Daily Upset Alert: NBA Underdog Picks
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets
Tuesday, June 1, 2021 at Ball Arena in Denver
Jusuf Nurkic’s defense
Game 2 was the one game that Portland lost by a clear margin — 128-109.
This game was anomalous — it’s the only one that developed remotely in this fashion.
It should be clear why this game was anomalous: the anomaly was a product of Trail Blazer center Jusuf Nurkic being in foul trouble and accruing only 25 minutes before fouling out.
Without Nurkic on the floor, the Denver offense is able to appear prolific.
It’s beneficial to look at various stretches of Game 3 in order to conceptualize his importance.
When Denver mustered nine points in its first 10 possessions, Nurkic was on the floor, contesting shot attempts at the basket, deterring players from driving inside, and so forth.
The Nuggets then had an easier time on offense when Nurkic was replaced by Enes Kanter.
Including Game 3, where Nurkic also fouled out, but was able to amass more minutes, the Trail Blazers are allowing 7.1 fewer points per 100 possessions.
By this measure, Nurkic's presence or absence creates a comparatively tremendous impact. His strong defensive rating this series also testifies to his defensive quality.
There is also a big drop off in terms of presence in another sense of the word.
When Nurkic leaves the game, one guy who defends Jokic is Robert Covington. Covington is four inches shorter and 81 pounds smaller than Nurkic.
But size isn’t the only explanation for Nurkic’s superior defense. He simply needs to avoid foul trouble and remain on the floor.
Attacking Inside With Nurkic
Denver’s rim protection is uniquely bad.
In the regular season, the Nuggets allowed the highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
On offense, Nurkic simply needs to be more aggressive.
Despite fouling out and so allowing Denver’s offense to be significantly more effective, he was able to keep Portland close partly by nearly doubling his point total from Game 2.
Primarily, he attacked Jokic and the Nugget interior defense.
His ability to play more minutes in that game (Game 3) also allowed Portland to come very close to beating Denver, despite the Nuggets overachieving wildly from behind the arc — they converted over 50 percent of their three-point attempts.
Damian Lillard
Superstar Damian Lillard is unstoppable.
In the first three games of the series, he amassed 34, 42, and 37 points.
Lillard likes operating in the pick-and-roll. He helps explain why the Trail Blazers are producing the second-most PPP (points per possession) on pick-and-roll for the ball-handler plays in the postseason.
But Portland also won Game 4 despite his lack of scoring.
He draws so much attention to himself — because of the relentless threat that he poses as a scorer — that he is able to locate teammates.
Just saying that Lillard locates teammates is misleading and simplistic, though. He makes teammates be open by moving in order to manipulate the defense. Then, he finds them.
The whole start-to-finish of the assists that he accrues is a product of his high-level court vision.
Support For Lillard
Besides Nurkic, Lillard finds considerable offensive support from CJ McCollum.
McCollum, in the regular season, was Portland’s second-leading scorer with 23.1 points per game.
He is a high-volume and efficient three-point shooter. From behind the arc, he complements the scoring prowess of guys like Nurkic, who are more likely to attack inside.
McCollum is another reason why Portland’s PPP in the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type is so high.
Denver’s Supporting Cast
For Portland, Lillard is the guy who can score at will and score on his own.
With his vision, his handles, and his overall skillset on offense, he ranks only behind Jayson Tatum and James Harden in points per game in isolation plays in both the regular season and the postseason.
One reason why I don’t like the Nuggets’ offense is that they lack consistent scorers who can support Jokic.
They need this support for Jokic because of the way Portland has adjusted on defense.
On defense, Portland is hitting Jokic with more double teams. The Trail Blazers are taking away driving and passing lanes that had previously been available to Jokic and to fellow offensive threat Michael Porter Jr.
As a result of these adjustments, Jokic and Porter Jr. combined for only 19 points and one assist in Game 4.
Denver mustered 95 points against Portland’s supposedly hapless defense.
With star Jamal Murray injured, the Nuggets need someone else to step up.
Normally, this additional guy would be Will Barton, Denver’s fourth-leading scorer in the regular season after Jokic, Porter Jr., and Murray.
But Barton is still injured.
The Verdict
With Nurkic plus the tactical reinforcement in its interior defense, Portland has the answers to limit Denver’s Jokic- and Porter-led inside attack.
On offense, Nurkic can help exploit the Nuggets’ porous rim protection. Lillard, a top-level isolation and pick-and-roll scorer, will amass points by himself and by finding teammates.
McCollum provides another boost to the Portland offense, a demonstrably consistent element of scoring support that Denver lacks without Murray or Barton.
