TUF 5 Finale Free on Soike 6-23-07

[Liquidnoose]

PULVER (+315) over PENN 2/2.3
GAMBURYAN (+105) over DIAZ 3/3.15

Only value plays on the card...each

 

[mutosufan]

LOL Liquid, I got online this morning to do the same thing!

I am not a ig "value" better. I do here and there but not much. But in this case I agree with the Pulver bet, though I wont be doing it. I think Penn will walk through IMHO, but -310 is pretty steep to pay when he got beat by the same guy a few years back.

And the Gamburyan/Diaz fight, I have been calling for Gamburyan to get beat along w/ Dana since his 1st fight and the fucker wont loose. I think Diaz is more skilled but am afraid that Gamburyan's short stocky body just might overpower him. Diaz does have some studs in his corner for this fight. His brother got didnt get licesned to corner because he is still suspended for the weed smoking. Jake Shields, Gilbert Melendez and Holy Shit Cesar Gracie! I havent seen Gamburyan's corner yet, but I am sure his cousin will be there, not to shabby.

But I am going to have to go on the other side of you on this one and take Diaz. It will be hard for him to get one of those short arms for an arm bar, but I think he some how gets a submission.

I hope this is not my heart instead of my analysis talking.

 

[mutosufan]

Write-ups and predictions for the fights tomorrow. I will probably parlay some of the fights to get the juice to a workable amount. There are some pretty lopsided fights out there. This is if my book even puts them out. Nathans Hotdog Eating contest has been out for a month now, but the last UFC was out 2 hours before the fight.

http://ufcmania.com/2007/06/22/tuf-5-finale-odds-free-betting-tips-and-advice-from-desert-dog/

 

[mutosufan]

More predictions and betting analysis

http://ufcjunkie.com/2007/06/22/performifys-picks-for-the-ultimate-fighter-5-finale/#more-1909

 

[Liquidnoose]

That sucks that Gamburyan broke/dislocated his shoulder going for a shoot..he won th first round. BJ just owned Jens.
0-2 - 5 Units.

 

[mutosufan]

I had money on Diaz in a parlay, so from a $ standpoint I was glad, but I really wanted to see them fight. Gambutyan might be done. If it keeps popping out like he says it does than I have a hard time seeing him get back in there. He is a little beast. Dont like him, but nonetheless, a beast.

Jenns was outclassed from the ding. If BJ sticks with this trainer/nutritionist he might get beat again. He is that good. I pray he is in that type of shape when it comes time for a rematch with Hughes.

The Maynard/Emerson fight was like nothing I had ever seen. Maynard was beating the hell out of him and gets a ND out of it. He was smokin' when he said that he didnt knock himself out. He was gone.

I did 3 parlays and hit them all. I wont list them because I didnt list them before and dont want to turn this into covers with the bashing of winning picks after the fact.

I have had a nice run on last night and the last UFC. Now the next one will be toss ups. Looking forward to it!

 

[mogo]

where can you parlay MMA fights???

bodog and sportsbook both don't allow it.

 

[mutosufan]

where can you parlay MMA fights???

bodog and sportsbook both don't allow it.

sportsinteraction has allowed me to do it every time.

vip has allowed up until last night. Was it because the listed fights that they had were so high in juice and they didnt want people parlaying "sure" things to reduce the juice? I dont know. I do know that they do not like listing mma events. The last UFC they listed 2 hours before the fights.

On sportsinteraction I even did a parlay with 2 fighters and the LA-Angels last night.

 

[Liquidnoose]

Maynard/Emerson fight...ending is very weird:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOo4wUL2suA

 

[mogo]

mutosu - i'll have to check out sportsinteraction for the next fights coming up in about 2 weeks then. i've also wanted to parlay huge favorites for UFC but never been allowed.

liquid - tough weekend with MMA wagers. FYI all 9 favorites won on saturday.... a bit scary but actually what i figured would happen. too bad the lines were just too damn big to actually even bet on them.

i wrote down all the lines from sportsbook before the fight.
if you would have bet all 9 favorites you would have risked $4,895 to win $900.....

 

[mutosufan]

mutosu - i'll have to check out sportsinteraction for the next fights coming up in about 2 weeks then. i've also wanted to parlay huge favorites for UFC but never been allowed.

liquid - tough weekend with MMA wagers. FYI all 9 favorites won on saturday.... a bit scary but actually what i figured would happen. too bad the lines were just too damn big to actually even bet on them.

i wrote down all the lines from sportsbook before the fight.
if you would have bet all 9 favorites you would have risked $4,895 to win $900.....

On SIA I parlayed Lietes -625, Huerta -769 and the Angels -175 and got it +106

I parlayed Penn -278, Lites -625 and Huerta -769 and got it to -128.

And then I did Penn -278, Lietes -625, Huerta -769 and Diaz -120 for +207.

Neither VIP or SIA has/had the undercard fights where you can really just unload your money, albeit high juice, on easy winners. I was ready to unload my account on the Barube fight because he is a part time fighter. He owns a restaurant in Tampa and the only reason he even started fighting because it was free advertisement for his place. Well he lost in like 1 min 44 seconds. And neither place offered it. But main card action should be available.

I know a lot of people have been taking dogs since there were a few upsets in a row. Big dogs dont win to often in mma. I finally got my friends that are new to it to realize that. You could tell the level of expertise when they get in the cage. Although homeboy from Alaska that fought Huerta brought some game for the 1st round then just got overwhelmed.

GL on this next card. He will be tough. As of now I am going with Marquardt and Tito. I look for SHerk to win a very boring fight. He is just a boring fighter. Nogoiria (sp?) will/should destroy Heath. Havent seen any odds on that one though.

 

[mutosufan]

Fighter salaries for TUF finale.

http://www.ufcjunkie.com/

 

[Liquidnoose]

Kendall Grove should go through Pat Cote in UFC 74.

 

[mutosufan]

Kendall Grove should go through Pat Cote in UFC 74.

I agree 100%. I think Grove is going to be a wrecking crew in the UFC. The 185 lb mw division is startign to get interesting. I think Grove will be right in the mix with a few more fights. I want to see how he deals with getting rocked for a round. See if he comes out timid and beaten or aggressive and more determined. I dont think I have seen him deal with adversity.