UAB vs. Miami (OH) Preview Article

[VirginiaCavs]

Miami (OH) vs. UAB Bahama Bowl Picks & Prediction: UAB to Thrive in High-Scoring Affair

Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. UAB Blazers
Friday, December 16, 2022 at 11:30 p.m. ET at Nassau in Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium

The Odds

One part of the odds that seems highly weird to me is the total posted for this game.

It feels entirely too low.

To see why, consider UAB's most recent games.

UAB and UTSA combined for 62 points in regulation.

Then, UAB and North Texas combined for 62 points.

After that, the Blazers and LSU Tigers combined for 51 points.

Most recently, UAB and Louisiana Tech combined for 64 points.

In keeping with these most recent results, it would seem reasonable to me if the over/under for this game were around 60.

Instead, it is about two touchdowns less than 60.

What would justify a lower posted total is if Miami (OH) had a stout defense that could match up well against UAB's offense. But do the RedHawks have such a defense.

Miami (OH) Rush Defense

One aspect of the RedHawk defense that has been conspicuously poor in its team's most recent games is the run defense.

While the RedHawks are allowing an average of 23.3 points per game, a total that already positions this game to go "over" the posted total, they have been prone to allowing way more points in recent games because of their poor run defense.

Most recently, the RedHawks allowed 265 rushing yards against Ball State.

Ball State's low scoring total was odd because the Cardinals achieved over 400 total yards.

Such an output suggests that the Cardinal scoring output fails to provide an accurate measure of their offensive success against Miami (OH).

Primarily, the Cardinals threatened via their rush attack, as their rushing output against Miami (OH) exceeded their season-long rushing yards per game average by 115 yards.

So, too, have other recent RedHawk opponents threatened via an efficacious rush attack.

Before facing Ball State, the RedHawks allowed 200 rushing yards on 27 running back carries to Northern Illinois.

UAB's Ground Game

I like the Blazers to score a lot because they easily have the running back personnel with which to damage the RedHawks' already highly vulnerable rush defense.

At running back, the Blazers enjoy the services of DeWayne McBride.

McBridge has amassed 1,713 rushing yards on 7.4 YPC.

He has a nose for the end zone with 19 rushing touchdowns, and he repeatedly demonstrates the capability to achieve the big play.

UAB vs. Mobile Quarterbacks

But UAB's defense also has its share of characteristic struggles.

The Blazers allowed Florida Atlantic quarterback N'Kosi Perry to achieve one of his best rushing performances of the season.

They allowed Western Kentucky quarterback Austin Reed to accomplish his longest run of the season.

Moreover, they allowed Liberty quarterback Kaidol Salter to have his best rushing output of the season.

Evidently, quarterbacks are able to run the ball well on the UAB defense.

This ability poses a major problem to UAB's defensive outlook because RedHawk quarterback Aveon Smith is characteristically mobile.

Smith actually leads his team in rushing.

The Verdict

While I foresee a high-scoring game in which both offenses do what they want, I think UAB will also do more than enough to cover the spread.

It is generally easier for a favored team to win by more points in a game where points come easily.

But the Blazers have a defensive advantage because compared to the likes of Salter, the RedHawk quarterback is characteristically inefficient and poses less of a threat of a passer.

UAB's advantage at quarterback will give its offense a tremendous edge.

I expect something like a 40-21 UAB victory.

Best Bet: Blazers -10 at -107 with BetOnline & Over 44 at -110 with BetOnline

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Personally zero interest in this game

 

[EL CAPO]

Portal crushed miami......was a great rush defense last year. Was a good team to watch didnt even watch em this year. Kinda same with uab they got worse. Living in the past im going heavy on the under and some on the dog.

 

[carolinablue]

The only thing that kept me off the total are those unpredictable winds, as we have been there a lot and it isn’t uncommon to see 30mph+ winds this time of year.

 

[carolinablue]

The only thing that kept me off the total are those unpredictable winds, as we have been there a lot and it isn’t uncommon to see 30mph+ winds this time of year.

