks' rating is 144.7.
McKenzie Milton will outperform his Auburn counterpart at quarterback. Milton is acclimated to the spotlight, heaving led his team to a victory in the superbowl-like atmosphere against USF on primetime television. Milton is prolific: 69 percent completion, 3795 yards, 35 touchdowns to 9 interceptions, 497 rushing yards on 5.3 YPC. Of course his numbers are inflated by soft competition. What makes Milton trustworthy is the versatility of his skill-set. He is dangerous throwing and running. But unlike most mobile quarterbacks, he has a high completion percentage because of his accuracy. He is accurate in short throws but also ranks among NCAAF leaders in passer rating in deep passes, deep passing touchdowns and yards on deep passes.
Auburn backers will say that UCF hasn’t faced a team of Auburn’s caliber. But it’s also true that Auburn hasn’t faced a quarterback like Milton, nor has Auburn's physical defense yet encountered an-tempo play style like UCF’s that can wear them down.
The Verdict
UCF will cover because Milton is a prolific quarterback who can outperform Auburn’s quarterback. UCF can score enough with its up-tempo offense and secure the cover with its underrated defense. The Golden Knights will be more motivated to prove themselves.
NCAAF Pick: UCF +10
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