Tuesday's Milleb...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
One now before it gets away, as the Doyers are moving.

Doyers -1.5 +172 medium 2 units (alternate runline). Just a math play with the wrong team being favored here.

Will check in with record and a few more after bit once the markets develop.

GL!
 
Sunday 2-2 and -4.12 thanks to the unbelieveable final score in the Bronx. Ayer 2-2 and wash out the Reds and +0.14.

Now 22-20 and +1.62 on the season.

Reds cannot be a home dog tonight. Superior team, superior pitching. I expect them to win the game where I don't get to cash my bet, then win the second one for good measure.

The play: Cincy +103 (after commission) medium 2u.

Another gross misprice on Seattle today. Beaven's first start at the big league level after a rough spring, but he's rounding into form and he's at least capable of getting these Tejas guys out; the same can't be said for Ranger gascan Robbie Ross, who miraculously walked through a Fenway minefield largely unscathed despite walking six last week. He won't be as lucky today against the eventual West division champs.

The play: Seattle +137 medium 2u.

Would think Peavy would be right tonight but the abnormal cold weather will keep me away there.

This KC pitcher might be the goods, and he might strike out the world tonight against these Fun bunch wind machines. Harrell stinks. Lay the RL and be done with it.

The play: KC -1.5 +108 (after commish) medium to big 2.5 units.

I'm not a Straily fan but I am buying the goods on Richards after his last start. We get another AAA fillin (Segal) behind the dish tonight in Anaheim, and those have guys have seemed to by and large have a bit bigger zone from the (admittedly small) sample size I've seen in 2014. The total seems a full run high at this level, which is enough to warrant a wager.

The play: Oak/Anaheim UNDER 8 +117 (selling a half at pinny) medium 2u.

Good luck gents. Off to finish tomorrow's nuba and hockey...
 
My guy that had decent lines is gone

Back to my old faithful.....dimelines...PUKE

makes baseball not fun to play
 
Nuba I do the work for linesmaking purposes but I rarely bet that shit. Hockey I don't bet much before the playoffs but I'm more active now.
 
i don't do nuba but considering Memphis tomorrow, can't imagine we see a -3 or less tho?

Also agree about KC, but I have four plays right now and that is nearly a third of my volume so far this season so i think ATL and however I'd play KC (likely HOU TT under) probably don't make the cut
 
GW - Don't eliminate plays based on being selective certain days. You make your own numbers; trust your work.

One time a sharp guy told a respected bookmaker friend of mine he only bets UNDERS. The bookmaker said that's the stupidest thing he's ever heard. He says if you do all the work, then that eliminates roughly one half of your bets for no reason.

This isn't quite the same parallel, but you should never bet 1 or 3 or x numbers per day just to have that many bets. There are days I'll have 10 bets and others where I'll have none. Have to let the price and market dictate what you do.

Memphis gonna open 4 or so and 190 ish. Maybe Minnesota and Charlotte games will get overnight lines. The rest won't be up before 10 or 11 tomorrow morning.
 
I don't really agree that that's stupid... Two years ago I only took unders and I did a lot better than I've been doing now...sometimes a guy just has a niche for spotting low scoring games, or something like that
 
My guy that had decent lines is gone

Back to my old faithful.....dimelines...PUKE

makes baseball not fun to play

You mean you can no longer bet dimelines? Dimelines are the best you can get in baseball....no?
 
GW - Don't eliminate plays based on being selective certain days. You make your own numbers; trust your work.

One time a sharp guy told a respected bookmaker friend of mine he only bets UNDERS. The bookmaker said that's the stupidest thing he's ever heard. He says if you do all the work, then that eliminates roughly one half of your bets for no reason.

This isn't quite the same parallel, but you should never bet 1 or 3 or x numbers per day just to have that many bets. There are days I'll have 10 bets and others where I'll have none. Have to let the price and market dictate what you do.

Memphis gonna open 4 or so and 190 ish. Maybe Minnesota and Charlotte games will get overnight lines. The rest won't be up before 10 or 11 tomorrow morning.

thanks for the thoughts, it's a never-ending debate to where I've settled in. Ultimately I have noticed over my 7 years doing this that I am not nearly as successful with nights filled with action as I am over the long run with 1 or 2. That is certainly a portion of me not grabbing ATL last night along with the Kimbrel shoulder questions, but I think my heavy-dog strategy will keep me off KC as I don't really feel comfortable playing a home team's TT under. To your point I definitely am trusting my work currently as I've made 12 good bets and 3 bad ones yet sit 6-9 on the season with the expectation that that turns around soon and I go on a run
 
how do you quantify 12 good bets and 3 bad ones, just out of curiosity? I have my own answer to this as well, and will share another sharp friend of mine's thoughts later today as well...
 
how do you quantify 12 good bets and 3 bad ones, just out of curiosity? I have my own answer to this as well, and will share another sharp friend of mine's thoughts later today as well...

when i watched them if I would feel comfortable making them again based on what I saw (not really as worried about the odds I got in measuring this as I've beaten the market on almost everything so far).

