Ok, here is my take on this one. If anything I write is wrong/incorrect, please let me know.
UCF at NCSU (-9), O/U 47
Last year:
UCF: 4-8
NCSU: 3-9
Last Meeting:
Teams have never met.
UCF returns 17 starters (8 on offense, 9 on defense)
At QB, Kyle Israel is expected to take over full time after splitting time with the departing Steven Moffett last season. Israel was fairly solid last year, throwing for 1420 yards, 6 TDs, and 5 INTs. He did have an impressive 65.1% completion mark, which dwarfed Moffitt's 55.3% mark (they had pretty similar stats otherwise). Israel is not really a runner, but he can scramble when needed, as shown by his 43 carries and 137 yards last year. I don't think that Israel will be asked to be the savior, but he will need to be decent for this team to succeed and reach a bowl. Mike Greco is listed as the back-up, he was at NC State in '05 and reportedly has 4.45 speed (according to PS).
The main cog of this team will be Kevin Smith at RB. He went for 934 yards in 9 games last season after rushing for 1178 yards and getting 2nd team C-USA honors as a freshman. Assuming he goes for a full season this year, there is no reason he can't go for 1200-1300 yards.
The biggest loss on this offense is WR Mike Walker, who had 1178 yards and 7 TDs last year. These numbers are pretty impressive considering the constant inconsistency of the QBs last year. He had half of the team's receiving touchdowns last season. They do return leading receivers #2-6, including Rocky Ross, who had a respectable 531 yards and 2 TDs last year. It would be nice for one of these WRs to step up to give Israel a go-to guy.
Four of the five OL reutrn. They are a talented group. Center Kyle Smith earned C-USA Honorable Mention honors last year. RG LJ Anderson made the C-USA Freshamn team back in '05. LT Patrick Brown also achieved C-USA Honorable Mention honors last season. With this group back, there is no reason that Smith won;t find running room.
Michael Torres returns as the kicker. He has a very strong leg. He hit a 55-yarder in high school and a 51-yarder last season. However, he is inconsistent accuracy-wise, hitting 7-11 FGs from the 30-39 yard range last year and 17-24 overall.
The defense really struggled last season, giving up nearly 29 points per game. However, I look for this group to really improve. They get their 3 top tacklers back as well as 8 of their top 10. Top sack man Leger Douzable returns after a 7 sack season. He was quite effective once the coaching staff decided to move him to DE. This team gave up 250 passing yards per game last season, and nearly 4.5 yards per carry. However, the team showed improvement as the season wound down. They held each of their last three opponents under 100 yards rushing. Also, 14 of the team's 25 sacks came in the last four games.
On the line, 3 of the 4 return, including the aforementioned Douzable, who is now entrenched at the DE spot.
Only 1 of the 3 return at LB. However, one of the non-returners, Jordan Richards, actually made the C-USA freshman team two years ago (41 tackles in 6 games), but battled injuries last season.
The entire secondary returns, and there is talent there despite their bad numbers last year. CB Joe Burnett was 1st team All-C-USA as a freshman (63 tackles, 5 INT), but could only manage 50 tackles in an injury-plagued season. Also, Sha'reff Rashad, the team's 3rd leading tackler (53 tackles) and leading interception man last year (4 INT) is actually listed as the backup strong safety behind highly touted freshman Alphonso Bryant.
Blake Clingan is listed as the expected punter. He had a nice 47.0 avg. as a high school senior according to PS.
NC State returns 14 starters (8 on offense, 6 on defense)
Daniel Evans is listed as the expected starter, but he struggled last season. He passed for 1843 yards (on 307 attempts), along with 6 TDs, 11 INTs, and a 53.1%. He may be pushed by freshman Justin Burke if he doesn't perform up to par.
They have a couple of RBs that contribute, namely Toney Baker and Andre Brown. They shared carries last year, and they combined for over 1300 yards rushing and 10 TDs. They will be expected to do the same this season in order to further ease Evans/Burke into their roles. Their top 3 WRs were expected to return, but TE Anthony Hill was injured during camp and is expected to be out for the season. He had 478 yards on 45 catches last year along with 2nd team ACC honors. He will be a big loss as he would have been a big target for the QB. That leaves John Dunlap (392 yards, 4 TDs) and Darrell Blackman (358 yards, 2 TDs) to pick up the slack.
2 of the 5 return on the OL, but those that fill the remaining spots do have experience from past years. I will be interested to see what kind of depth they have at this position.
Bradley Pierson is listed as the kicker as John Deraney departs. There is little info on him.
On defense, they lose their top 3 tacklers, but return 7 of their top 10. Patrick Lowery and Tank Tyler will prove to be the biggest losses. This team was decent on D last season, and it should continue.
3 of the 4 on the DL return, and they will be anchored by DT DeMario Pressley. He had 46 tackles and 2 sacks last year.
1 of the 3 return at LB. James Martin also returns to this unit after a long history of injuries.
2 of the 4 return in the secondary. However, it is really 3 out of four as DaJuan Morgan is simply moving from free safety to strong safety. He is the team's leading returning tackler, as he registered 82 tackles and 2 INTs last year. This is arguably the team's strongest defensive unit, as they only gave up 167 yards passing and a 51.3% last year.
Punter Jeff Ruiz is listed as the heir apparent to incumbent John Deraney. Ruiz averaged 43.3 yards per punt in junior college last year.
How I see this game playing out:
Once again, the clock should be really moving here as RB is the strength of both offenses. I believe that when these teams pass, it will consist of low risk, conservative passes that make the each respective QB more comfortable. So, I am basically expecting the same thing from each offense, except that NC St. will most likely employ a two-headed RB scheme.
On defense, the secondary of each team seems to be formidable and I doubt that either one will be beaten particularly often in this game. The key to this contest will be UCF's front seven. They were horrid against the run last season overall, but they showed great improvement toward the end of the season. If they can contain Baker and Brown in this game, I think you will be looking at a UCF cover and a possible outright win.
I think this will be a fast moving game that where field position battles and special teams could make the difference. UCF and the under 47 seems like the way to go in my opinion. 20-17 NC State.
If this goes to 10, UCF will be a definite play for me.
