Daily Upset Alert: NBA Underdog Picks
Boston Celtics vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET (TNT) at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon
Boston’s Improving Defense
Defense is a big reason why Boston is a live underdog today.
Boston has played six games in April so far.
In five of them, the Celtics allowed 106 points or fewer.
The recent three-game average of their scoring defense is 107.3 points per game allowed.
If 107.3 were a season-long statistic, it would position the Celtic scoring defense as fourth-best in the NBA.
One thing about this recent three-game average is that it accounts for the one lapse in Boston’s defense, which came against a Minnesota team that clearly did not have Boston’s full attention.
Otherwise, the Celtic defense has been well-tested and well-proven, for example going to and holding Denver to 87 points in their last game on Sunday.
87 points is particularly low for a Nugget offense that ranks sixth in averaging 114.9 points per game.
Portland’s Struggling Offense
In terms of scoring offense, Portland ranks right behind Denver.
Although, the Trail Blazers’ scoring offense has sunk lately as it struggles to handle the NBA’s better scoring defenses.
They mustered, for example, 98 points in their last game — a loss against Miami — shortly after scoring only 103 in a blowout loss at Utah.
Portland’s struggling offense has led to a series of blowout losses to teams not named Detroit or Oklahoma City.
In other words, the Trail Blazers are playing well against teams that have over 10 more losses than wins.
But they haven’t beaten an opponent with a winning record since March 12.
Instead, they’ve lost their last four in a row to winning teams, with the closest loss coming by a solid nine points.
Boston’s Ball-Screen Defense
The personnel for Boston are well-known for their ability guarding the perimeter. This is especially true of Marcus Smart, who is a multi-time All-Defensive First-Teamer.
Perimeter defense is a crucial asset against a Portland offense that attempts the second-most three-pointers per game.
But what I want to focus on is the Celtics’ ball-screen defense because Celtic players are not as well-known for their ball-screen defense, although they should be.
Boston’s wings and guards — particularly Smart, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown switch on ball-screens in order to keep the opposing ball-handler in front of them.
When a Celtic big has his opponent set a screen, Boston will employ “ice” coverage in order to keep the opposing ball-handler from using the screen and to keep the ball away from the middle, instead confining him to the nearest sideline.
If a ball-screen happens in the middle of the court, the Celtics will compel the opposing ball-handler to dribble with his off hand.
One aspect of their ball-screen defense is their ability to speed up opposing ball-handlers and to force contested shots.
Celtic defenders force a lot of turnovers in their ball-screen coverage by making opposing ball-handlers uncomfortable.
With the techniques that they employ, the Celtics own the sixth-best defense against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler based on opposing PPP.
Boston’s solid ball-screen defense is important to note against a Portland offense that relies heavily on employing ball-screens for the ball-handler.
Boston Offense vs. Portland Defense
If you don’t like Portland offensively, then it’s impossible to like Portland at all.
The Trail Blazers are dependent on their offense for winning. They cannot rely on a defense that ranks 26th in averaging 114.9 points per game allowed.
One respect in which their defense is vulnerable in their rim protection.
They don’t do a good job of preventing shot attempts at the basket. Within five feet of the basket, they allow the ninth-highest field goal percentage.
With Brown and Tatum in particular, Boston has guys who ably drive inside and are consistently efficient finishers at the basket.
Best Bet: Celtics +1 at -108 with Heritage
Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at PHX Arena in Phoenix, Arizona
Miami’s Defense
Miami’s aptitude on defense gives the team added value as a road underdog.
The adage “defense travels” applies to a Heat defense that allows 105 points per game on the road.
Individually, the Heat defense has stacked up high-quality defenders who possess strong defensive ratings like Andre Iguodala and Jimmy Butler.
Heat Defense vs. Phoenix Offense
Offensively, Phoenix wants to be methodical and play a slow-paced game in order to establish its rhythm.
But the Heat defense excels at taking an opposing offense out of its comfort zone.
With versatile players, Miami likes to switch on ball-screens. In doing so, Heat defenders deter the drive and instead keep their man in front of them.
They will sometimes transition from a switch to a double-team where they swarm the opposing ball-handler and more likely force a turnover after isolating him well behind the arc.
Moreover, Miami speeds teams up by employing a full-court press.
A full-court press delays an opposing offense in its attempt to enter into its half-court offense.
In causing this delay, the Heat defense forces the opposing offense to make rash decisions because the offense has less time available in the shot clock.
So Miami’s defense will keep a preferably slow-paced Phoenix offense from finding its rhythm.
Plus, Heat defenders excel at limiting shot attempts in the spaces where the Suns are more reliant on for their scoring.
Sometimes, Miami’s gambles on defense can make it vulnerable to opposing three-point attacks.
But a Sun offense that ranks average in three-pointers made and attempted per game isn’t built to take advantage.
Heat Offense vs. Sun Defense
Offensively, Miami doesn’t need to do too much when it stifles opponents defensively.
But the balance in Miami’s offense — where six different players average at least 13 points per game — give the offense a higher floor.
One aspect of Phoenix’s defense that has been more vulnerable lately is its perimeter defense.
The Suns have struggled to stop teams that want to shoot threes from attempting and making a high number of them. One recent example is Houston.
So Duncan Robinson can hurt the Suns. He’s converting half of his three-pointers so far in April while often making four or more threes.
Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, and Tyler Herro are high-volume shooters whose efficiency will hurt Phoenix today, Robinson by coming off screens and the latter two especially by creating their own shot.
