Tuesday's MLB...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
VK - I think so. I have felt pretty comfortable since about the middle of last week. Take away a couple of big losses on those two or three decisions last week, and I have a pretty good week.

Went 2-1 and won 1.34 yesterday. Coulda been bigger with the Arizona hit. Oh well. I'll stab at it again.

Some Tuesday thoughts...

I actually have a strong lean to Diego in Philly. Maddux was putrid in the first inning of that AZ start, but that was the night after the 22-inning game, and they hung him out there to dry. Still, he battled and threw 113 pitches, I believe, which was his most since the middle of 2005. Throw out that start, and he's given up just 15 hits and 3 walks in 25 IP (0.72 WHIP)... Hamels has struggled a bit in his last two starts. He's also faced Diego three times in his career, without winning, and it should be noted that he was a Padre fan growing up - for whatever that's worth. I made that game a half-dollar and give Diego a fair chance tonight.

Lowe had some elbow tightness last time and that limited his pitch count. I really like the way Miller battled last time out. He's yet to have his good stuff (so to speak) this season but looks a bit more comfortable each time out there. The Dodgers have been abysmal on offense in games east of the Pacific time zone (save for the one BP Cincy game) and this price looks way out of whack.

Sheets coming off the DL, while Marquis threw a season-high 98 pitches in Denver last week. Wind is blowing in from right to left, which explains the total in the 8.5 range, but I'd like to get a crack at over 8 flat or so if the Sheets fans get ahold of it (as I presume they will).

This is a crossroads start for Cueto. As you said, his strikeout rate has dropped precipitously since the Arizona game. No strikeouts after the first inning against Houston in a getaway day game? That's not acceptable. I realize the 'Stros were hitting well for most of last week, but... Now he gets a Cardinal lineup that he should be able to handle in a pitcher's park.

Cassel is a soft-tosser that the D-Backs should figure out if they saw some of the mistakes Cincy made last time out (swinging at first or second-pitches when being patient could have behooved them) - and Gonzalez looks hittable.

Lincecum's a great power pitcher (and the anchor of my fantasy staff) - but was curious if any of you had any concerns with his higher-than-expected 1.40 WHIP. Obviously he can work himself out of trouble, but will it be like that all year? Giants always win when he starts.

In the AL...

I think the Carmona price is way out of whack. Cleveland is supposed to be the better team, but Silva has finished six innings each time out this season, and his 1.17 WHIP to Carmona's 1.71 tells me that the Mariners can create some havoc if they're patient tonight.

Looks to me like a T-Ball game in the Bronx tonight. Until either one of those pitchers shows me something better than what they have so far, it's hard not to envision an offensive explosion out of at least one of these teams - and if each one gets to five, you can't lose going OVER.

Olson had a decent minor-league start to the season before his last start, an abbreviated 41-pitch outing. Have to see if the Rays can stay hot, and Hammel is likely pitching to stay in the rotation with Garza already back and Kazmir looming in the very near future.

Looks like a prime spot for Halladay to finally get a win here, but all hats off to him if he can do it going the distance against this lineup...

Pitchers' duel in Tejas. Hide the women and children.

Interesting to note that the only runs Oakland got off Boof the Goof the other day came via the walk. Note that in the five Boof starts, the anemic Minny offense has scored three or less runs.

Already got a lot of bets in; will get back in a bit with some of them...

:cheers:
 
Rex : It has been a while since the yanks have gotten to 5 & the same can be said about the tribe, however I do agree the pitchers in this one may make it happen. I also agree with you on Toronto, however I am skeptical of the rest, best of health on those. GL on ur action!
 
Carmona has been awful walking far more than he strikes out & the tribe can not score, agree with you that line is out of whack. Rogers has been the Tigers worst in 2008, he looks like a bad batting practice pitcher thus far.
 
Gusting wind blowing out at 12-17 mph at Yankee Stadium to right field. That game should go over with ease considering those two lineups with those pitchers.

