Tuesdays Fun....and Discussion

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Date_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=7>MLB Baseball - Tue 4/29

</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD>Run Line</TD><TD>Money Line</TD><TD>Total Runs</TD><TD>More</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 4/29</TD><TD>951</TD><TD>San Diego Padres
G. Maddux</TD><TD>+1.5 -141</TD><TD>+162</TD><TD>OVER 9 +111</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>952</TD><TD>Philadelphia Phillies
C. Hamels</TD><TD>-1.5 +131</TD><TD>-170</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -121</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 4/29</TD><TD>955</TD><TD>Atlanta Braves
T. Glavine</TD><TD>-1.5 +148</TD><TD>-108</TD><TD>OVER 9 -101</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>956</TD><TD>Washington Nationals
T. Redding</TD><TD>+1.5 -158</TD><TD>+100</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -109</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 4/29</TD><TD>957</TD><TD>Los Angeles Dodgers
D. Lowe</TD><TD>-1.5 +123</TD><TD>-129</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -102</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:10 PM</TD><TD>958</TD><TD>Florida Marlins
A. Miller</TD><TD>+1.5 -133</TD><TD>+121</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 -108</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 4/29</TD><TD>959</TD><TD>Milwaukee Brewers
B. Sheets</TD><TD></TD><TD>-116</TD><TD></TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>960</TD><TD>Chicago Cubs
J. Marquis</TD><TD></TD><TD>+108</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 4/29</TD><TD>961</TD><TD>Cincinnati Reds
J. Cueto</TD><TD>-1.5 +151</TD><TD>-111</TD><TD>OVER 9 +113</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:15 PM</TD><TD>962</TD><TD>St Louis Cardinals
J. Pineiro</TD><TD>+1.5 -161</TD><TD>+103</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -123</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 4/29</TD><TD>963</TD><TD>Houston Astros
J. Cassel</TD><TD>+1.5 -146</TD><TD>+138</TD><TD>OVER 10 -102</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>06:40 PM</TD><TD>964</TD><TD>Arizona D-Backs
ED. Gonzalez</TD><TD>-1.5 +136</TD><TD>-146</TD><TD>UNDER 10 -108</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 4/29</TD><TD>965</TD><TD>Colorado Rockies
A. Cook</TD><TD>+1.5 -187</TD><TD>+110</TD><TD>OVER 7.5 +117</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>07:15 PM</TD><TD>966</TD><TD>San Francisco Giants
T Lincecum</TD><TD>-1.5 +177</TD><TD>-118</TD><TD>UNDER 7.5 -127</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 4/29</TD><TD>967</TD><TD>Seattle Mariners
C. Silva</TD><TD>+1.5 -140</TD><TD>+160</TD><TD>OVER 9 +125</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>968</TD><TD>Cleveland Indians
F. Carmona</TD><TD>-1.5 +130</TD><TD>-168</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -135</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 4/29</TD><TD>969</TD><TD>Detroit Tigers
K. Rogers</TD><TD>+1.5 -159</TD><TD>+122</TD><TD>OVER 10.5 -108</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>970</TD><TD>New York Yankees
P. Hughes</TD><TD>-1.5 +149</TD><TD>-130</TD><TD>UNDER 10.5 -102</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 4/29</TD><TD>971</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Rays
J. Hammel</TD><TD>-1.5 +135</TD><TD>-114</TD><TD>OVER 9.5 -110</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>972</TD><TD>Baltimore Orioles
G. Olson</TD><TD>+1.5 -145</TD><TD>+106</TD><TD>UNDER 9.5 +100</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 4/29</TD><TD>973</TD><TD>Toronto Blue Jays
R. Halladay</TD><TD>-1.5 +145</TD><TD>-111</TD><TD>OVER 9 -112</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD>974</TD><TD>Boston Red Sox
J. Lester</TD><TD>+1.5 -155</TD><TD>+103</TD><TD>UNDER 9 +102</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 4/29</TD><TD>975</TD><TD>Kansas City Royals
B. Tomko</TD><TD>+1.5 -158</TD><TD>+118</TD><TD>OVER 10.5 -101</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD>976</TD><TD>Texas Rangers
J. Jennings</TD><TD>-1.5 +148</TD><TD>-126</TD><TD>UNDER 10.5 -109</TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>Tue 4/29</TD><TD>977</TD><TD>Chicago White Sox
G. Floyd</TD><TD>-1.5 +156</TD><TD>-102</TD><TD>OVER 9 +108</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD1><TD>05:10 PM</TD><TD>978</TD><TD>Minnesota Twins
B. Bonser</TD><TD>+1.5 -166</TD><TD>-106</TD><TD>UNDER 9 -118</TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>Tue 4/29</TD><TD>979</TD><TD>Oakland Athletics
G. Smith</TD><TD>+1.5 -167</TD><TD>+129</TD><TD>OVER 8.5 +109</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=AD2><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD>980</TD><TD>LAA Angels
J. Saunders</TD><TD>-1.5 +157</TD><TD>-137</TD><TD>UNDER 8.5 -119</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Three things I know-

1- Alex Rodriguez will not play tmrw and probably not the next few days. As always that may change but that is what he said after the game today.

2- Ben Sheets returns from the DL to start @ Wrigley

3-Tom Glavine also returns from the DL to pitch @ Wash the place of his last start and he was on shaky ground that day.

For the most part I tend to look to fade teams who start a pitcher fresh off the DL.
 
I really like that price on Maddux actually. Hamels hasnt been himself lately and has got hit around a little bit especially the last time out.

Liking the Nats with Glavine coming off the DL. Redding has been solid the last couple times. Last game against the Mets. 5IP/3ER/3K. And 11 ground ball outs which is always a good thing.

Lincecum has been lights out lately. Only allowing 4ER in his last 29 innings worked while striking out 36 hitters over that time. Rockies have got to him though both times they have faced him though. And with Cook pitching the best he has pitched in a long time think I am leaning Rockies here. Cook is inducing a lot of ground balls and with this horrible Giants lineup I think Cook contains them.
 
Some quick Yankee comments...

They finally return home after a 10 game trip which it seemed they were really looking forward to doing (kinda obvious statement). While they went just 5-5 the fact they won the last 2 probably makes them feel good . Posada is on the DL and now ARod will supposedly miss here and possibly the entire DET series. This clearly weakens there offense and especially vs LHP. Enter another LHSP Kenny Rogers which makes this the 4 th straight LHP . You dont have to look deep to realize Yanks especially when the big guns arent hitting dont seem to matchup well vs LHP.

