Turkey Week DR. BOB-INGAME
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
I don't know if that makes me more or less comfortable looking at USC tonight.
Correct, my typo there. Line didn't move off three though at all
PURPLE & GOLD
Sporting my Footie Pajamas
huh? so is he on USC or ASU?
I need to know which side to fade. jk
I need to know which side to fade. jk
Jasper11
Pretty much a regular
I'm inclined to think it does. Bob is nothing if he isn't consistent when he gets rolling.
RunningBackU
Pretty much a regular
anyone have them?
Dr Bob
3 Star Selection
***PITTSBURGH 23 S. Florida (-10.0) 24
09:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
South Florida came through with a 55-17 win over Louisville as a 4-Star Best Bet last week, but that win sets the Bulls up in a very negative 12-51 ATS road favorite letdown situation this week. Pittsburgh is certainly good enough defensively to keep this game tight and teams with a good defense are pretty good bets as big double-digit underdogs. The Panthers, in fact, are 4-0 ATS this season as an underdog of 10 points or more, including a 24-17 upset home win as a 10 point home dog to Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has allowed just 4.5 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team and that unit is just as good as South Florida’s well publicized stop unit that has also yielded just 4.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl. The difference in these teams is offense (Pitt is 0.9 yppl worse than average while South Florida is 0.4 yppl better than average) and turnovers (USF is +12 in turnover margin while Pitt is -5). My math model does project a 76 yards and 0.9 yppl advantage for South Florida in this game but you can’t expect South Florida to continue to be as fortunate in the turnover department as they’ve been in recent games. My math model favors USF by just 8 points in this game and the situation against the Bulls is very strong. South Florida is an impressive 40-28-1 ATS lifetime in all games, but the Bulls are 0-5 ATS in conference road games following consecutive victories, which verifies the flat spot they are in today. I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 3-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 2-Stars from +9 ½ down to +7 ½ points.
3 Star Selection
***Miami Ohio 33 OHIO (-2.0) 25
11:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Miami-Ohio has locked up a trip to the MAC Championship game but the Redhawks still haven’t become bowl eligible as a loss in this game coupled with a loss to Central Michigan in the MAC title game would leave Miami with a losing record and no bowl game. The Redhawks also have a score to settle with rival Ohio, who won last year’s game 34-24. Miami applies to a 36-5 ATS subset of an 87-29 ATS revenge situation and my math model favors Miami-Ohio by ½ a point in this game – so we have a little line value to go with the good situation. I’ll take Miami-Ohio in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 2- Stars at pick or -1.
3 Star Selection
***NORTH CAROLINA (-14.0) 38 Duke 14
12:30 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
North Carolina is a much better team than their 3-8 record indicates and the Tarheels will finally get to show off their talents against a horrible Duke squad that has lost 5 consecutive games by 17 points or more (0-5 ATS) and just lost by 21 points to a horrible Notre Dame team. North Carolina has averaged 5.2 yards per play this season while their solid defensive unit had yielded just 5.1 yppl and the Tarheels have outplayed a schedule that rates at 3.4 points better than average. The teams that North Carolina has faced would out-gain an average team 5.5 yppl to 5.1 yppl, so the Tarheels rate at 0.1 yppl better than average on offense and 0.4 yppl better than average defensively. Duke has faced a schedule of teams that is slightly worse than North Carolina’s compensated numbers and the Blue Devils have been out-gained 4.3 yppl to 6.1 yppl by those teams - and Duke’s defense is 0.2 yppl worse since losing their best defensive lineman Patrick Bailey 5 games ago. My math model projects a 209 total yards advantage for UNC in this game and the Tarheels’ have a solid special teams edge. Duke is also 6-16 ATS under coach Ted Roof when they are not an underdog of more than 14 points and the only times they cover in that role is if the opponent is coming into the game on a winning streak (Duke is 3-15 ATS in that pointspread range if the opponent is not off 2 wins). The math model favors North Carolina by 24 ½ points in this game and gives the Tarheels a 62% chance of covering at -14 points based on past predictability of my math model. The Tarheels would still be worthy of a Best Bet up to -16 ½ points (57%). I’ll take North Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars from -14 ½ to -16 ½ points and the Tarheels would be a Strong Opinion at -17 points (55.3% chance of covering).
3 Star Selection
***Alabama 23 AUBURN (-6.0) 19
05:00 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Alabama was caught looking ahead to this rivalry game and lost straight up to UL Monroe as a 24 ½ point home favorite. A 6-5 record and a loss to a Sun Belt team is not exactly what Alabama fans envisioned with Nick Saban signed on as the coach of the Tide. However, a win over bitter rival Auburn will surely help heal some wounds and I expect the Crimson Tide to play their best game of the season today. Alabama applies to a very strong 64-14 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s upset loss and Auburn applies to a negative 17-48 ATS team off a late season bye angle. Underdogs of more than 4 points are 11-3-1 ATS in this rivalry and Alabama’s loss last week has supplied us with a little line value (my math model favors Auburn by just 4 ½ points). I’ll take Alabama in a 3- Star Best Bet at +4 points or more, for 4-Stars at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +3 ½ or +3 points.