With that said, I will probably still be on the over haha

 

[s--k]

DeWayne McBride and Jermaine Brown Jr. formed one of the nation's best rushing duos this season.
McBride is the country's leader in rushing yards and rushing yards per game. Brown is 65th in the country with 832 rushing yards. When it comes to eating up chunks of yardage, they've fed off each other.
In next Friday's Bahamas Bowl, which will end an eventful 2022 season, Brown could very well be eating alone when facing the Miami of Ohio defense. McBride, who is known to teammates as Debo, has not said whether he will play in the bowl game. He is expected to travel with the team but has not practiced most of this week.
"I don't really know what's on the table, but Debo's got a bright future, man," said Brown. "I don't really know if he's playing or not. I wish the best to him, wish him a great future. If it's just me, I got to come to work harder, put the team on my back."
UAB interim head coach Bryant Vincent said earlier this week that it will be McBride's decision whether he will play. If McBride does play, then he will share the carries with Brown. If not, Brown will get the bulk of the carries, with AJ Gates and Lee Witherspoon probably sharing time behind him.

 

[s--k]

Brown is good and capable of getting most of the carries and producing.

I'm more concerned with what has happened to the UAB passing game. Even when Hopkins has played, he has been pretty bad this year after being pretty good last year.

UAB was just rarely right this season. The O made mistakes that cost them games when they were favored and the D was not up to their standards.

 

[wiseplayer]

The only thing that kept me off the total are those unpredictable winds, as we have been there a lot and it isn’t uncommon to see 30mph+ winds this time of year.

This Bowl game site deserves better teams. Still 1 of my all time favorite Bowl games was there.

 

[s--k]

Been thinking about this game this afternoon. Not a great game to try and bet, over could work. Miami Oh offense isn't the kind you want to bet for an over ... but the UAB D has been so out of character this year that Miami could score some points maybe. UAB O should not have too much problem scoring one would think.

Might UAB want to send off their full season interim HC off right? Like most players at season's end, they wanted him to be their full time HC, instead they get Dilfer who is going to turn almost the entire staff over.

It is actually surprising that they do not have any opt out or transfer announcements (McBride speculated as not playing potentially). Maybe the lack of that for a team with a lame duck coach in their bowl at least speaks to them wanting to go out with a win. But does a win mean a cover? They ran for 400y on LaTech in the finale ... only won by 10 in a noncover.

UAB is actually just 3-5 ATS this year as a favorite vs FBS and have been upset 3x. They covered their last 3 bowls, but only one of those were a favorite. I got the feeling last year that bowl game was a big deal for them where as it wasn't as big of a deal for BYU and Blazers upset them. This has definitely been a disappointing season for UAB, should've competed for conference title. Miami was picked among the teams to win the MAC. Strange that both teams needed to win their finales to just get to 6-6.

If this was say a regular season game in September I would feel pretty good that UAB should take care of business. Now?

 

[carolinablue]

I decided to roll with the over as the wind forecast isn’t too bad and I’m counting on the early game and Bahamas environment to lead to some big runs throughout but who knows.

 

[s--k]

I found two UAB transfers. A TE with1 catch and I think somebody, a LB maybe, who left the team during the season. It's weird but maybe good for them. Just about everyone has some guys transfer out now when there is a coaching change.

 

[wiseplayer]

Is UAB motivated at all while being in the Bahamas? I feel Live Ingame for this one. Miami Ohio looked like shit all year to me.

 

[s--k]

Is UAB motivated at all while being in the Bahamas? I feel Live Ingame for this one. Miami Ohio looked like shit all year to me.

I would think that if somebody is taking UAB the angle is that they want to win their last game together with the coaching staff they had from Clark to Vincent. It's the last chapter in the UAB revival before the next volume is written next year. The fact that nobody of any importance is transferring can only be seen as a good thing. Offensively they are capable to overpower Miami Ohio and their defense has been a disappointment, but they have potential to play well and Miami O should not be a challenge for them.

If somebody likes Miami Oh I think they will look at UAB in disarray with an unconventional coaching change on a UAB team that hasn't been all that good this year on offense or defense and even with a healthy Hopkins at QB. They will look at UAB who has been upset by Liberty (maybe no shame in that I think several turnovers were involved), by Rice (not a good loss) and FAU (was with backup QB). Miami Oh under Martin has exceeded expectations in bowl games before as substantial underdogs.

If you like the Over, the thinking might be UAB is going to get theirs even vs perhaps an above average MAC D and UAB's D has shown enough weakness this year it could let even a poor Miami O score some. Or that UAB will just completely run over them approaching the total themselves in which case this person probably likes UAB more than Miami, but only needs Miami to chip in a little to get the Over.

And finally, an Under would likely be thinking that Miami Oh can't score, shouldn't score much on this UAB D (when UAB D plays to potential) and Miami D might just be good enough to limit a streaky UAB O that might be distracted and either way both teams will likely run more than pass.

