Tulsa vs. Mississippi State Armed Forces Bowl Picks and Game Predictions
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Thursday, December 31, 2020 at noon ET (ESPN) at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas
Tulsa’s Defense
Tulsa’s defense has proven itself throughout the year, starting with its opening effort against Big 12 school Oklahoma State, which it limited to 16 points.
Its next accomplishment was to limit UCF’s up-tempo, speed-driven, prolific offense to a regular season-low 26 points.
One key to Tulsa’s defense is linebacker and defensive leader Zaven Collins, who is deservedly a semifinalist for the Butkus Award, which goes to the nation’s top linebacker.
Collins is a disruptive force who easily sheds blocks. He has four sacks and ranks fourth nationally in tackles for loss because he quickly gets into the backfield.
His disruptiveness is also a product of his excellent speed and physicality.
Collins is more able to succeed because opposing offenses cannot simply scheme around him.
Tulsa’s defense is fairly loaded with difference-making guys like its tall and physical cornerbacks and other defensive backs who utilize their physicality in run support.
Given its personnel, the Golden Hurricane ranks 25th nationally in total defense, as measured by opposing yards per game, despite facing some higher-level offenses.
Mississippi State Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
A completely new scheme helps explain why Mississippi State ranks 109th nationally in points per game.
Departing talent has also affected the Bulldog offense. One big loss, for example, was top running back Kylin Hill, who opted out of the rest of the season as he was surely frustrated by his new role in the team’s new offensive brand.
This lack of talent helps explain why the Bulldog offense tends to disappear against stronger defenses.
Thus far, Mississippi State has faced three teams which rank top-30 in scoring defense, as measured by points per game allowed.
Mississippi State has produced a combined total of 31 points against those three teams, Georgia, Alabama, and Texas A&M. Tulsa ranks 25th in the category.
Out of those three games, quarterback Will Rogers was awful in two of them as he failed to reach 200 passing yards against either Alabama or Texas A&M.
Rogers’ inability to be productive against stronger opponents is critical because the Bulldogs are such a pass-heavy team. They rank number one by far in pass play percentage.
While Rogers did thrive against Georgia, this anomaly is to be explained by the situation which Georgia was in, coming off a loss to Florida that ended its hopes of even reaching the SEC title game. Georgia was clearly deflated.
Tulsa Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
Quarterback struggles have been nothing new for Tulsa in recent years.
These struggles have been manifest for the Golden Hurricane especially down the stretch.
Zach Smith is one of multiple recent quarterbacks who Tulsa has hoped lately to employ as an answer to these struggles at this position.
But Smith is repeatedly failing to complete more than 43.3 percent of his passes. His completion percentage on the season is 55.8.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State’s defense feasts on inefficient quarterbacks. Recently, for example, it limited Auburn quarterback Bo Nix to a 15-for-32 effort in which Nix managed 125 passing yards.
Certainly, the Bulldogs are going to get crushed by the SEC’s better quarterbacks. But Smith does not approach anything that has challenged Mississippi State’s pass defense.
Another inefficient quarterback will allow the Bulldog pass defense to improve upon its season-long statistics, which have been exacerbated by drastically more capable quarterbacks.
The Verdict
Mississippi State’s regressed offense will become another victim of Tulsa’s stacked and high-caliber defense.
Offensively, Tulsa is limited in its own passing game by the struggles of Zach Smith, whose inefficiency prevents the Golden Hurricane offense from sustaining drives.
Best Bet: Under 49.5 at -108 with Heritage
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Thursday, December 31, 2020 at noon ET (ESPN) at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas
Tulsa’s Defense
Tulsa’s defense has proven itself throughout the year, starting with its opening effort against Big 12 school Oklahoma State, which it limited to 16 points.
Its next accomplishment was to limit UCF’s up-tempo, speed-driven, prolific offense to a regular season-low 26 points.
One key to Tulsa’s defense is linebacker and defensive leader Zaven Collins, who is deservedly a semifinalist for the Butkus Award, which goes to the nation’s top linebacker.
Collins is a disruptive force who easily sheds blocks. He has four sacks and ranks fourth nationally in tackles for loss because he quickly gets into the backfield.
His disruptiveness is also a product of his excellent speed and physicality.
Collins is more able to succeed because opposing offenses cannot simply scheme around him.
Tulsa’s defense is fairly loaded with difference-making guys like its tall and physical cornerbacks and other defensive backs who utilize their physicality in run support.
Given its personnel, the Golden Hurricane ranks 25th nationally in total defense, as measured by opposing yards per game, despite facing some higher-level offenses.
Mississippi State Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
A completely new scheme helps explain why Mississippi State ranks 109th nationally in points per game.
Departing talent has also affected the Bulldog offense. One big loss, for example, was top running back Kylin Hill, who opted out of the rest of the season as he was surely frustrated by his new role in the team’s new offensive brand.
This lack of talent helps explain why the Bulldog offense tends to disappear against stronger defenses.
Thus far, Mississippi State has faced three teams which rank top-30 in scoring defense, as measured by points per game allowed.
Mississippi State has produced a combined total of 31 points against those three teams, Georgia, Alabama, and Texas A&M. Tulsa ranks 25th in the category.
Out of those three games, quarterback Will Rogers was awful in two of them as he failed to reach 200 passing yards against either Alabama or Texas A&M.
Rogers’ inability to be productive against stronger opponents is critical because the Bulldogs are such a pass-heavy team. They rank number one by far in pass play percentage.
While Rogers did thrive against Georgia, this anomaly is to be explained by the situation which Georgia was in, coming off a loss to Florida that ended its hopes of even reaching the SEC title game. Georgia was clearly deflated.
Tulsa Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
Quarterback struggles have been nothing new for Tulsa in recent years.
These struggles have been manifest for the Golden Hurricane especially down the stretch.
Zach Smith is one of multiple recent quarterbacks who Tulsa has hoped lately to employ as an answer to these struggles at this position.
But Smith is repeatedly failing to complete more than 43.3 percent of his passes. His completion percentage on the season is 55.8.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State’s defense feasts on inefficient quarterbacks. Recently, for example, it limited Auburn quarterback Bo Nix to a 15-for-32 effort in which Nix managed 125 passing yards.
Certainly, the Bulldogs are going to get crushed by the SEC’s better quarterbacks. But Smith does not approach anything that has challenged Mississippi State’s pass defense.
Another inefficient quarterback will allow the Bulldog pass defense to improve upon its season-long statistics, which have been exacerbated by drastically more capable quarterbacks.
The Verdict
Mississippi State’s regressed offense will become another victim of Tulsa’s stacked and high-caliber defense.
Offensively, Tulsa is limited in its own passing game by the struggles of Zach Smith, whose inefficiency prevents the Golden Hurricane offense from sustaining drives.
Best Bet: Under 49.5 at -108 with Heritage