2 Star Selection
**STANFORD (-3.5) 26 Notre Dame 14
12:30 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Notre Dame finally recorded a legitimate win last week, as they beat a horrible Duke team 28-7 while out-gaining the Blue Devils 5.3 yards per play to 3.6 yppl. Notre Dame’s other win at UCLA was a complete fluke, as they got 7 turnovers from the Bruins’ 3rd string quarterback and won despite only gaining 140 total yards. My math model actually favored Notre Dame by 9 ½ points in that game, which tells you how bad Duke is. Stanford may be the worst team in the Pac-10, but the Cardinal are not that bad on a national scale and they should be favored by at least 10 points in this game. Stanford’s offense has averaged only 4.5 yppl this season, but the Cardinal have faced teams that would combine to allow just 4.8 yppl to an average team and they rate at just 0.2 yppl worse than average with Tavita Pritchard at quarterback. Notre Dame’s defense is 0.7 yppl better than average so the Irish have a 0.9 yppl advantage over Stanford’s offense. That advantage won’t be enough since the Irish are 1.8 yppl worse than average offensively (3.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) while Stanford’s defense is only 0.3 yppl worse than average (6.2 yppl allowed to a schedule of good offensive teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defensive team). So, the Cardinal have a 1.5 yppl advantage over Notre Dame’s offense. Notre Dame does have 1.4 points edge in projected turnovers, but Stanford has a huge edge in special teams and my math model favors the Cardinal by 11 ½ points in this game and gives them a 59.3% chance of covering based on the historical predictability of my math model. Some of you may think that Notre Dame’s offense is improving based on the 96 points that they’ve scored in their last 3 games, but the Irish only averaged 4.4 yppl in those games against Navy, Air Force, and Duke – who would combine to allow 6.4 yppl to an average offensive team. So, Notre Dame’s offense has been 2.0 yppl worse than average in those 3 games, which is actually a bit worse than their season rating of -1.8 yppl. The Irish are just as bad as they’ve been all season and Stanford will enjoy taking a break from the nation’s 3rd toughest schedule. Stanford’s only game against a team at Notre Dame’s level resulted in a 37-0 win over San Jose State and I see a pretty comfortable win for the Cardinal in this game. I’ll take Stanford in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 or less.
2 Star Selection
**WEST VIRGINIA (-17.5) 38 Connecticut 12
12:30 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Connecticut’s 9-2 record will certainly get the attention of West Virginia’s players and the Mountaineers will be motivated by the potential for a National Championship game appearance. The Mounties apply to a very strong 34-6-1 ATS subset of a 91-37-2 ATS situation that plays on teams with one or fewer losses late in the season and I expect West Virginia’s top game today. Connecticut is certainly no pushover, as they have a solid defense (4.7 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team) and take care of the ball (quarterback Lorenzen has thrown just 5 interceptions). However, the Huskies have benefited from 21 defensive interceptions in 11 games and they cannot depend on such good fortune against a quarterback in Patrick White that has thrown only 3 interceptions in 10 games this season. Connecticut’s good defense also doesn’t match up well with a run-oriented West Virginia attack, as the Huskies are great against the pass and just average defending the run (4.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.4 yprp against an average team). The Huskies strong pass defense won’t do them much good in this game, as Patrick White will simply take off an run if he doesn’t find anyone open (White has 984 yards on 141 rushing plays). West Virginia averaged 6.8 yards per play against a good Rutgers defense with similar characteristics, as the Scarlet Knights are also very good defending the pass and just average against the run. Connecticut’s offense is a bit worse than average and I don’t see them doing much damage against a good West Virginia stop unit that has yielded just 4.6 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense. My math model takes into account the favorable match-up for West Virginia’s offense and favors the Mountaineers by 19 points. I only need a fair line to play the strong angle favoring the Mounties and I’ll take West Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -19 points or less and for 3-Stars at -17 points or less (-115 odds or less) .
Strong Opinion
Miami Fla 21 BOSTON COLLEGE (-14.5) 30
09:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Miami Florida failed to cover at Virginia Tech last week despite being in a very favorable situation. The Hurricanes once again apply to a very strong situation – a 64-11 ATS blowout bounce-back situation – while Boston College applies to a negative 15-59 ATS double-digit home favorite letdown situation that is based on their upset win at Clemson last week. Boston College has clinched a berth in the ACC Championship game and it may be tough for the Eagles to get up for a team that has lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 games. Boston College does have revenge, but that was under a different coach and the Eagles always have revenge against Miami (they haven’t beaten them since 1982) and it never seems to matter. My math model favors Boston College by 13 ½ points, so Miami’s recent bad play has supplied us with a little line value. Miami can become bowl eligible with a win today and the Hurricanes are still playing hard (their defense allowed a respectable 5.3 yppl to Virginia Tech but they were hurt by a -3 turnover margin). I realize that it’s not easy to bet on a Miami team that has allowed 92 points in their last two games, but teams with a win percentage of .333 or higher are actually 47-25-1 ATS after losing back-to-back games in which they allowed 41 points or more in each game, and the Hurricanes still have a better than average defense (5.1 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team). The line is fair and the situation is strongly in favor of Miami and I should be betting this game. I just can’t seem to pull the trigger and make the Hurricanes a Best Bet, so I will consider Miami a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more and I’d make the Hurricanes a 2-Star Best Bet at +16 points or more.
Strong Opinion
FLORIDA (-13.5) 40 Florida St. 21
02:00 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Florida has slipped up a couple of times this season and lost to teams that they should have beaten (Auburn and Georgia), but the Gators are still one of the very best teams in the nation. No team has a better offense than Florida’s attack, which has averaged 7.1 yards per play and 43 points per game against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl and 24 points per game to an average team. Florida State is only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team), which is actually the average level of defense that the Gators have faced this year (so scoring around their average of 43 points should be expected). The Gators do have a problem defending the pass, allowing 6.4 yards per pass play to teams that would aveage 5.9 yppp against an average team, but they stuff the run (3.7 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp) and Drew Weatherford is not likely to fully exploit Florida’s secondary given that he is a below average passer that rarely throws the ball down the field (he’s averaged a modest 6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback while throwing for an average of just 11.4 yards per completion). Overall, Florida’s defense is 0.2 yppl better than average while Florida State’s offense is 0.4 yppl worse than average with Weatherford at quarterback (the Seminoles’ rushing attack has mustered only 4.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team). My math model favors Florida by 20 points in this game and there are situations that favor both sides in this game. The stronger situation favors Florida State and that will keep me from making Florida a Best Bet in this game. I’ll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Clemson (-2.5) 29 SOUTH CAROLINA 21
04:00 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
I’ve won Best Bets going against South Carolina in their last two games against Arkansas and Florida and I’m tempted to do so again. The Gamecocks have trouble stopping the run (5.4 yards per rushing play allowed) and Clemson has two good running backs to do some damage. The Gamecocks had been very good defending the pass this season, but the loss of top cover corner Captain Munnerlyn (he played just one snap against Florida and is done for the season) hurts that pass defense and South Carolina allowed Florida to average 9.5 yards per pass play against them last week. Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper has been just a bit better than average on a yards per pass play basis this season but he has only thrown 5 interceptions all season, so the Tigers should be able to move the ball well on the ground and adequately through the air. South Carolina’s offense is just 0.1 yards per play better than average this season and they’ll likely struggle against a solid Clemson defense that has allowed just 4.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Overall, my math model favors Clemson by 3 ½ points and the Tigers apply to a decent 169-100-2 ATS revenge situation. Like a lot of season ending rivalry games the road team has been profitable in this series, going 20-6 ATS since 1981 and 13-2 ATS with revenge. I’ll consider Clemson a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.
