Two Unders for tonight.

C

CapTwo

Richmond Local TV Legend
Spurs/Magic Under 190.5 (1.5 units)
WizKids/BLAZAHS Under 189 (1 unit)

Spurs First Half Under 95 (.5 units)
(sportsnut tail)
I dont want to run into one of those notorious 3rd quarter spurs quarters when they dont miss from the field.
Damn freight Train.

I would not recommend watching either of these two games. lol.
If you saw the spurs/mavs game... youll know what im talkin about.
They will be ugly!!!

There will be a slow tempo, plenty of missed shots, and some excellent defense (more by the spurs).

In the spurs game specifically, the total will stay down due to a lack of 2nd chance shots. Both teams are excellent in boxing out and limiting offensive boards. We know the spurs, love to play physical, in your face defense.
Orlando will give you those outside looks, but it's tough to get anything easy in the paint agaisnt them. That may hinder parker's penetration and get him frustrated.
If they shoot like they did last game, this game will fly under.

Bowen will blanket turkoglu, and tonight will be one of his off nights from 3. We know hes a streaky shooter
Jameer Nelson has been cold from the field as well recently, and that will not change tonight.
Both teams will keep eachother off the glass defensively, and unless both teams are shooting 45-50% from the field, this one will stay under.
 
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As far as the wizards game goes, washington is usually a good "under" play when travelling out west.

They're 4-1 on unders, in their last 5 against the Western conference....
and 6-2 in their last 8 road games.

I have a stronger feel and lean on the spurs game, washington is more by feel.

Good luck today, that's all ive got :cheers:
 
that spurs total is down to 187.5 so you got a good number, but i'm on the over at 187.5

188, 189, 190 and we both win
 
agree with the under in spurs/magic game. weary about the 3 balls from both teams and the spurs should shoot better when they were in dallas. i dunno. i'm on the other side in washington. by feel i like over 186. but hey we can both cash on that. gl.
 
Im a lot more confident on the spurs total, EHS....you definitely might havea winner there.

And i should have added in that aldridge is out and that should help the total down a little bit. gl man
 
CP2

Yo like em both, haven't decided on anything yet. Will more than likely pass on most sides, unless Orlando comes down to 1.5, or 1. Don't forsee that happening.
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
CP2

Yo like em both, haven't decided on anything yet. Will more than likely pass on most sides, unless Orlando comes down to 1.5, or 1. Don't forsee that happening.
Click to expand...

Thanks marlo, sounds good man :shake:

But the real question is, WHO IS ELLEN ON TONIGHT??? :tiphat:
 
Ellen is going to be betting the Spurs/Orlando under @ 189.

As a road underdog this year they are 3-10 to the under
In all road games they are 13-23 to the under
When playing against a team with a winning record they are 10-24 to the under
 
Good stuff Cap. Looking at both those myself. I think the best point you made is the ability by both teams to limit 2nd chance opportunities and it shows in the last meeting. Which was an offensive clinic ORL 56% , 50% and 67% FT(go figure) vs 52% , 54% and 79% for SA that wil be tough to duplicate.

Get this 77 rebounds combined and only 12 offensive all of ORL's were Howard with 3 , TD had 4 Oberto had 4 and Finley 1. Obviously this shows they both box out well and seal the guards off as well. Only 1 offensive board but a player under 6'10 and that was Finley..plus who knows what type of offensive boarsd they were meaning where they scooping up ther own misses? Which isnt really a second chance bucket IMO but technically is. This SA team is not playing well on offense. Barry is resigned and not sure of his availability or condition . Last meeting he went 7/8 but 5/6 from three. INSANE! Manu was 8-17 for 27 points. He has battled that ankle sprain and while he logged alot of minutes think 34ish @DAL he didnt shoot well 6/15 despite 26 points (11/11 FT's). He has been inconsistent of late and came off of 5 and 9pt performances b4 Dallas. So cautious with what to expect from the best offensive weapon. Also Tony Parker was 14/22 for 32 points ! He is playing better of late but they are 1-4 L5 games he topped 20 points. Also while this sta can be manipulated I dont think we see 102 combined points in the paint this meeting either. More like 80 points.

Not the smartest tool to cap a game but if all things played closer to there avgs or mean here you would see 20ish less points in the paint (102 to 80) and probably anywhere from 6 to 8 less 3 pters made then 23 of 44 about 52 , 53%. (16 of 44 is 36+%) So you already shaved that 238 in that game to 195 based on regressing to means and then there is still FTs and possessions. 168 possessions and 48 attempted FTS . I dont think we top 160 possesions and could be in the high or mid 150s but FT should be about the same. You figure 10 or 11 LESS possesions could result in 4 or 5 less made fgs...which 8-10 points say 9 and that 195 is down to 186 .