Some interesting backdrop here. Rogers had lost all his starts vs NY since leaving the Yanks until his gem in the playoffs back in 06. NY also lost there last game ovs Det 16-0 when Mussina was shelled. I would think they have some recollection of that game. So I think NYY has some minor motivational edges along with the happy to be home vibe.

<LI class=more>Yankees are 39-14 in their last 53 home games vs. a left-handed starter. <LI class=more>Yankees are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter. <LI class=more>Yankees are 37-15 in their last 52 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Basically I like the situation for NY and the price but concerned with the weakened lineup and would like to see how the weather turns out as I will not back Hughes in cold weather. I am fine with hughes pitching as he was bad more in the cold weather games in Boston and Chi then anything else...gotta toughen that kid up ! Some disadvantage in Det having the day off for travel while NYY has to fly back from Cle though the game did move quick . Solid pens as well makes 10.5 or 11 seem pretty high for a total on what should at least be a cool night...Tigers 11 runs scored last 6 away vs RH SP and that followed 11 runs in the 1st 3 games they opposed a RH but one included a knuckleballer so not sure I would count....basically 16 runs in 8 games vs RH SP so far on the road...but they also didnt have Granderson...so weigh it with that in mind...

Clearly I dont act until usually shortly before gametime but this has my interest for an under and NYY play....:shake:
 
No study under in Anaheim,under at least first half in Baltimore and the Cardinals. Lot of silly things up there but those are the first to draw my eye.
 
Actually I take that back Blue. I believe it has only been 1 start
 
Last couple times out against the Cubs he has been outstanding. Opening day he pitched a gem and did not get the win. Just throughout his career he has pitched very well at Wrigley for whatever reason. I think he has another solid start tommorow
 
I think Seattle looks pretty nice at +159. Carmona has 22 walks in his 5 starts which is alarming . Silva pitches pretty well.
 
Boston is on a 5 game losing streak. Toronto just broke their 6 game losing streak. Halladay dosn't usually fare well against Boston. Toronto hasn't hit Lefties well either this season. I'd prolly play Boston or nothing in this 1. No Ortiz from what I know.
 
TheSportsThing said:
I think Seattle looks pretty nice at +159. Carmona has 22 walks in his 5 starts which is alarming . Silva pitches pretty well.
Click to expand...

I dont think Silva is going to keep this up though. He has been pitching out of his mind lately. This could be the start with the Cleveland offense where he gets roughed around a bit
 
I will be on the Astros tomorrow for a lot of similar angles that have been working so far this year. Not a Gonzalez fan and stuff to junk applies here. Meanwhile the dbacks see an unknown righty which should spell trouble for them... atleast some. price is generous.

i will be betting the reds as well. Cueto has been almost unhittable by any team that hasnt seen him yet and the reds hit piniero well. Still say he should be a long relief guy and not a starter ... though last time i said that he pitched his ass off. Reds are officially playing better baseball right now. Guess the concern would be the number of HR cueto has allowed so far.

Over in baltimore looks promising. Olsen is not a mlb caliber pitcher and Hammel has been hit hard by orioles in the past.

agree with signalcaller about the rockies.

if i can get a 9 in anaheim i might be looking at an under there.

White sox historically hit bonser well and bonser seems to prefer to be on the road this year. Floyd has been hit well by twins as well. i see an over there and i have a BIG lean to the white sox in that one. i hardly ever win a game involving bonser though.

hate to say it after all the bashing i have done on lester but i like the red sox a bit here.

And maddux plus 160 always has to get consideration.

done with half the games so far and i like a lot for tomorrow. gonna be a big card for me.
 
Good stuff fellas. Some responses to your points ...

Not sure I agree that much with fading Hamels in favor of Maddux. Always leary of backing Maddux in a hitters park first and also SDs 1st time traveling East. With Hamels he has NOT been stellar his last two but you have to weigh he faced the Mets who at one point where 8-1 vs LHP and he was opposing Johan Santana. The next game he travled to Milw and faced one of the toughest lineups against LHP and if he didnt pitch to Fielder might have won but he was winning 4-3 in the b7th or 8th.He did have 11Ks as well. His 121 pitch count is concerning and I would like to see in the past how hehas bounced back from 120+ games but the extra day should help that. He lost last year @ SD 1-0 and right now this years lineup is much hitting much worse then last seasons SD team even if most names remain the same. SD just 180 this year vs LHP and 161 past 10 games plus lost to Sanchez in SF 1-0 another solid young LHP. Just hard to see them getting any runs here. Understandable the price is seemingly high but I wouldnt characterize the line as off...plus SD killed me on Sunday as I had them ML and to finish a 4 team parlay losing nearly 3 units instead of winning 11...

In regards to Carlos Silva one thing that immediately stands out he is two entirely different pitcher home and away if you check the splits. I believe he has improved to a degree this season but still leary of backing him. Not crazy about Tribes offense with Sizemore out as they didnt do much offensively all weekend. Not concerned much with Carmona's wildness but somewhat concerned with his inconsistency , the game in KC was the firsttime he was actually hit around some if I recall. Tough game but w/o Sizemore could present value for the dog..

Already mentioned by interest in NY would be interested in Tucks reasoning for an over. Personally I dont think there stats apply much here due to some NYY injuries weakening thelineup and Det just not hiiting RHP on the road yet and Hughes IMO is fine just a couple bad starts due to cold weather...

Hammell throwing well but road chalk seems crazy ...

Have to agree interested in Lester somewhat as Fenway not Halladay's fav place to pitch unlike Yankee Stadium , Sox in need of a win , and Jay shitting vs LHP which may have been cured with Rolens return.

Would be thinking about fading ATL and Glavine

Also as much as I agree Sheets has been solid @ Wrigley to lay chalk with them away vs RHP when we dont know the plan for Sheets and there pen struggling.

Hard to back Tomko in a hitters park like Arlington and need to read up jennings as he has been inconsistent..

Floyd has slowly been earning my respect and Boonser has lost like 10 straight at home despite at times pitching well..

Cueto road chalk ?