The only no's I have are Colon vs LAA Sunday (price makes up for a bit of it, but he got toasted), the BOS-NYY SNB over due to the lineups being so thin/chasing and similar lineup thoughts on TOR-BAL Saturday (also had some chasing portions to it)

bad beats so far were the Perkins blown save/Plouffe throwing the game away (Correia vs Paulino), Strasburg-Koehler u7 last week in DC (2-1 bottom 8 ends 7-1) and the 6 unearned runs that sent KC-MIN over by a 1/2 on Saturday along with last night's Rockies debacle

A great bet that I lost was Cobb outpitching Yu, another I'd make again was the Lyles-Paulino over that lost by a run though could have seen a couple more cross the plate...

I guess I am easy on myself because I'm really only looking for my side to be in it especially when factoring in I haven't played a favorite yet and most of my totals were +100 or better (a lot thanks to your guidance on what the half-runs are worth from about 5 years ago), but i'm intrigued to hear what your amigo has to say
 
can a good bet be just simply beating the close?

oh jesus, not gonna take the bait on this one or this will go 40 pages

In price sports like MLB I think it's a much bigger deal than my other main sport NCAAB where getting the best number and seeing your side dominate the game only to lose by a 1/2 ATS (UNC +1.5 vs ISU), but I'm talking strictly from watching the game and seeing how I felt about where my money was
 
I hear u GW and agree, i didnt see your answer when i posted that question. Also curious to see what Rex says.
 
yes, you guys aren't making this too difficult. Sharp friend only cares about getting the best of the number. In the end, he figures the results will take care of themselves. He only cares that he's getting the best price.

GW, your "good" and "bad" bet tracker is something similar to what I used to do, but in the end it's just too much work for me to sit there and decide whether I made a proper or improper bet. If I am getting the best of a number on something I feel strongly about, I'll try to bet it and not think too hard about whether I should or not. An easy way for me to get by doing that is by putting in a price in the exchange. Sometimes they won't match me, and I'll have to decide later whether it's worth a couple of extra pennies to go match someone else or to leave it be.

the "right side" argument we could all have until we're blue in the face. I had a discussion with Ron Sacco about six years ago about "right sides". He told me "Son, I've been doing this for 50 years, and the only right side is the one who gets the money after the game" or something to that effect. I wanted to pop him across the forehead for his condescending attitude. Some people feel that way, but most I run into are like me if they watch the games, want to learn for future references, etc., what the "right" sides are, regardless of who gets the cash in one specific game.
 
It's really hard for me to quantify a good bet or a bad bet. Sometimes, a pitcher just has nothing. Nothing explains why the guy comes in and gives up 6 runs in 3 innings. Maybe some hits fall, maybe this/maybe that. But, the game could be 12-1 on the losing side and still be hard to say good/bad bet.

I bet the NYY/Bos over and I would make that bet 10 out of 10 despite the total being 5 runs away from cashing. I dont care how the lineups looked.

You can only "cap" so much. You can't cap that a guy hitting a homer will be a solo shot vs. a 3 run shot. You cant cap that a team will perform with runners on base vs. not on base. In baseball, the general rule is 2 hits equal a run. There were 7 hits and a walk in the first 2 innings of that Boston game with only 1 run.
 
yes, you guys aren't making this too difficult. Sharp friend only cares about getting the best of the number. In the end, he figures the results will take care of themselves. He only cares that he's getting the best price.

GW, your "good" and "bad" bet tracker is something similar to what I used to do, but in the end it's just too much work for me to sit there and decide whether I made a proper or improper bet. If I am getting the best of a number on something I feel strongly about, I'll try to bet it and not think too hard about whether I should or not. An easy way for me to get by doing that is by putting in a price in the exchange. Sometimes they won't match me, and I'll have to decide later whether it's worth a couple of extra pennies to go match someone else or to leave it be.

the "right side" argument we could all have until we're blue in the face. I had a discussion with Ron Sacco about six years ago about "right sides". He told me "Son, I've been doing this for 50 years, and the only right side is the one who gets the money after the game" or something to that effect. I wanted to pop him across the forehead for his condescending attitude. Some people feel that way, but most I run into are like me if they watch the games, want to learn for future references, etc., what the "right" sides are, regardless of who gets the cash in one specific game.

