Here's my quck thoughts on Tulsa from my thread:
As you may remember, Tulsa got beat pretty badly last friday night at home against Oklahoma, on National TV. Now, for their their third straight home game, they host the UAB Blazers is the conference home opener. Tulsa is going to take out there frustrations from last game on this young, inexperienced UAB team. If you haven't heard of Tulsa's QB Paul Smith - now you have. Already this year, he was thrown for 1,111 yards, completed 66% of his passes, and sports a 10/4 TD/INT ratio. His coaches love him because he's an amazing player, but also had this to say:
"He's an incredible leader. When you've got a quarterback who can manage the game and is smart and doesn't put the ball in jeopardy to go with a great defense, you have a chance to win football games." Todd Graham, Tulsa Head Coach
By "managing games", Graham means leading the up-tempo, no huddle offense that Tulsa employs every week. With the loss of standout senior Courtney Tennial at running back, that offense has to be even better every week. And Smith has done it.
Last week, in their blowout loss to Oklahoma, Smith passed for 354 yards and TD's, but Oklahoma's defense stole 2 INT's on their way to the win, and Tulsa could never get anything going on the ground.
This week, against UAB, there might not be a single defensive stop by UAB. UAB is a team decimated by players leaving (28 seniors gone), with only 4 starters returning on each side of the ball. Their D-line only returns one starter, the linebacking core is young, and the secondary only returns two starters.
Simply put, UAB is not going to be able to keep up with Tulsa. Their secondary is thin and inexperienced, and should bend at Paul Smith's will this weekend. As far as their offense goes, UAB's QB Sam Hunt isn't anyone to get excited about. This year, he has only thrown for 528 yards, completing 50% of his passes en route to a measly 3/2 TD/INT ratio. Although Tulsa's defense is not their strong point, they are not going to have to be strong against this weak UAB offense. The only plus UAB has on their side is that they have been able to do a little with the running game this year, and will try to slow the game down and control the clock against Tulsa's no huddle offense. Also, UAB has had two weeks to prepare, so they may have had time to come up witha gameplan to stop Paul Smith and Co.
The Line
The line opened at 18.5, and I grabbed it as soon as it came out. It is now over 21 and up to 23 I think in some spots. Luckily, Tulsa got drubbed by Oklahoma, and UAB hung with an underperforming Florida State Team, giving us the soft number of 18.5 on open. The move to 21 represents a shift up to where the line should have opened, in my opinion. I like this game big up to 21.
The Bet: Tulsa -18 (5 units)
UAB: 20 Tulsa: 55