Overs I like late in Arizona and also Oakland again...A's lineup just built now to hit LHP...so prefer Oak as well

be back tmrw ..BOL:cheers:



.
 
love this thread so far.

oakland has some bad splits against saunders and joe is pitching really well. Dont think the angels have seen smith yet ....two decent bullpens in my estimation though angels taxed a bit. if i see a nine i think its worth a play.

Having a real hard time with the braves/nats and tigers/yanks. Some difficult stuff to sift through so likely passing on both.

Will sheets be on a pitch count watch ????????? Cause i wouldnt want my money on the brewers pen for extended innings.

BTW i lay off matt cain and this happens ?????
 
FYI: Carlos Silva had tightness in his right thigh last game and left in the 7th inning. His spike apparently got stuck in the dirt trying to make a pickoff attempt. I don't know if it was that serious but thought I'd bring it up being that I'm considering Seattle.
 
Thought the manager said after the game that they were just being extra cautious and that silva had already thrown over 80 pitches up to that point. I think he should be pretty normal here health wise. not much of an opinion on how he pitches though.
 
I actually did play Cain pissed I passed on Gaudin. With Cain he really wasnt very good just luckyin a sense that COL is slumping. He went 5.1 threw 100+ pitches and left with2 MOB which obviously didnt score. Chulk really is a plus for that pen . Big reason why I played SF and under was outside of resting Lewis and Bowker they actually had a full lineup of there vets and the other was is Cain is considerable better "luck"on 5 days rest which he was here . I noticed both his bad starts this year came on 6 days rest and when I back track it seems to be a trend for him early on in his career to be better on normal rest and have more success. Strangely his BAA seems to be lower on the longer rest but his stats actually show a better ERA and W/L on normal rest.....


<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1.98</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>13.2</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.170</TD></TR><TR class=bg4 align=left><TD>Category</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>ERA</TD><TD>G</TD><TD>GS</TD><TD>CG</TD><TD>SHO</TD><TD>SV</TD><TD>SVO</TD><TD>INN</TD><TD>H</TD><TD>R</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>HR</TD><TD>HBP</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>IBB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD>SB</TD><TD>CS</TD><TD>PK</TD><TD>BK</TD><TD>WP</TD><TD>AVG</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>14.63</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>8.0</TD><TD align=right>15</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.405</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>3.51</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>115.1</TD><TD align=right>102</TD><TD align=right>47</TD><TD align=right>45</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>48</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>92</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>.239</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>3.78</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>78.2</TD><TD align=right>66</TD><TD align=right>34</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>30</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>65</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>.231</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=left>7</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>3.76</TD><TD align=left>15</TD><TD align=left>15</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>95.2</TD><TD align=left>81</TD><TD align=left>42</TD><TD align=left>40</TD><TD align=left>10</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>39</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>88</TD><TD align=left>10</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>.227</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=left>6</TD><TD align=left>7</TD><TD align=left>4.45</TD><TD align=left>16</TD><TD align=left>15</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>89.0</TD><TD align=left>69</TD><TD align=left>47</TD><TD align=left>44</TD><TD align=left>7</TD><TD align=left>3</TD><TD align=left>45</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>86</TD><TD align=left>5</TD><TD align=left>2</TD><TD align=left>0</TD><TD align=left>1</TD><TD align=left>4</TD><TD align=left>.211</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


With Oak tmrw the thing I see is what Frank Thomas does for there lineup especially when facing LH SP. It gives them basically 9 solid hitters to start the lineup. Both SP have been solid but also have recieved at least 5 runs of support in 7 of there 9 starts to date. Saunders 18.1 inn 22 hits and 7 walks in 3 starts vs them. LAA hitting above 300 vs LHP somewhat to my suprise so far . I wouldnt expect this total to go to 9 but of course it might after Oak scored 14. Granted both Pens basically got the day off here.. I can see the arguement for an underbased on solid SP matchup and rested pens but I think both teams will hit some tmrw....more a gut thing which could change....

GL tmrw VK talk to you tmrw..
 
Just a guess by game time Anaheim is an 8 total. The 9.5 total looks a little crazy to me in Baltimore. We have Garret who in his last 5 tripple a starts went 24 innings, gave up 6 runs and no home runs so he was averaging giving up a run every 4 innings. We have Tampa and Baltimore 2 teams with good pens. Tampa last 10 has gone under 7 of their last 10 while Baltimore has gone under 8 of last 10. Both teams are playing well and that total looks very high to me.
NY total. Not sure what to say. When Rogers was a good pitcher he got destroyed in that park. Last 3 starts there 13, 13, and 19 runs were scored and now he does not seem capable of pitching at all. Would expect him to give up a quick 6 runs in the first 4 innings. Joba has pitched 2 days in a row though with low counts. Bruney gone. Detroit is going to have to react. Why not 14 runs? Will talk sides later but obviously Cardinals is a good positional play. Will wait on ump info since if I play it will be RL.
 
uh oh... hate being opposite of you , tuck ......... usually means i lose. I love the reds tomorrow. gonna be on the orioles over as well.

i better warn my landlord.

orioles hit Hammel well. I don't believe in Garret Olsen.
 
By the way did any one notice who the umpire was when Cain won at home. :smiley_acbe: Emmel.
 
Some weather warnings tommorrow.

--looks like a high probability of rain tomorrow .... so keep that in mind if you plan on laying huge money based on starting pitching as any delays could mean a short day for hamels. Also could mean padres bullpen might have to pitch innings again. would be careful with an under here.

-- Also looks like rain in boston , wrigley and new york .... so keep that in mind before laying huge number with santana as well.

just some thoughts because i hate making a bet based largely on the starter only to see him pitch 3 innings before a weather delay.
 
Thanx for the weather updates. Gotta keep an eye out. I'll know for sure how the NY game will be before gametime. I'm usually right around the Shea area alot.
 
