Daily Upset Alert: NBA Underdog Picks.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Tuesday, May 25, 2021 at 10:30 p.m. ET at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
The Defense of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George
A significant reason why oddsmakers have the Clippers favored is the reputedly strong perimeter defending and overall defensive abilities of both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
To be fair, both players have done a lot in recent years to earn their reputations as strong defenders.
But we are focused on the here and now: for tonight’s game, it doesn’t matter what Kawhi and PG did in previous years. What matters is their most recent form.
As measured by defensive rating, Kawhi in 2020-2021 is suffering his worst performance as a defender in his career. The same can nearly be said of Paul George: this is his second-worst season in terms of defensive rating.
Their poor defending was apparent in their Game 1 loss to Dallas and it can likewise be measured by defensive rating.
The poor defending of Kawhi and George is not exclusive to themselves. It’s just as important to recognize the struggles that the Clippers team had in trying to account for the weapons that the Dallas offense has to offer.
Luka Doncic
Dallas won despite Luka Doncic failing to convert any fourth-quarter shots. He’s proven repeatedly, though, that he can be clutch when the game is on the line, when his team needs him in order to win.
The Mavericks were able to win without Luka’s fourth-quarter heroics partly because of Doncic’s superb level of productivity through three quarters.
Heading into the fourth quarter, Doncic had 30 points. This output is to be expected from Doncic because, during the regular season, he averaged 30 points — to go along with 11 assists — in three games against the Clippers.
I expect another strong performance from Doncic tonight.
The Clippers have seen him multiple times — with inferior defensive versions of Kawhi and George, no less — and they regularly fail to limit him.
They’ve tried to defend him with their smallest defenders as well as with their biggest. They’ve dropped back, they’ve switched, they’ve played more aggressively. Simply stated, they cannot stop Luka.
Teammates
When Luka gets going, the Clippers are able to get the ball out of his hands by trapping him.
With his strong awareness as an able distributor, Doncic is able to find teammates, who then take advantage of playing 4-on-3 basketball.
Given the advantages that they had as a result of the attention that Doncic drew for himself as well as his distribution, the numbers that they produced in Game.1 cannot be considered flukish.
Dorian Finney-Smith, for example, was 4-for-5 from beyond the arc.
While this conversion rate exceeded his season average, all five of his three-point attempts were either open or wide open.
That is, he attempted all five of his three-pointers when the nearest defender was at least four feet removed from him.
One difference that I do expect in Game 2 is that Kristaps Porzingis should be stronger.
He played, but not well, as he’s still reestablishing himself after suffering recent injury troubles.
Last year, he averaged 23.7 points in Dallas’ series against the Clippers. He improved strongly after Game 1.
Porzingis is a characteristically strong three-point shooter who uses the threat that he poses beyond the arc to help space the floor.
Dallas’ Perimeter Defense
Schematically, Dallas wants to limit opposing field goal attempts near the basket.
Its perimeter defense also has to be good enough.
Later in the regular season, the Mavericks gained stronger form.
They beat a number of top-seeded playoff teams not just with offense, but with defense that was good enough.
On April 5, they defeated the Jazz. On April 8, the Bucks. On May 6, the Nets. They limited the Jazz and Bucks to 103 and 101 points, respectively. They held the Nets to 109 points.
Tellingly, they limited all of those teams to three-point conversion rates below their season average.
Dallas amassed similar defensive achievements in two wins out of three regular season games against the Clippers.
The Verdict
Luka and company — not excluding a hopeful Porzingis — will flourish against L.A.’s clueless defense spearheaded by two well-reputed but more recently vulnerable defenders.
Defensively, Dallas’ perimeter defense has repeatedly and lately proven itself good enough against top three-point shooting teams as well as against the Clippers.
Best Bet: Mavericks +6 at -106 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Tuesday, May 25, 2021 at 10:30 p.m. ET at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
The Defense of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George
A significant reason why oddsmakers have the Clippers favored is the reputedly strong perimeter defending and overall defensive abilities of both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
To be fair, both players have done a lot in recent years to earn their reputations as strong defenders.
But we are focused on the here and now: for tonight’s game, it doesn’t matter what Kawhi and PG did in previous years. What matters is their most recent form.
As measured by defensive rating, Kawhi in 2020-2021 is suffering his worst performance as a defender in his career. The same can nearly be said of Paul George: this is his second-worst season in terms of defensive rating.
Their poor defending was apparent in their Game 1 loss to Dallas and it can likewise be measured by defensive rating.
The poor defending of Kawhi and George is not exclusive to themselves. It’s just as important to recognize the struggles that the Clippers team had in trying to account for the weapons that the Dallas offense has to offer.
Luka Doncic
Dallas won despite Luka Doncic failing to convert any fourth-quarter shots. He’s proven repeatedly, though, that he can be clutch when the game is on the line, when his team needs him in order to win.
The Mavericks were able to win without Luka’s fourth-quarter heroics partly because of Doncic’s superb level of productivity through three quarters.
Heading into the fourth quarter, Doncic had 30 points. This output is to be expected from Doncic because, during the regular season, he averaged 30 points — to go along with 11 assists — in three games against the Clippers.
I expect another strong performance from Doncic tonight.
The Clippers have seen him multiple times — with inferior defensive versions of Kawhi and George, no less — and they regularly fail to limit him.
They’ve tried to defend him with their smallest defenders as well as with their biggest. They’ve dropped back, they’ve switched, they’ve played more aggressively. Simply stated, they cannot stop Luka.
Teammates
When Luka gets going, the Clippers are able to get the ball out of his hands by trapping him.
With his strong awareness as an able distributor, Doncic is able to find teammates, who then take advantage of playing 4-on-3 basketball.
Given the advantages that they had as a result of the attention that Doncic drew for himself as well as his distribution, the numbers that they produced in Game.1 cannot be considered flukish.
Dorian Finney-Smith, for example, was 4-for-5 from beyond the arc.
While this conversion rate exceeded his season average, all five of his three-point attempts were either open or wide open.
That is, he attempted all five of his three-pointers when the nearest defender was at least four feet removed from him.
One difference that I do expect in Game 2 is that Kristaps Porzingis should be stronger.
He played, but not well, as he’s still reestablishing himself after suffering recent injury troubles.
Last year, he averaged 23.7 points in Dallas’ series against the Clippers. He improved strongly after Game 1.
Porzingis is a characteristically strong three-point shooter who uses the threat that he poses beyond the arc to help space the floor.
Dallas’ Perimeter Defense
Schematically, Dallas wants to limit opposing field goal attempts near the basket.
Its perimeter defense also has to be good enough.
Later in the regular season, the Mavericks gained stronger form.
They beat a number of top-seeded playoff teams not just with offense, but with defense that was good enough.
On April 5, they defeated the Jazz. On April 8, the Bucks. On May 6, the Nets. They limited the Jazz and Bucks to 103 and 101 points, respectively. They held the Nets to 109 points.
Tellingly, they limited all of those teams to three-point conversion rates below their season average.
Dallas amassed similar defensive achievements in two wins out of three regular season games against the Clippers.
The Verdict
Luka and company — not excluding a hopeful Porzingis — will flourish against L.A.’s clueless defense spearheaded by two well-reputed but more recently vulnerable defenders.
Defensively, Dallas’ perimeter defense has repeatedly and lately proven itself good enough against top three-point shooting teams as well as against the Clippers.
Best Bet: Mavericks +6 at -106 with BetOnline