3 Star Selection
***PITTSBURGH 23 S. Florida (-10.0) 24
09:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
South Florida came through with a 55-17 win over Louisville as a 4-Star Best Bet last week, but that win sets the Bulls up in a very negative 12-51 ATS road favorite letdown situation this week. Pittsburgh is certainly good enough defensively to keep this game tight and teams with a good defense are pretty good bets as big double-digit underdogs. The Panthers, in fact, are 4-0 ATS this season as an underdog of 10 points or more, including a 24-17 upset home win as a 10 point home dog to Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has allowed just 4.5 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team and that unit is just as good as South Florida’s well publicized stop unit that has also yielded just 4.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl. The difference in these teams is offense (Pitt is 0.9 yppl worse than average while South Florida is 0.4 yppl better than average) and turnovers (USF is +12 in turnover margin while Pitt is -5). My math model does project a 76 yards and 0.9 yppl advantage for South Florida in this game but you can’t expect South Florida to continue to be as fortunate in the turnover department as they’ve been in recent games. My math model favors USF by just 8 points in this game and the situation against the Bulls is very strong. South Florida is an impressive 40-28-1 ATS lifetime in all games, but the Bulls are 0-5 ATS in conference road games following consecutive victories, which verifies the flat spot they are in today. I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 3-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 2-Stars from +9 ½ down to +7 ½ points.
3 Star Selection
***Miami Ohio 33 OHIO (-2.0) 25
11:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Miami-Ohio has locked up a trip to the MAC Championship game but the Redhawks still haven’t become bowl eligible as a loss in this game coupled with a loss to Central Michigan in the MAC title game would leave Miami with a losing record and no bowl game. The Redhawks also have a score to settle with rival Ohio, who won last year’s game 34-24. Miami applies to a 36-5 ATS subset of an 87-29 ATS revenge situation and my math model favors Miami-Ohio by ½ a point in this game – so we have a little line value to go with the good situation. I’ll take Miami-Ohio in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 2- Stars at pick or -1.
3 Star Selection
***NORTH CAROLINA (-14.0) 38 Duke 14
12:30 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
North Carolina is a much better team than their 3-8 record indicates and the Tarheels will finally get to show off their talents against a horrible Duke squad that has lost 5 consecutive games by 17 points or more (0-5 ATS) and just lost by 21 points to a horrible Notre Dame team. North Carolina has averaged 5.2 yards per play this season while their solid defensive unit had yielded just 5.1 yppl and the Tarheels have outplayed a schedule that rates at 3.4 points better than average. The teams that North Carolina has faced would out-gain an average team 5.5 yppl to 5.1 yppl, so the Tarheels rate at 0.1 yppl better than average on offense and 0.4 yppl better than average defensively. Duke has faced a schedule of teams that is slightly worse than North Carolina’s compensated numbers and the Blue Devils have been out-gained 4.3 yppl to 6.1 yppl by those teams - and Duke’s defense is 0.2 yppl worse since losing their best defensive lineman Patrick Bailey 5 games ago. My math model projects a 209 total yards advantage for UNC in this game and the Tarheels’ have a solid special teams edge. Duke is also 6-16 ATS under coach Ted Roof when they are not an underdog of more than 14 points and the only times they cover in that role is if the opponent is coming into the game on a winning streak (Duke is 3-15 ATS in that pointspread range if the opponent is not off 2 wins). The math model favors North Carolina by 24 ½ points in this game and gives the Tarheels a 62% chance of covering at -14 points based on past predictability of my math model. The Tarheels would still be worthy of a Best Bet up to -16 ½ points (57%). I’ll take North Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars from -14 ½ to -16 ½ points and the Tarheels would be a Strong Opinion at -17 points (55.3% chance of covering).
3 Star Selection
***Alabama 23 AUBURN (-6.0) 19
05:00 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Alabama was caught looking ahead to this rivalry game and lost straight up to UL Monroe as a 24 ½ point home favorite. A 6-5 record and a loss to a Sun Belt team is not exactly what Alabama fans envisioned with Nick Saban signed on as the coach of the Tide. However, a win over bitter rival Auburn will surely help heal some wounds and I expect the Crimson Tide to play their best game of the season today. Alabama applies to a very strong 64-14 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s upset loss and Auburn applies to a negative 17-48 ATS team off a late season bye angle. Underdogs of more than 4 points are 11-3-1 ATS in this rivalry and Alabama’s loss last week has supplied us with a little line value (my math model favors Auburn by just 4 ½ points). I’ll take Alabama in a 3- Star Best Bet at +4 points or more, for 4-Stars at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +3 ½ or +3 points.
2 Star Selection
**STANFORD (-3.5) 26 Notre Dame 14
12:30 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Notre Dame finally recorded a legitimate win last week, as they beat a horrible Duke team 28-7 while out-gaining the Blue Devils 5.3 yards per play to 3.6 yppl. Notre Dame’s other win at UCLA was a complete fluke, as they got 7 turnovers from the Bruins’ 3rd string quarterback and won despite only gaining 140 total yards. My math model actually favored Notre Dame by 9 ½ points in that game, which tells you how bad Duke is. Stanford may be the worst team in the Pac-10, but the Cardinal are not that bad on a national scale and they should be favored by at least 10 points in this game. Stanford’s offense has averaged only 4.5 yppl this season, but the Cardinal have faced teams that would combine to allow just 4.8 yppl to an average team and they rate at just 0.2 yppl worse than average with Tavita Pritchard at quarterback. Notre Dame’s defense is 0.7 yppl better than average so the Irish have a 0.9 yppl advantage over Stanford’s offense. That advantage won’t be enough since the Irish are 1.8 yppl worse than average offensively (3.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) while Stanford’s defense is only 0.3 yppl worse than average (6.2 yppl allowed to a schedule of good offensive teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defensive team). So, the Cardinal have a 1.5 yppl advantage over Notre Dame’s offense. Notre Dame does have 1.4 points edge in projected turnovers, but Stanford has a huge edge in special teams and my math model favors the Cardinal by 11 ½ points in this game and gives them a 59.3% chance of covering based on the historical predictability of my math model. Some of you may think that Notre Dame’s offense is improving based on the 96 points that they’ve scored in their last 3 games, but the Irish only averaged 4.4 yppl in those games against Navy, Air Force, and Duke – who would combine to allow 6.4 yppl to an average offensive team. So, Notre Dame’s offense has been 2.0 yppl worse than average in those 3 games, which is actually a bit worse than their season rating of -1.8 yppl. The Irish are just as bad as they’ve been all season and Stanford will enjoy taking a break from the nation’s 3rd toughest schedule. Stanford’s only game against a team at Notre Dame’s level resulted in a 37-0 win over San Jose State and I see a pretty comfortable win for the Cardinal in this game. I’ll take Stanford in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 or less.