Vegaskyle. Forget me. Its the situation you have to deal with Cueto. He pitches in front of Harang which is a bad spot and the reason he has lost 4 in a row. It would actual amuse me to see the Reds sweep the Cardinals and I will try hard to see that side but if Cardinals pay well on the RL it may be hard not to bet them. Meanwhile Garret is young I do not think you should be so quick to judge him.
 
yeah he is young enough that he can improve. i have watched him pitch though and wasnt impressed with his stuff. When he was called up last year he struggled a lot with control. Also, while the orioles bullpen has overachieved so far , i don't really think they are as good as the numbers early indicate ( could be wrong of course ) and you wouldnt expect olsen to throw a ton of innings here. Also prefer the rays bats vs lefties as compared to righties. I do hate the fact that the rays havent seen him before ---an angle that has helped me cash many an under so far --- but i dont trust him to throw strikes.

just have a hard time not backing the reds here. Cueto might have a bad spot in the rotation but he has pitched really well vs some decent lineups and has been very successful vs teams that havent seen him before.. Piniero has pitched better than one would have expected but he has faced the giants twice and then the pirates. Weak weak lineups and i like how the reds lineup matches up against righties in general. They have also crushed piniero when they have seen him. looked it up when i was capping the game and i want to say it was .345 against him but could be off a little. Also , just think the cardinals are not playing as well the last few weeks as compared to the start of the year where as the reds seem to be building some momentum.

i already bet the reds earlier hehe at -105.
 
tuck321 said:
For minimum bets I took over in NY and under in Anaheim.
Click to expand...

that's solid. Oak/LAA rarely go over the #. Today was one of those rare exceptions. saunders doesn't have the best of stats against the A's, but hes been throwing very well so far this season. also, both teams have the important pieces of their pen basically rested.
 
SportsNut said:
Always leary of backing Maddux in a hitters park first
Click to expand...


Maddux is a groundball pitcher. Doesn't that negate the fact that a stadium is a hitters or pitchers park? If a pitcher gets opponents to hit the ball down, then it does not matter the dimensions of the park, right?

I am asking not correcting because I may have just assumed this.
 
some random thoughts:

how is phil hughes -130 when he is struggling bad and 0-3 and put up the 7.85ERA? im not saying rogers is superman but boy are the tigers bats are heating up quick, maybe value on the tigers? A-rod out and posada on dl by the way, bullpen is hurt and fatiqued bad

Carmona has serious control issues, the two so called pitching stars of the tribe are not so well now, carmona is very inconsistent but i think i have weird gut feel he gets the job done or am i wrong? (sizemore is out and so is closer borrowski i think)

dont have feel much for the games tomorrow but boy there are tons of great matchups: sheets v marquis, cueto v pineiro and not to mention floyd v bonser

redsox are on a 5 game losing streak and have lester on the mound, im reading he gets em done tomorrow, maybe but i think halladay has great value, i know he struggles in fenway but he is tons better than lester, i dont think lester stays for five innings, my opinion only, by the way, is papi playing?

my plays tomorrow will be angels w/ saunders and dodgers w/ lowe and im leaning hard on linceum w/ that cheap price (rockies can hit but bullpen sucks badly)

GL Degenerates, have fun today
 
ATL @ WAS

for those who care, it is extremely windy here in DC today and its a cold wind at that. Kinda surprising given the last couple of warm days we've had here.

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="MLBblue11" style="border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(187, 195, 214); border-width: 1px 0px; padding: 5px 5px 5px 11px;" bgcolor="#f4f4f4">Event Day Forecast</td> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"><!-- event day fcst --> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="30%">
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Partly Cloudy</td> <td rowspan="2" bgcolor="#bbc3d6">
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</td> <td style="padding: 5px;" class="blkVerdanaText10" valign="top" width="70%"> Forecast : 62°F
Feels like: 62°F

Sunset: 7:59 PM

Probability of Precip:0 %
Spectator Index: 8
UV Index: Low</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="3">
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</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr><!-- wind direction --> <td bgcolor="#ffffff"> <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="MLBblue11" style="border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(187, 195, 214); border-width: 1px 0px; padding: 5px 5px 5px 11px;" bgcolor="#f4f4f4" width="50%">Wind Direction</td> <td class="MLBblue11" style="border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(187, 195, 214); border-width: 1px 0px; padding: 5px 0px 5px 21px;" bgcolor="#f4f4f4" width="50%">Wind Speed</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="padding: 15px 0px 0px;" align="center" width="50%"><!--insert wind direction swf --> <object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" codebase="http://fpdownload.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=5,0,0,0" id="wind_direction_enedemo" align="middle" height="88" width="88">


<embed src="http://image.weather.com/web/flash/wind_direction_sw.swf" quality="high" name="wind_direction_enedemo" allowscriptaccess="sameDomain" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" align="middle" height="88" width="88"> </object></td> <td style="padding: 15px 0px 0px;" align="center" width="50%">
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" class="blkVerdanaText10" style="padding: 15px 0px 0px;" align="center">Wind: From the NW at 15 mph</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
the wind is blowing out to right field and judging by the predictions it might be gusint up to 25 mph during game time.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/mlb/gameforecast/20003?eventid=242830&epc=be

and granted you don't just play a game on the weather (outside of Wrigley) but check this out

Braves Team Weather Graphs
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Team Weather Graphs
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<table style="background-image: url(http://image.weather.com/web/common/images/mlb/graph03.gif);" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="405"> <tbody><tr> <td class="blkVerdanaText10" align="left">15 mph</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="blkVerdanaText10" align="left">15 mph</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="195">
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Blue_Chip said:
[/font]

Maddux is a groundball pitcher. Doesn't that negate the fact that a stadium is a hitters or pitchers park? If a pitcher gets opponents to hit the ball down, then it does not matter the dimensions of the park, right?

I am asking not correcting because I may have just assumed this.
Click to expand...

Its a solid point I guess I just approach as it diminished velocity means your mistakes go further . His ratio may favor groundballs but he still allows flyballs even its below avg amount. Sort of like what we see with Mussina just about mistake he makes leaves the park . Now Maddux is much more comfortable pitching with less velocity thanks to his movement. Still I think alot of his problems in Zona are because the ball jumps out of that place . The only stat that could back up my opinion is look at the amount of Hrs he allowed when he was Cubbie 78 in 90 games yet after he left his numbers went down in pitchers parks like LAD and SD to 20 in 46 starts even though he was older.

He pitched at Chase and did well last year so its not like I would say he has no chance of succeeding but would be rather cautious of backing him in a smaller park. I think he allowed 3 Hrs in his 1st start this years despite pitching very well..

Just a general statement by Me I guess:shake:
 
SportsNut said:
I think he allowed 3 Hrs in his 1st start this years despite pitching very well..
Click to expand...

In his 1st start this season, the opponent went from seeing Peavy in Gm1 to Young in Gm2. So, by the 3rd game, the opponent had seen plenty of good fast pitches. Then, they got to see Maddux's pitches which were located decently but slower.

