Get Ready for a Royal Rumble Between Minnesota and Kansas City
Minnesota hosts Kansas City on Tuesday at 8:10 ET on FS1. Both lineups are ready to light up the scoreboard.
Kansas City Royals (25-65, 36-50-4 O/U) at Minnesota Twins (40-48, 41-44-3 O/U)
MLB Pick: 1H Over
Aaron Slegers (1-0, 2.38 ERA) continues to hang onto his spot in Minnesota’s rotation. He was conceived as a spot starter due to injuries in Minnesota’s rotation, but, his first two outings have generated positive results. However, a look beneath the surface warrants concern. In his first outing against KC on May 30, he survived with an unsustainably high rate of runners left on base and benefited from a fortunately low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play). In his most recent start against Baltimore, his opposing BABIP was exorbitantly low. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) in both outings exceeded 5.00.
Against KC, Slegers threw his fastball 73% of the time, although he has shown in other outings the ability to lean on his sinker and slider and to mix in a change-up. Against KC, he did vary the location of his fastball and place with most frequency this pitch on the top-left corner of the zone. KC batters countered by almost never swinging at his fastballs when they were outside of the middle of the zone and instead waiting for a propitious pitch location, which Slegers often obliged them. There is nothing special in Slegers’ fastball in terms of location, velocity, or spin. Nevertheless, the Royals didn’t get a hit with any of the eight fastballs of his that they put in play.
I don’t expect the Royals to be so unlucky again, although bad luck has been the story of their season against the fastball. They rank 10th in average exit velocity against it and are the second-most underachieving team against the fastball, based on the metric SLG-xSLG ,and likewise the second most against Slegers’ two other favorite pitches, the sinker and slider. Slegers’ sinker and slider, like his fastball, often find the middle of the plate. His slider lacks much horizontal movement or „slide.“ Last year, Slegers’ FIP was slightly worse, but his ERA was 6.46. In Triple A, his ERA was an awful (by professional standards) 3.55 before getting called up. So it’s not like he’s a transformed pitcher, he’s just gotten lucky. KC benefits from getting a second crack at him.
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Whereas Slegers has yet to find his prime—or even his professional readiness—Kansas City’s Ian Kennedy (1-8, 5.11 ERA) is past his prime. He’s returning from another injury, before which he had allowed five homers and 10 runs in his previous three starts.
Never in his career has Kennedy yielded a greater disparity between the percentage of his pitches landing in the strike zone and the opposing percentage of contact made. Opponents are able to be patient and selective, waiting for him to find the zone. Opponents are achieving the second-highest hard contact rate against Kennedy in his career. Kennedy’s favorite pitch is the fastball—he throws it 60% of the time. But, his opposing fastball numbers are the worst they’ve ever been. This pitch is yielding an opposing slugging percentage of .583. Kennedy once had the reputation of enhancing the perceived velocity of his fastball by throwing it up and inside against the batter. But now he concentrates its location in the middle of the plate. For example, he throws it with 5.90% frequency down the middle.
Minnesota has seen Kennedy plenty and with great success. Current Twins batters are hitting .326 and slugging .628 against him in 129 at-bats. They’ve hit 10 homers against him. Last year, Kennedy was 0-3 with a 6.43 ERA in five starts against Minnesota. Watch for Logan Morrison, who is 7-for-17 with a double, two triples, and two homers against him. Eduardo Escobar and Eddie Rosario are also hitting over .400 against him in over 15 at-bats.
Minnesota hosts Kansas City on Tuesday at 8:10 ET on FS1. Both lineups are ready to light up the scoreboard.
Kansas City Royals (25-65, 36-50-4 O/U) at Minnesota Twins (40-48, 41-44-3 O/U)
MLB Pick: 1H Over
Aaron Slegers (1-0, 2.38 ERA) continues to hang onto his spot in Minnesota’s rotation. He was conceived as a spot starter due to injuries in Minnesota’s rotation, but, his first two outings have generated positive results. However, a look beneath the surface warrants concern. In his first outing against KC on May 30, he survived with an unsustainably high rate of runners left on base and benefited from a fortunately low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play). In his most recent start against Baltimore, his opposing BABIP was exorbitantly low. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) in both outings exceeded 5.00.
Against KC, Slegers threw his fastball 73% of the time, although he has shown in other outings the ability to lean on his sinker and slider and to mix in a change-up. Against KC, he did vary the location of his fastball and place with most frequency this pitch on the top-left corner of the zone. KC batters countered by almost never swinging at his fastballs when they were outside of the middle of the zone and instead waiting for a propitious pitch location, which Slegers often obliged them. There is nothing special in Slegers’ fastball in terms of location, velocity, or spin. Nevertheless, the Royals didn’t get a hit with any of the eight fastballs of his that they put in play.
I don’t expect the Royals to be so unlucky again, although bad luck has been the story of their season against the fastball. They rank 10th in average exit velocity against it and are the second-most underachieving team against the fastball, based on the metric SLG-xSLG ,and likewise the second most against Slegers’ two other favorite pitches, the sinker and slider. Slegers’ sinker and slider, like his fastball, often find the middle of the plate. His slider lacks much horizontal movement or „slide.“ Last year, Slegers’ FIP was slightly worse, but his ERA was 6.46. In Triple A, his ERA was an awful (by professional standards) 3.55 before getting called up. So it’s not like he’s a transformed pitcher, he’s just gotten lucky. KC benefits from getting a second crack at him.
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Whereas Slegers has yet to find his prime—or even his professional readiness—Kansas City’s Ian Kennedy (1-8, 5.11 ERA) is past his prime. He’s returning from another injury, before which he had allowed five homers and 10 runs in his previous three starts.
Never in his career has Kennedy yielded a greater disparity between the percentage of his pitches landing in the strike zone and the opposing percentage of contact made. Opponents are able to be patient and selective, waiting for him to find the zone. Opponents are achieving the second-highest hard contact rate against Kennedy in his career. Kennedy’s favorite pitch is the fastball—he throws it 60% of the time. But, his opposing fastball numbers are the worst they’ve ever been. This pitch is yielding an opposing slugging percentage of .583. Kennedy once had the reputation of enhancing the perceived velocity of his fastball by throwing it up and inside against the batter. But now he concentrates its location in the middle of the plate. For example, he throws it with 5.90% frequency down the middle.
Minnesota has seen Kennedy plenty and with great success. Current Twins batters are hitting .326 and slugging .628 against him in 129 at-bats. They’ve hit 10 homers against him. Last year, Kennedy was 0-3 with a 6.43 ERA in five starts against Minnesota. Watch for Logan Morrison, who is 7-for-17 with a double, two triples, and two homers against him. Eduardo Escobar and Eddie Rosario are also hitting over .400 against him in over 15 at-bats.
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