Turn out the lights

[tuck321]

Cole on 4 days
5-5 3.21 ERA

Wainwright on 5
6-1 160 ERA

Wainwright can be beaten.
Take away his catcher.
Put in Kershaw
Put in Iwakuma
He is simply a great pitcher
But he has his catcher and he has his 5 days rest and he is pitching for his team in a very important game.
A very good rookie pitcher can not win this game.
A very good rookie pitcher that the Cardinals just saw will not win this game
Wainwright has 3 straight home wins vs Pitt. this year
Tomorrow will be 4.

 

[tuck321]

I might be wrong. This is not Texas where a team that simply could not give support to Yu Darvish fell down and its not Saint Louis with Lance who almost had to lose but Cole has won 6 straight and his last 5 were of elite quality. He has given up 3 home runs in his last 10 starts. I really need to think more about this. Sorry for a hurried post.

 

[tuck321]

Axiom Every rookie gets popped.
The closest thing to that with Cole was 08-08-13 playing Jose Fernandez and winning a 5-4 game. 11 days earlier he faced Jose for the first time and lost a 3-2 game going 7 innings and giving up 3 runs. I thought that was very interesting.
Box scores of the last game.
[TABLE="class: s-o"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: dataheadc"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] STL [/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] -115[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] PIT [/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 106[/TD]
[TD="align: center"] [/TD]
[TD="align: center"] 7.5[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Interesting question. How in the world did the Cards not score on Morton first 5? Conclusion is they have to be hitting very poorly.
This season Cole has faced the Cards a total of 6 innings. This season Wainwright has faced the Pirates 4 times for a total of 28 innings. He faced Burnett, Locke and Morton at home and wen 3-0 and lost to Locke away. Morton away did the best and was 8-3 away this year.
Locke away was 6-8
Burnett away was 5-11
Cole away this year is 6-2 and the 2 losses were each by 1 run.
Cole after a loss this year 6-2
Off topic possibly but lets compare Cole to Wacha.
Last 20 Cole 13-7. Last 10 Wacha 4-6.
Wainwright has played at home 10 times vs Pitt
6-4 record. I think it is reasonable to assume this is the best Pitt team he has faced and there is no question that it is the best starter he has faced.
The umpire in the game is James Joyce. Home teams have finished minus last 3 years and Wainwright has an ERA of 3.94 with him and is 0-2 based on 16 innings with 1 game away and 1 game at home.
My sense of where this game is has changed a lot. That could mean its late and I am biased and sleepy. In any case, Game On.
GL

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Axiom Every rookie gets popped.

Interesting question. How in the world did the Cards not score on Morton first 5? Conclusion is they have to be hitting very poorly.

To me, it's as simple as this. The Cards luckboxed (use any term you prefer, that's mine) their way to a record setting effort for batting w/RISP in the reg. season. In this post season, that production has gone bye-bye big time. It's called a regression to the mean. For this game, they might hit 3 solo shots & still win 3-1 while failing to deliver a single hit w/RISP, but that would be applying a band-aid to a severed limb - it's not going to get them past the Dodgers. So, this isn't a lineup functioning to the normal degree where that axiom can be trusted to, on balance, apply here. That's not saying it can't or won't, but they played game 4 under the same sudden death conditions, and facing a merely OK-to-good pitcher they did sweet FA.

Another way of putting it is, they basically needed a no-hitter to force this game 5. The chances they're going to get 2 in a row? If I can see odds I like, I think +1.5 will be it for me. If I don't, then I'll see if I can find something I like just as much to parlay with it. At the least I sense a close game, I don't believe either team is functioning in such a way as Pitt gets blown out here.

 

[aplous]

If StL gets through to NLCS ill have a mortgage payment bet on LA series....hoping the home field for StL makes the price a little better.

 

[Inspekdah]

So what do you like tuck lol

 

[geopackiv]

Cole on 4 days
5-5 3.21 ERA

Wainwright on 5
6-1 160 ERA

Wainwright can be beaten.
Take away his catcher.
Put in Kershaw
Put in Iwakuma
He is simply a great pitcher
But he has his catcher and he has his 5 days rest and he is pitching for his team in a very important game.
A very good rookie pitcher can not win this game.
A very good rookie pitcher that the Cardinals just saw will not win this game
Wainwright has 3 straight home wins vs Pitt. this year
Tomorrow will be 4.

So what do you like tuck lol

bolded

 

[tuck321]

Played Pitt first 5 and game. Very tired of the old timers baseball monopoly. Noted today that Pops from the RX was on Pitt too.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

DPs & homers (none w/RISP), tuck, DPs & homers.