This could be a reach, but I am trying to find a justification. Ha!
 
whats up SN. wanted to stop by and say i love your threads as always. my plays are as follows:
NO -6 (NBA), Houston -2 , NY rangers, cubs and under 8.5 parlay. added plays.. tampa bay -108 & the nasty nats -103
 
Last edited:
Couple points in regards to the Yankee total and LAA total ...

First in regards to Kenny Rogers @ the Stadium I think all us Yankee fans know what an uncomfortable place it is for him. I just dont see how we can put much emphasis in games in 2004 ,2002 and two in 2000. The only time he recently oitched vs NY was the playoffs and he was magnificent . To which I would water down by saying he isnt the same pitcher after the injury , he isnt home where he has always been much better and NYY isnt on the road where they are vulnerable to LHP.

The internet makes researching easy in some ways..go back to 2004 ...already Posada and ARod are out which at this point are two of you biggest threats vs LHP. You have to realize Posada 301 vs LH in his career as opposed to 268 vs RHP. Then you have the minor differences in which I talk about how teams lineups change ( some get balanced and some unbalanced). Back then NYY was much more suited to face LHP then it is today.

Cairo played 2nd base . As great as Cano is you cant dismiss the fact Cairo a RHB hit 336 in 128abs vs LHs that season.

Sheffield was your #3 hitter and RF. In 140 abs 8hrs 30 rbi 314 avg. Again as good as Abreu is tough to argue Sheff isnt better especially back in those days and well he murders LHP and Abreu is LH.

Bernie Williams instead of say Johnny Damon. Granted Bernie just 265 but he was alsways great from the RH side . 9 Hrs 26 rbi in 166abs. Career splits show the difference huge power production from the RH side

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>AB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>2B</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>3B</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>RBI</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>AVG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>OBP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SLG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>OPS</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16>vs. Left</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1280</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2455</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>443</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>756</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>135</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>11</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>107</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>408</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>367</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>344</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>51</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>23</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.308</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.397</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.503</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.900</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16>vs. Right</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1959</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5414</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>923</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1580</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>314</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>44</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>180</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>849</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>702</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>868</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>96</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>64</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.292</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.373</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.466</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.839</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Think they hit 280 with 70hrs , 248 RBI (260runs)in 2004 vs LHP( 1500abs). So that really 5 spots were see a drastic reduction in production vs LHP ..3 key day to day players who were replaced by LHB and the absence of Posada and ARod. You probably can wash Duncan with Ruben Sierra . Giambi , Jeter and Matsui remain..so alot has changed...

Back in 2002 they werent as deep a lineup but you had 5 guys crush LHP Jeter , Bernie , Posada , Soriano and Giambi .
Bernie 354 4 Hr 22 rbi
Posada 326 5hr 25rbi
Soriano 316 8 Hr 19 rbi
Jeter 315 5hr 13 Rbi
Giambi 299 9hr 32 rbi

After that we got decent production from 4 RHB Coomer , White , Spencer and Mondesi who probably accounted for an OF spot and DH , Ventura played 3rd had good power numbers but 215 avg ...

So my basic point is while Rogers numbers were bad back the he was facing a different type Yankee lineup. One which was built on entirely on RH power and seemingly foaming at the mouth to see LHP.

Now granted its been just 5 games v LH SP so far for us and all have been away. The other factor is look at the LHs they faced John Bale , Brian Burres , Jeremy Sowers , CC Sabathia and Aaron Laffey whic basically 2 were calls up from AAA.

Heres how times have changed:(this is all official abs vs LH including relievers)
207 abs 18 runs 49 h 4 D 2 T 3 Hrs 17 Rbi 21 BB 38 Ks 1 Sb 2 CS

.237 AVG .318 OPS .319 SLG .636 OPS

-So right now they have about 1/8 actually 1/7.5 of theatbats they had in 2004 vs LH. So lets multiply by 7.5..adjusted numbers would be to compare 2008 pace to 2004

1553 abs 135 R 23 Hrs 128 Rbi vs 2004 .280BAA 260R 70Hrs 248RBI

Jeter 8-21
Damon 7-22
Matsui 5-18
Abreu 5-20
Melky 5-21 2hrs 4rbi
Ensberg 3-13
Molina 2-15
Cano 2-17
Giambi or Duncan at 1st 0-13 and 0-6

assume Shelley Duncan plays 1st
37-153 .242 3hrs 12 rbi 15bb 26 K todays lineup vs LH

Also not Melky Cabrera is blossoming into the palyer we thought he could be. More important then the 5Hrs is the fact he has 2 Hrs and 4 RBI vs LH in 21 abs because before this year he had 280 abs vs LHP with 2hrs and 18 rbi acroos his 1st 2 ML seasons....

So my basic point is understand how the Yankee lineup has changed greatly in the past few years and with Arod and Posada out theybasically lost there 2 biggest threats vs LHP until some of the platoon players stepup and / or some of the slumping LHB find there groove...Cano and Giambi specifically at least Giambi shows improvement of late..Arod crushed Rogers for 10-19 5hrs and even Giambi had 4hrs 10-23. One good sign is Jose Molina splits of 5-12 vs him. Jeter and Damon good splits vs him but again how do you weigh them when he has nt faced them in the reg season since 2004 ??

Now with Kenny Rogers he lost a good 5 MPH on his fastball since the 2006 playoff game from the shoulder injury (think it was his shoulder?). Granted you will see the terrible stats vs NYY but again he was playing against some great lineups who feasted on LHP. When he was sharp back in 2006 and the lineup had gone mainly LH he shut them down.

He pitched well vs KC in the opener , followed by 2 bad starts @ Boston and Chi two teams who are tough on LHP unlike NYY , pitched well @ Toronto who this year hasnt hit LH at all after murdering them last year , and then shocked me by getting smoked vs Texas. Truthfully I dont know what to make of him. The bulk of his problem is diminished velocity but coupled with inconsistent command which is unlike him (15 walks already), and inability to get RHB out. He has recorded 53 outs vs RHB but allowed 26 hits and 12 bbs to 3 K.

Truthfully very hard to get a feel for Kenny nowadays. he gets an extras day rest which I thought would be a benfit for him .Looked up the stats last year ..small glimpse

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>6.61</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>16.1</TD><TD align=right>24</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.338</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>4.20</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>40.2</TD><TD align=right>39</TD><TD align=right>22</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>20</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>21</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.250</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

So I think he is nothing more then 5 or 6 inning guy here but he has a chance to duplicate what he did vs TOR IMO. NYY RHB will be Jeter , Cabrera , Ensberg , Molina , Duncan (?) ...guys who have pop but are hitting mostly singles to this point.. plus we know the Stadium favors LHP thanks to death valley in LCF...

