Daily Upset Alert: NBA Underdog Picks
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Barclays Center in Brooklyn
The Odds
Oddsmakers opened Brooklyn as 2.5-point underdogs, even though they are playing at home tonight. Is this right?
For Game 1, the Nets were four-point favorites at home. Back then, however, they were completely healthy.
In Game 1, James Harden was injured, although the Nets won anyways, despite unexpectedly having to play the entire game without arguably their most important player.
Because Harden's hamstring injury ruled him out for Game 2, the Nets, still at home, opened as two-point favorites. They won that game by 39 points.
They did, in Game 2, still have Kyrie Irving. Irving, however, has been ruled out for Game 5, alongside Harden, after suffering an injury in Game 4.
The math seems odd to me: the Nets were favored by two points fewer in Game 2 than in Game 1. So why should the spread shift 2.5 more points in Milwaukee's favor for Game 5 than it did for Game 2?
Is Irving more important than Harden, such that his absence should merit a stronger shift in the spread? This can't be the case because, when Harden arrived in Brooklyn, Irving agreed to hand the offense over to Harden.
Harden is the team's leading assist-getter by far. While all three stars can get their own basket, he is most responsible for making the offense run.
Given these line movements, it seems plain to me that the most recent shift in the opening spread expresses a reaction in public perception to the way that the series has seemed to shift.
Brookyln seemed like it was going to run away with this series after going up 2-0. Now that the series is tied 2-2, public perception has tilted towards Milwaukee.
Brooklyn's Positive Situation
There is betting value in Brookyln tonight because public perception is underpinning an overreaction in the odds after the previous two games.
While public perception therefore expects a strong Milwaukee effort tonight, a key trend establishes that it's actually the Nets who enjoy a strong situation tonight.
Following two straight playoff games in which they failed to come within 19 points of their season average, teams are 19-3 ATS.
After mustering 83 points without Harden in Game 3 and 96 without Harden and mostly without Irving in Game 4, the Nets will experience progression in their scoring.
Three-Point Shooting
One area in which Brooklyn's offense will experience statistical progression is in its three-point shooting.
In games 3 and 4, the Nets generated 11 open three-point attempts and 12 wide-open three-point attempts.
Despite getting good looks at the basket, they converted 31.8-percent of their open three-point attempts and 20.8-percent of their wide open three-point attempts.
For comparison's sake, Brooklyn converted 38 percent of its open three-point attempts during the regular season and 42.6 percent of its wide-open ones.
So Brookyln lost Games 3 and 4 largely because of many rim-outs and other failed opportunities to convert open or wide-open shot attempts.
One can only expect the Nets to stop underachieving in their open-shot conversion rates, especially now that they return home.
A specific candidate to improve his performance from behind the arc is sharpshooter Joe Harris.
Harris shot 5-of-9 from deep in Game 1 and 3-of-7 from three in Game 2. Both of those solid efforts came at home.
These two strong shooting performances are consistent with what Harris has achieved at home throughout the entire season.
During the regular season, Harris shot a ridiculous 49.8-percent from deep in Brooklyn.
Three-point shooting is a great way for Brooklyn to attack the Buck defense because opposing three-point shooting has, throughout the entire season, constituted a significant source of stress for Milwaukee.
Looking at both the regular season and playoffs together, Milwaukee ranks last-place in limiting opposing three-pointers made per game.
Defensively, Milwaukee is plagued by its stubborn and hapless adherence to conservative ball-screen principles.
In its drop coverage, Milwaukee positions its big man closer to the basket. The Bucks also like to send extra help defense inside in order to protect the paint.
With slow rotations especially away from home, the Bucks consistently struggle to deter opposing teams and opposing top shooters from amassing good looks at the basket.
Harris is just one guy who has taken advantage of Milwaukee's defensive weakness and who will again take advantage.
Jeff Green is a versatile big who is likewise an efficient shooter. Brooklyn benefits from his return to the lineup. Obviously, superstar Kevin Durant is still on the court.
Brooklyn's Defense
One reason why every game in this series is flying "under" the posted total is the Nets' surprisingly stout defense.
They have stepped up their efforts in the postseason, including this series. They've limited Milwaukee to 107 points or fewer in every game in this series.
For comparison's sake, Milwaukee averages 118.9 points per game this season. So, when they face Brooklyn, the Bucks consistently perform worse offensively than they usually do.
I've talked before about the strong defensive ratings of Brooklyn's big men, who compel the Bucks to attempt more mid-range shots than they want to.
Jeff Green further helps the Net defense because of his versatility, which allows him to switch on ball screens in order to stay in front of Milwaukee's ball-handler.
He is one more weapon who will help to keep limiting essentially every Buck scorer besides Giannis.