GL Rex.
 
MCG : Yanks lineup nothing to be afraid of lately, but Rogers is horrible so that may jump start their offense if that is possible. Yanks are very fortunate to have been playing a slumping Cleve team who also can not score lately.
 
MCG : Yanks lineup nothing to be afraid of lately, but Rogers is horrible so that may jump start their offense if that is possible. Yanks are very fortunate to have been playing a slumping Cleve team who also can not score lately.


Fair point about the Yankees, but remember that Cleveland can pitch a little. Its reasonable to expect both of these lineups to get four on any night, throw in two bad pitchers with good wind conditions and I see no reason both shouldn't push several more across the plate.
 
Just confirmed A-Rod is out tonight, now who scares ya in the Yanks lineup?


Just posted abook in the discussion thread about the Yanks and even the total.....

Exactly who scares you for NYY vs a LHP ? The RHB will likely be Jeter , Ensberg , Molina and Duncan plus Cabrera as a switch hitter. While Cabrera has 2 hrs and 4 rbis this year vs LH in nearly 280 abs previously vs LH he had just 2hrs and 18 rbi. Then we have Damon , Matsui , Abreu and Cano although I wouldnt be suprised to Gonzalez at 2nd base here. The only thing Rogers has done is get out LH so far as most of the trouble vs TExas was started by Kinsler and Young. Rogers was solid vs KC and Tor teams who havent hit LH yet like NYY...Yanks 5-0 under although all road games vs LHP ...Bale , Burress , Laffey , Sowers and Sabathia...actually worse is the Yanks have 49 hits vs LH and all but 9 are singles !! We know that LHP are a plus in the Stadium with the deep dimensions to LCF...

On the other side take away the Rangers series and the late inning vs Twinkies what has Det done offensively?? Rangers came in limping and got smoked while Twins allowed 16 of theer 17 run in the 6th to 8th innings in there 2 game set thats almost never gonna happen vs Minnys pen...I think Det scored 11 runs vs LAA in 3 games , 10 @ Tor in 3 games started by RH , only 5 in 3 games at Chicago ...and 1 combined vs Carmona and Dice K......granted now Granderson is back and Guillen has missed some time...

Hard to see fireworks here...IMHO..dont discount Hughes he was only terrible in the real cold weather starts , solid vs Tor , looked sharp till the rain in Chi and was real solid @ Bal 1 run and 4 hits through 5 till the single , single , single party happened in the 6th at Balt.....only home once so far this season...

:cheers:



 
I'll take your words for it on the Yanks since you guys watch them more than I do, so do you guys think the Tigers are worth a play tonight?
 
Would not play Detroit because Rogers sucks, but in long run there will be plenty of value playing against Yanks.:smiley_acbe: just be patient
 
I'll take your words for it on the Yanks since you guys watch them more than I do, so do you guys think the Tigers are worth a play tonight?


hell no !

<LI class=more>Yankees are 39-14 in their last 53 home games vs. a left-handed starter. <LI class=more>Yankees are 40-15 in their last 55 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 games following a win. <LI class=more>Yankees are 37-15 in their last 52 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. <LI class=more>Yankees are 46-19 in their last 65 games as a home favorite.<LI class=more>DET are 6-21 in the last 27 meetings in New York. <LI class=more>DET are 16-34 in the last 50 meetings.
Most important trend is the road trip trend because it shows they play well when they return home from long road trips which they are coming off . Granted could be different with no rest but a plus IMO...