Outside of Miner the entire pen is 3.38 ERAs or lower , they have long men in Grilli and Lopez as well as 2 LH in Rapada and Seay....there pen is deep and pitching extremely well at the moment. Even Miner has turned it around last 4 appearances 7 inn 3h 1 r 1 bb 4 k

Now with Hughes please understand outside of the 2 cold weather starts in KC and Boston he hasnt pitched bad at all. He was solid at home which was his only home start vs Toronto , @ Balt after 5 innings he allowed 1 run and 4 hits when suddenly in the 6th inning every Balt player found a hole off him and the pen , how many times you see 7 or 8 hits all singles in 1 inning ? just an unfortunate inning which happens when your goingbad but generally a solid start , then he looked solid vs Chi till the rain came 2 inn 1 hit...as I said many times on this forum I have never seen a kid blow into his hands more then Hughes did @ KC and Boston. Sounds like an excuse but take it as a warning that he is 21 years old and may not have ever pitched in real cold or rainy weather before. The way hegets babied it wouldnt be suprising. So if he cant feel his hands then he wont be able to throw a good curveball and maybe his velocity and location suffer as well. Today the sun is out in NYC and while it wont be warm it wont be 40 degrees either.

He faced Det last year in Det and fared well 6 inn 4 h 5r / er 1bb 6 Ks but 3 Hrs. Which I think it should be 2 Hrs cause Granderson led the game off with an inside the parker meaning someone probably dove and missed. Not a real HR. Thames and Guillen connected off him. Obviously DET improved its lineup.

However while they have started to hit better alot of that came vs a texas team who was falling apart at the seams as entered DET after repeatedly blowing games in Boston. They faced Padilla off his best statrt and a guy notorious for picthing poorly away , Mendoza who isnt ML ready and Jennings who is coming back from surgery and wasnt that bad till he fell apart in the 5th , the Rangers pen was taxed by that series and we all remember the 11 run inning it allowed...LAA comes in with a better but not great trio of SP and allows just 11 runs in 3 games Santana , Mosely and Weaver. I said not great because Weaver was struggling mightily and Santana is still proving he can be effective on the road .

Away from home Det has not hit especially vs RHSP but they do now have Granderson back . So excluding the Texas series Det scored 11 at home in 3 games vs LAA , 10 in the 3 games @ Tor vs RH SP , 1 run vs Carmona in Cle , 17 runs in2 games at home vs Blackburn and Baker mostly off the Twinkies pen late though (16 of the 17 runs came bewteen the 6th and 8th innings) , 5 runs in 3 games @ Chicago and none vs DiceK excluded the Wakefield start cause although he is a RHP really he is a knuckleballer a different category IMO . So not much offense going on from what I see especially the road games vs RHP .

Maggs and Guillen doing most of the damage vs RH so far , Granderson solid in his limited atbats , Renteria a nice avg but alot of Ks to date , Pudge solid but then there is a dropoff from the rest of the lineup. So I am not sold that DET is hitting well and hitting well vs RHP...

I think both SP are in favorable position to succeed here and DET pen is really strong at the moment. The Yanks pen is stretched thin but I do expect 6 maybe even 7 innings from Hughes here which leaves some concern but I am not afraid of Hawkins < Britton or Albaladejo pitching an inning or two...Mo will able to close IMO...

So yeah I think there is some value in this total even at 10 runs but definetly in the 10.5 and 11 range....most important though is understand ing how the Yankee lineup has evlved into a LHB orientated lineup....vs LHP so far all away games 5-0 UNDER....check there run production vs LH last year as well not much different...

In regards to the Oak -LAA total real quickly both teams came into yesterdays meeting with some under streaks..Oak on the road and LAA at home ...part of the reason why I liked the over yesterday but with that in mind when streaks end usually we see a mini run of the opposite outcomes..which is exactly why this number got bet to 9after looking like it would hit 8 ....so probably a big play on that LAA-OAK over for me...Now with Thomas and Davis aboard vs LHP you have them both above 300 last year and Sweeney , Brown , Crosby above 333 this year. Thats 5 solid hitters vs LHP , factor in Suzuki will improve( but LH have given him problems ) along with Ellis (313 11 hrs 28 rbi in 07 vs LHP)and you have 7 tough outs and Barton is starting to hit finally...so really 3rd base is the weak link...if Murphy hits like he did last year vs LHP then it wont be..depth of lineups is what makes them tough and while the names arent big they have depth vs LHP..and while LAA stats are somewhat exaggerrated vs LH due to facing weak relievers they have the core of a team who should hit LHP well...Saunders good stats so far but Cle and Minny wont hit LHP well especially since they were slumping when they faced eachother , Sea twice and Mariners are a a streaky lineup then a Boston where he was okay but the threat was there to be a little worse.....alot of Saunders success has been shutting down LHB but as I pointed out there wont be many..as good as Smith has been the only team I see as really credible is Chicago and White Sox let some early opps slip away by having 2 runners picked off . To Smith credit he really finished strong the final few innings there and before that @ Tor as I said Jays just havent hit LHP yet...so a test for both SP and I suspect at least one will get smacked around today........

Long post but some stuff to store away regarding NYY...:shake::cheers:
 
Blue_Chip said:
In his 1st start this season, the opponent went from seeing Peavy in Gm1 to Young in Gm2. So, by the 3rd game, the opponent had seen plenty of good fast pitches. Then, they got to see Maddux's pitches which were located decently but slower.

This could be a reach, but I am trying to find a justification. Ha!
Click to expand...


Not a reach a valid point and can explain why he maybe allowed 3 hrs still I think showing his Wrigley days if he misses they will hit it out . Does that mean anything here ? I dont know but I cant see any value in taking SD unless your certain Maddux and the pen dont allow more then 1 run. Hamels is facing a lineup tailored made for his success and last year he went 7 inn 2 hr 1 run vs them and now they are worse offensively as of today.....I mean at home Peavy pitched his ass off made 1 mistake and still lost 2-1 despite the fact they had like 3 straight inning vs Webb with MOB...dont think they get that many chances here...

