Today's Plays Include a (+213) MLB Parlay
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Friday, April 29, 2022 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida
Dylan Bundy
Many bettors will be high on Twin starter Dylan Bundy going into today's game.
His low ERA may convince people to wager on Minnesota, which would make investing in the Rays cheaper.
I, however, am not a believer in Bundy.
Going beyond his ERA, he seems to have improved in terms of his control.
While it is objectively true that he is walking fewer batters this year, you must observe that two of the three teams that he's faced rank bottom three at limiting the rate at which they swing at pitches outside of the strike zone.
It is, of course, easier to avoid walking batters when they will swing at more pitches that should be balls.
As for his stuff, you have to give Bundy some credit.
He did appear to improve his slider by giving it greater horizontal movement.
However, he only throws this pitch against right-handed batters and he is going against a team that is known for loading its lineup with left-handed batters or switch-hitters.
Bundy's Spot Today
I dislike Bundy today because he suffers an 8.22 ERA in five career starts in Tampa Bay's Tropicana Field.
Look out for Kevin Kiermaier and Brett Phillips. Both slug well over .700 in at least eight career at-bats against Bundy.
Corey Kluber
There are sensationalists looking to deride every good pitcher from Clayton Kershaw to Corey Kluber.
One thing that they like to point out is their velocity decline.
This is a silly thing to emphasize in Kluber's case because he has been dealing with a decline in velocity since 2014. It is nothing new to him.
Kluber still boasts three primary pitches that, as heat maps show, he ably locates along the edges of the strike zone.
His last start notwithstanding, his numbers show that he remains a dangerous pitcher.
Kluber vs. Twin Batters
Primarily, Kluber throws a cutter, curveball, and sinker.
These are the three pitches he throws with over 25 percent frequency.
He matches up well against Twin batters because they rank 27thin slugging against these pitches from righties.
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals
Friday, April 29, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
On Fire
Team form is something worth considering in a sport like baseball.
Unlike football, for example, teams play just about every day.
So, their rhythm will carry from one day to the next if a consistent pattern emerges.
New York's consistent pattern is this: they are winning everything right now.
Currently, the Yanks have won six games in a row. They won all of those games but one by three runs or more.
Moreover, they scored 10 runs or more in three of their past four games.
Nestor Cortes
Yankee starter Nestor Cortes is enjoying a career-best year right now.
His strikeout rate has skyrocketed while he is likewise allowing fewer walks and home runs than ever before.
Hence, his ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) are both well under 1.50.
A significant reason for his improvement is his cutter.
He is throwing this pitch with way higher frequency than he did last year and it is yielding a .080 BA and .120 slugging rate.
I like Cortes in particular today because he is a lefty and the Royals rank 29thin slugging .275 against lefties.
Kris Bubic
Kris Bubic is coming off his second outing in which he failed to make it past two innings.
Today may very well be his third such outing.
Bubic is a lefty and the Yankees rank third in slugging .444 against lefties.
Furthermore, they rank sixth in slugging against Bubic's top pitches from lefties.
Bubic has faced two Yankee batters over five times. Josh Donaldson slugs .909 against him and Marwin Gonzalez slugs .667 against him.
Best Bet: Parlay Rays ML at -130 & Yankees RL at -130 at +213 with BetOnline
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Friday, April 29, 2022 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida
Dylan Bundy
Many bettors will be high on Twin starter Dylan Bundy going into today's game.
His low ERA may convince people to wager on Minnesota, which would make investing in the Rays cheaper.
I, however, am not a believer in Bundy.
Going beyond his ERA, he seems to have improved in terms of his control.
While it is objectively true that he is walking fewer batters this year, you must observe that two of the three teams that he's faced rank bottom three at limiting the rate at which they swing at pitches outside of the strike zone.
It is, of course, easier to avoid walking batters when they will swing at more pitches that should be balls.
As for his stuff, you have to give Bundy some credit.
He did appear to improve his slider by giving it greater horizontal movement.
However, he only throws this pitch against right-handed batters and he is going against a team that is known for loading its lineup with left-handed batters or switch-hitters.
Bundy's Spot Today
I dislike Bundy today because he suffers an 8.22 ERA in five career starts in Tampa Bay's Tropicana Field.
Look out for Kevin Kiermaier and Brett Phillips. Both slug well over .700 in at least eight career at-bats against Bundy.
Corey Kluber
There are sensationalists looking to deride every good pitcher from Clayton Kershaw to Corey Kluber.
One thing that they like to point out is their velocity decline.
This is a silly thing to emphasize in Kluber's case because he has been dealing with a decline in velocity since 2014. It is nothing new to him.
Kluber still boasts three primary pitches that, as heat maps show, he ably locates along the edges of the strike zone.
His last start notwithstanding, his numbers show that he remains a dangerous pitcher.
Kluber vs. Twin Batters
Primarily, Kluber throws a cutter, curveball, and sinker.
These are the three pitches he throws with over 25 percent frequency.
He matches up well against Twin batters because they rank 27thin slugging against these pitches from righties.
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals
Friday, April 29, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
On Fire
Team form is something worth considering in a sport like baseball.
Unlike football, for example, teams play just about every day.
So, their rhythm will carry from one day to the next if a consistent pattern emerges.
New York's consistent pattern is this: they are winning everything right now.
Currently, the Yanks have won six games in a row. They won all of those games but one by three runs or more.
Moreover, they scored 10 runs or more in three of their past four games.
Nestor Cortes
Yankee starter Nestor Cortes is enjoying a career-best year right now.
His strikeout rate has skyrocketed while he is likewise allowing fewer walks and home runs than ever before.
Hence, his ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) are both well under 1.50.
A significant reason for his improvement is his cutter.
He is throwing this pitch with way higher frequency than he did last year and it is yielding a .080 BA and .120 slugging rate.
I like Cortes in particular today because he is a lefty and the Royals rank 29thin slugging .275 against lefties.
Kris Bubic
Kris Bubic is coming off his second outing in which he failed to make it past two innings.
Today may very well be his third such outing.
Bubic is a lefty and the Yankees rank third in slugging .444 against lefties.
Furthermore, they rank sixth in slugging against Bubic's top pitches from lefties.
Bubic has faced two Yankee batters over five times. Josh Donaldson slugs .909 against him and Marwin Gonzalez slugs .667 against him.
Best Bet: Parlay Rays ML at -130 & Yankees RL at -130 at +213 with BetOnline