2 Star Selection
**WEST VIRGINIA (-17.5) 38 Connecticut 12
12:30 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Connecticut’s 9-2 record will certainly get the attention of West Virginia’s players and the Mountaineers will be motivated by the potential for a National Championship game appearance. The Mounties apply to a very strong 34-6-1 ATS subset of a 91-37-2 ATS situation that plays on teams with one or fewer losses late in the season and I expect West Virginia’s top game today. Connecticut is certainly no pushover, as they have a solid defense (4.7 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team) and take care of the ball (quarterback Lorenzen has thrown just 5 interceptions). However, the Huskies have benefited from 21 defensive interceptions in 11 games and they cannot depend on such good fortune against a quarterback in Patrick White that has thrown only 3 interceptions in 10 games this season. Connecticut’s good defense also doesn’t match up well with a run-oriented West Virginia attack, as the Huskies are great against the pass and just average defending the run (4.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.4 yprp against an average team). The Huskies strong pass defense won’t do them much good in this game, as Patrick White will simply take off an run if he doesn’t find anyone open (White has 984 yards on 141 rushing plays). West Virginia averaged 6.8 yards per play against a good Rutgers defense with similar characteristics, as the Scarlet Knights are also very good defending the pass and just average against the run. Connecticut’s offense is a bit worse than average and I don’t see them doing much damage against a good West Virginia stop unit that has yielded just 4.6 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense. My math model takes into account the favorable match-up for West Virginia’s offense and favors the Mountaineers by 19 points. I only need a fair line to play the strong angle favoring the Mounties and I’ll take West Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -19 points or less and for 3-Stars at -17 points or less (-115 odds or less) .
Strong Opinion
Miami Fla 21 BOSTON COLLEGE (-14.5) 30
09:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Miami Florida failed to cover at Virginia Tech last week despite being in a very favorable situation. The Hurricanes once again apply to a very strong situation – a 64-11 ATS blowout bounce-back situation – while Boston College applies to a negative 15-59 ATS double-digit home favorite letdown situation that is based on their upset win at Clemson last week. Boston College has clinched a berth in the ACC Championship game and it may be tough for the Eagles to get up for a team that has lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 games. Boston College does have revenge, but that was under a different coach and the Eagles always have revenge against Miami (they haven’t beaten them since 1982) and it never seems to matter. My math model favors Boston College by 13 ½ points, so Miami’s recent bad play has supplied us with a little line value. Miami can become bowl eligible with a win today and the Hurricanes are still playing hard (their defense allowed a respectable 5.3 yppl to Virginia Tech but they were hurt by a -3 turnover margin). I realize that it’s not easy to bet on a Miami team that has allowed 92 points in their last two games, but teams with a win percentage of .333 or higher are actually 47-25-1 ATS after losing back-to-back games in which they allowed 41 points or more in each game, and the Hurricanes still have a better than average defense (5.1 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team). The line is fair and the situation is strongly in favor of Miami and I should be betting this game. I just can’t seem to pull the trigger and make the Hurricanes a Best Bet, so I will consider Miami a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more and I’d make the Hurricanes a 2-Star Best Bet at +16 points or more.
Strong Opinion
FLORIDA (-13.5) 40 Florida St. 21
02:00 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Florida has slipped up a couple of times this season and lost to teams that they should have beaten (Auburn and Georgia), but the Gators are still one of the very best teams in the nation. No team has a better offense than Florida’s attack, which has averaged 7.1 yards per play and 43 points per game against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl and 24 points per game to an average team. Florida State is only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team), which is actually the average level of defense that the Gators have faced this year (so scoring around their average of 43 points should be expected). The Gators do have a problem defending the pass, allowing 6.4 yards per pass play to teams that would aveage 5.9 yppp against an average team, but they stuff the run (3.7 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp) and Drew Weatherford is not likely to fully exploit Florida’s secondary given that he is a below average passer that rarely throws the ball down the field (he’s averaged a modest 6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback while throwing for an average of just 11.4 yards per completion). Overall, Florida’s defense is 0.2 yppl better than average while Florida State’s offense is 0.4 yppl worse than average with Weatherford at quarterback (the Seminoles’ rushing attack has mustered only 4.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team). My math model favors Florida by 20 points in this game and there are situations that favor both sides in this game. The stronger situation favors Florida State and that will keep me from making Florida a Best Bet in this game. I’ll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Clemson (-2.5) 29 SOUTH CAROLINA 21
04:00 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
I’ve won Best Bets going against South Carolina in their last two games against Arkansas and Florida and I’m tempted to do so again. The Gamecocks have trouble stopping the run (5.4 yards per rushing play allowed) and Clemson has two good running backs to do some damage. The Gamecocks had been very good defending the pass this season, but the loss of top cover corner Captain Munnerlyn (he played just one snap against Florida and is done for the season) hurts that pass defense and South Carolina allowed Florida to average 9.5 yards per pass play against them last week. Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper has been just a bit better than average on a yards per pass play basis this season but he has only thrown 5 interceptions all season, so the Tigers should be able to move the ball well on the ground and adequately through the air. South Carolina’s offense is just 0.1 yards per play better than average this season and they’ll likely struggle against a solid Clemson defense that has allowed just 4.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Overall, my math model favors Clemson by 3 ½ points and the Tigers apply to a decent 169-100-2 ATS revenge situation. Like a lot of season ending rivalry games the road team has been profitable in this series, going 20-6 ATS since 1981 and 13-2 ATS with revenge. I’ll consider Clemson a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.