Also with Maddux there is reason his ERA was 2 runs higher in 06 on the road at 5 + and 1 run higher away last year...he loses the benefit of the pitchers park IMO...granted at times he will pitch well but I wouldnt have expectations in those situations...

Could SD really score even 4 runs off Hamels today ? Hard to see although they have hit better away ....judging on how badly SD has hit LHP so far not a favorable matchup which means price is useless as an indicator of value IMO....:shake:
 
jimbo1227 said:
whats up SN. wanted to stop by and say i love your threads as always. my plays are as follows:
NO -6 (NBA), Houston -2 , NY rangers, cubs and under 8.5 parlay. added plays.. tampa bay -108 & the nasty nats -103
Click to expand...


Thanks Jimbo , about to start zeroing in on some plays myself....pretty sure I like the Rockets and hard to argue against NO winning it seems like those games the dogs do well before the half and the favs well after the half...:cheers:GL as always
 
which means price is useless as an indicator of value IMO....

huh ? I don't understand this sentence.

Could SD really score even 4 runs off Hamels today ? Hard to see although they have hit better away ....judging on how badly SD has hit LHP so far not a favorable matchup which means price is useless as an indicator of value IMO....

full context just in case i am misunderstanding something.
 
Sorry VK I tend to ramble and the thoughts are flowing faster then I can type...

Here is my point in that game. What I am saying is PRICE really cant dictate value in this game even at the 200 level. Why ? First you Hamels in a position where he should be extremely successful as he faced SD last year and allowed 2 hits and 1 run in 7 innings. Fast forward this year and well SD is hitting worse at the moment then most expected but certainly then last year .

Sd has faced a fair share of LHSP already which has produced a 180 avg and 161 L10 games . Clearly LH present problems and here you get a premier LH SP at home coming of consecutive losses . Also SD is traveling EAST for the 1st time this year . Just this weekend at home vs Cain , Linecum , Big Unit , and Webb they scored 4 runs in those 4 games. Furthermore SD has lost 10 of 12 games

1.vs RJ 6 inn 3 h 1 r 2bb 7 K
2.vs RJ @ Zona 5.2 6 H 6runs 4 earned 3bb 6ks 1 Hr
- Now this outing isnt as bad as it appears for RJ or as good as it appear vs SD lineup. First 5 innings 1 hit and 1 run . Remember Unit is working his way back from surgery and still isnt 100% arm strength wise so he is limited to about 6 innings of work.

The top of the 6th where all the action happened.

<TABLE cellSpacing=5 cellPadding=0 width=560 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=yspscores>- A. Gonzalez fouled out to third </TD></TR><TR><TD class=yspscores>- K. Kouzmanoff doubled to deep right center </TD></TR><TR><TD class="yspdetailttl yspscored">- J. Bard safe at first on shortstop C. Burke's fielding error, K. Kouzmanoff scored </TD></TR><TR><TD class=yspscores>- K. Greene singled to left, J. Bard to second </TD></TR><TR><TD class="yspdetailttl yspscored">- J. Huber homered to deep left, J. Bard and K. Greene scored </TD></TR><TR><TD class=yspscores>- C. Crabbe doubled to left </TD></TR><TR><TD class=yspscores>- R. Wolf grounded out to second, C. Crabbe to third </TD></TR><TR><TD class="yspdetailttl yspscored">- S. Hairston singled to right, C. Crabbe scored

So with 2 out and 1 man on third you never what could have happened there. Could he possibly of beared down enough to get 1 more out ? Who knows but I think the error opened up the flood gates more so since he was nearing his limit. Whenhe left he threw 104 pitches so I am okay with assuming that 5 extras batters when he was at 90 pitches hurt him that day..as 90 pitches seems rasonable for about 6 innings of work from a guy building arm strength...

3.They LOST the 2-1 extra inning marathon vs COL. Which was starte by Francis who hasnt pitched all that well yet and went 7 scoreless allowing 3 hits

4. They lost 10-2 at home to Col and Redman this time . I think we both agree Redman is one of the hittable SP in the game at this point .
5 Inn 3 H 2 runs 3BB 2 Ks

5. They lost 1-0 @ SF vs Jonathan Sanchez . I think we agree that Sanche has certainly shown to be one of the brigher young LHP in the game so far in 2008.
6 Inn 3h 2bb 10ks

6. They lost 9-6 at home to Wandy Rodriguez think game 3 of the season. We know Rodriguez much better SP at home and while the game was lost by SD pen it had a so-so game vs Wandy. 5 Inn 8 H 4 runs/ earned 2 Hrs 1bb 6 K

So looking back and the game I weigh the least is the Rodriguez start. Why ? 1st start of the year probably not gonna have his best stuff and his was on the road where he is Ervin Santan like in the past.

23 games since the offense really died ...13 times 2 runs or less scored ( shutout 3 times 1run 6 times and 2 runs 4 times) , 3 times they scored 3 runs amd 1 time 4 runs which leaves just 6 games ...they have scored 6 , 7 and 8 (both twice) , 9 runs.

So even with there offensive struggles its basically safe to assume they struggle to crack 3 runs as they have failed to do so it but all of 7 of there past 23 games. They are 5-1 in those higher scoring games and really scored 2 runs and 4 runs in there 1st 2 games...

So the 5 games vs LH since Wandy faced them : ( and excluding the 6thinning vs Zona)
27inn 13 h 2 runs scored when facing a LHP outside of the 6th vs a tiring Randy Johnson and aided by a 1 out error andthe 1st time they saw a LH SP in Rodriguez.

Now we see the above and how poorly they have done vs LHP and we have Hamels at home after losing consecutive starts vs two very good lineups vs LHP which is the exact opposite here. We have a team who has been bad vs LHP to an extreme...So a great chance that Ham,els is successful in keeping them limited offensively just by there own stats its tough for them to crack 2 runs as they have not done so in 14 of 26 of there games this season. Now factor in Hamels and its extremely likely they dont crack 2 runs and high likely its on eof the games were they score none or 1 run..

So lets say they score 1 run in 8 innings today . How could any price present value ?

You need to not only be able to match what Hamels should do but feel comfortable the SD SP can exceed what Hamels is likely to do. Philly has a somking hot Chase Utley , the possible end of Ryan Howards slump but also 2 guys Jenkins and Pat the Bat with gaudy numbers off Maddux -

15/41 2Hrs 11 rbi .366 ( Burrell)
23/54 1Hr 7 Rbi . 426 ( Jenkins)

Even Taguchi has managed 6-15 against Maddux while Howard and Utley only have 7 atbats and 2 hits but 4 rbis..Werth is swinging well at that should be 5 or 6 tough outs for Maddux hard to believe he can keep them below 3 runs...

