Twins vs. Cubs: MLB Game Predictions
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Jose Berrios’ Improvement
I used to always go against Berrios if an opposing lineup possessed the personnel to exploit his struggles against right-handed batters.
But, as his current statistics show, Berrios has fixed his problem with right-handed batters.
One thing that Berrios has done to improve himself is that he’s worked on his fastball.
On the season, this pitch yields a .390 BA because of how much he struggled with it earlier in the season.
Yet so far in September, after three September starts, opponents are hitting .222 against this pitch.
Berrios’ fastball is important to him because it’s one of his primary pitches.
He throws four different pitches with between 19 and 29 percent frequency.
His fastball has become a strong component of that variety which helps keep him unpredictable.
Mainly, he locates this pitch better. Pitching chart percentages show that he does a better job of avoiding the middle of the plate when he throws this pitch.
Instead, his fastball's five most frequent strike locations are along a border of the zone.
Berrios achieves this precision while maintaining the pitch’s strong velocity. Its average velocity this season is 94.79 mph.
Berrios vs. Cub Batters
Chicago will present Berrios with a relatively high number of left-handed batters — with the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Jason Kipnis.
Throughout this season, Berrios has pitched superbly and at his best when facing left-handed hitters.
He is solid when facing lefties because he is comfortable employing two different classic weapons against opposite-handed batters.
These are the change-up and curveball. The former pitch yields a .200 BA while the latter yields a .177 BA.
Both play well off his fastball. His change-up, in particular, creates an unusually marked change of pace relative to his higher-velocity fastball.
For the same reason, his curveball reliably keeps hitters off-balance. He also locates it well, placing 25 percent of its strikes in the lowest right-corner of the zone.
Cub batters haven’t seen much of Berrios. For starters, expect Kipnis to struggle as he’s 4-for-23 (.174) with six strikeouts when facing Berrios in his career.
Yu Darvish
Darvish's surface stats — he’s 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA— do reflect how well he is pitching.
His ERA, FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding), and xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league-average ratio of fly balls to home runs) are each as low as they’ve ever been in his career.
Likewise, his command is as strong as it ever was for him. He’s giving up both fewer walks and fewer home runs than in any other season of his career.
In some respects, Darvish hasn’t really changed. For example, he’s throwing his slider/cutter about 45 percent of the time like he did last year.
The difference is that, this year, opponents are hitting .153 against his favorite pitch.
This pitch benefits from its noticeable uptick in velocity and change in movement.
More than he has before, he’s doing a better job of starting ahead in the count.
His career-best first-pitch strike percentage can hardly inspire surprise given the effectiveness of his cutter/slider, which is also his favorite first pitch.
Starting ahead 0-1 is important for a pitcher because it creates greater statistical likelihood that he gets the opposing batter out.
Form
One can only make a case to continue riding Darvish’s momentum.
In 10 starts this season, Darvish has allowed more than two runs twice. In the two exceptions, he allowed three runs each and his xFIP in both games remained under 2.50.
He’s allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 games.
Match-Up
In order to hit Darvish well, a lineup should at the very least rank well against his favorite pitch.
But the Twins rank easily outside the top 10 in slugging against this pitch from righties.
As for batters, Nelson Cruz may miss today’s game as his team takes precautions with his sore knee.
But he and Josh Donaldson hit worse than .200 each in their career against Darvish even though both combine for 34 career at-bats against him.
The Verdict
Both pitchers promise to maintain their strong form. When sportsbooks like Bovada release their first-half odds, be sure to take the first-half „under.“
Best Bet: First-Half Under (Odds TBA)
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Jose Berrios’ Improvement
I used to always go against Berrios if an opposing lineup possessed the personnel to exploit his struggles against right-handed batters.
But, as his current statistics show, Berrios has fixed his problem with right-handed batters.
One thing that Berrios has done to improve himself is that he’s worked on his fastball.
On the season, this pitch yields a .390 BA because of how much he struggled with it earlier in the season.
Yet so far in September, after three September starts, opponents are hitting .222 against this pitch.
Berrios’ fastball is important to him because it’s one of his primary pitches.
He throws four different pitches with between 19 and 29 percent frequency.
His fastball has become a strong component of that variety which helps keep him unpredictable.
Mainly, he locates this pitch better. Pitching chart percentages show that he does a better job of avoiding the middle of the plate when he throws this pitch.
Instead, his fastball's five most frequent strike locations are along a border of the zone.
Berrios achieves this precision while maintaining the pitch’s strong velocity. Its average velocity this season is 94.79 mph.
Berrios vs. Cub Batters
Chicago will present Berrios with a relatively high number of left-handed batters — with the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Jason Kipnis.
Throughout this season, Berrios has pitched superbly and at his best when facing left-handed hitters.
He is solid when facing lefties because he is comfortable employing two different classic weapons against opposite-handed batters.
These are the change-up and curveball. The former pitch yields a .200 BA while the latter yields a .177 BA.
Both play well off his fastball. His change-up, in particular, creates an unusually marked change of pace relative to his higher-velocity fastball.
For the same reason, his curveball reliably keeps hitters off-balance. He also locates it well, placing 25 percent of its strikes in the lowest right-corner of the zone.
Cub batters haven’t seen much of Berrios. For starters, expect Kipnis to struggle as he’s 4-for-23 (.174) with six strikeouts when facing Berrios in his career.
Yu Darvish
Darvish's surface stats — he’s 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA— do reflect how well he is pitching.
His ERA, FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding), and xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league-average ratio of fly balls to home runs) are each as low as they’ve ever been in his career.
Likewise, his command is as strong as it ever was for him. He’s giving up both fewer walks and fewer home runs than in any other season of his career.
In some respects, Darvish hasn’t really changed. For example, he’s throwing his slider/cutter about 45 percent of the time like he did last year.
The difference is that, this year, opponents are hitting .153 against his favorite pitch.
This pitch benefits from its noticeable uptick in velocity and change in movement.
More than he has before, he’s doing a better job of starting ahead in the count.
His career-best first-pitch strike percentage can hardly inspire surprise given the effectiveness of his cutter/slider, which is also his favorite first pitch.
Starting ahead 0-1 is important for a pitcher because it creates greater statistical likelihood that he gets the opposing batter out.
Form
One can only make a case to continue riding Darvish’s momentum.
In 10 starts this season, Darvish has allowed more than two runs twice. In the two exceptions, he allowed three runs each and his xFIP in both games remained under 2.50.
He’s allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 games.
Match-Up
In order to hit Darvish well, a lineup should at the very least rank well against his favorite pitch.
But the Twins rank easily outside the top 10 in slugging against this pitch from righties.
As for batters, Nelson Cruz may miss today’s game as his team takes precautions with his sore knee.
But he and Josh Donaldson hit worse than .200 each in their career against Darvish even though both combine for 34 career at-bats against him.
The Verdict
Both pitchers promise to maintain their strong form. When sportsbooks like Bovada release their first-half odds, be sure to take the first-half „under.“
Best Bet: First-Half Under (Odds TBA)