More importantly Det just lost 2 of 3 at home to LAA facing all RHP beating only Mosely and scoring 11 runs in3 games...They lost 2 of 3 in Tor vs RHP and scored 10 runs , they lost 2 of 3 in chi getting shutout twice and winning only IMO because Willis left facing Thome in the 1st inning with 2nd and 3rd no out and there at the moment ALL WORLD long reliever Aquilino Lopez shut them down ...they lost 11-1 @ Cle facing Carmona and 5-0 @ Boston facing Dice K......

so whats that 2-6 vs RHP on the road ..?? One win was when Willis left early to there benefit as they were about to be in a nice hole as he walked the first 2 guys , throw a WP to get them to 2nd and 3rd and I believe Thome was ahead 3-1....no out...the other win vs a RHP stopped a 10 game losing streak in day games to start the season on a Monday in Tor while the jays had won 2 straight and decided to rest Wells after just releasing Big Hurt so there lineup was basically terrible that day....

So if you take Det your asking Rogers to outpitch someone on the road for basically even money ??? Not for me but this isnt an easy game...:cheers:
 
sorry fellas for the delay. Was busy.

Here's what I got tonight. Posting late but I don't feel bad about it, as you have seen my thoughts earlier, and these plays basically echo them and/or are UMP plays.

Diego plus 180 for 1 unit. Value here in Maddux. Passing the total as it goes against the correlation.

Clubber in Miami. Don't like the pitchers much but hey, Miller has to get better and Lowe can be great. Betting against the steam late.

THe play: LA/FLA UNDER 9.5 -105 for 1 unit.

Clubber at Wrigley. Sheets off a missed start, and Marquis threw a season-high in pitches in Denver. I'll bite.

THe play: OVER 8 -105 for 1 unit in Chicago.

Cueto dominates. If the Reds can hit....

THe play: Cincy -1.5 runs plus 155 for 1 unit.

Where did they come up with this Zona total? GOtta pass, as Laz DIaz is a clubber behind the plate, ruining my OVER bet.

AL

Seattle plus 170 for 1 unit.

Detroit to OVER parlay for 1 unit. OVER 10 -105 for 1 unit.

In Roy We Trust. Toronto -104 for 1 unit.

Didn't wait on the ump in Arlington. Guess I shoulda. Ugh. I still can't bet them two guys under, not for anything.

THe play: OVER 10.5 -105 for 1 unit KC/TEX

I think that's it. I'll double check for additions later.

GL!
 
Where did they come up with this Zona total? GOtta pass, as Laz DIaz is a clubber behind the plate, ruining my OVER bet.

AL

Didn't wait on the ump in Arlington. Guess I shoulda. Ugh. I still can't bet them two guys under, not for anything.

THe play: OVER 10.5 -105 for 1 unit KC/TEX

GL!

Ha...fucking DIAZ in Zona is killing me. Lid will prolly be open and Gonzo is 4-1 O/U when it is. I have a 18-5 O/U wind trend there too...Fucking need 11 for a winner with a dead UNDER ump. OUCH.

Good Health on the OVER in Tejas...I'm must fucking crazy to even considering playing this one. lol

GL on the rest of your card bro!
 
Forgot one. NELSON in WAshington. Wind out, but still an UNDER guy. Waited out the steam, thankfully. Too bad I coulda waited a little more...

The play: UNDER 9.5 -110 for 1 unit.
 
Hey bro...LAD/FLO ump Barrett isn't a clubber. My numbers have him at 62.1% this season and 63.3% 2005-2008??? How far back are you going?
 
Shorty - He has been in the club before. Sorry; he is one of my honorary members because he's qualified before.

I liked U 9.5 flat or better there anyways; the ump just helped confirm my play.

I have a RR with Diego, Fla, Det and Tor so i might win all or none of them... but the total is a loser for sure.

GIBBY in Anaheim.

OVER 8 -110 there, 1 unit.

GL! Out for the night.
 
Unbefuckinglieveable. Dallas covers in the Nuba.

My 4 pitchers - Cueto, Milller (UGH)... Halladay (great, then loses), so go tim go....need a win....
 
cueto lose all his confidence?? ... that was my favorite play of the day and he just got shelled. A few more like that and they might check on homer bailey down in the minors.
 
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