GoBucksIndy
Pretty much a regular
Thanks for the write ups. How many Stars were his plays on Arizona St. and LSU?
GoBucksIndy
Pretty much a regular
^
Unless something crazy happens, it looks like another losing week for Bob. How many stars is he down on the year?
Unless something crazy happens, it looks like another losing week for Bob. How many stars is he down on the year?
rwhmobile
Well-Known Member
What do you think about his Alabama pick ? I see you are a War Eagle.
GoBucksIndy
Pretty much a regular
1-6 -14 Stars....... Who is still paying this guy?
GoBucksIndy
Pretty much a regular
Wow, 1-7 -17 Stars. I would love to hear how he is spinning this week to his sheep.
Mark's Madness
Member
Well here it is. It's long as hell and full of whining:
College Football Recap - 2007
I know you're all very disappointed with what happened this week and with the season overall, as this will turn out to be my worst College football season in my 21 years as a professional handicapper - and only my 5th unprofitable season (only the 3rd under 50%). Those of you that are sophisticated sports bettors know that there is variance in sports betting and that my 3 seasons at 64% prior to this year (and my 59% college record over the previous 9 years and 57% over 20 years) didn't guarantee a winning season. I can assure you that I didn't suddenly forget how to handicap or that I am not working as hard because I'm working more hours than I ever have. The difference between this year and other seasons is negative variance and that variance has come in the form of numerous games in which I clearly had the right side and lost anyway due to a large number of turnovers, missed extra points and other random occurrences. Those sort of losses happen every year (although not as often as this year), but what has made this year different is that I haven't had my share of lucky wins on games in which I was on the wrong side. In fact, I have not had one lucky win all season and I challenge any of you to find a game I was lucky to win in which I obviously had the wrong side. I have won a few games that could have gone either way, but I have a decidedly losing record on toss-up games this season.
I though perhaps it just selective memory that I was getting screwed a lot this year on games I should have won and maybe I was just forgetting some fortunate wins. I decided to go over every box score and play by play on all my Best Bets this season to find out if I had conveniently forgotten about a few lucky wins.
Below is a recap of every College Best Bet this season and I put each game into one of three categories. A game in which my team should have covered based on yards per play and other predictable events was considered being on the right side. A game in which I deserved to lose based on yardage is considered being on the wrong side and games that really could have gone either way based on the yardage and a reasonable turnover differential was considered a toss up game. You'll see me refer to turnover margin a lot in this recap because turnovers are 75% random in college football and often determine which team covers the spread. Anything beyond a -1 or +1 in turnover margin in a game is random as even favorites of 28 points or more would not be forecasted to be +2 in turnover margin very often.
You can go through each game below and you'll see that my assessment of each game is unbiased and based on what the projected margin would be based on yards per play and a reasonable turnover margin between -1 and +1. If you don't know already, yards per play is a much stronger indicator of the better team than total yards.
The results of my study are pretty much what I thought they were.
I have had 29 games in which I was on the right side and I'm 23-5-1 on those games, which is a win percentage that is about normal for being on the right side of a game.
I have had 22 games in which I was obviously on the wrong side and I have lost them all (where are my lucky wins???).
I have had 15 games that I consider toss up games based on the stats and my record on those toss up games, which should be 50%, is just 5-10.
So, I have been on the right side 7 more times than I've been on the wrong side and my Best Bet record would be 36-29-1 if I won the 29 games in which I was on the right side, lost the 22 games in which I was on the wrong side, and went 7-7-1 on the 15 toss-up games. Because I've had 5 unlucky losses, one unlucky push, zero lucky wins and have a record of just 5-10 on the toss-up games my record is 28-37-1 instead of 36-29-1.
So, my analysis has not been nearly as bad as my record indicates. I usually wait until the off-season to do this analysis and I've certainly had years when my record was better than it should be (I was 74% on a Star Basis in 2005 and should have been 66%) and the last time there was significant negative variance was in 2003 when I was 46-55-2 on my College Best Bets when I graded out at 54% that year. People doubted me after that bad 2003 season and then I went 64% on my College Best Bets over the next 3 seasons combined, so one bad year that is the result of negative variance and not bad analysis does not mean that I am suddenly a bad handicapper.
Here is the list of this year's College Best Bets. I'm sure you'll find that I was extremely fair in my assessment of each game.
Week 1
No Best Bets
Week 2
***Cincinnati (+3 ½) 31 Oregon State 3
Cincinnati was +5 in turnovers and had a blocked punt for a TD, but that's not a lucky win because they didn't need the turnovers to cover. The Bearcats averaged 4.8 yards per play and allowed 4.1 yppl and were the underdog. Right Side - Winner.
**Navy (+16 ½) 24 Rutgers 41
This game could have gone either way and I end up losing by ½ a point. Navy was -2 in turnovers as quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada threw 3 in this one game and threw just 1 interception TOTAL in his other 9 games. I won't call that an unlucky win, but that is a toss-up game that I barely lost. Toss up - Loser.
**Oregon (+8) 39 Michigan 7
Right Side - Winner.
2-Stars South Carolina (+4) 16 Georgia 12
South Carolina was +1 in turnover margin, but the Gamecocks out played Georgia from the line of scrimmage 4.8 yppl to 4.5 yppl. I would have called this a toss-up game if it was within 7 points of the line, but the underdog covered by 8 points and out-played the favorite. Ride Side - Winner.
**North Carolina (+6) 31 East Carolina 34
This game was originally a Strong Opinion, but the line moved to +6 on Saturday morning making it a 2-Star and I sent out an email a couple hours before the game alerting everyone that it was officially a play. North Carolina out played ECU 6.8 yppl to 6.4 yppl and covered despite being -2 in turnovers - although a punt return TD helped balance out those turnovers. This game was tight the entire way and I was getting 6 points. ECU won on a field goal on the last play of the game. Borderline toss-up game but having a 6 point dog out-gain the favorite indicates I had the right side in this one. Right side - winner.