Out of all of those, I would think Miami and Under are the least likely outcomes. It could be like 27-17 or something similar, but I think more likely UAB gets into the 30s as they did vs 6 of 8 G5 FBS teams this year. I would guess that Miami struggles to break 20. After this stream of consciousness my lean would be UAB and Over.

 

[wiseplayer]

I would think that if somebody is taking UAB the angle is that they want to win their last game together with the coaching staff they had from Clark to Vincent. It's the last chapter in the UAB revival before the next volume is written next year. The fact that nobody of any importance is transferring can only be seen as a good thing. Offensively they are capable to overpower Miami Ohio and their defense has been a disappointment, but they have potential to play well and Miami O should not be a challenge for them.

If somebody likes Miami Oh I think they will look at UAB in disarray with an unconventional coaching change on a UAB team that hasn't been all that good this year on offense or defense and even with a healthy Hopkins at QB. They will look at UAB who has been upset by Liberty (maybe no shame in that I think several turnovers were involved), by Rice (not a good loss) and FAU (was with backup QB). Miami Oh under Martin has exceeded expectations in bowl games before as substantial underdogs.

If you like the Over, the thinking might be UAB is going to get theirs even vs perhaps an above average MAC D and UAB's D has shown enough weakness this year it could let even a poor Miami O score some. Or that UAB will just completely run over them approaching the total themselves in which case this person probably likes UAB more than Miami, but only needs Miami to chip in a little to get the Over.

And finally, an Under would likely be thinking that Miami Oh can't score, shouldn't score much on this UAB D (when UAB D plays to potential) and Miami D might just be good enough to limit a streaky UAB O that might be distracted and either way both teams will likely run more than pass.

Out of all of those, I would think Miami and Under are the least likely outcomes. It could be like 27-17 or something similar, but I think more likely UAB gets into the 30s as they did vs 6 of 8 G5 FBS teams this year. I would guess that Miami struggles to break 20. After this stream of consciousness my lean would be UAB and Over.

Awesome breakdown. Thx. I feel good about waiting on Live Ingame to see the energy level of these teams. I’m not even comfortable starting up a 13pt teaser with this one. Dogs & Under seem to be a historical trend.

 

[Two Utes]

This game is a coin flip to me. There aren't many big dogs in the bowls this year so I will likely take a crack at Miami in this one in my underdog pool.

 

[Longhorns45]

I decided to roll with the over as the wind forecast isn’t too bad and I’m counting on the early game and Bahamas environment to lead to some big runs throughout but who knows.

I’m riding the over as well , don’t really see any other angle for this game . Im hoping uab scores in the 30;s and Ohio tacks on a few tds as well .. I feel good about the over but otherwise don’t see anything interesting in this game maybe some live betting .

 

[bookieassassin]

Here's what I've found when handicapping this type of spot - win for the coach thing.

BOTTOM LINE / BIG PICTURE?

It's about the quality of your preparation - the other stuff serves as more of a distraction really - SURE you run into the field fired up like crazy.
>> eg. do you think MISS ST wants to win for Leach? you bet, but what kind of practices / meetings have they had? how can they focus?

Here Miami is just not very good - so maybe UAB can simply flip the switch - no way I lay the 10+ tho.

NOTE: McBride is out

 

[s--k]

UAB message board is pretty mixed, they don't know what to expect either

 

[s--k]

@dudleydowriteAL is a UAB twitter follow

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Here's what I've found when handicapping this type of spot - win for the coach thing.

BOTTOM LINE / BIG PICTURE?

It's about the quality of your preparation - the other stuff serves as more of a distraction really - SURE you run into the field fired up like crazy.
>> eg. do you think MISS ST wants to win for Leach? you bet, but what kind of practices / meetings have they had? how can they focus?

Here Miami is just not very good - so maybe UAB can simply flip the switch - no way I lay the 10+ tho.

NOTE: McBride is out

Why would their desire to win for Leach show up in their playing fired up but not in their preparation for the game?

 

[s--k]

For the "what are we learning thread" - don't expect disappointing teams to suddenly play to their potential/expectations in the bowl, they likely are who they are at this point (UAB)

 

[Two Utes]

Bummer, I had Miami in my dog pool. I didn't watch but it looks like it was there for the taking. I'll likely be on the gators a well as I see this as another coin flip.