Tuesday's MLB...and my first 4-unit play!

[CollegeKingRex]

OK fellas. Most UMP writeups are in that thread by Redbearde.

Went 1-4 and lost 3.1... Now 69-96 and down 13.02.

Here's what I'm messin' with.

Washington and Lannan offer big value tonight against Maine at this price. Going against the correlation but I've got a clubber going, in BARRETT.

The play: Washington plus 185 for 1 unit. UNDER 8 even for 1 unit.

Cub total should be about 16 with this wind, the Cub bats and these two goofs.

The plays: Cubs -1.5 runs plus 130 for 2 units. OVER 12 -105 for 1 unit.

Villanueva has no business being favored against Penny, who rarely has two bad starts in a row. This is a big bet, even without Furcal.

The play: Dodgers plus 106 for 2 units. Waiting on the UMP for an OVER guy for a possible correlated parlay (since most of the UNDER guys are gone for the day, I will likely have Dodgers plus 106 to OVER 9 -110 risking 1 unit. In fact, write it down and I'll scratch it later if need be).

Lohse has been awful in his last couple of starts and the Pirates are hitting the ball pretty well lately. At this price, I'm willing to risk whether they can carry it over on the road.

THe play: Pirates plus 140 for 1 unit.

Johnson has yet to pitch decently against a team with a pulse (last 2 foes)... Francis is improving each time out there, and now I get him at a great price against a slumping Snake offense. This is my biggest side bet of the month and a rare 4-unit baseball bet.

The play: Colorado plus 122 for 4 units.

Baltimore's Guthrie has been pretty solid. Beckett has had a great season, but the BoSox are in a mini-funk. Why not BAL at this price? Correlation looks good with LAZ DIAZ behind the dish, a clubber.

The play: Baltimore plus 153 for 1 unit. UNDER 8 even. 2-team parlay Bal+53 to U 8even risking 1 unit.

DARLING a clubber in Cleveland. Both pitchers are more than capable and lineups are struggling a bit.

The play: UNDER 8.5 even for 1 unit.

Back shortly with the rest...

:cheers:

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Dodgers OVER 9 even for 1 more unit.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

WOLF in Kansas City. He was a CLUBBER last year, and has a large, vertical strike zone. He's just 61.32 strikes this year, and 5-2 O/U... but those things tend to even out.

Grienke a better pitcher than Robertson by enough to offset KC's sorry offense.

The plays: Kansas City -122 for 1 unit. Parlay KC -122 to UNDER 9 -110 risking 1 unit.

And I lean Slowey but it's an OVER ump in Minnesota so I'm passing as it goes against the correlation. His WHIP is far better than his ERA. Toronto not hitting well at all, but Litsch is capable of silencing MIN bats as well.

Lean Chicago tonight but missed the value against Anaheim. Pass.

 

[Big Herm]

Nice write-up. Unfortunately I am on the other side of that Zona game, just no faith in Francis in the evening and Zona has hit him well so far this year. He does have a nice history at Chase field prior to this year, so maybe that will work back to his favor. Took the over in that game too, which may cover my ass a bit in case the Unit gets rocked. I certainly don't expect a great performance from Johnson, perhaps slightly better than Francis..this game will probably come down to the pens anyway.

Love that Cubs RL and on Baltimore as well(unfortunately it seems as they gave up 3 in the first). GL tonight

 

[Big Herm]

Also like KC a lot tonight.

 

[cashflowmatters]

Rex: 28 mph wind blowin in at Milw. Lke your card tonight, gl on all your action always.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Cash: Thanks brother. Roof closed in Milwaukee. Expect scoring to be a little higher when that happens...

Herm: Two errors in the first. Gotta love that. Jesus, nothing like giving Beckett a working margin. It might be 3-0 after the 7th or 8th inning now, ugh...

 

[tru]

good luck today rexy. talk to me more about tha rockies. i didnt get time to look over this card today much but jus a few glances i did like zona.

rockies 1-2 on tha road vs LHP this year
avg 1.67 runs in those 3 games
rockies 8-13 away overall this year
rockies avg .218 as a team vs LHP this year
rockies avg .221 as a team vs LHP away this year

both these pitches in tha 5s wit eras, snakes hit well at home, an hit damn good vs lefties. i really like tha snakes in this spot, talk me outa it rexy

 

[cashflowmatters]

Lannan looks like he is gas can material tonight vs Mets. He truck out 11 mets in his last try, not looking like the same guy tonight, need a NY miracle tonight for the Nats

 

[cashflowmatters]

Well we escaped disaster at Mets as mets loaded the bases with no outs and only get 1. Top 3rd 1-0 mets

 

[G-Man]

GL on the card tonight.:shake:

 

[cashflowmatters]

2 run dinger for Zimmerman , NATS 2-1

 

[cashflowmatters]

Rex: Beckett not looking so hot, balt with 5 hits already. Ball jumpin at shea, a mets dinger makes it 2-2

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Cash: The mets never hit the ball out of the infield in that inning. A slow roller, Delgado basically bunted and a walk.

Tru: Johnson's first three starts were against the Padres twice and Frisco once (AKA, the worst two offenses in baseball)... Houston and Philly both beat him up, and Colorado is more than capable, despite their lackluster numbers thus far. Just saying... price looks high to me when you considering Johnson might not be right. He ain't pitched in a week.

D-Backs 2-6 last eight games, and got seven runs and 13 hits in the three games in Chicago. I know Colorado has been equally bad (28 runs in last 10 road games, 2-8 record)... Francis has struggled with the D-Backs this year, but those first two series were played early, early in the season, and when Zona won five of those six games, a lot of emotion was admittedly there, as they really wanted to avenge the playoffs in last year. Well, it's the middle of May now, and all of that emotion is gone.

Four units; I might lose, but I like my side more than any I've bet all season.

 

[cashflowmatters]

Beckett getting lit up, 5-3 balt, 2 nights in a row Boston pitching getting hammered, whats that all about??

 

[cashflowmatters]

Rex: Church homered in the 3rd?

 

[tru]

gl rexy not fuckin wit it. i backed outta tha parlay i was gonna roll. lad ml/cubs ml/dbacks rl

good luck on all ur games tonight kid

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Good to know I got the Church of Tru at my back... Hope you hit the Dodgers and Flubs straight up...

 

[CollegeKingRex]

NELSON, one of the best UNDER umpires in the game, popped up in Phoenix.

Sometimes it pays to stay in the bushes for a few extra minutes. I was all set to go home and decided I'd wait out NELSON.

The play: UNDER 9 even money in Arizona for 1 unit

 

[tru]

Good to know I got the Church of Tru at my back... Hope you hit the Dodgers and Flubs straight up...

nah not on either game only liked them after a lil look was jus gonna do a fun parlay today, didnt have enuff time to look over everything in all tha games

 

[cashflowmatters]

My god Fuckin Francis can not retire anyone, the unit is not what he was, but Francis looks like he is gonna spot them 3 or more in the 1st