Best Bet: Trail Blazers +2 at -108 with Heritage
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets
Tuesday, June 1, 2021 at Ball Arena in Denver
Jusuf Nurkic’s defense
Game 2 was the one game that Portland lost by a clear margin — 128-109.
This game was anomalous — it’s the only one that developed remotely in this fashion.
It should be clear why this game was anomalous: the anomaly was a product of Trail Blazer center Jusuf Nurkic being in foul trouble and accruing only 25 minutes before fouling out.
Without Nurkic on the floor, the Denver offense is able to appear prolific.
It’s beneficial to look at various stretches of Game 3 in order to conceptualize his importance.
When Denver mustered nine points in its first 10 possessions, Nurkic was on the floor, contesting shot attempts at the basket, deterring players from driving inside, and so forth.
The Nuggets then had an easier time on offense when Nurkic was replaced by Enes Kanter.
Including Game 3, where Nurkic also fouled out, but was able to amass more minutes, the Trail Blazers are allowing 7.1 fewer points per 100 possessions.
By this measure, Nurkic's presence or absence creates a comparatively tremendous impact. His strong defensive rating this series also testifies to his defensive quality.
There is also a big drop off in terms of presence in another sense of the word.
When Nurkic leaves the game, one guy who defends Jokic is Robert Covington. Covington is four inches shorter and 81 pounds smaller than Nurkic.
But size isn’t the only explanation for Nurkic’s superior defense. He simply needs to avoid foul trouble and remain on the floor.
Attacking Inside With Nurkic
Denver’s rim protection is uniquely bad.
In the regular season, the Nuggets allowed the highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
On offense, Nurkic simply needs to be more aggressive.
Despite fouling out and so allowing Denver’s offense to be significantly more effective, he was able to keep Portland close partly by nearly doubling his point total from Game 2.
Primarily, he attacked Jokic and the Nugget interior defense.
His ability to play more minutes in that game (Game 3) also allowed Portland to come very close to beating Denver, despite the Nuggets overachieving wildly from behind the arc — they converted over 50 percent of their three-point attempts.
Damian Lillard
Superstar Damian Lillard is unstoppable.
In the first three games of the series, he amassed 34, 42, and 37 points.
Lillard likes operating in the pick-and-roll. He helps explain why the Trail Blazers are producing the second-most PPP (points per possession) on pick-and-roll for the ball-handler plays in the postseason.
But Portland also won Game 4 despite his lack of scoring.
He draws so much attention to himself — because of the relentless threat that he poses as a scorer — that he is able to locate teammates.
Just saying that Lillard locates teammates is misleading and simplistic, though. He makes teammates be open by moving in order to manipulate the defense. Then, he finds them.
The whole start-to-finish of the assists that he accrues is a product of his high-level court vision.
Support For Lillard
Besides Nurkic, Lillard finds considerable offensive support from CJ McCollum.
McCollum, in the regular season, was Portland’s second-leading scorer with 23.1 points per game.
He is a high-volume and efficient three-point shooter. From behind the arc, he complements the scoring prowess of guys like Nurkic, who are more likely to attack inside.
McCollum is another reason why Portland’s PPP in the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type is so high.
Denver’s Supporting Cast
For Portland, Lillard is the guy who can score at will and score on his own.
With his vision, his handles, and his overall skillset on offense, he ranks only behind Jayson Tatum and James Harden in points per game in isolation plays in both the regular season and the postseason.
One reason why I don’t like the Nuggets’ offense is that they lack consistent scorers who can support Jokic.
They need this support for Jokic because of the way Portland has adjusted on defense.
On defense, Portland is hitting Jokic with more double teams. The Trail Blazers are taking away driving and passing lanes that had previously been available to Jokic and to fellow offensive threat Michael Porter Jr.
As a result of these adjustments, Jokic and Porter Jr. combined for only 19 points and one assist in Game 4.
Denver mustered 95 points against Portland’s supposedly hapless defense.
With star Jamal Murray injured, the Nuggets need someone else to step up.
Normally, this additional guy would be Will Barton, Denver’s fourth-leading scorer in the regular season after Jokic, Porter Jr., and Murray.
But Barton is still injured.
The Verdict
With Nurkic plus the tactical reinforcement in its interior defense, Portland has the answers to limit Denver’s Jokic- and Porter-led inside attack.
On offense, Nurkic can help exploit the Nuggets’ porous rim protection. Lillard, a top-level isolation and pick-and-roll scorer, will amass points by himself and by finding teammates.
McCollum provides another boost to the Portland offense, a demonstrably consistent element of scoring support that Denver lacks without Murray or Barton.
Best Bet: Trail Blazers +2 at -108 with Heritage