Best Bet: Heat +4 at -108 with Heritage
Boston Celtics vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET (TNT) at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon
Boston’s Improving Defense
Defense is a big reason why Boston is a live underdog today.
Boston has played six games in April so far.
In five of them, the Celtics allowed 106 points or fewer.
The recent three-game average of their scoring defense is 107.3 points per game allowed.
If 107.3 were a season-long statistic, it would position the Celtic scoring defense as fourth-best in the NBA.
One thing about this recent three-game average is that it accounts for the one lapse in Boston’s defense, which came against a Minnesota team that clearly did not have Boston’s full attention.
Otherwise, the Celtic defense has been well-tested and well-proven, for example going to and holding Denver to 87 points in their last game on Sunday.
87 points is particularly low for a Nugget offense that ranks sixth in averaging 114.9 points per game.
Portland’s Struggling Offense
In terms of scoring offense, Portland ranks right behind Denver.
Although, the Trail Blazers’ scoring offense has sunk lately as it struggles to handle the NBA’s better scoring defenses.
They mustered, for example, 98 points in their last game — a loss against Miami — shortly after scoring only 103 in a blowout loss at Utah.
Portland’s struggling offense has led to a series of blowout losses to teams not named Detroit or Oklahoma City.
In other words, the Trail Blazers are playing well against teams that have over 10 more losses than wins.
But they haven’t beaten an opponent with a winning record since March 12.
Instead, they’ve lost their last four in a row to winning teams, with the closest loss coming by a solid nine points.
Boston’s Ball-Screen Defense
The personnel for Boston are well-known for their ability guarding the perimeter. This is especially true of Marcus Smart, who is a multi-time All-Defensive First-Teamer.
Perimeter defense is a crucial asset against a Portland offense that attempts the second-most three-pointers per game.
But what I want to focus on is the Celtics’ ball-screen defense because Celtic players are not as well-known for their ball-screen defense, although they should be.
Boston’s wings and guards — particularly Smart, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown switch on ball-screens in order to keep the opposing ball-handler in front of them.
When a Celtic big has his opponent set a screen, Boston will employ “ice” coverage in order to keep the opposing ball-handler from using the screen and to keep the ball away from the middle, instead confining him to the nearest sideline.
If a ball-screen happens in the middle of the court, the Celtics will compel the opposing ball-handler to dribble with his off hand.
One aspect of their ball-screen defense is their ability to speed up opposing ball-handlers and to force contested shots.
Celtic defenders force a lot of turnovers in their ball-screen coverage by making opposing ball-handlers uncomfortable.
With the techniques that they employ, the Celtics own the sixth-best defense against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler based on opposing PPP.
Boston’s solid ball-screen defense is important to note against a Portland offense that relies heavily on employing ball-screens for the ball-handler.
Boston Offense vs. Portland Defense
If you don’t like Portland offensively, then it’s impossible to like Portland at all.
The Trail Blazers are dependent on their offense for winning. They cannot rely on a defense that ranks 26th in averaging 114.9 points per game allowed.
One respect in which their defense is vulnerable in their rim protection.
They don’t do a good job of preventing shot attempts at the basket. Within five feet of the basket, they allow the ninth-highest field goal percentage.
With Brown and Tatum in particular, Boston has guys who ably drive inside and are consistently efficient finishers at the basket.
Best Bet: Celtics +1 at -108 with Heritage
Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at PHX Arena in Phoenix, Arizona
Miami’s Defense
Miami’s aptitude on defense gives the team added value as a road underdog.
The adage “defense travels” applies to a Heat defense that allows 105 points per game on the road.
Individually, the Heat defense has stacked up high-quality defenders who possess strong defensive ratings like Andre Iguodala and Jimmy Butler.
Heat Defense vs. Phoenix Offense
Offensively, Phoenix wants to be methodical and play a slow-paced game in order to establish its rhythm.
But the Heat defense excels at taking an opposing offense out of its comfort zone.
With versatile players, Miami likes to switch on ball-screens. In doing so, Heat defenders deter the drive and instead keep their man in front of them.
They will sometimes transition from a switch to a double-team where they swarm the opposing ball-handler and more likely force a turnover after isolating him well behind the arc.
Moreover, Miami speeds teams up by employing a full-court press.
A full-court press delays an opposing offense in its attempt to enter into its half-court offense.
In causing this delay, the Heat defense forces the opposing offense to make rash decisions because the offense has less time available in the shot clock.
So Miami’s defense will keep a preferably slow-paced Phoenix offense from finding its rhythm.
Plus, Heat defenders excel at limiting shot attempts in the spaces where the Suns are more reliant on for their scoring.
Sometimes, Miami’s gambles on defense can make it vulnerable to opposing three-point attacks.
But a Sun offense that ranks average in three-pointers made and attempted per game isn’t built to take advantage.
Heat Offense vs. Sun Defense
Offensively, Miami doesn’t need to do too much when it stifles opponents defensively.
But the balance in Miami’s offense — where six different players average at least 13 points per game — give the offense a higher floor.
One aspect of Phoenix’s defense that has been more vulnerable lately is its perimeter defense.
The Suns have struggled to stop teams that want to shoot threes from attempting and making a high number of them. One recent example is Houston.
So Duncan Robinson can hurt the Suns. He’s converting half of his three-pointers so far in April while often making four or more threes.
Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, and Tyler Herro are high-volume shooters whose efficiency will hurt Phoenix today, Robinson by coming off screens and the latter two especially by creating their own shot.
Best Bet: Heat +4 at -108 with Heritage