So basically I see this as a game based on situation where Philly probably wins 90% of the time...

The situations being SD offense in a funk to start the year with no signs of improvement , struggling to hit 180 vs LHP and now facing a premier LH SP who happens to be off two losses vs teams who excel vs LHP , coupled with there 1st trip to the East Coast strating a pitcher who is known for allowing contact something I dont want when opposing a dominant SP , who had a 4.50 ERA away last year and 5 ERA the previous year facing a very solid lineup with guys outside its core of Howard and Utley who have ridiculou splits on him....

I think anything less -250 is actually cheap for Philly ......

Granted I cant dismiss this either......

The Padres hit .265 on the road last year and scored 418 runs—the third-highest road total among National League teams. The Padres hit only .235 at home, where they scored a run less a game.

This season, it has been more of the same. The Padres are hitting .214 at Petco Park and are averaging 2.87 runs per game. They have hit seven homers in 15 home games. On the road, the Padres are hitting .240 and averaging 3.7 runs per game, and have hit eight homers in 11 games.

That is why Gonzalez was looking forward to visiting Philadelphia, Atlanta and Florida

Still 11 road games this year and 7 times they scored 3 or less ...so if itsgonna be an all or nothing type deal from them offensively when they face a COle Hamels I apt to expect a nothing type game...The only knock I have on Hamels here is 6 days rest and his numbers slip some compared to normal rest but also SD owns just a 173 BAA when facing him...Maddux also on 6 days rest has shown a drop himself the past 2 seasons but at times has been real sharp on extra rest. This year he was sharp when he faced LAD on extra rest...last year ERA dropped 0.15 but BAA went up 30 points..

So basically what I am saying is regardless of price if you cant rationalize how a team will score and probably wont score more then 2 runs its extremely tough to say there value is a play based on price . You have 200 favs who win and 200 favs who lose its all about understanding what makes it possible for then to win. Here I just dont seen an edge for them. Do you ?

:shake:
















</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Sorry vs LHP excluding the Arizona 6th inning and Wandy start

29 innings 13 h 4 runs across 5 starts vs RJ (twice ) , Sanchez , Francis and Redman..not really Hamel's class either....
 
Carlos Silva (R) Previous Starts vs. Cleveland

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="13%">Date</TD><TD width="12%">Opposition</TD><TD width="8%">Scr</TD><TD width="12%">Line</TD><TD width="5%">W/L</TD><TD width="5%">IP</TD><TD width="5%">H</TD><TD width="5%">R</TD><TD width="5%">ER</TD><TD width="4%">SO</TD><TD width="4%">BB</TD><TD width="4%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">PIT</TD><TD width="6%">P/IP</TD><TD width="6%">G/F</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>08/27/07</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) @ CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>3-8</TD><TD class=datacell>120/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>3.2</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>6 </TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>77 </TD><TD class=datacell>21.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.83</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>08/06/07</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>0-4</TD><TD class=datacell>-106/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>97 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.9 </TD><TD class=datacell>2.75</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/16/07</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) @ CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>1-7</TD><TD class=datacell>198/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>5 </TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>95 </TD><TD class=datacell>15.8 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.29</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/23/07</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>3-7</TD><TD class=datacell>100/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>103 </TD><TD class=datacell>20.6 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>09/16/06</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) @ CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>4-1</TD><TD class=datacell>146/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>90 </TD><TD class=datacell>12.9 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.38</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>08/16/06</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>7-2</TD><TD class=datacell>-107/10</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>94 </TD><TD class=datacell>18.8 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.75</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/21/06</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) @ CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>14-6</TD><TD class=datacell>164/9</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>4.1</TD><TD class=datacell>13</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>5 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>100 </TD><TD class=datacell>23.1 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.38</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/16/06</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>5-2</TD><TD class=datacell>110/10</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>89 </TD><TD class=datacell>14.8 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.33</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>09/11/05</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) @ CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>4-12</TD><TD class=datacell>151/8</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>1.0</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>4 </TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>18 </TD><TD class=datacell>18.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/31/05</TD><TD class=datacell>(MIN) CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>3-4</TD><TD class=datacell>-113/8</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>9</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>4 </TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>90 </TD><TD class=datacell>12.9 </TD><TD class=datacell>3.20</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Tough to back an UNDER or Silva really looking at how he fared at the JAKE.....only 1 good start & basically 4 bad ones there...Also dismissing Carmona's last start as I didnt realize he was on 7 days rest. In 2007 he was excellent on greater then 5 days rest but I take that to mean usuallygetting 1 extra day and pitching on 6 days....7 days can screw up a sinkerballer...2 seamer type pitcher...bounce back effort here..??Thinking so....:cheers:
 
Also : Jose Molina is not catching for NYY Chris Stewart is. Dont know much about him and its his 1st time I assume cacthing Hughes outside of ST. He was 2/7 lifetime with 2 doubles vs LHP which is better then his 186 vs RHP all in very limited atbats....big guy at 6'4...and even more suprising no Melky Cabrera which stings the lineup some but as always hurts our OF defense....
 
Wow there is a ton of great info there nut ... sorry to have made you do that ...lol. That wasn't my point.

I say price always dictates value but that is a sports betting philosiphical debate that we can have some other time.

just laughing hard right now but damn you made a good case for Hamels. lol.
 
I just thinks at times games are priced to attract value bettors and I always try to look at the big picture . Situations dictate value not price IMO....no matter how high you make a price it still doesnt change the situation...I know what you mean and I agree with strongly to a degree but this a deception game and you have to kinda read into what they are giving you at times...I guess what I am saying is why would there be value on a play when there might need to be attract action...?

Dont worry the hard part is typing that shit thats literally the crap that just floats through my mind...sometimes that type thing helps me strength my position and others it will make me see the holes in my arguement...

I have a bunch of crazy things going on ...alot of totals and a few parlays small risk decent reward the main on being NYM- Philly- CLE thinks 2 units gets me about 5units...

See how I start off got stuck rushing and was all over the place tring to get all must stuff in by 7 and missed the NBA...:shake::cheers:
 
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