Daily Upset Alert: NBA Underdog Picks
Charlotte Hornets vs. Indiana Pacers
Tuesday, May 18, 2021 at 6:#0 p.m. ET (TNT) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis
Missing Myles Turner
Before his toe injury, Myles Turner was a part of Defensive Player of the Year conversations.
He was leading the league in blocks per game, dwarfing perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert in the category.
Without Turner, Indiana’s interior defense has grown more vulnerable and weaker to attack.
Since Turner’s absence has began, the Pacers are allowing even more field goal attempts within five feet of the basket than any other team.
Other teams are regularly able to attack the Pacer interior defense and to be efficient in doing so.
Variety Is Not Always A Good Thing
Often times, it is a good thing when coaches switch things up.
Switching things up can make a team less predictable, harder to figure out, and harder to prepare for.
But in the case of Indiana, switching things up reflects a fundamental inability to be comfortable with any kind of defensive scheme.
Stated differently, the Pacers try too hard to be unpredictable because they want a lack of predictability to make up for a lack of defensive quality.
This variety is evident in Indiana’s proclivity to switch between man and zone sometimes even in the same possession.
The Pacers run a lot of zone, sometimes alternating between 2-3 and 3-2 versions.
But zone defense is not helping Indiana’s cause: the Pacers have played the third-highest number of possessions in zone defense, but of the 23 teams that have ran at least 100 possessions in zone, they rank 18th in limiting opposing PPP.
Partly because of their struggles in zone, but more fundamentally because they cannot find things that work on defense, the Pacers have dropped to 25th in scoring defense.
Why Missing Turner Matters Tonight
Charlotte loves to drive inside where it attempts the eighth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Terry Rozier and LaMelo Ball enjoy driving the most. They both drive more than 10 times per game.
While Rozier is more efficient, Ball is more effective at finding teammates, as evident in the latter’s higher assist rate.
Without Turner, Indiana lacks the weaponry to contain the likes of Rozier and Ball.
I also really like PJ Washington. Washington can space the floor as someone who’s converting 38.6 percent of his three-point opportunities.
He is also quick and able to beat slower-footed defenders like his 250-pound Pacer counterpart tonight, Goga Bitadze, off the dribble.
Why Indiana’s Bad Zone Defense Matters Tonight
Indiana’s zone defense creates a unique advantage for its opponent tonight because the Hornets themselves love to play zone.
They easily have played the most possessions in zone. Therefore, they are arguably more familiar than any other team with zone defense and they must know how to attack it.
Of course, less familiar teams are able to attack the Pacer zone defense.
It’s easy when Pacer defenders fail to communicate with each other — partly because individual players remain unsure as to which kind of defense they’re supposed to be running.
Sometimes a Pacer defender will expect a cut and an opposing player will, instead, fade behind the arc. A lot of gaffes happen when the Pacers play in zone.
Pacer Offense vs. Hornet Defense
Indiana will be hampered by leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon’s struggles with health.
Brogdon has a higher usage rate than any Hornet player. So the Pacers depend significantly on Brogdon’s production.
They need his ability to create offense, to drive inside, and to distribute.
He will be a game-time decision, however, with a pesky hamstring injury.
In contrast, the Hornets have their best lineup available — as measured by PPP -- with Ball, Devonte' Graham and Rozier.
Besides having an injury-plagued Brogdon, the Pacers will struggle because they face a competent zone defense.
Actually, when in zone, the Hornets rank third-best at limiting opposing PPP, compared with other teams that have played at least 100 possessions in zone.
Best Bet: Hornets +3 at -108 with Heritage
Charlotte Hornets vs. Indiana Pacers
Tuesday, May 18, 2021 at 6:#0 p.m. ET (TNT) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis
Missing Myles Turner
Before his toe injury, Myles Turner was a part of Defensive Player of the Year conversations.
He was leading the league in blocks per game, dwarfing perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert in the category.
Without Turner, Indiana’s interior defense has grown more vulnerable and weaker to attack.
Since Turner’s absence has began, the Pacers are allowing even more field goal attempts within five feet of the basket than any other team.
Other teams are regularly able to attack the Pacer interior defense and to be efficient in doing so.
Variety Is Not Always A Good Thing
Often times, it is a good thing when coaches switch things up.
Switching things up can make a team less predictable, harder to figure out, and harder to prepare for.
But in the case of Indiana, switching things up reflects a fundamental inability to be comfortable with any kind of defensive scheme.
Stated differently, the Pacers try too hard to be unpredictable because they want a lack of predictability to make up for a lack of defensive quality.
This variety is evident in Indiana’s proclivity to switch between man and zone sometimes even in the same possession.
The Pacers run a lot of zone, sometimes alternating between 2-3 and 3-2 versions.
But zone defense is not helping Indiana’s cause: the Pacers have played the third-highest number of possessions in zone defense, but of the 23 teams that have ran at least 100 possessions in zone, they rank 18th in limiting opposing PPP.
Partly because of their struggles in zone, but more fundamentally because they cannot find things that work on defense, the Pacers have dropped to 25th in scoring defense.
Why Missing Turner Matters Tonight
Charlotte loves to drive inside where it attempts the eighth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Terry Rozier and LaMelo Ball enjoy driving the most. They both drive more than 10 times per game.
While Rozier is more efficient, Ball is more effective at finding teammates, as evident in the latter’s higher assist rate.
Without Turner, Indiana lacks the weaponry to contain the likes of Rozier and Ball.
I also really like PJ Washington. Washington can space the floor as someone who’s converting 38.6 percent of his three-point opportunities.
He is also quick and able to beat slower-footed defenders like his 250-pound Pacer counterpart tonight, Goga Bitadze, off the dribble.
Why Indiana’s Bad Zone Defense Matters Tonight
Indiana’s zone defense creates a unique advantage for its opponent tonight because the Hornets themselves love to play zone.
They easily have played the most possessions in zone. Therefore, they are arguably more familiar than any other team with zone defense and they must know how to attack it.
Of course, less familiar teams are able to attack the Pacer zone defense.
It’s easy when Pacer defenders fail to communicate with each other — partly because individual players remain unsure as to which kind of defense they’re supposed to be running.
Sometimes a Pacer defender will expect a cut and an opposing player will, instead, fade behind the arc. A lot of gaffes happen when the Pacers play in zone.
Pacer Offense vs. Hornet Defense
Indiana will be hampered by leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon’s struggles with health.
Brogdon has a higher usage rate than any Hornet player. So the Pacers depend significantly on Brogdon’s production.
They need his ability to create offense, to drive inside, and to distribute.
He will be a game-time decision, however, with a pesky hamstring injury.
In contrast, the Hornets have their best lineup available — as measured by PPP -- with Ball, Devonte' Graham and Rozier.
Besides having an injury-plagued Brogdon, the Pacers will struggle because they face a competent zone defense.
Actually, when in zone, the Hornets rank third-best at limiting opposing PPP, compared with other teams that have played at least 100 possessions in zone.
Best Bet: Hornets +3 at -108 with Heritage