**Tulane (+6 ½) 17 Miss State 38
Tulane was dominated. Wrong side - loser.
**Virginia Tech (+12 ½) 7 LSU 41
Virginia Tech's defense was great before this game and great after this game but were horrible during this game. Wrong Side - Loser.
Week 3
***Miami-Ohio (+8 ½) 10 Cincinnati 47
Wrong side - Loser.
***Kansas (-23) 45 Toledo 13
Kansas dominated 557 yards at 6.6 yppl to 251 yards at 4.1 yppl. Right side - Winner.
**Kentucky (+6 ½) 40 Louisville 34
Funny to think that Kentucky was a 6 ½ point home dog to a Louisville team with a horrible defense. Kentucky was actually out-played from the line of scrimmage 460 yards at 5.8 yppl while Louisville had 467 yards at 6.7 and Kentucky's +2 in turnovers was off-set by a Louisville kickoff return TD. Kentucky never trailed by more than 2 points but I'll call this one a toss-up. Toss up - Winner.
Week 4
**Navy (-11 ½) 46 Duke 43
Wrong side - loser.
***Arizona (+15) 27 California 45
Arizona fell behind 3-28 on a few turnovers, including a fumble that was scooped up and run in for a Cal TD. Arizona came back to have the number covered before Cal scored midway through the 4th quarter. Arizona was in scoring territory a couple of times after that and passed up on a short field goal attempt with 2 ½ minutes left that would have resulted in a spread push. Arizona was -2 in turnover margin and failed to cover by only 3 points. This game could have gone either way. Toss up - loser.
***LSU (-16 ½) 28 S Carolina 16
LSU was up 28-7 midway through the 4th quarter and out played the Gamecocks 5.5 yppl to 3.8 yppl but LSU was +2 in turnovers. South Carolina scored the covering TD with 1:41 left with the Tigers in a prevent defense. This game could have gone either way based on the yppl differential. Toss up - Loser.
Week 5
***Toledo (+1 ½) 28 W. Michigan 42
Wrong side - Loser.
**Kent State (-2 ½) 33 Ohio 25
Kent led this game the entire way and Ohio got within 8 with a TD with 3 minutes left to make it somewhat close. Kent out-played Ohio from the line of scrimmage 5.4 yppl to 5.1 yppl but were +2 in turnovers. This one could have gone either way if the turnovers were even (based on the yppl differential) so I'll all it a toss-up even though Kent never trailed. Toss up - Winner.
***Houston (-11) 35 East Carolina 37
Wrong side - Loser.
****Rutgers (-16 ½) 24 Maryland 34
Rutgers out gained Maryland 5.9 yppl to 5.5 yppl and were -3 in turnovers, but this was a bad call. Wrong side - Loser.
**New Mexico (+5 ½) 24 Byu 31
New Mexico is not a turnover prone team, but the Lobos committed 5 turnovers (one returned for a BYU touchdown) and were -3 in turnover margin in this game. The Lobos out played BYU 5.0 yppl to 4.8 yppl and had the game covered despite the negative turnover margin before BYU kicked a field goal with 4 minutes left. When a dog out plays the favorite from the line of scrimmage and still nearly covers despite being -3 in turnover margin it is a good bet. Right side - Loser.
**Florida International (+11) 6 Mid Tennessee St 47
Wrong side - Loser.
***Kentucky (-22) 45 Florida Atlantic 17
The game covering TD came on an interception return, but Kentucky dominated the game from the line of scrimmage 504 yards at 6.9 yppl to 307 yards at 4.9 yppl. This one could have gone either way. Toss up - Winner.
Week 6
**Southern Miss (-20 ½) 29 Rice 31
Southern Miss was forced to play their injured backup quarterback when the healthy 3rd string QB was hurt in the first series of the game. Bad luck that the only healthy quarterback on the roster gets hurt and even worse luck when and injured QB has to play and turns the ball over 7 times and can't throw more than 15 yards down the field. Southern Miss still out-gained Rice 422 yards (at 5.1 yppl) to 240 yards at 4.0 yppl. To turn the ball over 7 times (to 2 turnover for Rice) and only lose by 2 points is an indication of how much better Southern Miss is. I have no doubt that Southern Miss would have had a very good chance to win by 21 points or more with a healthy quarterback or even with an injured one as long as he didn't turn it over 7 times. Southern Miss covers this game more than not if they play it 100 times, so I'll put this into the toss-up category. Toss up - Loser.
**Michigan St (-14 ½) 41 Northwestern 48
Wrong side - Loser.
**Auburn (-7) 35 Vanderbilt 7
This game became a Best Bet on Saturday morning when the line went down to -7 at 8:50 am. Auburn dominated the game 7.1 yppl to 3.2 yppl. Right side - Winner.
***Nebraska (+7) 6 Missouri 41
Wrong side - Loser.
***Georgia (+1) 14 Tennessee 35
Wrong side - Loser.
**Arizona (+4) 16 Oregon State 31
Wrong side - Loser.
***Georgia Tech (-2 ½) 26 Maryland 28
Georgia Tech out-gained Maryland 484 yards to 345 yard, but the yards per play was more telling (as it usually is) at 6.3 yppl for Georgia Tech to 6.7 yppl for Maryland. This game could have gone either way based on the huge total yards advantage and close yards per play and even turnovers. Toss up - Loser.
***Florida (+7 ½) 24 Lsu 28
Florida was up by 10 point entering the 4th quarter and out-gained LSU 5.5 yppl to 4.9 yppl and covered despite a -1 turnover margin. LSU took the lead with one minute left in the game and had no chance to cover this game. Right side - Winner.
****UCLA (-20 ½) 6 Notre Dame 20
UCLA's defense held Notre Dame's pathetic offense to just 147 total yards at 2.3 yppl and would have held them to 3 points and would have had a decent chance to cover if not for the injury to starting quarterback Ben Olson. That forced 3rd string quarterback Bethel-Thompson into the game and he committed 7 turnovers. I still think UCLA would have had a good chance to cover if not for the injury to Olson because Notre Dame's offense was not going to score more than 3 points without the turnovers. But, I'll put this into the category of the wrong side. Wrong side - Loser.
