Thanks Killa , Big Al and MacDamn...GL!
Good nite.....finished about +40 units...in the NBA..(plus 2nd H..plays??)
Totals
Under 200.5 -110 (7x) Atlanta (WIN) +7.00
-Reasoning behind this is somewhat logical somewhat implied. First after there last setback Wiz Guard DeShawn Stevenson said the team needed to make a better effort on defense. So thats a starting point for me. Second point is since Childress went down the Hawks have not scored 100 pts and have gone under in 3 of 4 games. Atl had topped 100 in 4 straight prior and 5 of 6. So his loss has hurt the offense IMO as the Hawks are young with questionable depth. The third point is how is ATL a 200 total when teams like Det & Cle came into Wash at 197? I mean think of it like this when ATL traveled to those destinations the totals were in the high 180's so why would a lesser offensive club(ATL) get a higher total. The simple answer is look at what Wash has done at home offensively. My response is its more about what they have done at home offensively in correleation to there totals. For some reason Wash was simply IMO getting low totals for a team was almost automatic to crack a 100pts at home...this is the saturation point IMO...where the total gets a little ahead of logic. They have been under 200 twice (Cle & Det) , right on 200 twice (NJN & Bos) and 202 and 208 to Indiana and Milw...
If you look at history bewteen the two Wiz have won all 5 and scored bewteen 94 and 104(94 , 98 ,102,103,104) while holding Atl to 85 , 72 , 99 , 101 and 84...with injuries I would once again expect to see ATL more in that 85 range rather then the 100 range. Last year ATL could not score in the paint and this year they tend to me real incosnistent from three...so that leaves the FT line and again real incosnsitent. Was is desperate for a win but get ATL and Char at home this week to correct the sinking ship. If Wiz werent cold I would laythe points but just gonna wait till half...have this about -8 ...
Under 191 -110 Toronto (4x) (WIN) +4.00
-You have NO missing 2 key offensive players in Peja and West. The past 3 games they have scored 83 , 79 and 73 while continuing to play solid defense. Tor who started the season off with a run and gun approach has taken TJ Ford's mentality and buckled down defensively lately IMO(scoring low 90's as well). Allowing 83 ,87 and 97 ppg past 3. There shots per game are also down from the 85 to 90 range to 85 , 79 , 70 , 74 last 4. Past 3 games teams are 105 /252 thats 41.67 % they have also stopped putting teams on the line 20 , 21 and 12 attempts last 3.
Over 195 -105 Scaramento (3x)Loss -3.15
- Artest returns which concerns me some as is he is a defensive whiz and Kaman & Cassell are out I believe for LAC. Kings have scored 105 or more in 5 of 7 (101 & 99 the other 2 ) and Kings have allowed at least a 100 in all road games. Kings ended a streak of allowing 100+ for 6 straight by holding Blazers to 85. Which I attribute to being down so much and taking bad shots with below average jump shooters. LAC puts opponents on the line 33 times a game and Sca is about 82% FT shooters. Outside of there last road game Clippers have scored at least 90 ppg on the road. I actually expect a close game here...
Over 187 -110 Pacers (5x) WIN +5.00 this would have been my biggest bet if it hadnt been pulled off the board with O'Neal being listed as questionable..
-Alot bit of a strange play here. If you look at Portland lately they are playing a more up and down game. Which has resulted in alot higher scores . They have seen opponents shot nearly 51 % against them at home which could spell trouble if Indiana gets alot of wide open 3 's. Indiana on the other hand puts teams on the line nearly 30 times a game which Portland is sound from the line. Pacers allow 46% and nearly 40% from three..In 7 of 9 Blazers have allowed 100 pts with one game falling at 97. Last 5 games Indiana on the road has been awful from the floor but this should be the opponent to end that. Blazers have scored at least 96 past 4 home games and only fell below vs sound defensive teams like NO and Minny(92 &88)..
Sides
Raptors +4.5 -105 (8x) ML +170 (2x) (WINs) +11.40
-As I mentioned Hornets are playing w/o 2 key players and have slumped past 3 games. Raptors are making an effort on defense and have played well ATS despite not winning on the road. Tor ATS 27-13 -3 last 43 away.
Trends
Raptors are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in New Orleans.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in New Orleans.
Raptors are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Wolves +9 -110 (10x) ML +360 (1/2x) (WIN) +9.50
-First Minny is playing 4th in 5 nites and I have said that I feel books appear to be inflating these situational spreads. Wolves have already covered @ LAL in this spot earlier this season. Raod team is 8-2 SU in this series and Wolves have covered 4 straight and won 3 of 4 SU . Houston has struggled at home as favorite and I see this as a game that should be closer to -5 or -6. Minny didnt extend there players last nite so fatigue shouldnt be a factor. Think about like this Rockets were -10 versus the Knicks and we know minny is a stepup from them...Houston is rested but has been allowing there opponents to comeback in the 4th quarters . Basically they have NOT been putting together complete games. Rockets 9-23 ATS last 32 as home favs. Dog is 6-0 straight up last 6!!!
Bobcats +7.5 -110 (3x) ML +290(1/2x) (WINs) +4.45
-Fading a slumping NJ teamoff a West Coast trip. Charlotte has alot of big bodies and with Cliff Robinson out I think they can make it interesting....
Lakers ML -310 , Nuggetts -445 and Wiz -270 (3xparlay)LOSS -3
just think Milwaukee is a mess with losing Villaneuva...
Leans -
Washington -6.5
Bulls -7
Denver -9
LAC +5
(could still play any of the last three)
Total leans
Under 187.5 NJN
Over 199 +102 NYK (might still play)
Under 203.5 Denver (might still play)
Team Total Best Bet(+5.00)
Under 97.5 -112 Memphis (3x) (WIN)
Under 97.5 -113 Toronto (2x) 1st H (WIN)
NCAAB (5-2 +1.50units)
Over 141 -105 Rhode Island (5x)WIN
Illinois -200 ML (5x) -4 -110 (4x)LOSSes)
Under 133 -110 Duke (3x)WIN
Over 70 -108 UCLA 1st H (3x)WIN
Over 77.5 -108 Zona 1st H(3x) WIN
Nwestern +107 (3x) WIN
FSU +10.5 -111 (1x)Loss
