Prop Madness!!!!!
Looking at team defense numbers you may be more inclined to play Jeff Wilson, and I can't fault that play at all. He should get a ton of carries with Mostert likely out vs a bad run D 5.1ypc & 14 tds allowed. Houston by the numbers looks to have a good pass defense tied for second best with only 9 tds allowed all season! This looks like a play very much against the numbers. But I think it's more a regression to the mean.
Houston is allowing 7.2 yards per pass despite only 9 tds allowed. 17 teams have allowed over 6.5 yards per pass, and 15 of them have allowed 14 or more tds. The Ravens have allowed 13 & the Bears 12. Houston to me is due to allow some passing tds with the way they have been giving up passing yardage. Enter Tyreek, who has been relatively quiet the last couple 6 targets last game & just 8 the week previous. Still had 143 & 1 td on 8 targets. He's a beast & I think he gets a bigger target share this week.
So I think the Texans are due to give up passing tds & Hill is due for a 150 2td kind of day. 2tds pays +420 but I think he blows by 100 today so +650 it is!
I think you could make a case for Henry yds prop over but I do think it's forever inflated. I'll take a shot at him to score 2tds in a game that might be back & forth. I think Burks yds over could be a great play as well as he gets more involved in the offense.
Jets are favored by a tuddy after not being able to score at all lw???? Tells me everything I need to know. Staying away from the spread in this one but I do think the Jets win/Cover & actually score tds. You think they have White throwing all over the place? Naw, they might throw some misdirection screens etc but I doubt they air it out. Carter is still the #1 & I think he gets more touches than James Robinson. The Bears have allowed a league worst 18 rushing tds & 4.7 ypc not so great either. Carter has had some bad numbers but he played the Pats 2x, Broncos. He ran all over Buffalo & I think there's a great chance he gets 60+ vs the Bears.
Rachaad White 2tds pure longshot having only scored 1 td all season. 22 carries last week and he shined, a big td day is on the way for him. Browns 16 tds allowed 4.8 ypc TB is successful working the pass off feeding the run game so I think he gets 20+ touches again. Yds over probably hits & td is only -105 but yeah give me the +575 I'm a gambler.