Week 7
**Buffalo (-3 ½) 43 Toledo 33
Buffalo jumped out to a 36-13 lead and out-gained the Rockets 7.4 yppl to 5.3 yppl for the game. The turnovers were even and Buffalo was clearly the better team. Right side - Winner.
****Houston (-21) 56 Rice 48
Houston out gained Rice by an incredible 750 yards at 9.5 yards per play to 441 yards at 5.7 yppl. Such a yardage and yppl differential would be expected to win by 30 points or so but Houston committed two turnovers on kickoff returns that led to short Rice TD drives, had another turnover at their own 5 yard line setting up and easy score and then fumbled on 1st and goal at the one yard line and fumbled to keep them from leading at the half. Those 4 turnovers led directly to 28 points and Houston only won by 8 points despite scoring every time they didn't turn the ball over. Right side - Loser.
**Illinois (-3 ½) 6 Iowa 10
Illinois is a much better team than Iowa and out-gained the Hawkeyes 5.2 yppl to 4.7 yppl, which is what you'd expect from a small favorite. Illinois was -1 in turnover margin. Toss up - Loser.
**Air Force (+3 ½) 45 Colorado State 21
Air Force was +3 in turnover margin, but the Falcons didn't need the turnovers to win this game (out-gained CSU 5.9 yppl to 5.3 yppl as a dog). Right side - Winner.
***Texas Tech (-8 ½) 35 Texas A&M 7
Texas Tech dominated the stats and the scoreboard and turnovers were not a factor (1 each). Right side - Winner.
****Oklahoma (-10 ½) 41 Missouri 31
Oklahoma missed 4 extra points and Missouri scored a touchdown with 12 seconds left in the game to cover by ½ a point with a TD that replays showed was clearly not a TD (why no review?). Oklahoma did catch some breaks during the course of the game and were +2 in turnovers (one for a TD), but the Sooners also out-played Missouri 5.9 yppl to 5.3 yppl. This one goes into the toss-up category. Toss up - Loser.
Week 8
***Memphis (+2) 38 Rice 35
Rice scored a TD with 2 minutes remaining to make this game close, but Memphis out-gained the Owls 571 yards at 6.4 yppl to 418 yards at 6.4 yppl. The yppl were even in a near pick em game, so I'll have to call this a toss up. Toss up - Winner.
****Ohio State (-17 ½) 24 Michigan State 17
Ohio State was cruising along with a 24-0 lead and dominating on both sides of the ball when Michigan State picked off a pass and ran it in for 54 yard touchdown return. A few plays later the Buckeyes fumbles and that ball was run back for a TD too. After those two events coach Tressel got real conservative in his play calling because he knew his defense was not going to give up a touchdown drive. The only way Michigan State was going to score a touchdown was on turnover returns as the Buckeyes held the Spartans to just 185 total yards at 3.6 yppl. If Ohio State simply turned the ball over twice their defense would have stopped Michigan State from scoring, but each turnover was returned for a touchdown. Ohio State racked up 424 total yards at 6.1 yppl and should have won this game by at least 21 points. Second week in a row I had the right side in a 4-Star and lost. Right side - Loser.
**Fresno State (-12 ½) 30 San Jose State 0
Right side - Winner.
***Illinois (+2 ½) 17 Michigan 27
This game was tied at 17 midway through the 4th quarter and Michigan only out gained Illinois 4.5 yppl to 4.4 yppl. While the stats suggest this game could have gone either way, I watched this game and thought Michigan was the better team. Wrong side - Loser.
**Troy (-19 ½) 45 North Texas 7
Complete domination. Troy won by 38 points despite turning the ball over 7 times and being -5 in turnovers. Right side - Winner.
Week 9
**Virginia Tech (-3) 10 Boston College 14
Virginia Tech's defense dominated this game for 3 ½ quarters before BC got a touchdown to push the spread with 2 minutes left. I was upset to have to settle for a push at the time but BC recovered the onside kick and scored with 11 seconds left. The onside kick recovery went right at a Virginia Tech player who muffed it. That's pretty random bad luck as a push turned into an unlucky loss. Toss up - Loser.
**New Mexico (-6) 34 Air Force 31
New Mexico's kick, who had made 18 consecutive field goals, missed an easy 32 yarder in the final minutes to keep me from pushing this game. But, New Mexico was out-played from the line of scrimmage and were +3 in turnovers (5 Air Force fumbles), so this goes down a bad bet. Wrong side - Loser.
***Wisconsin (-7 ½) 33 Indiana 3
Right side - Winner.
**Auburn (-17) 17 Mississippi 3
Auburn out-gained Ole Miss 420 yards to 193 yards and should have scored more than 17 points. Toss up - Loser.
***Kansas (-2 ½) 19 Texas A&M 11
Kansas led 19-0 with 8 minutes left before A&M made a late run. The Jayhawks easily won the stats. Right side - Winner.
**Marshall (-8) 34 Rice 21
Marshall was up 17-0 at the half before Rice made a run. Marshall out-gained Rice 481 yards at 6.1 yppl to 428 yards at 5.6 yppl and Rice got most of their yards after the game was decided. Right side - Winner.
***Hawaii (-27 ½) 50 New Mexico State 13
Hawaii out-played New Mexico State 8.4 yards per play to 5.1 yppl and had the game covered late before an interception return TD sealed the deal. This game really could have gone either way. Toss-up - Winner.
Week 10
***Ohio (-7 ½) 23 Temple 7
Ohio dominated this game 405 yards at 5.9 yppl to 209 yards at 3.7 yppl and didn't need the +2 in turnover margin to cover. Right side - Winner.
**Arkansas (-4 ½) 48 South Carolina 36
Arkansas racked up 650 total yards at 9.4 yppl while South Carolina averaged only 5.9 yppl. Right side - Winner.
**Penn State (-7) 26 Purdue 19
Purdue scored a TD on the opening kick off but Penn State dominated as expected and built a 26-16 lead, which would have been 27-16 if not for a botched extra point attempt. Purdue added a late field goal to make it a 7 point game and a frustrating push. Penn State had 461 yards at 6.1 yppl to Purdue's 323 yards at 4.5 yppl and would have covered despite the kickoff return TD if they didn't miss that extra point. Right side - Push.
