Tulane vs. Nevada Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Picks and Betting Analysis
Tulane Green Wave vs. Nevada Wolfpack
Tuesday, December 22, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho
Carson Strong
The key to any “over” bet begins with Nevada quarterback Carson Strong.
Nevada owns the nation’s fourth-highest pass-play percentage, which reflects a fair strategy given the fact that Carson Strong is now the reigning Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year.
He’s accurate, completing nearly 70 percent of his throws and accruing 22 touchdowns to four interceptions.
His accuracy extends to deep passing plays. This season, he’s completed 18 30-yard pass attempts.
So he also has a big and strong arm, which allows him to move the ball downfield in a hurry.
Tulane Secondary
Strong has a particularly good chance to thrive on Tuesday because he encounters a Tulane secondary that has struggled throughout the season.
Don’t be fooled by the Green Wave’s recent positive performance against Memphis.
Tiger quarterback Brady White has been awful as this season approaches its conclusion. He even had a bad showing against Stephen F. Austin, which is an FCS school.
The fact remains that opposing top quarterbacks in the AAC reliably throw for around 400 yards when they get to face the Green Wave.
Among AAC teams, Tulane ranks third-to-last in pass defense. Nationally, Tulane ranks 118th in the category.
Given his accuracy along multiple levels, Carson Strong resides in a different qualitative stratosphere than White and is arguably going to be Tulane’s toughest test.
Strong’s Weapons
Strong also benefits from having top-level weapons to throw to. While tight end Cole Turner is worth mentioning, I want to focus on fellow All-Mountain West first-teamer in 2020 Romeo Doubs.
Doubs has amassed 960 receiving yards while catching nine touchdowns. Doubs has an advantage against this year’s Tulane squad, which misses a cornerback who was selected in the NFL Draft.
Like that now departed Tulane cornerback, Doubs is known for possessing great ball skills. He can really accelerate and make a play on a ball when it’s in the air.
His size at 6-2 helps him make those contested catches. But he also shows good speed on the field, which is partly why many of his longer touchdowns come on pass plays of 40 or more yards.
Doubs’ big-play ability makes him a good fit with the big-play-minded Strong.
Tulane Offense vs. Nevada Defense
Unless it’s facing the superb Tulsa defense, Tulane regularly eclipses 30 points.
Quarterback Michael Pratt deserves a lot of credit for improving the Green Wave offseason after stepping up as its starter in order to replace Keon Howard, who lost his starting job.
While he demonstrates the quickness and athleticism to run for 10+ yards, Pratt is known as a pro-style quarterback.
With his good pocket presence — where he keeps his eyes downfield and creates a propitious passing lane or angle for himself in the face of pressure — he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in six straight contests.
Pratt is an able quarterback. And able quarterbacks have been plaguing Nevada during its last three contests.
On December 5, Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener threw for a season-high 485 yards against the Wolfpack defense.
On December 11, San Jose State’s Nick Starkel amassed his second-highest total of the season, 306 passing yards, in his contest with Nevada.
It’s not just quarterbacks who transferred from Power 5 schools who are thriving against the Wolfpack.
On November 28, Hawaii’s Chevan Cordeiro, a former two-star recruit, achieved his highest passer rating of the season against Nevada.
Running is actually what Tulane does best as it features a bevy of well-tested running backs who average 5.5 YPC or more.
While Nevada has struggled against the pass, it has allowed opposing starting running backs to have big games while they take advantage of the attention that Nevada has to devote to trying to defend the pass.
The Verdict
In this contest, both offenses will do what they want.
Pratt and Tulane’s ground game will complement each other en route to another 30+-point output.
Meanwhile, Carson Strong will produce another top-level performance against Tulane’s consistently vulnerable secondary. He will give his Wolfpack a great chance to win.
Best Bet: Over 56.5 at -110 with Bovada
Tulane Green Wave vs. Nevada Wolfpack
Tuesday, December 22, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho
Carson Strong
The key to any “over” bet begins with Nevada quarterback Carson Strong.
Nevada owns the nation’s fourth-highest pass-play percentage, which reflects a fair strategy given the fact that Carson Strong is now the reigning Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year.
He’s accurate, completing nearly 70 percent of his throws and accruing 22 touchdowns to four interceptions.
His accuracy extends to deep passing plays. This season, he’s completed 18 30-yard pass attempts.
So he also has a big and strong arm, which allows him to move the ball downfield in a hurry.
Tulane Secondary
Strong has a particularly good chance to thrive on Tuesday because he encounters a Tulane secondary that has struggled throughout the season.
Don’t be fooled by the Green Wave’s recent positive performance against Memphis.
Tiger quarterback Brady White has been awful as this season approaches its conclusion. He even had a bad showing against Stephen F. Austin, which is an FCS school.
The fact remains that opposing top quarterbacks in the AAC reliably throw for around 400 yards when they get to face the Green Wave.
Among AAC teams, Tulane ranks third-to-last in pass defense. Nationally, Tulane ranks 118th in the category.
Given his accuracy along multiple levels, Carson Strong resides in a different qualitative stratosphere than White and is arguably going to be Tulane’s toughest test.
Strong’s Weapons
Strong also benefits from having top-level weapons to throw to. While tight end Cole Turner is worth mentioning, I want to focus on fellow All-Mountain West first-teamer in 2020 Romeo Doubs.
Doubs has amassed 960 receiving yards while catching nine touchdowns. Doubs has an advantage against this year’s Tulane squad, which misses a cornerback who was selected in the NFL Draft.
Like that now departed Tulane cornerback, Doubs is known for possessing great ball skills. He can really accelerate and make a play on a ball when it’s in the air.
His size at 6-2 helps him make those contested catches. But he also shows good speed on the field, which is partly why many of his longer touchdowns come on pass plays of 40 or more yards.
Doubs’ big-play ability makes him a good fit with the big-play-minded Strong.
Tulane Offense vs. Nevada Defense
Unless it’s facing the superb Tulsa defense, Tulane regularly eclipses 30 points.
Quarterback Michael Pratt deserves a lot of credit for improving the Green Wave offseason after stepping up as its starter in order to replace Keon Howard, who lost his starting job.
While he demonstrates the quickness and athleticism to run for 10+ yards, Pratt is known as a pro-style quarterback.
With his good pocket presence — where he keeps his eyes downfield and creates a propitious passing lane or angle for himself in the face of pressure — he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in six straight contests.
Pratt is an able quarterback. And able quarterbacks have been plaguing Nevada during its last three contests.
On December 5, Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener threw for a season-high 485 yards against the Wolfpack defense.
On December 11, San Jose State’s Nick Starkel amassed his second-highest total of the season, 306 passing yards, in his contest with Nevada.
It’s not just quarterbacks who transferred from Power 5 schools who are thriving against the Wolfpack.
On November 28, Hawaii’s Chevan Cordeiro, a former two-star recruit, achieved his highest passer rating of the season against Nevada.
Running is actually what Tulane does best as it features a bevy of well-tested running backs who average 5.5 YPC or more.
While Nevada has struggled against the pass, it has allowed opposing starting running backs to have big games while they take advantage of the attention that Nevada has to devote to trying to defend the pass.
The Verdict
In this contest, both offenses will do what they want.
Pratt and Tulane’s ground game will complement each other en route to another 30+-point output.
Meanwhile, Carson Strong will produce another top-level performance against Tulane’s consistently vulnerable secondary. He will give his Wolfpack a great chance to win.
Best Bet: Over 56.5 at -110 with Bovada