Also key as I see it is the fact ORL is living by three lately with about 35% of FGA being 3pters . As mentioned SA will look to take that away and make Howard fight with TD and Oberto in the post/paint. So now 1/3 of there shoots are 3's and they are hitting 46% 13/28 avg last 5( much better then avg) BUT SA is allowing only 30% 4 of 14 so they are defending it well and not allowing many good looks as well.

SA away lately 33 % @ DAL , 45%@ CHI , 49% @ Phi , 43% @ DET & @ NO , 35 % @ PHO. For ORL outside of the PHI game they are 95 /248 past 4games(counting just 3 @ ATL , CLE , WASH ) 38% and vs Philly the hit 14 of 23 3s for 61%.

Total is back to 190 but I prefer the 1st H under and if low enough a 2nd H over..because the number seems spot on...

GL....good theory on paper so interested to see how it transpires:cheers:
 
190 is available now.

Jump on that bitch!

Tell ellen to holla at me.

I wish I could have given a better analysis on the wizards game, but i slept about 2 hours last night and im fuckin beat.
its more of a feel, i kind of took this one on instinct.

being in va, ive watched my fair share of wizards basketball over the years.
generally, they tend to go under on the road, and turn the ball over more and struggle from the field.
but over at home, where they like to run and push the tempo more and generally putting up somewhere around the 100-105 mark.

although last year was ridiculous when we were putting up 130 and 135 points a game an 2nd in the league in scoring. although, we'd give up 140

what is portland even playing for anymore? do they even care?
they put up 84 last night in seattle, who IMO is the 2nd worst in the league defensively (to denver, and memphis is up there as well)
this team has just given up.

plus aldridge is out, is roy putting up 40 tonight himself? will portland break 90?
No, i dont think they will. but thats just me. just my 2 cents...

Enjoy the games tonight guys.... and good luck to us!
:cheers:
 
Looks like we we were both writing a nice little piece at the same time. lol.

Good points as always:shake:

I think we may see orlando trying to spread the floor and try to create some solid 3 point looks, they wont have any success in the paint.
hopefully they will continue their 3 point struggles tonight, and the way the spurs defend it i think we can assume it will.
the difference tonight will be no offensive boards for them, like we said above.
that will also be nice for the under.


Maybe both teams will finally break out of their respective droughts and it will be raining 3s in orlando. I hope not.
Not likely , but always possible.

the magic will obviously try to dictate the tempo, while the spurs try their best to slow it down.

Good touch on the offensive woes of the spurs as well, I wonder how long this will keep up for??

I take it you saw the dallas game replay last night. lol.

Im done. On to wait for the tip-offs fellas. GL tonight

:popcorn:
 
total drops 190.5 - 187....then crawls back up to 191....
for no apparanent or obvious reason.

that is eerie.
 
NickelAndDimer said:
maybe people thinking they'll see a repeat tonight of the Nov matchup that hit 238
Click to expand...

That would definitely be a valid point, and a reason people are jumpin on the over.
I just dont see it tongight the style both teams have been playing, and especially SA's offensive struggles on the road.
plus both teams have been really just gettin it done with defense, slow tempo, hopefully low score!

Orlando is gonna be out for blood thanks to that game.
That had to have been one of SA's highest point totals this season. (128)

Then the game before that, went way under. Game before that, went way over, game before that one, Under.

Given this wonderful system, this game will go UNDER tonight :shake:

gl
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
Cap lets get this bitch
Click to expand...

:tiphat: all day marlo

and then my pussy ass will pass out right after and up for 6 am degenerate baseball.
way too many cups of coffee and 2 hrs of sleep last night.
im burnt out, i cant even write coherent shit.
well, from weed too.

fuck ellen, that hoe is a jinx

21 friggin points in the first 4 minutes. ouch.

we could be in some deep shit early.
 
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Ultimately I switched from 1st H under to 1st H ORL-1. In the end it might not matter but I said yesterday I would respect line moves I couldnt understand and for once to my delight I did. Especially since the 1st H under had no shot from the getgo..

Good Luck the rest of the way...:shake:
 
Lol. This shit is way over with. I need like a 9 point quarter for one team.
Thanks though.... gl if you add play anything later.

Adding

1/2 unit on 2nd half- Syracuse +1

Now im done for the day. Got two + money wagers out there in the detroit game, we'll see how it goes. lets go wings!!

Need some sleep and will regroup tomorrow. Sorry for the pick guys, I felt good about it.


Thanks marlo, hope you hit the rest of your wagers. If not we got some nice winners this wekeend in sweet 16. louisiville, tejas, and maybe even MSU as a nice dog.

:shake:
 
CN2 leaving for Vegas 2morrow night, gonna be making them wagers in person. Plus huge amount of debauchery
 
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