Best Bet: Nets +4.5 at -108 with Heritage
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Tuesday, June 15, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Barclays Center in Brooklyn
The Odds
Oddsmakers opened Brooklyn as 2.5-point underdogs, even though they are playing at home tonight. Is this right?
For Game 1, the Nets were four-point favorites at home. Back then, however, they were completely healthy.
In Game 1, James Harden was injured, although the Nets won anyways, despite unexpectedly having to play the entire game without arguably their most important player.
Because Harden's hamstring injury ruled him out for Game 2, the Nets, still at home, opened as two-point favorites. They won that game by 39 points.
They did, in Game 2, still have Kyrie Irving. Irving, however, has been ruled out for Game 5, alongside Harden, after suffering an injury in Game 4.
The math seems odd to me: the Nets were favored by two points fewer in Game 2 than in Game 1. So why should the spread shift 2.5 more points in Milwaukee's favor for Game 5 than it did for Game 2?
Is Irving more important than Harden, such that his absence should merit a stronger shift in the spread? This can't be the case because, when Harden arrived in Brooklyn, Irving agreed to hand the offense over to Harden.
Harden is the team's leading assist-getter by far. While all three stars can get their own basket, he is most responsible for making the offense run.
Given these line movements, it seems plain to me that the most recent shift in the opening spread expresses a reaction in public perception to the way that the series has seemed to shift.
Brookyln seemed like it was going to run away with this series after going up 2-0. Now that the series is tied 2-2, public perception has tilted towards Milwaukee.
Brooklyn's Positive Situation
There is betting value in Brookyln tonight because public perception is underpinning an overreaction in the odds after the previous two games.
While public perception therefore expects a strong Milwaukee effort tonight, a key trend establishes that it's actually the Nets who enjoy a strong situation tonight.
Following two straight playoff games in which they failed to come within 19 points of their season average, teams are 19-3 ATS.
After mustering 83 points without Harden in Game 3 and 96 without Harden and mostly without Irving in Game 4, the Nets will experience progression in their scoring.
Three-Point Shooting
One area in which Brooklyn's offense will experience statistical progression is in its three-point shooting.
In games 3 and 4, the Nets generated 11 open three-point attempts and 12 wide-open three-point attempts.
Despite getting good looks at the basket, they converted 31.8-percent of their open three-point attempts and 20.8-percent of their wide open three-point attempts.
For comparison's sake, Brooklyn converted 38 percent of its open three-point attempts during the regular season and 42.6 percent of its wide-open ones.
So Brookyln lost Games 3 and 4 largely because of many rim-outs and other failed opportunities to convert open or wide-open shot attempts.
One can only expect the Nets to stop underachieving in their open-shot conversion rates, especially now that they return home.
A specific candidate to improve his performance from behind the arc is sharpshooter Joe Harris.
Harris shot 5-of-9 from deep in Game 1 and 3-of-7 from three in Game 2. Both of those solid efforts came at home.
These two strong shooting performances are consistent with what Harris has achieved at home throughout the entire season.
During the regular season, Harris shot a ridiculous 49.8-percent from deep in Brooklyn.
Three-point shooting is a great way for Brooklyn to attack the Buck defense because opposing three-point shooting has, throughout the entire season, constituted a significant source of stress for Milwaukee.
Looking at both the regular season and playoffs together, Milwaukee ranks last-place in limiting opposing three-pointers made per game.
Defensively, Milwaukee is plagued by its stubborn and hapless adherence to conservative ball-screen principles.
In its drop coverage, Milwaukee positions its big man closer to the basket. The Bucks also like to send extra help defense inside in order to protect the paint.
With slow rotations especially away from home, the Bucks consistently struggle to deter opposing teams and opposing top shooters from amassing good looks at the basket.
Harris is just one guy who has taken advantage of Milwaukee's defensive weakness and who will again take advantage.
Jeff Green is a versatile big who is likewise an efficient shooter. Brooklyn benefits from his return to the lineup. Obviously, superstar Kevin Durant is still on the court.
Brooklyn's Defense
One reason why every game in this series is flying "under" the posted total is the Nets' surprisingly stout defense.
They have stepped up their efforts in the postseason, including this series. They've limited Milwaukee to 107 points or fewer in every game in this series.
For comparison's sake, Milwaukee averages 118.9 points per game this season. So, when they face Brooklyn, the Bucks consistently perform worse offensively than they usually do.
I've talked before about the strong defensive ratings of Brooklyn's big men, who compel the Bucks to attempt more mid-range shots than they want to.
Jeff Green further helps the Net defense because of his versatility, which allows him to switch on ball screens in order to stay in front of Milwaukee's ball-handler.
He is one more weapon who will help to keep limiting essentially every Buck scorer besides Giannis.
Best Bet: Nets +4.5 at -108 with Heritage