As a professional poker player, there is nothing more tilting than people who qualify the "right side" as the side that wins the money. The side that had the best equity was the right side. You take a bad beat in the 9th on a couple errors on your +200 dog that should have won by 3 runs, you most certainly were on the right side, not the dolts taking the -230 or -240, just like when you get it in with AA vs KQ and lose, you were not on the wrong side either.
 
As a professional poker player, there is nothing more tilting than people who qualify the "right side" as the side that wins the money. The side that had the best equity was the right side. You take a bad beat in the 9th on a couple errors on your +200 dog that should have won by 3 runs, you most certainly were on the right side, not the dolts taking the -230 or -240, just like when you get it in with AA vs KQ and lose, you were not on the wrong side either.

i sort of look at it from a poker perspective as my college roommate came from a huge poker background and got me into that line of thinking. I guess I'm saying a good bet is one where I liked my chances considering all facets as opposed to wishing I hadn't gotten involved while I watched. Not sure either are right, but I certainly understand where you're coming from
 
Great thoughts as we all all gamble with some hybrid approach. It would seem to me that if you were measuring your success by beating the number than you have to flat bet, otherwise your random leverage compromises the results dramatically.
 
Only thing I can think of is GH and his 5k followers (storming the site now since a post on another blog went viral) are on Texas ha.
 
You mean you can no longer bet dimelines? Dimelines are the best you can get in baseball....no?
Laruex!!! What up dude, where ya been?

I could be wrong, but I thought dimelines were when they are always -130 -135 -140 -145 etc

I could very well have this backwards....For the last 2 years I had another out that would have "truer" lines, ie the -132 -133 etc

I certainly do not have matchbook like rex(think since we are in the states, we cannot)

Either way, I only deal local.....no more 5Dimes(kills me for boxing tho) or anything. While this may not be the "best" I am not doing CC and paying for my money and all that

just gonna stay old school...someone else will pop up with favorable lines, they always do

sorry for the clutter Rex, but this thread had a lil discussion anyway

Go Ms!!!!!
 
Laruex!!! What up dude, where ya been?

I could be wrong, but I thought dimelines were when they are always -130 -135 -140 -145 etc

I could very well have this backwards....For the last 2 years I had another out that would have "truer" lines, ie the -132 -133 etc

I certainly do not have matchbook like rex(think since we are in the states, we cannot)

Either way, I only deal local.....no more 5Dimes(kills me for boxing tho) or anything. While this may not be the "best" I am not doing CC and paying for my money and all that

just gonna stay old school...someone else will pop up with favorable lines, they always do

sorry for the clutter Rex, but this thread had a lil discussion anyway

Go Ms!!!!!

What's up Twinkie? How you been bro? I've been around a little, just haven't been posting too much....just kinda got a little sick of some things so decided to take a little break...sometimes we all need a break I guess. I do have a couple of stories for your acid thread though, so I'll post in there when I get a chance.

A dime line is when the spread has 10 cents difference, so it would be -130 and +120. This is the best you can get in baseball, many books offer 20 cent lines, where that same -130 favorite would only pay back +110 for the dog.

I guess you're saying that the book you're using now just isn't offering you the true lines, and is rounding them up. Are they offering you a dime line though? Will that -135 favorite pay back +125 on the dog? If so, you're not missing out too much....but if you're getting a 20 cent line on top of him rounding up the lines then that's a tough go of it for sure.
 
just looked at the Anaheim box, as I'm watching Vinny and the Doyers. Nine runs on 15 baserunners through 5.5, with only 1 home run and 3 left on base. Fucking awesome.
 
baseball is a funny game. In this Doyer/Giants, it's 2-2 through 10, and even though 25 men have been left on base, there is 0 chance that anyone who has watched most of it (all of the last 3 hours) can say OVER is right. There have been men on base here and there, but few hard-hit balls and these are two cold offensive teams at the moment.
 
Either way, I only deal local.....no more 5Dimes(kills me for boxing tho) or anything. While this may not be the "best" I am not doing CC and paying for my money and all that

just gonna stay old school...someone else will pop up with favorable lines, they always do

Twank... Why not just do Western Union deposits (they pay the fees) and get the free Western Union payouts?
 
baseball is a funny game. In this Doyer/Giants, it's 2-2 through 10, and even though 25 men have been left on base, there is 0 chance that anyone who has watched most of it (all of the last 3 hours) can say OVER is right. There have been men on base here and there, but few hard-hit balls and these are two cold offensive teams at the moment.

Beckett didn't give up a hit till what, the 5th inning? There were a ton of men left on base, plenty of opportunity for runs to be scored, just couldn't capitalize. Which tells me the Over was the right call, things just didn't go our way. Lincecum and Beckett were able to escape some pretty tough jams. 24 combined hits should have been plenty to get this game over.
 
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