Week 11
***Air Force (-3) 41 Notre Dame 24
Air Force dominated this game 407 yards at 5.2 yppl to 304 yards at just 3.9 yppl for Notre Dame. Right side - Winner.
Virginia Tech (-6) 40 Florida State 21
Both teams had interception return TD's and the Florida State was up by 1 point heading into the 4th quarter but Virginia Tech dominated the final quarter and finished the game with a 398 yards (at 5.6 yppl) to 267 yards (at 4.4 yppl) advantage. Right side - Winner.
**Southern Miss (-15 ½) 26 Memphis 29
Wrong side - Loser.
**Florida (-6 ½) 51 South Carolina 31
Florida has a 537 yards (at 6.7 yppl) to 384 yards (at 5.7 yppl) advantage and turnovers were even. An easy winner. Right side - Winner.
Week 12
**Nevada (+7) 26 Hawaii 28
Nevada was up on the spread by two touchdowns before Hawaii scored with 11 seconds left in the game to win straight up. Nevada covered despite being -2 in turnover margin due to 2 lost fumbles. Right side - Winner.
**Clemson (-7 ½) 17 Boston College 20
Wrong side - Loser.
***Washington State (-2 ½) 17 Oregon State 52
This game was actually pretty close in yardage and yards per play but Washington State was -8 in turnover margin. Wrong side - Loser.
****South Florida (-7) 55 Louisville 17
South Florida was +7 in turnovers, but they also out-played Louisville from the line of scrimmage 6.4 yppl to 5.5 yppl. This game should have been closer than it was, but South Florida was certainly the right side and would have won by more than 7 points without the turnover advantage. Right side - Winner.
Week 13
**Arizona State (+3) 24 USC 44
Wrong side - Loser.
***LSU (-12) 48 Arkansas 50
Wrong side - Loser.
***Pittsburgh (+10) 37 South Florida 48
Pitt out-gained USF 393 yards at 5.5 yppl to 352 yards at 5.3 yppl but the Bulls returned two interceptions for touchdowns. When a double-digit dog outplays the favorite from the line of scrimmage you're supposed to win. Right side - Loser.
**West Virginia (-17 ½) 66 Connecticut 21
West Virginia with 624 total yards at 9.6 yppl to 392 yards at 4.7 yppl for U Conn. Right side - Winner.
***North Carolina (-14) 20 Duke 14
Wrong side - Loser.
***Miami-Ohio (+2) 29 Ohio 38
Miami-Ohio dominated Ohio 379 yards at 4.4 yppl to 199 yards at 3.6 yppl and they were the underdog. Ohio had a kickoff return TD and a turnover advantage. Miami was certainly the right side in this game. Right side - Loser.
***Alabama (+6) 10 Auburn 17
This game was tight the entire way and Auburn scored the spread covering TD with 3:58 left in the game. Toss up - Loser.
**Stanford (-3 ½) 14 Notre Dame 21
Notre Dame broke a 14-14 tie with about 9 minutes left and Stanford receivers dropped 2 touchdown passes on the last two plays that would have sent the game to OT and given me a chance to win. Still, Notre Dame out played the Cardinal from the line of scrimmage 4.7 yppl to 4.2 yppl so I deserved to lose. Wrong Side - Loser.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Jesus. And I thought our coach could spin shit...
GoBucksIndy
Pretty much a regular
I can't believe people actually buy this bullshit. I didn't read through all his explanations, but did read the Ohio State one since I'm a fan.
"****Ohio State (-17 ½) 24 Michigan State 17
Ohio State was cruising along with a 24-0 lead and dominating on both sides of the ball when Michigan State picked off a pass and ran it in for 54 yard touchdown return. A few plays later the Buckeyes fumbles and that ball was run back for a TD too. After those two events coach Tressel got real conservative in his play calling because he knew his defense was not going to give up a touchdown drive. The only way Michigan State was going to score a touchdown was on turnover returns as the Buckeyes held the Spartans to just 185 total yards at 3.6 yppl. If Ohio State simply turned the ball over twice their defense would have stopped Michigan State from scoring, but each turnover was returned for a touchdown. Ohio State racked up 424 total yards at 6.1 yppl and should have won this game by at least 21 points. Second week in a row I had the right side in a 4-Star and lost. Right side - Loser."
BAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHA. Ohio State doesn't cover by 10+ points and Bob really thinks he was on the right side? I was watching this game and what Bob fails to mention is the Buckeyes were lucky to win this game by 7. After allowing 14 points off turnovers, on the very next possession, Beanie Wells fumbled in his own territory, from what I remember, should have been recovered by Michigan St. That turnover would have been atleast 3 more points for Michigan State.
"****Ohio State (-17 ½) 24 Michigan State 17
Ohio State was cruising along with a 24-0 lead and dominating on both sides of the ball when Michigan State picked off a pass and ran it in for 54 yard touchdown return. A few plays later the Buckeyes fumbles and that ball was run back for a TD too. After those two events coach Tressel got real conservative in his play calling because he knew his defense was not going to give up a touchdown drive. The only way Michigan State was going to score a touchdown was on turnover returns as the Buckeyes held the Spartans to just 185 total yards at 3.6 yppl. If Ohio State simply turned the ball over twice their defense would have stopped Michigan State from scoring, but each turnover was returned for a touchdown. Ohio State racked up 424 total yards at 6.1 yppl and should have won this game by at least 21 points. Second week in a row I had the right side in a 4-Star and lost. Right side - Loser."
BAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHA. Ohio State doesn't cover by 10+ points and Bob really thinks he was on the right side? I was watching this game and what Bob fails to mention is the Buckeyes were lucky to win this game by 7. After allowing 14 points off turnovers, on the very next possession, Beanie Wells fumbled in his own territory, from what I remember, should have been recovered by Michigan St. That turnover would have been atleast 3 more points for Michigan State.
This coming from a guy with a Siena avatar?:tiphat:
I just put it up for GL Friday night because I had a UGA bet Saturday.
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
haha, nice bet btw
