UAB @ Tulsa

Blue_Chip

Money Addict
I first saw this line at Tulsa -18.5, but it soon changed. I saw ETG pegged the line at Tulsa -12, so what I want the forum to opine on is:

Where would you put the line?
At what number do you stay away from Tulsa? -20.5? -22? -25? -32?

The reason I ask is because I have watched this line changed by two points, yet I still think Tulsa -20.5 = $$

Input appreciated, fellas...
 
Here's my quck thoughts on Tulsa from my thread:

As you may remember, Tulsa got beat pretty badly last friday night at home against Oklahoma, on National TV. Now, for their their third straight home game, they host the UAB Blazers is the conference home opener. Tulsa is going to take out there frustrations from last game on this young, inexperienced UAB team. If you haven't heard of Tulsa's QB Paul Smith - now you have. Already this year, he was thrown for 1,111 yards, completed 66% of his passes, and sports a 10/4 TD/INT ratio. His coaches love him because he's an amazing player, but also had this to say:

"He's an incredible leader. When you've got a quarterback who can manage the game and is smart and doesn't put the ball in jeopardy to go with a great defense, you have a chance to win football games." Todd Graham, Tulsa Head Coach

By "managing games", Graham means leading the up-tempo, no huddle offense that Tulsa employs every week. With the loss of standout senior Courtney Tennial at running back, that offense has to be even better every week. And Smith has done it.

Last week, in their blowout loss to Oklahoma, Smith passed for 354 yards and TD's, but Oklahoma's defense stole 2 INT's on their way to the win, and Tulsa could never get anything going on the ground.

This week, against UAB, there might not be a single defensive stop by UAB. UAB is a team decimated by players leaving (28 seniors gone), with only 4 starters returning on each side of the ball. Their D-line only returns one starter, the linebacking core is young, and the secondary only returns two starters.

Simply put, UAB is not going to be able to keep up with Tulsa. Their secondary is thin and inexperienced, and should bend at Paul Smith's will this weekend. As far as their offense goes, UAB's QB Sam Hunt isn't anyone to get excited about. This year, he has only thrown for 528 yards, completing 50% of his passes en route to a measly 3/2 TD/INT ratio. Although Tulsa's defense is not their strong point, they are not going to have to be strong against this weak UAB offense. The only plus UAB has on their side is that they have been able to do a little with the running game this year, and will try to slow the game down and control the clock against Tulsa's no huddle offense. Also, UAB has had two weeks to prepare, so they may have had time to come up witha gameplan to stop Paul Smith and Co.

The Line

The line opened at 18.5, and I grabbed it as soon as it came out. It is now over 21 and up to 23 I think in some spots. Luckily, Tulsa got drubbed by Oklahoma, and UAB hung with an underperforming Florida State Team, giving us the soft number of 18.5 on open. The move to 21 represents a shift up to where the line should have opened, in my opinion. I like this game big up to 21.

The Bet: Tulsa -18 (5 units)

UAB: 20 Tulsa: 55
 
I'm also taking Tulsa and the over. I'm no capper though, BC, but I'd play it to four scores....

I'm considering LSU -24 1H rather large. What are your thoughts on the Bengals?
 
RambleOn & counselor,

Going off of what both of you said, the main reason why I still like Tulsa at -20.5 is because it is under that 3 TD+PAT mark, which I think can prove to be crucial in some instances. However, similar to RambleOn's prediction, I see this game being a 55-21 type affair.

Thanks for the input, guys, keep it coming...
 
counselor,

LSU -24 1H ...

This game will obviously be a blowout, but if LSU rests most of its talent for the following week vs Florida, I can see a 21-0 LSU lead at half. And would 21-0 at half be considered bad? Not necessarily, because everyone knows LSU is thinking about Florida and planning for Florida (resting talent).

Bottom line, Tulane will not score in the 1st half, so it is your call as to whether LSU will have > 24 pts at halftime. IMO, it seems easy for LSU to put up 24 pts with the starters getting a taste of playing time in the 1stQ or so.

I would lean toward LSU -24 1H. GL counselor...
 
BC - 1 thing, sometimes my predicted lines are more of what I hope/want to play, sometimes they are what I think they will be. Tulsa was a case of obviously what I had wished it would be. -17 makes a lot of sense. I see its -20.5 and I could be laying off it
 
i got -20.5, and i still like it as it is only 3 scores and i think paul smith will be very effective with the spread offense.
 
My only qualm here is that Tulsa plays no defense what so ever. I can see them scoring 45+ here but UAB should be able to muster 17-24 on them.
 
Blue Chip - Not a whole anyone can add here, Ramble pretty much covered it. But I will let you know this.....I am probably flying to Vegas for this one.
I only go thru that expense when my plays are large enough to justify and this game should be huge. Don't expect the line to stay where it's at, I don't. But I am 100% on board this play.

Good Luck
 
Dr. Bob got hammered...I mean hammered last week.:3_8_14:

I've gone against Dr. Bob 3 weeks in a row and made good money..REAL good money.:money2:

I love Tulsa here. The only negative is UAB has had a week to prepare.

We need Dr. Bob to jump on UAB...boy that would be nice.money;
 
I think he is going to have Miss St this weekend and in that case, I will swallow up SC-10
 
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